How to deal with macroeconomic imbalances? CEPS Special Report No. 69, 23 November 2012

Lax financial conditions can foster credit booms. The global credit boom of the last decade led to large capital flows across the world, including large movements of resources from the northern countries of the euro area towards the southern part. Since the start of the crisis and more markedly after 2009, these flows have suddenly stopped, creating severe adjustment pressure. At this point the common monetary policy can only try to mitigate the unavoidable adjustment by maintaining overall financial stability. The challenge is to strike a delicate balance between providing liquidity for solvent institutions while keeping the overall pressure on for a rapid correction of the imbalances.

Variation in dynamic elastic shear modulus of sandstone upon fluid saturation and substitution

Experimental acoustic measurements on sandstone rocks at both sonic and ultrasonic frequencies show that fluid saturation can cause a noticeable change in both the dynamic bulk and shear elastic moduli of sandstones. We observed that the change in dynamic shear modulus upon fluid saturation is highly dependent on the type of saturant, its viscosity, rock microstructure, and applied pressures. Frequency dispersion has some influence on dynamic elastic moduli too, but its effect is limited to the ultrasonic frequency ranges and above. We propose that viscous coupling, reduction in free surface energy, and, to a limited extent, frequency dispersion due to both local and global flow are the main mechanisms responsible for the change in dynamic shear elastic modulus upon fluid saturation and substitution, and we quantify influences.

Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes

The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is an important part of the earth's climate system. Previous research has shown large uncertainties in simulating future changes in this critical system. The simulated THC response to idealized freshwater perturbations and the associated climate changes have been intercompared as an activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Paleo-Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP/PMIP) committees. This intercomparison among models ranging from the earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) to the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) seeks to document and improve understanding of the causes of the wide variations in the modeled THC response. The robustness of particular simulation features has been evaluated across the model results. In response to 0.1-Sv (1 Sv equivalent to 10(6) ms(3) s(-1)) freshwater input in the northern North Atlantic, the multimodel ensemble mean THC weakens by 30% after 100 yr. All models simulate sonic weakening of the THC, but no model simulates a complete shutdown of the THC. The multimodel ensemble indicates that the surface air temperature could present a complex anomaly pattern with cooling south of Greenland and warming over the Barents and Nordic Seas. The Atlantic ITCZ tends to shift southward. In response to 1.0-Sv freshwater input, the THC switches off rapidly in all model simulations. A large cooling occurs over the North Atlantic. The annual mean Atlantic ITCZ moves into the Southern Hemisphere. Models disagree in terms of the reversibility of the THC after its shutdown. In general, the EMICs and AOGCMs obtain similar THC responses and climate changes with more pronounced and sharper patterns in the AOGCMs.

Boundary layer structure and decoupling from synoptic scale flow during NAMBLEX

This paper presents an overview of the meteorology and planetary boundary layer structure observed during the NAMBLEX field campaign to aid interpretation of the chemical and aerosol measurements. The campaign has been separated into five periods corresponding to the prevailing synoptic condition. Comparisons between meteorological measurements ( UHF wind profiler, Doppler sodar, sonic aneometers mounted on a tower at varying heights and a standard anemometer) and the ECMWF analysis at 10 m and 1100 m identified days when the internal boundary layer was decoupled from the synoptic flow aloft. Generally the agreement was remarkably good apart from during period one and on a few days during period four when the diurnal swing in wind direction implies a sea/land breeze circulation near the surface. During these periods the origin of air sampled at Mace Head would not be accurately represented by back trajectories following the winds resolved in ECMWF analyses. The wind profiler observations give a detailed record of boundary layer structure including an indication of its depth, average wind speed and direction. Turbulence statistics have been used to assess the height to which the developing internal boundary layer, caused by the increased surface drag at the coast, reaches the sampling location under a wide range of marine conditions. Sampling conducted below 10 m will be impacted by emission sources at the shoreline in all wind directions and tidal conditions, whereas sampling above 15 m is unlikely to be affected in any of the wind directions and tidal heights sampled during the experiment.

Turbulent flow at 190 m height above London during 2006-2008: A climatology and the applicability of similarity theory

Flow and turbulence above urban terrain is more complex than above rural terrain, due to the different momentum and heat transfer characteristics that are affected by the presence of buildings (e.g. pressure variations around buildings). The applicability of similarity theory (as developed over rural terrain) is tested using observations of flow from a sonic anemometer located at 190.3 m height in London, U.K. using about 6500 h of data. Turbulence statistics—dimensionless wind speed and temperature, standard deviations and correlation coefficients for momentum and heat transfer—were analysed in three ways. First, turbulence statistics were plotted as a function only of a local stability parameter z/Λ (where Λ is the local Obukhov length and z is the height above ground); the σ_i/u_* values (i = u, v, w) for neutral conditions are 2.3, 1.85 and 1.35 respectively, similar to canonical values. Second, analysis of urban mixed-layer formulations during daytime convective conditions over London was undertaken, showing that atmospheric turbulence at high altitude over large cities might not behave dissimilarly from that over rural terrain. Third, correlation coefficients for heat and momentum were analyzed with respect to local stability. The results give confidence in using the framework of local similarity for turbulence measured over London, and perhaps other cities. However, the following caveats for our data are worth noting: (i) the terrain is reasonably flat, (ii) building heights vary little over a large area, and (iii) the sensor height is above the mean roughness sublayer depth.

A thermally stable tension meter for atmospheric soundings using kites

Kites offer considerable potential as wind speed sensors—a role distinct from their traditional use as instrument-carrying platforms. In the sensor role, wind speed is measured by kite-line tension. A kite tether line tension meter is described here, using strain gauges mounted on an aluminum ring in a Wheatstone bridge electronic circuit. It exhibits a linear response to tension 19.5 mV N−1 with good thermal stability mean drift of −0.18 N °C−1 over 5–45 °C temperature range and a rapid time response 0.2 s or better. Field comparisons of tether line tension for a Rokkaku kite with a fixed tower sonic anemometer show an approximately linear tension-wind speed relationship over the range 1–6 ms−1. © 2010 American Institute of Physics. doi:10.1063/1.3465560

A method for estimating the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate from a vertically pointing Doppler lidar, and independent evaluation from balloon-borne in situ measurements

A method of estimating dissipation rates from a vertically pointing Doppler lidar with high temporal and spatial resolution has been evaluated by comparison with independent measurements derived from a balloon-borne sonic anemometer. This method utilizes the variance of the mean Doppler velocity from a number of sequential samples and requires an estimate of the horizontal wind speed. The noise contribution to the variance can be estimated from the observed signal-to-noise ratio and removed where appropriate. The relative size of the noise variance to the observed variance provides a measure of the confidence in the retrieval. Comparison with in situ dissipation rates derived from the balloon-borne sonic anemometer reveal that this particular Doppler lidar is capable of retrieving dissipation rates over a range of at least three orders of magnitude. This method is most suitable for retrieval of dissipation rates within the convective well-mixed boundary layer where the scales of motion that the Doppler lidar probes remain well within the inertial subrange. Caution must be applied when estimating dissipation rates in more quiescent conditions. For the particular Doppler lidar described here, the selection of suitably short integration times will permit this method to be applicable in such situations but at the expense of accuracy in the Doppler velocity estimates. The two case studies presented here suggest that, with profiles every 4 s, reliable estimates of ϵ can be derived to within at least an order of magnitude throughout almost all of the lowest 2 km and, in the convective boundary layer, to within 50%. Increasing the integration time for individual profiles to 30 s can improve the accuracy substantially but potentially confines retrievals to within the convective boundary layer. Therefore, optimization of certain instrument parameters may be required for specific implementations.

Vertical velocity variance and skewness in clear and cloud-topped boundary layers as revealed by Doppler lidar

In this paper, observations by a ground-based vertically pointing Doppler lidar and sonic anemometer are used to investigate the diurnal evolution of boundary-layer turbulence in cloudless, cumulus and stratocumulus conditions. When turbulence is driven primarily by surface heating, such as in cloudless and cumulus-topped boundary layers, both the vertical velocity variance and skewness follow similar profiles, on average, to previous observational studies of turbulence in convective conditions, with a peak skewness of around 0.8 in the upper third of the mixed layer. When the turbulence is driven primarily by cloud-top radiative cooling, such as in the presence of nocturnal stratocumulus, it is found that the skewness is inverted in both sign and height: its minimum value of around −0.9 occurs in the lower third of the mixed layer. The profile of variance is consistent with a cloud-top cooling rate of around 30Wm−2. This is also consistent with the evolution of the thermodynamic profile and the rate of growth of the mixed layer into the stable nocturnal boundary layer from above. In conditions where surface heating occurs simultaneously with cloud-top cooling, the skewness is found to be useful for diagnosing the source of the turbulence, suggesting that long-term Doppler lidar observations would be valuable for evaluating boundary-layer parametrization schemes. Copyright c 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Proof of concept of automated mapping of weeds in arable fields

The project investigated whether it would be possible to remove the main technical hindrance to precision application of herbicides to arable crops in the UK, namely creating geo-referenced weed maps for each field. The ultimate goal is an information system so that agronomists and farmers can plan precision weed control and create spraying maps. The project focussed on black-grass in wheat, but research was also carried out on barley and beans and on wild-oats, barren brome, rye-grass, cleavers and thistles which form stable patches in arable fields. Farmers may also make special efforts to control them. Using cameras mounted on farm machinery, the project explored the feasibility of automating the process of mapping black-grass in fields. Geo-referenced images were captured from June to December 2009, using sprayers, a tractor, combine harvesters and on foot. Cameras were mounted on the sprayer boom, on windows or on top of tractor and combine cabs and images were captured with a range of vibration levels and at speeds up to 20 km h-1. For acceptability to farmers, it was important that every image containing black-grass was classified as containing black-grass; false negatives are highly undesirable. The software algorithms recorded no false negatives in sample images analysed to date, although some black-grass heads were unclassified and there were also false positives. The density of black-grass heads per unit area estimated by machine vision increased as a linear function of the actual density with a mean detection rate of 47% of black-grass heads in sample images at T3 within a density range of 13 to 1230 heads m-2. A final part of the project was to create geo-referenced weed maps using software written in previous HGCA-funded projects and two examples show that geo-location by machine vision compares well with manually-mapped weed patches. The consortium therefore demonstrated for the first time the feasibility of using a GPS-linked computer-controlled camera system mounted on farm machinery (tractor, sprayer or combine) to geo-reference black-grass in winter wheat between black-grass head emergence and seed shedding.

Critical Mass: Sermon for the Church of the Atom (part of A Theatre to Address at Arnolfini, Bristol and Late at Tate Britain)

A Theatre to Address explores the work of contemporary artists who use text as both a visual and sonic form. In this programme, text appears not primarily as a means of communication, but as something which has shape and structure of its own. The Reading Room will also be displaying work that looks at text as concrete or visual poetry, and the script in artists' practice. Clare Gasson presents a new work The traveller - walking walking walking through ... that explores the connection between the text, the rhythm and the action. Maryam Jafri presents a performance-lecture Death With Friends, a body of visual and textual material that forms the basis for her new film of the same name. Pil and Galia Kollectiv present a radical worship for the apocalypse, featuring a sermon for the Church of the Atom with live music by Gelbart.

Boundary layer dynamics over London, UK, as observed using Doppler lidar during REPARTEE-II

Urban boundary layers (UBLs) can be highly complex due to the heterogeneous roughness and heating of the surface, particularly at night. Due to a general lack of observations, it is not clear whether canonical models of boundary layer mixing are appropriate in modelling air quality in urban areas. This paper reports Doppler lidar observations of turbulence profiles in the centre of London, UK, as part of the second REPARTEE campaign in autumn 2007. Lidar-measured standard deviation of vertical velocity averaged over 30 min intervals generally compared well with in situ sonic anemometer measurements at 190 m on the BT telecommunications Tower. During calm, nocturnal periods, the lidar underestimated turbulent mixing due mainly to limited sampling rate. Mixing height derived from the turbulence, and aerosol layer height from the backscatter profiles, showed similar diurnal cycles ranging from c. 300 to 800 m, increasing to c. 200 to 850 m under clear skies. The aerosol layer height was sometimes significantly different to the mixing height, particularly at night under clear skies. For convective and neutral cases, the scaled turbulence profiles resembled canonical results; this was less clear for the stable case. Lidar observations clearly showed enhanced mixing beneath stratocumulus clouds reaching down on occasion to approximately half daytime boundary layer depth. On one occasion the nocturnal turbulent structure was consistent with a nocturnal jet, suggesting a stable layer. Given the general agreement between observations and canonical turbulence profiles, mixing timescales were calculated for passive scalars released at street level to reach the BT Tower using existing models of turbulent mixing. It was estimated to take c. 10 min to diffuse up to 190 m, rising to between 20 and 50 min at night, depending on stability. Determination of mixing timescales is important when comparing to physico-chemical processes acting on pollutant species measured simultaneously at both the ground and at the BT Tower during the campaign. From the 3 week autumnal data-set there is evidence for occasional stable layers in central London, effectively decoupling surface emissions from air aloft.

Svetlana

Svetlana is a series of photographs documenting rehearsals for an opera that was never performed. Written by Waw Pierogi, founder of the 1980s group Xex, little is known of the opera, only that it was inspired by Svetlana, a character from one of their songs and the daughter of Stalin, who defected from the Soviet Union twice. A fictional Svetlana and a bogus Leon Theremin - inventor of the eponymous hands-free electronic musical instrument who was later kidnapped by the KGB - inhabit an archive of photographs from a session of stage rehearsals and location shots. Combining Svetlana’s narrative with a conspiracy to create sound weapons, this documentation of theatre workshops, styled after Bauhaus drama class exercises, produces an entirely spurious story of espionage, sonic weaponry and the clash between love and ideology. The performers sport geometric military costumes, brandishing sculptural forms fashioned after the acoustic locators that preceded radar technology. These redundant locators were still kept in use as props, concealing the introduction of radar from the Germans. They perfectly capture the theatricality of military might and suggest the rhetorical force of sound or even the political power of art. Svetlana was originally produced as part of a residency at S1 Artspace, Sheffield, and was later shown at Tatty Devine, alongside a special capsule collection of jewellery made by Tatty Devine.

Globalisation and the evolution of international retailing: a comment on Alexander's 'British overseas retailing, 1900-1960'

Nicholas Alexander's (2011. British overseas retailing, 1900–60: International firm characteristics, market selections and entry modes. Business History, 53, 530–556) survey of British overseas retailers from 1900 to 1960 provides pathbreaking new evidence of international retailing activity during the first globalisation boom. The article surveys this and other recent evidence, and confirms that international retailing was far more significant up to 1929 than previously thought. This activity was overwhelmingly undertaken by non-retailers, however, and hence by multinationals whose advantages in retailing were fundamentally unsustainable over the long run. Even the department store format, the principal retail innovation of the period, was not internationalised primarily by multinationals. Rather it was diffused via indigenous entrepreneurs, driven by a rapidly growing global demand for western style fashion and dress.