Risk, seasonality and the asymmetric behaviour of stock returns

For some time there has been a puzzle surrounding the seasonal behaviour of stock returns. This paper demonstrates that there is an asymmetric relationship between systematic risk and return across the different months of the year for both large and small firms. In the case of both large and small firms systematic risk appears to be priced in only two months of the year, January and April. During the other months no persistent relationship between systematic risk and return appears to exist. The paper also shows that when systematic risk is priced, the size of the systematic risk premium is higher for large firms than for small firms and varies significantly across the months of the year.

A two-factor model of the U.K. yield curve

I model the forward premium in the U.K. gilt-edged market over the period 1982–96 using a two-factor general equilibrium model of the term structure of interest rates. The model permits the decomposition of the forward premium into separate components representing interest rate expectations, the risk premia associated with each of the underlying factors, and terms capturing the direct impact of the variances of the factors on the shape of the forward curve.

Financial liberalization and dynamics of firm-level financing and investment decisions in the Southeast Asian countries

This thesis examines the dynamics of firm-level financing and investment decisions for six Southeast Asian countries. The study provides empirical evidence on the impacts of changes in the firm-level financing decisions during the period of financial liberalization by considering the debt and equity financing decisions of a set of non-financial firms. The empirical results show that firms in Indonesia, Pakistan, and South Korea have relatively faster speed of adjustment than other Southeast Asian countries to attain optimal debt and equity ratios in response to banking sector and stock market liberalization. In addition, contrary to widely held belief that firms adjust their financial ratios to industry levels, the results indicate that industry factors do not significantly impact on the speed of capital structure adjustments. This study also shows that non-linear estimation methods are more appropriate than linear estimation methods for capturing changes in capital structure. The empirical results also show that international stock market integration of these countries has significantly reduced the equity risk premium as well as the firm-level cost of equity capital. Thus stock market liberalization is associated with a decrease in the cost of equity capital of the firms. Developments in the securities markets infrastructure have also reduced the cost of equity capital. However, with increased integration there is the possibility of capital outflows from the emerging markets, which might reverse the pattern of decrease in cost of capital in these markets.

Control of soundness and mechanical properties in aluminium-silicon-magnesium alloys

Previously, specifications for mechanical properties of casting alloys were based on separately cast test bars. This practice provided consistently reproducible results; thus, any change in conditions was reflected in changes in the mechanical properties of the test coupons. These test specimens, however, did not necessarily reflect the actual mechanical properties of the castings they were supposed to represent'. Factors such as section thickness and casting configuration affect the solidification rate and soundness of the casting thereby raising or lowering its mechanical properties in comparison with separately cast test specimens. In the work now reported, casting shapes were developed to investigate the variations of section thickness, chemical analysis and heat treatment on the mechanical properties of a high strength Aluminium alloy under varying chilling conditions. In addition, an insight was sought into the behaviour of chills under more practical conditions. Finally, it was demonstrated that additional information could be derived from the radiographs which form an essential part of the quality control of premium quality castings. As a result of the work, it is now possible to select analysis and chilling conditions to optimize the as cast and the heat treated mechanical properties of Aluminum 7% Silicon 0.3% Magnesium alloy.

Automation, rationalisation and concentration : a case study in the British chemical industry

This thesis is based upon a case study of the adoption of digital, electronic, microprocessor-based control systems by Albright & Wilson Limited - a UK chemical producer. It offers an explanation of the company's changing technology policy between 1978 and 1981, by examining its past development, internal features and industrial environment. Part One of the thesis gives an industry-level analysis which relates the development of process control technology to changes in the economic requirements of production . The rapid diffusion of microcomputers and other microelectronic equipment in the chemical industry is found to be a response to general need to raise the efficiency of all processes, imposed by the economic recession following 1973. Part Two examines the impaot of these technical and eoonomic ohanges upon Albright & Wilson Limited. The company's slowness in adopting new control technology is explained by its long history in which trends are identified whlich produced theconservatism of the 1970s. By contrast, a study of Tenneco Incorporated, a much more successful adoptor of automating technology, is offered with an analysis of the new technology policy of adoption of such equipment which it imposed upon Albright & Wilson, following the latter's takeover by Tenneco in 1978. Some indications of the consequences by this new policy of widespread adoptions of microprocessor-based control equipment are derived from a study of the first Albright & Wilson plant to use such equipment. The thesis concludes that companies which fail to adopt rapidly the new control technology may not survive in the recessionary environment, the long- established British companies may lack the flexibility to make such necessary changes and that multi-national companies may have an important role jn the planned transfer and adoption of new production technology through their subsidiaries in the UK.

Unilever as a "multi-local" multinational 1945-1979

Explores the opportunities and threats to Unilever's global business in 1978 based on the commercial and political challenges faced by three of its subsidiaries, Lever Brothers in the United States, Hindustan Lever in India, and United Africa Company in West Africa. Management faced several problems: criticism of multinational companies, anti-trust legislation, expropriations, and rising competition from international and local rivals. Focuses on developing a new global strategy for a company that placed a premium on a consensual management style and local autonomy.

Earnings differences between Chinese and Indian wage earners, 1987-2004

This paper is one of the first comprehensive attempts to compare earnings in urban China and India over the recent period. While both economies have grown considerably, we illustrate significant cross-country differences in wage growth since the late 1980s. For this purpose, we make use of comparable datasets, estimate Mincer equations and perform Oaxaca–Blinder decompositions at the mean and at different points of the wage distribution. The initial wage differential in favor of Indian workers, observed in the middle and upper part of the distribution, partly disappears over time. While the 1980s Indian premium is mainly due to higher returns to education and experience, a combination of price and endowment effects explains why Chinese wages have caught up, especially since the mid-1990s. The price effect is only partly explained by the observed convergence in returns to education; the endowment effect is driven by faster increase in education levels in China and significantly accentuates the reversal of the wage gap in favor of this country for the first half of the wage distribution.

Ownership concentration:'Private benefits of control' and debt financing

Building on the ‘law and economics’ literature, this paper analyses corporate governance implications of debt financing in an environment where a dominant owner is able to extract ex ante ‘private benefits of control’. Ownership concentration may result in lower efficiency, measured as a ratio of a firm’s debt to investment, and this effect depends on the identity of the largest shareholder. Moreover, entrenched dominant shareholder(s) may be colluding with fixed-claim holders in extracting ‘control premium’. One of possible outcomes is a ‘crowding out’ of entrepreneurial firms from the debt market, and this is supported by evidence from the transition economies.

The role of pre-existing liquidity in determining pricing efficiency and liquidity gains following the introduction of SETSmm

In this paper we examine the impact that the new trading system SETSmm had on market quality measures such as firm value, liquidity and pricing efficiency. This system was introduced for mid-cap securities on the London Stock Exchange in 2003. We show that there is a small SETSmm return premium associated with the announcement that securities are to migrate to the new trading system. We find that migration to SETSmm also improves liquidity and pricing efficiency and these changes are related to the return premium. We also find that these gains are stronger for firms with high pre SETSmm liquidity and weaker for firms with low SETSmm liquidity.

Efficiency and the trading system:The case of SETSmm

This paper studies the impact that a change from a dealer system to a market-maker supported auction system has on market quality. We study the impact that the introduction of SETSmm at the London Stock Exchange had on firm value, price efficiency and liquidity. We discover a small SETSmm return premium associated with the announcement that securities are to migrate to the new trading system. Moreover, securities that migrate to SETSmm are characterized by improvements to liquidity and pricing efficiency. We find that these changes are related to the return premium.

Directly unproductive schooling:how country characteristics affect the impact of schooling on growth

The rapid rise in schooling in developing countries in recent decades has been dramatic. However, many cross-country regression analyses of the impact of schooling on economic growth find low and insignificant coefficients. This empirical 'puzzle' contrasts with theoretical arguments that schooling, through raising human capital, should raise income levels. This paper argues that poor results are to be expected when regression samples include countries that vary greatly in their ability to use schooling productively. Data on corruption, the black market premium on foreign exchange and the extent of the brain drain for developing countries are used as indicators of an economy's productive use of schooling. Regression analysis shows that the impact of secondary schooling on economic growth is substantially higher in countries that are adjudged to use schooling productivity.

The value of innovation:the interaction of competition, R&D and IP

This paper analyses market valuations of UK companies using a new data set of their R&D and IP activities (1989–2002). In contrast to previous studies, the analysis is conducted at the sectoral-level, where the sectors are based on the technological classification originating from Pavitt [Pavitt, K., 1984. Sectoral patterns of technical change. Research Policy 13, 343–373]. The first main result is that the valuation of R&D varies substantially across these sectors. Another important result is that, on average, firms that receive only UK patents tend to have no significant market premium. In direct contrast, patenting through the European Patent Office does raise market value, as does the registration of trade marks in the UK for most sectors. To explore these variations the paper links competitive conditions with the market valuation of innovation. Using profit persistence as a measure of competitive pressure, we find that the sectors that are the most competitive have the lowest market valuation of R&D. Furthermore, within the most competitive sector (‘science based’ manufacturing), firms with larger market shares (an inverse indicator of competitive pressure) also have higher R&D valuations, as well as some positive return to UK patents. We conclude that this evidence supports Schumpeter by finding higher returns to innovation in less than fully competitive markets and contradicts Arrow [Arrow, K., 1962. Economic welfare and the allocation of resources for invention. In: Nelson, R. (Ed.), The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity. Princeton University Press, Princeton], who argued that, with the existence of IP rights, competitive market structure provides higher incentives to innovate.

Relationships between flavour, lipid composition and antioxidants in organic, free-range and conventional chicken breasts from modelling

Consumers expect organic, free-range and corn-fed chicken to be nutritionally wholesome and have premium flavour characters. Interrelationships between flavour, fatty acids and antioxidants of retailed breasts were explored using simple correlations and chemometrics. Saturated fatty acid C16:0, and n-6 polyunsaturated C20:4 and C22:4 contents were correlated with lipid oxidation products (thiobarbituric acid reactive substances) and in partial least-squares regression (PLS1) with 32 high-resonance gas chromatography (flame ionization) flavour components (r2>0.90), and also linked (r2>0.80) to antioxidants (-tocopherol, glutathione and catalase). A further 10 high-resonance gas chromatography nitrogen phosphorus detector flavour components were correlated (r 2>0.85) with C18:3(n-3) content. Chicken character was correlated with C18:3(n-3), and C18:3(n-6) inversely with oily, off-flavour and lipid oxidation. Sweet, fruity and oily aromas were linked in PLS1 with 13 specific fatty acids (r2>0.6), and bland taste with total summed (six) fatty acid fractions (r2>0.81). Specific antioxidants were correlated with sweet, fruity and chicken aromas, and -tocopherol inversely with lipid oxidation. PLS2 confirmed relationships between fatty acid composition, antioxidants and the subsets of 32 and 10 flavour components. Clear relationships were thus observed between lipid and antioxidant compositions and flavour in chicken breast meat.

The role of pre-existing liquidity in determining price efficiency and liquidity gains following the introduction of SETSmm

In this paper we examine the impact that the new trading system SETSmm had on market quality measures such as firm value, liquidity and pricing efficiency. This system was introduced for mid-cap securities on the London Stock Exchange in 2003. We show that there is a small SETSmm return premium associated with the announcement that securities are to migrate to the new trading system. We find that migration to SETSmm also improves liquidity and pricing efficiency and these changes are related to the return premium. We also find that these gains are stronger for firms with high pre SETSmm liquidity and weaker for firms with low SETSmm liquidity. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

New York mark-ups on petroleum products

In this paper we analyse rigidities in the behaviour of the mark-up on regular, midgrade and premium varieties of petrol in the New York area using a set of weekly frequency data and a methodology that analyses the pricing process using deterministic and stochastic techniques. The results are consistent across methodologies and indicate that the speeds of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium mark-up differ across varieties of petrol with margins of the premium variety falling faster than they rise, contrary to the popular claim of welfare-decreasing asymmetries in price transmission. © 2012 The Authors. The Manchester School © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The University of Manchester.