A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

CINE-SYS: aplicación web para una comunidad virtual de cine

Este proyecto es la realización de una aplicación web para una comunidad virtual de cine, cuyo objetivo es crear un punto de encuentro entre todos los usuarios que visiten la web.

Splenic palpation for the evaluation of morbidity due to schistosomiasis mansoni

This study was undertaken to determine the accuracy of splenic palpation for the diagnosis of splenomegaly, and to determine whether the frequency of individuals with a palpable spleen in an endemic area can be considered as an index of morbidity of schistosomiasis. For the clinical diagnosis of splenomegaly, two criteria have been tested: (A) presence of a palpable spleen and (B) presence of a palpable spleen whose border could be felt more than 4 cm below the costal margin. In an area of high prevalence of the disease (66.3%) 285 individuals aged 18 years or more have been submitted to abdominal ultrasonography and physical examination. Splenomegaly was defined as a splenic length greater than 120 mm by ultrasound and the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of criterion A were 72.2%, 90.5%, 35.1% and 97.8%. The values for criterion B were 27.8%, 98%, 50% and 95%, respectively. In an non endemic area, 517 individuals were submitted to the same protocol and 22 individuals had a palpable spleen, but no patient fulfilled criterion B for splenomegaly, and only one met the ultrasonographic criterion for splenomegaly. The authors concluded that abdominal palpation is a poor method for the diagnosis of splenomegaly.

Isolated mediastinal necrotizing granulomatous lymphadenopathy due to cat-scratch disease.

We report a patient suffering from cat-scratch disease limited to mediastinal lymphadenitis. Although rare, cat-scratch disease should be considered in the differential diagnosis of mediastinal lymphadenitis, especially when patients were exposed to cats.

Expansion of intraocular gas bubbles due to altitude: do meteorological factors play a role?

BACKGROUND: Intraocular gas bubbles expand as patients move up to higher altitude. This may cause an acute intraocular pressure (IOP) rise with associated vascular obstructions and visual loss. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two pseudophakic patients underwent a pars plana vitrectomy and 23% SF6 gas tamponade for a pseudophakic retinal detachment. During the immediate post-operative phase, the patients travelled daily up to their domicile, which was situated approximately 600 m higher than the level where they had been operated on. These travels were always without any pain or visual loss. However 1 week after surgery both patients developed severe ocular pain, and one patient had complete temporary loss of vision after ascending to altitude levels, which had previously presented no problem. Both episodes occurred in parallel with a change in barometric pressure. RESULTS: Treatment with acetazolamide reduced the increased IOP to normal levels, and visual acuity recovered. CONCLUSIONS: Although the post-operative size of an intraocular gas bubble decreases progressively over time, problems with bubble expansion may still occur even at a late stage if meteorological factors, that may increase the bubble size, change.

Association of Lutzomyia columbiana (Diptera: Psychodidae) with a Leishmaniasis Focus in Colombia Due to Species of the Leishmania mexicana Complex

In Colombia, Leishmania mexicana has a scattered geographical distribution and no sand fly vectors have been associated with its transmission. During the present study, the anthropophilic sand fly Lutzomyia columbiana was found to be the only species collected using diverse methods, in a small focus of Le. mexicana in the municipality of Samaniego, SW Colombia. Ecological data indicate that this sand fly species is present in both peri and intradomestic habitats, where it readily bites man. Further evidence comes from experimental itnfections of wild-caught Lu. columbiana with Le. mexicana after feeding on itnfected hamsters. Based on these results, it is suggested that this sand fly is the most likely vector in the study area, suggesting the existence of a previously unknown sand fly-parasite association.

Are virtual planning and guided surgery for head and neck reconstruction economically viable?

PURPOSE: Virtual planning and guided surgery with or without prebent or milled plates are becoming more and more common for mandibular reconstruction with fibular free flaps (FFFs). Although this excellent surgical option is being used more widely, the question of the additional cost of planning and cutting-guide production has to be discussed. In capped payment systems such additional costs have to be offset by other savings if there are no special provisions for extra funding. Our study was designed to determine whether using virtual planning and guided surgery resulted in time saved during surgery and whether this time gain resulted in self-funding of such planning through the time saved. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All consecutive cases of FFF surgery were evaluated during a 2-year period. Institutional data were used to determine the price of 1 minute of operative time. The time for fibula molding, plate adaptation, and insetting was recorded. RESULTS: During the defined period, we performed 20 mandibular reconstructions using FFFs, 9 with virtual planning and guided surgery and 11 freehand cases. One minute of operative time was calculated to cost US $47.50. Multiplying this number by the time saved, we found that the additional cost of virtual planning was reduced from US $5,098 to US $1,231.50 with a prebent plate and from US $6,980 to US $3,113.50 for a milled plate. CONCLUSIONS: Even in capped health care systems, virtual planning and guided surgery including prebent or milled plates are financially viable.

Sensitivity of Lymph Node Aspiration in Localized Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Due to Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis

Twenty nine patients with localized cutaneous leishmaniasis had lymph node and skin ulcer aspirations for culture of Leishmania with the modified Marzochi´s vacuum aspiratory technique. Sensitivity of lymph node aspiration was 58.6% and 34.5% for skin ulcer aspiration (P=0.06). Combined sensitivity of the two methods was 79.3%. There was no agreement between methods (Kappa Index = -0.084; CI95% -0,45; 0,28) showing the potential complementary roles in diagnostic approach.

Fixed rings and strictures in Eosinophilic Esophagitis develop due to continuing inflammation over time

Background and Aims: Two distinct e ndoscopic phenotypes of E osinophilic Esophagitis (EoE) h ave been identified: t he inflammatory (IP) a nd the stenosing (SP) p henotype. I t is not known whether these EoE-associated phenotypes are reflective of different phases during disease course. We aimed to assess the phenotype a t initial EoE p resentation and d iagnosis and to evaluate if SP increases over time. Methods: R etrospective a nalysis of t he Swiss EoE Database (SEED) extended b y a review of p atients charts, endoscopy and pathology records. Results: F orty-four E oE p atients were a nalyzed (33 males, mean age at index visit 41 ± 14 years, all Caucasians). Median follow-up t ime was 3.1 years (IQR 1-4, r ange 1 -18 years). Median diagnostic delay w as 5 y ears (IQR 2-16, range 0-34 years). A t first diagnosis, 3 2% ( 14/44) o f EoE patients h ad already presented w ith a stenosis. T he mean d iameter o f the stenoses w as 1 0 ± 2 mm, and the mean length was 2 .8 ± 2 .9 cm. Peak e osinophil count d id n ot c hange over t ime (48 ± 39 eos/HPF at index visit vs. 59 ± 41 eos/HPF at end of follow-up, n=44). The risk of the presence of a stenosis at index visit was 0% f or a d isease duration of 0 -4 y ears, 37% f or a d isease duration between 5-10 years and 67% f or a d isease duration >10 years (p = 0.0035, trend test). Conclusions: T he frequency of e sophageal stenoses i s proportional to the disease duration, whereas the inflammatory activity does n ot s ignificantly c hange over t ime. O ur f indings underscore the necessity to reduce diagnostic delay in EoE and to control the underlying inflammatory processes to prevent esophageal remodeling.

Characterization of pupil responses to blue and red light stimuli in autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa due to NR2E3 mutation.

PURPOSE: We characterized the pupil responses that reflect rod, cone, and melanopsin function in a genetically homogeneous cohort of patients with autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa (adRP). METHODS: Nine patients with Gly56Arg mutation of the NR2E3 gene and 12 control subjects were studied. Pupil and subjective visual responses to red and blue light flashes over a 7 log-unit range of intensities were recorded under dark and light adaptation. The pupil responses were plotted against stimulus intensity to obtain red-light and blue-light response curves. RESULTS: In the dark-adapted blue-light stimulus condition, patients showed significantly higher threshold intensities for visual perception and for a pupil response compared to controls (P = 0.02 and P = 0.006, respectively). The rod-dependent, blue-light pupil responses decreased with disease progression. In contrast, the cone-dependent pupil responses (light-adapted red-light stimulus condition) did not differ between patients and controls. The difference in the retinal sensitivity to blue and red stimuli was the most sensitive parameter to detect photoreceptor dysfunction. Unexpectedly, the melanopsin-mediated pupil response was decreased in patients (P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Pupil responses of patients with NR2E3-associated adRP demonstrated reduced retinal sensitivity to dim blue light under dark adaptation, presumably reflecting decreased rod function. Rod-dependent pupil responses were quantifiable in all patients, including those with non-recordable scotopic electroretinogram, and correlated with the extent of clinical disease. Thus, the chromatic pupil light reflex can be used to monitor photoreceptor degeneration over a larger range of disease progression compared to standard electrophysiology.

Risk of death due to chronic chagasic cardiopathy

In this longitudinal study 5,710 people were included. The inclusion criteria were two positive serological results for Trypanosoma cruzi infection, 15 and 50 years old and no other demostrable diesease at the time of study. In the five year follow up 1,117 patients were lost. The follow up involved yearly evaluation of serology, clinical examination, X-ray of torax, and ECG, for 4,593 patients and 263 were contacted at home because they did not assist for their clinical consultant. Time average of follow up was 5.3 years. Eighty nine (1.5%) of the 4,593 patients died during the follow-up period, 63 (71%) by cardiac insufiency (CI) and 26 (29%) by severe ventricular arrithmias. Diagnosis of cardiomegaly was present in all the patients with diagnosis of CI and in 15 (5%) of the patients with diagnosis of arrithmias.The ECG alterations of these pacients show 61 right bundle brunch block (RBBB), associated or not with left anterior hemiblock (LAHB), 47 pathological Q wave and 70 primary repolarization alterations; 61 had polyfocal ventricular arrithmia. The death rate was similar in the sexes and was more frequent between 40 and 50 years of age. Information on 1,380 recuperated patients shows that 15 died with no previous symptoms and without medical assistance and were interpretate as sudden death. The latest ECG in three follow-up of these pacients indicates (before death) that only one had normal study and 14 presented 12 RBBB; 9 LAHB; 7 isolated ventricular arrithmia; 10 repolariz alterations; 2 patological Q wave, 10 patients of them with RBBB and repolariz alterations. In all the cases we had people between 35 and 43 years old, 9 men and 6 women. This study shows that in Chagas disease is possible to differenciate two risk groups. A low risk death group that have normal ECG and clinical evaluation during the follow up, and a high risk group associate ECG with RBBB and primary alterations of repolarization and/or inactivation zones with not anual clinical evaluation.

In vivo synergism of ceftobiprole and vancomycin against experimental endocarditis due to vancomycin-intermediate Staphylococcus aureus.

The efficacy of ceftobiprole combined with vancomycin was tested against two vancomycin-intermediate Staphylococcus aureus (VISA) strains, PC3 and Mu50, in rats with experimental endocarditis. Animals with infected aortic vegetations were treated for 3 days with doses simulating the kinetics after intravenous administration in humans of (i) the standard dose of ceftobiprole of 500 mg every 12 h (b.i.d.) (SD-ceftobiprole), (ii) a low dose of ceftobiprole of 250 mg b.i.d. (LD-ceftobiprole), (iii) a very low dose of ceftobiprole of 125 mg b.i.d. (VLD-ceftobiprole), (iv) SD-vancomycin of 1 g b.i.d., or (v) LD- or VLD-ceftobiprole combined with SD-vancomycin. Low dosages of ceftobiprole were purposely used to highlight positive drug interactions. Treatment with SD-ceftobiprole sterilized 12 of 14 (86%) and 10 of 13 (77%) vegetations infected with PC3 and Mu50, respectively (P < 0.001 versus controls). In comparison, LD-ceftobiprole sterilized 10 of 11 (91%) vegetations infected with PC3 (P < 0.01 versus controls) but only 3 of 12 (25%) vegetations infected with Mu50 (P > 0.05 versus controls). VLD-ceftobiprole and SD-vancomycin alone were ineffective against both strains (≤8% sterile vegetations). In contrast, the combination of VLD-ceftobiprole and SD-vancomycin sterilized 7 of 9 (78%) and 6 of 14 (43%) vegetations infected with PC3 and Mu50, respectively, and the combination of LD-ceftobiprole and SD-vancomycin sterilized 5 of 6 (83%) vegetations infected with Mu50 (P < 0.05 versus controls and monotherapy). Thus, ceftobiprole monotherapy simulating standard therapeutic doses was active against VISA experimental endocarditis. Moreover, subtherapeutic LD- and VLD-ceftobiprole synergized with ineffective vancomycin to restore efficacy. Hence, combining ceftobiprole with vancomycin broadens the therapeutic margin of these two compounds against VISA infections.

Action of pentoxifylline on experimental cutaneous leishmaniasis due to Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis

In the animal model of leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis there is a complex mechanism of the host-parasite interaction. The present study was performed to interfere with the inflammatory reaction to the parasites, through immune modulation. Female C5BL/6 isogenic mice were used, some of which were inoculated on the right ear and others on the right footpad with 3.10(6) stationary phase promastigotes of the MHOM/BR/PH8 strain of L. (L.) amazonensis, and were allocated in three groups: the first received pentoxifylline 8mg/kg every 12 h, since the first day; the second one received the same dose since the 40th day of infection and a control group that did not receive any treatment. All the ears excised were analyzed to determine the variation in weight between both ears and for histopathological analyses. A quantification of the parasites was done using the limiting dilution assay. A significant reduction of the number of parasites, was observed among the animals treated which had an accordingly significant reduction on the weight of the ears. Pentoxifylline reduced the macrophages propensity to vacuolation and induced a more effective destruction of the parasites by these cells. Moreover, the group that began the treatment later did not show the same effectiveness.

Entorn virtual d'aprenentatge per una escola de secundària

Implementarem un Entorn Virtual d’Aprenentatge (EVA) per a l'escola Arrels-Blanquerna de Badalona. Instal·larem un Moodle perquè els alumnes puguin reforçar els aprenentatges adquirits a les classes i realitzar activitats proporcionades pel docent. Farem servir les eines que proporciona GoogleApps per l’elaboració i modificació dels diferents documents que es facin servir, i per la comunicació a través de correu electrònic. Per últim, construirem una pàgina web amb el programari Joomla! que serà útil per penjar noticies relacionades amb el projecte eduCAT1x1 i com a punt d’enllaç amb les diferents plataformes.

Performance on a Virtual Reality Angled Laparoscope Task Correlates with Spatial Ability of Trainees

The aim of the present study was to investigate whether trainees' performance on a virtual reality angled laparoscope navigation task correlates with scores obtained on a validated conventional test of spatial ability. 56 participants of a surgery workshop performed an angled laparoscope navigation task on the Xitact LS 500 virtual reality Simulator. Performance parameters were correlated with the score of a validated paper-and-pencil test of spatial ability. Performance at the conventional spatial ability test significantly correlated with performance at the virtual reality task for overall task score (p < 0.001), task completion time (p < 0.001) and economy of movement (p = 0.035), not for endoscope travel speed (p = 0.947). In conclusion, trainees' performance in a standardized virtual reality camera navigation task correlates with their innate spatial ability. This VR session holds potential to serve as an assessment tool for trainees.