Estimation on the mortality and disease burden attributed to selected risk factors in Shandong province [山东省主要危险因素的归因死亡和疾病负担分析]

Objective: To determine the major health related risk factors and provide evidence for policy-making,using health burden analysis on selected factors among general population from Shandong province. Methods: Based on data derived from the Third Death of Cause Sampling Survey in Shandong. Years of life lcrat(YLLs),yearS Iived with disability(YLDs)and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs) were calculated according to the GBD ethodology.Deaths and DALYs attributed to the selected risk factors were than estimated together with the PAF data from GBD 2001 study.The indirect method was employed to estimate the YLDs. Results: 51.09%of the total dearlls and 31.83%of the total DALYs from the Shandong population were resulted from the 19 selected risk factors.High blood pre.ure,smoking,low fruit and vegetable intake,aleohol consumption,indoor smoke from solid fuels,high cholesterol,urban air pollution, physical inactivity,overweight and obesity and unsafe injections in health care settings were identified as the top 10 risk faetors for mortality which together caused 50.21%of the total deaths.Alcohol use,smoking,high blood pressure,Low fruit and vegetable intake, indoor smoke from solid fuels, overweight and obesity,high cholesterol, physical inactivity,urban air pollution and iron-deficiency anemia were proved as the top 10 risk factors related to disease burden and were responsible for 29.04%of the total DALYs. Conclusion: Alcohol use.smoking and high blood pressure were determined as the major risk factors which influencing the health of residents in Shandong. The mortality and burden of disease could be reduced significantly if these major factors were effectively under control.

State convergence in the initialisation of the Sfinks stream cipher

Sfinks is a shift register based stream cipher designed for hardware implementation. The initialisation state update function is different from the state update function used for keystream generation. We demonstrate state convergence during the initialisation process, even though the individual components used in the initialisation are one-to-one. However, the combination of these components is not one-to-one.

Measuring bitrate and quality trade-off in a fast region-of-interest based video coding

Prevailing video adaptation solutions change the quality of the video uniformly throughout the whole frame in the bitrate adjustment process; while region-of-interest (ROI)-based solutions selectively retains the quality in the areas of the frame where the viewers are more likely to pay more attention to. ROI-based coding can improve perceptual quality and viewer satisfaction while trading off some bandwidth. However, there has been no comprehensive study to measure the bitrate vs. perceptual quality trade-off so far. The paper proposes an ROI detection scheme for videos, which is characterized with low computational complexity and robustness, and measures the bitrate vs. quality trade-off for ROI-based encoding using a state-of-the-art H.264/AVC encoder to justify the viability of this type of encoding method. The results from the subjective quality test reveal that ROI-based encoding achieves a significant perceptual quality improvement over the encoding with uniform quality at the cost of slightly more bits. Based on the bitrate measurements and subjective quality assessments, the bitrate and the perceptual quality estimation models for non-scalable ROI-based video coding (AVC) are developed, which are found to be similar to the models for scalable video coding (SVC).

Estimation of energy saving of commercial building by living wall and green facade in sub-tropical climate of Australia

This paper investigates energy saving potential of commercial building by living wall and green façade system using Envelope Thermal Transfer Value (ETTV) equation in Sub-tropical climate of Australia. Energy saving of four commercial buildings was quantified by applying living wall and green façade system to the west facing wall. A field experimental facility, from which temperature data of living wall system was collected, was used to quantify wall temperatures and heat gain under controlled conditions. The experimental parameters were accumulated with extensive data of existing commercial building to quantify energy saving. Based on temperature data of living wall system comprised of Australian native plants, equivalent temperature of living wall system has been computed. Then, shading coefficient of plants in green façade system has been included in mathematical equation and in graphical analysis. To minimize the air-conditioned load of commercial building, therefore to minimize the heat gain of commercial building, an analysis of building heat gain reduction by living wall and green façade system has been performed. Overall, cooling energy performance of commercial building before and after living wall and green façade system application has been examined. The quantified energy saving showed that only living wall system on opaque part of west facing wall can save 8-13 % of cooling energy consumption where as only green façade system on opaque part of west facing wall can save 9.5-18% cooling energy consumption of commercial building. Again, green façade system on fenestration system on west facing wall can save 28-35 % of cooling energy consumption where as combination of both living wall on opaque part of west facing wall and green façade on fenestration system on west facing wall can save 35-40% cooling energy consumption of commercial building in sub-tropical climate of Australia.

Current state of the application of infrared optical methods for assessing articular cartilage

This paper reviews the current state in the application of infrared methods, particularly mid-infrared (mid-IR) and near infrared (NIR), for the evaluation of the structural and functional integrity of articular cartilage. It is noted that while a considerable amount of research has been conducted with respect to tissue characterization using mid-IR, it is almost certain that full-thickness cartilage assessment is not feasible with this method. On the contrary, the relatively more considerable penetration capacity of NIR suggests that it is a suitable candidate for full-thickness cartilage evaluation. Nevertheless, significant research is still required to improve the specificity and clinical applicability of the method if we are going to be able to use it for distinguishing between functional and dysfunctional cartilage.

An aspect query language model based on query decomposition and high-order contextual term associations

In information retrieval (IR) research, more and more focus has been placed on optimizing a query language model by detecting and estimating the dependencies between the query and the observed terms occurring in the selected relevance feedback documents. In this paper, we propose a novel Aspect Language Modeling framework featuring term association acquisition, document segmentation, query decomposition, and an Aspect Model (AM) for parameter optimization. Through the proposed framework, we advance the theory and practice of applying high-order and context-sensitive term relationships to IR. We first decompose a query into subsets of query terms. Then we segment the relevance feedback documents into chunks using multiple sliding windows. Finally we discover the higher order term associations, that is, the terms in these chunks with high degree of association to the subsets of the query. In this process, we adopt an approach by combining the AM with the Association Rule (AR) mining. In our approach, the AM not only considers the subsets of a query as “hidden” states and estimates their prior distributions, but also evaluates the dependencies between the subsets of a query and the observed terms extracted from the chunks of feedback documents. The AR provides a reasonable initial estimation of the high-order term associations by discovering the associated rules from the document chunks. Experimental results on various TREC collections verify the effectiveness of our approach, which significantly outperforms a baseline language model and two state-of-the-art query language models namely the Relevance Model and the Information Flow model

PySSM : a Python module for Bayesian inference of linear Gaussian state space models

PySSM is a Python package that has been developed for the analysis of time series using linear Gaussian state space models (SSM). PySSM is easy to use; models can be set up quickly and efficiently and a variety of different settings are available to the user. It also takes advantage of scientific libraries Numpy and Scipy and other high level features of the Python language. PySSM is also used as a platform for interfacing between optimised and parallelised Fortran routines. These Fortran routines heavily utilise Basic Linear Algebra (BLAS) and Linear Algebra Package (LAPACK) functions for maximum performance. PySSM contains classes for filtering, classical smoothing as well as simulation smoothing.

Change Point Estimation in Monitoring Survival Time

Precise identification of the time when a change in a hospital outcome has occurred enables clinical experts to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for survival time of a clinical procedure in the presence of patient mix in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step change in the mean survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including location and magnitude of changes and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM control charts for different magnitude scenarios. The proposed estimator shows a better performance where a longer follow-up period, censoring time, is applied. In comparison with the alternative built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the Bayesian estimator. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

Volume estimation from multiplanar 2D ultrasound images using a remote electromagnetic position and orientation sensor

A system is described for calculating volume from a sequence of multiplanar 2D ultrasound images. Ultrasound images are captured using a video digitising card (Hauppauge Win/TV card) installed in a personal computer, and regions of interest transformed into 3D space using position and orientation data obtained from an electromagnetic device (Polbemus, Fastrak). The accuracy of the system was assessed by scanning 10 water filled balloons (13-141 ml), 10 kidneys (147  200 ml) and 16 fetal livers (8  37 ml) in water using an Acuson 128XP/10 (5 MHz curvilinear probe). Volume was calculated using the ellipsoid, planimetry, tetrahedral and ray tracing methods and compared with the actual volume measured by weighing (balloons) and water displacement (kidneys and livers). The mean percentage error for the ray tracing method was 0.9 ± 2.4%, 2.7 ± 2.3%, 6.6 ± 5.4% for balloons, kidneys and livers, respectively. So far the system has been used clinically to scan fetal livers and lungs, neonate brain ventricles and adult prostate glands.

Preliminary Research Findings : Volunteers in Queensland State Government

As 2001 was the International Year of the Volunteer as it seemed timely to look at the legal, social and political frameworks which provide for the long term growth of volunteers. The focus of this research is on the nature and extent of volunteers in the Queensland State Government. The social capital debate (expanded by Robert Putnam in 1995) is about citizens’ participation in extracurricular activities and has been extended to mean a collective intelligence – a capacity as a people to create the society we want. The volunteer phenomenon has been used to indicate social and ethical concern.

In vitro estimation of foetal liver volume using ultrasound, x-ray computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging

Sixteen formalin-fixed foetal livers were scanned in vitro using a new system for estimating volume from a sequence of multiplanar 2D ultrasound images. Three different scan techniques were used (radial, parallel and slanted) and four volume estimation algorithms (ellipsoid, planimetry, tetrahedral and ray tracing). Actual liver volumes were measured by water displacement. Twelve of the sixteen livers also received x-ray computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance (MR) scans and the volumes were calculated using voxel counting and planimetry. The percentage accuracy (mean ± SD) was 5.3 ± 4.7%, −3.1 ± 9.6% and −0.03 ± 9.7% for ultrasound (radial scans, ray volumes), MR and CT (voxel counting) respectively. The new system may be useful for accurately estimating foetal liver volume in utero.

A novel CDVM based high-voltage converter using low power solid-state switches and a tuned resonant circuit designed for pulsed power applications

A novel concept of producing high dc voltage for pulsed-power applications is proposed in this paper. The topology consists of an LC resonant circuit supplied through a tuned alternating waveform that is produced by an inverter. The control scheme is based on the detection of variations in the resonant frequency and adjustment of the switching signal patterns for the inverter to produce a square waveform with exactly the same frequencies. Therefore the capacitor voltage oscillates divergently with an increasing amplitude. A simple one-stage capacitor-diode voltage multiplier (CDVM) connected to the resonant capacitor then rectifies the alternating voltage and gives a dc level equal to twice the input voltage amplitude. The produced high voltage appears then in the form of high-voltage pulses across the load. A basic model is simulated by Simulink platform of MATLAB and the results are included in the paper.

Something rotten in the state of Minnesota: or the morality of backwoodsmen: 'A Simple Plan'

'A Simple Plan' is a deceptively complex and multilayered film, combining elements of Celtic mythology with the morality play and the windfall fantasy gone disastrously wrong. Despite its blending of realism and heavyhanded symbolism, and its abundant trans-textual gestures, 'A Simple Plan' is in many ways defiantly not a 90s movie: its leading characters are fashionably flawed, but they are neither sensitive, nor honourable, nor heroic; there are no startling special effects or intricate timeshifts; and it desperately gives the impression of depth, of being emphatically more than mere superficial excess. At a stretch it almost appears to be a throwback to the 1930s Production Code emphasis on the role of cinema in moral instruction; while good hardly triumphs over evil, venality is painfully and emphatically punished. But in other ways it is a quintessential late 90s film: an American/British/Japanese/German/French co-production, 'A Simple Plan' acts most palpably as a commentary on the moral, economic and social condition of the United States at the end of the American century.

An estimation of crash risks using a log-linear model and the induced exposure technique

Prevention and safety promotion programmes. Traditionally, in-depth investigations of crash risks are conducted using exposure controlled study or case-control methodology. However, these studies need either observational data for control cases or exogenous exposure data like vehicle-kilometres travel, entry flow or product of conflicting flow for a particular traffic location, or a traffic site. These data are not readily available and often require extensive data collection effort on a system-wide basis. Aim: The objective of this research is to propose an alternative methodology to investigate crash risks of a road user group in different circumstances using readily available traffic police crash data. Methods: This study employs a combination of a log-linear model and the quasi-induced exposure technique to estimate crash risks of a road user group. While the log-linear model reveals the significant interactions and thus the prevalence of crashes of a road user group under various sets of traffic, environmental and roadway factors, the quasi-induced exposure technique estimates relative exposure of that road user in the same set of explanatory variables. Therefore, the combination of these two techniques provides relative measures of crash risks under various influences of roadway, environmental and traffic conditions. The proposed methodology has been illustrated using Brisbane motorcycle crash data of five years. Results: Interpretations of results on different combination of interactive factors show that the poor conspicuity of motorcycles is a predominant cause of motorcycle crashes. Inability of other drivers to correctly judge the speed and distance of an oncoming motorcyclist is also evident in right-of-way violation motorcycle crashes at intersections. Discussion and Conclusions: The combination of a log-linear model and the induced exposure technique is a promising methodology and can be applied to better estimate crash risks of other road users. This study also highlights the importance of considering interaction effects to better understand hazardous situations. A further study on the comparison between the proposed methodology and case-control method would be useful.

Accuracy of rate estimation using relaxed-clock models with a critical focus on the early metazoan radiation

In recent years, a number of phylogenetic methods have been developed for estimating molecular rates and divergence dates under models that relax the molecular clock constraint by allowing rate change throughout the tree. These methods are being used with increasing frequency, but there have been few studies into their accuracy. We tested the accuracy of several relaxed-clock methods (penalized likelihood and Bayesian inference using various models of rate change) using nucleotide sequences simulated on a nine-taxon tree. When the sequences evolved with a constant rate, the methods were able to infer rates accurately, but estimates were more precise when a molecular clock was assumed. When the sequences evolved under a model of autocorrelated rate change, rates were accurately estimated using penalized likelihood and by Bayesian inference using lognormal and exponential models of rate change, while other models did not perform as well. When the sequences evolved under a model of uncorrelated rate change, only Bayesian inference using an exponential rate model performed well. Collectively, the results provide a strong recommendation for using the exponential model of rate change if a conservative approach to divergence time estimation is required. A case study is presented in which we use a simulation-based approach to examine the hypothesis of elevated rates in the Cambrian period, and it is found that these high rate estimates might be an artifact of the rate estimation method. If this bias is present, then the ages of metazoan divergences would be systematically underestimated. The results of this study have implications for studies of molecular rates and divergence dates.