A novel ranking procedure for forecasting approaches using Data Envelopment Analysis

To compare the accuracy of different forecasting approaches an error measure is required. Many error measures have been proposed in the literature, however in practice there are some situations where different measures yield different decisions on forecasting approach selection and there is no agreement on which approach should be used. Generally forecasting measures represent ratios or percentages providing an overall image of how well fitted the forecasting technique is to the observations. This paper proposes a multiplicative Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model in order to rank several forecasting techniques. We demonstrate the proposed model by applying it to the set of yearly time series of the M3 competition. The usefulness of the proposed approach has been tested using the M3-competition where five error measures have been applied in and aggregated to a single DEA score.

Assessing the role of Mediterranean evergreen oaks canopy cover in land surface albedo and temperature using a remote sensing-based approach

Modifications in vegetation cover can have an impact on the climate through changes in biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes. In this paper, the tree canopy cover percentage of a savannah-like ecosystem (montado/dehesa) was estimated at Landsat pixel level for 2011, and the role of different canopy cover percentages on land surface albedo (LSA) and land surface temperature (LST) were analysed. A modelling procedure using a SGB machine-learning algorithm and Landsat 5-TM spectral bands and derived vegetation indices as explanatory variables, showed that the estimation of montado canopy cover was obtained with good agreement (R2 = 78.4%). Overall, montado canopy cover estimations showed that low canopy cover class (MT_1) is the most representative with 50.63% of total montado area. MODIS LSA and LST products were used to investigate the magnitude of differences in mean annual LSA and LST values between contrasting montado canopy cover percentages. As a result, it was found a significant statistical relationship between montado canopy cover percentage and mean annual surface albedo (R2 = 0.866, p < 0.001) and surface temperature (R2 = 0.942, p < 0.001). The comparisons between the four contrasting montado canopy cover classes showed marked differences in LSA (χ2 = 192.17, df = 3, p < 0.001) and LST (χ2 = 318.18, df = 3, p < 0.001). The highest montado canopy cover percentage (MT_4) generally had lower albedo than lowest canopy cover class, presenting a difference of −11.2% in mean annual albedo values. It was also showed that MT_4 and MT_3 are the cooler canopy cover classes, and MT_2 and MT_1 the warmer, where MT_1 class had a difference of 3.42 °C compared with MT_4 class. Overall, this research highlighted the role that potential changes in montado canopy cover may play in local land surface albedo and temperature variations, as an increase in these two biogeophysical parameters may potentially bring about, in the long term, local/regional climatic changes moving towards greater aridity.

A novel two-stage discrete crack method based on the screened Poisson equation and local mesh refinement

We propose an alternative crack propagation algo- rithm which effectively circumvents the variable transfer procedure adopted with classical mesh adaptation algo- rithms. The present alternative consists of two stages: a mesh-creation stage where a local damage model is employed with the objective of defining a crack-conforming mesh and a subsequent analysis stage with a localization limiter in the form of a modified screened Poisson equation which is exempt of crack path calculations. In the second stage, the crack naturally occurs within the refined region. A staggered scheme for standard equilibrium and screened Poisson equa- tions is used in this second stage. Element subdivision is based on edge split operations using a constitutive quantity (damage). To assess the robustness and accuracy of this algo- rithm, we use five quasi-brittle benchmarks, all successfully solved.

Satellite based multi-scale methods to support governance of Brazil's low-carbon agriculture (ABC Plan).

Brazil's Low Carbon Agriculture is one the initiatives that puts the climate in the agricultural agenda towards a more sustainable and adapted agriculture under global changes. Among the several practices listed and supported by the ABC Plan, zero tillage and integrated crop-livestock-forestry systems including the recovery of degraded pasture are the most relevant ones. The objective of this paper is to present the Geo-ABC Project, a procedure to monitor the implementation of the Brazil?s Low Carbon Agriculture (ABC Plan) and aiming at the development of remote sensing methods to monitor agricultural systems listed in the ABC Plan and adopted at local scale.

Advanced Mission Synthesis Algorithms for Vibration-based Accelerated Life-testing

In the field of vibration qualification testing, with the popular Random Control mode of shakers, the specimen is excited by random vibrations typically set in the form of a Power Spectral Density (PSD). The corresponding signals are stationary and Gaussian, i.e. featuring a normal distribution. Conversely, real-life excitations are frequently non-Gaussian, exhibiting high peaks and/or burst signals and/or deterministic harmonic components. The so-called kurtosis is a parameter often used to statistically describe the occurrence and significance of high peak values in a random process. Since the similarity between test input profiles and real-life excitations is fundamental for qualification test reliability, some methods of kurtosis-control can be implemented to synthesize realistic (non-Gaussian) input signals. Durability tests are performed to check the resistance of a component to vibration-based fatigue damage. A procedure to synthesize test excitations which starts from measured data and preserves both the damage potential and the characteristics of the reference signals is desirable. The Fatigue Damage Spectrum (FDS) is generally used to quantify the fatigue damage potential associated with the excitation. The signal synthesized for accelerated durability tests (i.e. with a limited duration) must feature the same FDS as the reference vibration computed for the component’s expected lifetime. Current standard procedures are efficient in synthesizing signals in the form of a PSD, but prove inaccurate if reference data are non-Gaussian. This work presents novel algorithms for the synthesis of accelerated durability test profiles with prescribed FDS and a non-Gaussian distribution. An experimental campaign is conducted to validate the algorithms, by testing their accuracy, robustness, and practical effectiveness. Moreover, an original procedure is proposed for the estimation of the fatigue damage potential, aiming to minimize the computational time. The research is thus supposed to improve both the effectiveness and the efficiency of excitation profile synthesis for accelerated durability tests.

Robotic Sensing and Manipulation of Deformable Linear Objects with Learning-based methods

Nowadays robotic applications are widespread and most of the manipulation tasks are efficiently solved. However, Deformable-Objects (DOs) still represent a huge limitation for robots. The main difficulty in DOs manipulation is dealing with the shape and dynamics uncertainties, which prevents the use of model-based approaches (since they are excessively computationally complex) and makes sensory data difficult to interpret. This thesis reports the research activities aimed to address some applications in robotic manipulation and sensing of Deformable-Linear-Objects (DLOs), with particular focus to electric wires. In all the works, a significant effort was made in the study of an effective strategy for analyzing sensory signals with various machine learning algorithms. In the former part of the document, the main focus concerns the wire terminals, i.e. detection, grasping, and insertion. First, a pipeline that integrates vision and tactile sensing is developed, then further improvements are proposed for each module. A novel procedure is proposed to gather and label massive amounts of training images for object detection with minimal human intervention. Together with this strategy, we extend a generic object detector based on Convolutional-Neural-Networks for orientation prediction. The insertion task is also extended by developing a closed-loop control capable to guide the insertion of a longer and curved segment of wire through a hole, where the contact forces are estimated by means of a Recurrent-Neural-Network. In the latter part of the thesis, the interest shifts to the DLO shape. Robotic reshaping of a DLO is addressed by means of a sequence of pick-and-place primitives, while a decision making process driven by visual data learns the optimal grasping locations exploiting Deep Q-learning and finds the best releasing point. The success of the solution leverages on a reliable interpretation of the DLO shape. For this reason, further developments are made on the visual segmentation.

Self-supervised information retrieval: a novel approach based on Deep Metric Learning and Neural Language Models

Most of the existing open-source search engines, utilize keyword or tf-idf based techniques to find relevant documents and web pages relative to an input query. Although these methods, with the help of a page rank or knowledge graphs, proved to be effective in some cases, they often fail to retrieve relevant instances for more complicated queries that would require a semantic understanding to be exploited. In this Thesis, a self-supervised information retrieval system based on transformers is employed to build a semantic search engine over the library of Gruppo Maggioli company. Semantic search or search with meaning can refer to an understanding of the query, instead of simply finding words matches and, in general, it represents knowledge in a way suitable for retrieval. We chose to investigate a new self-supervised strategy to handle the training of unlabeled data based on the creation of pairs of ’artificial’ queries and the respective positive passages. We claim that by removing the reliance on labeled data, we may use the large volume of unlabeled material on the web without being limited to languages or domains where labeled data is abundant.

Synthesis and catalytic activity of new cu-based catalytic systems for the enhanced electrochemical CO2 reduction

This Ph.D. thesis concerns the synthesis of nanostructured Cu-containing materials to be used as electrode modifiers for the CO2 electroreduction in aqueous phase and the evaluation of their catalytic performances. Inspired by the fascinating concept of the artificial photosynthesis-oriented systems, several catalytic layers were electrochemically loaded on carbonaceous gas diffusion membranes, i.e., 3D structures that allow the design of eco-friendly materials for applications in green carbon recycling processes. In particular, early studies on Cu(I-II)-Cu(0) nanostructured materials were carried out to produce films on 4 cm2 sized supports by means of a fast and low-cost electrochemical procedure. Besides, through a screening of potentials, it was possible to find out a selective value for the CH3COOH production at -0.4 V vs RHE with a maximum productivity (1h reaction), ensured by the presence of the Cu+/Cu0 active redox couple (0.31 mmol gcat-1 h-1). On the basis of these results, further optimisations of the electrocatalyst chemical composition were carried out with the aim of (i) facilitating the interaction with CO2, (ii) increasing the dispersion of the catalytic active phase, and (iii) enhancing the CH3COOH productivity. To this aim, novel electrocatalysts based on layered double hydroxides (LDHs) were optimised, having as a final goal the formation of a new Cu2O-Cu0 based electrocatalyst derived from electrochemically achieved CuMgAl LDHs, subjected to calcination and reduction processes. The as-obtained electrocatalysts were tested for the selective production of CH3COOH and unprecedented results were obtained with the pristine CuMgAl LDH (2.0 mmol gcat-1 h-1). Additional characterisations of such an electrocatalyst have highlighted the possibility to achieve a ternary LDH in intimate contact with Cu2O-Cu0 species starting from the electrochemical deposition. The presence of these species, along with an alkaline environment on the electrode surface, were essential to preserve the selectivity towards the desired product, as confirmed by further operando studies.

Design and testing of innovative, artificial intelligence-based techniques to model and control the combustion process and to reduce the Co2 emissions in modern, high-performance, gasoline direct injection engines

This work deals with the development of calibration procedures and control systems to improve the performance and efficiency of modern spark ignition turbocharged engines. The algorithms developed are used to optimize and manage the spark advance and the air-to-fuel ratio to control the knock and the exhaust gas temperature at the turbine inlet. The described work falls within the activity that the research group started in the previous years with the industrial partner Ferrari S.p.a. . The first chapter deals with the development of a control-oriented engine simulator based on a neural network approach, with which the main combustion indexes can be simulated. The second chapter deals with the development of a procedure to calibrate offline the spark advance and the air-to-fuel ratio to run the engine under knock-limited conditions and with the maximum admissible exhaust gas temperature at the turbine inlet. This procedure is then converted into a model-based control system and validated with a Software in the Loop approach using the engine simulator developed in the first chapter. Finally, it is implemented in a rapid control prototyping hardware to manage the combustion in steady-state and transient operating conditions at the test bench. The third chapter deals with the study of an innovative and cheap sensor for the in-cylinder pressure measurement, which is a piezoelectric washer that can be installed between the spark plug and the engine head. The signal generated by this kind of sensor is studied, developing a specific algorithm to adjust the value of the knock index in real-time. Finally, with the engine simulator developed in the first chapter, it is demonstrated that the innovative sensor can be coupled with the control system described in the second chapter and that the performance obtained could be the same reachable with the standard in-cylinder pressure sensors.

Sensor networks optimization and software development for Structural Health Monitoring based on ultrasonic guided waves

The Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) research area is increasingly investigated due to its high potential in reducing the maintenance costs and in ensuring the systems safety in several industrial application fields. A growing demand of new SHM systems, permanently embedded into the structures, for savings in weight and cabling, comes from the aeronautical and aerospace application fields. As consequence, the embedded electronic devices are to be wirelessly connected and battery powered. As result, a low power consumption is requested. At the same time, high performance in defects or impacts detection and localization are to be ensured to assess the structural integrity. To achieve these goals, the design paradigms can be changed together with the associate signal processing. The present thesis proposes design strategies and unconventional solutions, suitable both for real-time monitoring and periodic inspections, relying on piezo-transducers and Ultrasonic Guided Waves. In the first context, arrays of closely located sensors were designed, according to appropriate optimality criteria, by exploiting sensors re-shaping and optimal positioning, to achieve improved damages/impacts localisation performance in noisy environments. An additional sensor re-shaping procedure was developed to tackle another well-known issue which arises in realistic scenario, namely the reverberation. A novel sensor, able to filter undesired mechanical boundaries reflections, was validated via simulations based on the Green's functions formalism and FEM. In the active SHM context, a novel design methodology was used to develop a single transducer, called Spectrum-Scanning Acoustic Transducer, to actively inspect a structure. It can estimate the number of defects and their distances with an accuracy of 2[cm]. It can also estimate the damage angular coordinate with an equivalent mainlobe aperture of 8[deg], when a 24[cm] radial gap between two defects is ensured. A suitable signal processing was developed in order to limit the computational cost, allowing its use with embedded electronic devices.

Modelling and classification with quantile-based distributions

In this work, we explore and demonstrate the potential for modeling and classification using quantile-based distributions, which are random variables defined by their quantile function. In the first part we formalize a least squares estimation framework for the class of linear quantile functions, leading to unbiased and asymptotically normal estimators. Among the distributions with a linear quantile function, we focus on the flattened generalized logistic distribution (fgld), which offers a wide range of distributional shapes. A novel naïve-Bayes classifier is proposed that utilizes the fgld estimated via least squares, and through simulations and applications, we demonstrate its competitiveness against state-of-the-art alternatives. In the second part we consider the Bayesian estimation of quantile-based distributions. We introduce a factor model with independent latent variables, which are distributed according to the fgld. Similar to the independent factor analysis model, this approach accommodates flexible factor distributions while using fewer parameters. The model is presented within a Bayesian framework, an MCMC algorithm for its estimation is developed, and its effectiveness is illustrated with data coming from the European Social Survey. The third part focuses on depth functions, which extend the concept of quantiles to multivariate data by imposing a center-outward ordering in the multivariate space. We investigate the recently introduced integrated rank-weighted (IRW) depth function, which is based on the distribution of random spherical projections of the multivariate data. This depth function proves to be computationally efficient and to increase its flexibility we propose different methods to explicitly model the projected univariate distributions. Its usefulness is shown in classification tasks: the maximum depth classifier based on the IRW depth is proven to be asymptotically optimal under certain conditions, and classifiers based on the IRW depth are shown to perform well in simulated and real data experiments.

Development and scale-up studies of bio-based poly(ester-amide)s

Plastics are polymers of conventional and extensive use in our day-to-day life. This is due to their light weight, adaptability to different uses and low prices. A downside of such extensive use is the environmental pollution arising from plastic production and disposal. Indeed, many commodity polymers are produced from non-renewable resources while other do not bio-degrade after their end-of-life disposal. Consequently, the ideal polymer comes from renewable raw materials and bio-degrades after its disposal, meaning that it would do little or no harm to the environment from the beginning to the end of its life cycle. In this thesis project a class of bio-based and bio-degradable co-polymers, namely poly(ester-amide)s, was investigated because of their tunable mechanical and bio-degradation properties as well as their renewable origin. Such polymers were synthetized and characterized thermically and mechanically. Furthermore, a scale-up procedure was developed and applied to one polymer and processing trials were made with the material obtained after scale-up.

[almost An Autobiography: A Study Of Social Scientists In Health Based On The Lattes Curriculum].

Among the various ways of adopting the biographical approach, we used the curriculum vitaes (CVs) of Brazilian researchers who work as social scientists in health as our research material. These CVs are part of the Lattes Platform of CNPq - the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development, which includes Research and Institutional Directories. We analyzed 238 CVs for this study. The CVs contain, among other things, the following information: professional qualifications, activities and projects, academic production, participation in panels for the evaluation of theses and dissertations, research centers and laboratories and a summarized autobiography. In this work there is a brief review of the importance of autobiography for the social sciences, emphasizing the CV as a form of autobiographical practice. We highlight some results, such as it being a group consisting predominantly of women, graduates in social sciences, anthropology, sociology or political science, with postgraduate degrees. The highest concentration of social scientists is located in Brazil's southern and southeastern regions. In some institutions the main activities of social scientists are as teachers and researchers with great thematic diversity in research.

Ihwg-μnir: A Miniaturised Near-infrared Gas Sensor Based On Substrate-integrated Hollow Waveguides Coupled To A Micro-nir-spectrophotometer.

A miniaturised gas analyser is described and evaluated based on the use of a substrate-integrated hollow waveguide (iHWG) coupled to a microsized near-infrared spectrophotometer comprising a linear variable filter and an array of InGaAs detectors. This gas sensing system was applied to analyse surrogate samples of natural fuel gas containing methane, ethane, propane and butane, quantified by using multivariate regression models based on partial least square (PLS) algorithms and Savitzky-Golay 1(st) derivative data preprocessing. The external validation of the obtained models reveals root mean square errors of prediction of 0.37, 0.36, 0.67 and 0.37% (v/v), for methane, ethane, propane and butane, respectively. The developed sensing system provides particularly rapid response times upon composition changes of the gaseous sample (approximately 2 s) due the minute volume of the iHWG-based measurement cell. The sensing system developed in this study is fully portable with a hand-held sized analyser footprint, and thus ideally suited for field analysis. Last but not least, the obtained results corroborate the potential of NIR-iHWG analysers for monitoring the quality of natural gas and petrochemical gaseous products.

Can We Predict The Clinical Outcomes Of Genitourinary Trauma Patients And Offer Them An Evidence-based Support? The Case For Telemedicine Network.

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