Age determination and clay content of sediment core GeoB5804-4

Paleosalinity and terrigenous sediment input changes reconstructed on two sediment cores from the northernmost Red Sea were used to infer hydrological changes at the southern margin of the Mediterranean climate zone during the Holocene. Between approximately 9.25 and 7.25 thousand years ago, about 3 per mil reduced surface water salinities and enhanced fluvial sediment input suggest substantially higher rainfall and freshwater runoff, which thereafter decreased to modern values. The northern Red Sea humid interval is best explained by enhancement and southward extension of rainfall from Mediterranean sources, possibly involving strengthened early-Holocene Arctic Oscillation patterns and a regional monsoon-type circulation induced by increased land-sea temperature contrasts. We conclude that Afro-Asian monsoonal rains did not cross the subtropical desert zone during the early to mid-Holocene.

Debris flow magnitudes: a global catalog

The episodic occurrence of debris flow events in response to stochastic precipitation and wildfire events makes hazard prediction challenging. Previous work has shown that frequency-magnitude distributions of non-fire-related debris flows follow a power law, but less is known about the distribution of post-fire debris flows. As a first step in parameterizing hazard models, we use frequency-magnitude distributions and cumulative distribution functions to compare volumes of post-fire debris flows to non-fire-related debris flows. Due to the large number of events required to parameterize frequency-magnitude distributions, and the relatively small number of post-fire event magnitudes recorded in the literature, we collected data on 73 recent post-fire events in the field. The resulting catalog of 988 debris flow events is presented as an appendix to this article. We found that the empirical cumulative distribution function of post-fire debris flow volumes is composed of smaller events than that of non-fire-related debris flows. In addition, the slope of the frequency-magnitude distribution of post-fire debris flows is steeper than that of non-fire-related debris flows, evidence that differences in the post-fire environment tend to produce a higher proportion of small events. We propose two possible explanations: 1) post-fire events occur on shorter return intervals than debris flows in similar basins that do not experience fire, causing their distribution to shift toward smaller events due to limitations in sediment supply, or 2) fire causes changes in resisting and driving forces on a package of sediment, such that a smaller perturbation of the system is required in order for a debris flow to occur, resulting in smaller event volumes.

A 18-years long (1993-2011) snow and meteorological dataset from a mid-altitude mountain site (Col de Porte, France, 1325 altitude)

A quality-controlled snow and meteorological dataset spanning the period 1 August 1993-31 July 2011 is presented, originating from the experimental station Col de Porte (1325 m altitude, Chartreuse range, France). Emphasis is placed on meteorological data relevant to the observation and modelling of the seasonal snowpack. In-situ driving data, at the hourly resolution, consist of measurements of air temperature, relative humidity, windspeed, incoming short-wave and long-wave radiation, precipitation rate partitioned between snow- and rainfall, with a focus on the snow-dominated season. Meteorological data for the three summer months (generally from 10 June to 20 September), when the continuity of the field record is not warranted, are taken from a local meteorological reanalysis (SAFRAN), in order to provide a continuous and consistent gap-free record. Data relevant to snowpack properties are provided at the daily (snow depth, snow water equivalent, runoff and albedo) and hourly (snow depth, albedo, runoff, surface temperature, soil temperature) time resolution. Internal snowpack information is provided from weekly manual snowpit observations (mostly consisting in penetration resistance, snow type, snow temperature and density profiles) and from a hourly record of temperature and height of vertically free ''settling'' disks. This dataset has been partially used in the past to assist in developing snowpack models and is presented here comprehensively for the purpose of multi-year model performance assessment. The data is placed on the PANGAEA repository (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.774249) as well as on the public ftp server ftp://ftp-cnrm.meteo.fr/pub-cencdp/.

XRF-scanned elemental concentrations from sediment cores off Peru

We present a high-resolution marine record of sediment input from the Guayas River, Ecuador, that reflects changes in precipitation along western equatorial South America during the last 18ka. We use log (Ti/Ca) derived from X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) to document terrigenous input from riverine runoff that integrates rainfall from the Guayas River catchment. We find that rainfall-induced riverine runoff has increased during the Holocene and decreased during the last deglaciation. Superimposed on those long-term trends, we find that rainfall was probably slightly increased during the Younger Dryas, while the Heinrich event 1 was marked by an extreme load of terrigenous input, probably reflecting one of the wettest period over the time interval studied. When we compare our results to other Deglacial to Holocene rainfall records located across the tropical South American continent, different modes of variability become apparent. The records of rainfall variability imply that changes in the hydrological cycle at orbital and sub-orbital timescales were different from western to eastern South America. Orbital forcing caused an antiphase behavior in rainfall trends between eastern and western equatorial South America. In contrast, millennial-scale rainfall changes, remotely connected to the North Atlantic climate variability, led to homogenously wetter conditions over eastern and western equatorial South America during North Atlantic cold spells. These results may provide helpful diagnostics for testing the regional rainfall sensitivity in climate models and help to refine rainfall projections in South America for the next century.

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions and rainfall decline in South-West Australia - accompanying model results in NetCDF format

It is commonly understood that the observed decline in precipitation in South-West Australia during the 20th century is caused by anthropogenic factors. Candidates therefore are changes to large-scale atmospheric circulations due to global warming, extensive deforestation and anthropogenic aerosol emissions - all of which are effective on different spatial and temporal scales. This contribution focusses on the role of rapidly rising aerosol emissions from anthropogenic sources in South-West Australia around 1970. An analysis of historical longterm rainfall data of the Bureau of Meteorology shows that South-West Australia as a whole experienced a gradual decline in precipitation over the 20th century. However, on smaller scales and for the particular example of the Perth catchment area, a sudden drop in precipitation around 1970 is apparent. Modelling experiments at a convection-resolving resolution of 3.3km using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.6.1 with the aerosol-aware Thompson-Eidhammer microphysics scheme are conducted for the period 1970-1974. A comparison of four runs with different prescribed aerosol emissions and without aerosol effects demonstrates that tripling the pre-1960s atmospheric CCN and IN concentrations can suppress precipitation by 2-9%, depending on the area and the season. This suggests that a combination of all three processes is required to account for the gradual decline in rainfall seen for greater South-West Australia and for the sudden drop observed in areas along the West Coast in the 1970s: changing atmospheric circulations, deforestation and anthropogenic aerosol emissions.

Improving runoff estimates from regional climate models: a performance analysis in Spain

An important step to assess water availability is to have monthly time series representative of the current situation. In this context, a simple methodology is presented for application in large-scale studies in regions where a properly calibrated hydrologic model is not available, using the output variables simulated by regional climate models (RCMs) of the European project PRUDENCE under current climate conditions (period 1961–1990). The methodology compares different interpolation methods and alternatives to generate annual times series that minimise the bias with respect to observed values. The objective is to identify the best alternative to obtain bias-corrected, monthly runoff time series from the output of RCM simulations. This study uses information from 338 basins in Spain that cover the entire mainland territory and whose observed values of natural runoff have been estimated by the distributed hydrological model SIMPA. Four interpolation methods for downscaling runoff to the basin scale from 10 RCMs are compared with emphasis on the ability of each method to reproduce the observed behaviour of this variable. The alternatives consider the use of the direct runoff of the RCMs and the mean annual runoff calculated using five functional forms of the aridity index, defined as the ratio between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. In addition, the comparison with respect to the global runoff reference of the UNH/GRDC dataset is evaluated, as a contrast of the “best estimator” of current runoff on a large scale. Results show that the bias is minimised using the direct original interpolation method and the best alternative for bias correction of the monthly direct runoff time series of RCMs is the UNH/GRDC dataset, although the formula proposed by Schreiber (1904) also gives good results

Fungal microbiota from rain water and pathogenicity of Fusarium species isolated from atmospheric dust and rainfall dust

In order to determine the presence of Fusarium spp. in atmospheric dust and rainfall dust, samples were collected during September 2007, and July, August, and October 2008. The results reveal the prevalence of airborne Fusarium species coming from the atmosphere of the South East coast of Spain. Five different Fusarium species were isolated from the settling dust: Fusarium oxysporum, F. solani, F. equiseti, F. dimerum, and F. proliferatum. Moreover, rainwater samples were obtained during significant rainfall events in January and February 2009. Using the dilution-plate method, 12 fungal genera were identified from these rainwater samples. Specific analyses of the rainwater revealed the presence of three species of Fusarium: F. oxysporum, F. proliferatum and F. equiseti. A total of 57 isolates of Fusarium spp. obtained from both rainwater and atmospheric rainfall dust sampling were inoculated onto melon (Cucumis melo L.) cv. Piñonet and tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) cv. San Pedro. These species were chosen because they are the main herbaceous crops in Almeria province. The results presented in this work indicate strongly that spores or propagules of Fusarium are able to cross the continental barrier carried by winds from the Sahara (Africa) to crop or coastal lands in Europe. Results show differences in the pathogenicity of the isolates tested. Both hosts showed root rot when inoculated with different species of Fusarium, although fresh weight measurements did not bring any information about the pathogenicity. The findings presented above are strong indications that long-distance transmission of Fusarium propagules may occur. Diseases caused by species of Fusarium are common in these areas. They were in the past, and are still today, a problem for greenhouses crops in Almería, and many species have been listed as pathogens on agricultural crops in this region. Saharan air masses dominate the Mediterranean regions. The evidence of long distance dispersal of Fusarium spp. by atmospheric dust and rainwater together with their proved pathogenicity must be taken into account in epidemiological studies.

FMECA application to Rainfall Hazard prevention

This paper presents a System Safety application to reduce the economical impact hazards in growings produced by Rainfall. System Safety is an engineering subdiscipline oriented to identify and mitigate the possible hazards to a system under study. Inside the System Safety area, the FMECA (Failure Mode, Effects and Criticallity Analysis) is a popular tool to analyze and identify the failures and weaknesses points of any system. Basically, it consist on identifying systematically the failure modes of a system to mitigate them as much as possible. The idea is to study three different kind of growings (stone fruits in the south of Spain, wheat production in Castilla Leon and Olive trees production in Andalucia) using this methodology in order to identify all the hazardous situations produced by rainfall. Applying the state of the art weather forecast techniques, this information would help farmers to prevent and mitigate the identified hazardous situations. The aim of the work is to prevent the economical hazards as are defined in the System Safety area: "Any real or potential condition that can cause injury, illness, or death to personnel; damage to or loss of a system, equipment or property; or damage to the environment", so the study is not reduced to the analysis of catastrophical situations but aboutany kind of economical damage produced by rainfall.

Spatial and temporal precipitation patterns of the Ebro River Basin, Spain

The Ebro River Basin, with around 85 000 km2 and located in NE Spain, is characterized by the high spatial heterogeneity of its geology, topography, climatology and land use. Rainfall is one of the most important climatic variables studied owing to its non-homogenous behaviour in event and intensity, which creates drought, water runoff and soil erosion with negative environmental and social consequences. In this work we characterized the rainfall variability pattern in the Ebro River Basin using universal multifractal (UM) analysis, which estimates the concentration of the data around the precipitation average (C1, codimension average), the degree of multiscaling behaviour in time (? index) and the maximum probable singularity in the rainfall distribution ( s). A spatial and temporal analysis of the UM parameters is applied to study the possible changes. With this porpoise, 60 daily rainfall series were selected from 132 synthetic series generated by Luna and Balairón (AEMet). These daily rainfall series present a length of 60 years, from 1950 to 2009. Each one of them was subdivided (1950?1970 and 1980?2009) to analyse the difference between the two periods. The range of variation of precipitation amounts and the frequency of dry events between both periods are discussed, as well as the evolution of the UM parameters through the years.