The accuracy of varietal selection using factor analytic models for multi-environment plant breeding trials

Modeling of cultivar x trial effects for multienvironment trials (METs) within a mixed model framework is now common practice in many plant breeding programs. The factor analytic (FA) model is a parsimonious form used to approximate the fully unstructured form of the genetic variance-covariance matrix in the model for MET data. In this study, we demonstrate that the FA model is generally the model of best fit across a range of data sets taken from early generation trials in a breeding program. In addition, we demonstrate the superiority of the FA model in achieving the most common aim of METs, namely the selection of superior genotypes. Selection is achieved using best linear unbiased predictions (BLUPs) of cultivar effects at each environment, considered either individually or as a weighted average across environments. In practice, empirical BLUPs (E-BLUPs) of cultivar effects must be used instead of BLUPs since variance parameters in the model must be estimated rather than assumed known. While the optimal properties of minimum mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) and maximum correlation between true and predicted effects possessed by BLUPs do not hold for E-BLUPs, a simulation study shows that E-BLUPs perform well in terms of MSEP.

Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Mechanical performances of track-shaped rebar stiffened concrete-filled steel tubular (SCFRT) stub columns under axial compression

This paper presents a combined experimental, numerical, and theoretical study on the mechanical behaviors of track-shaped concrete-filled steel tubular (SCFRT) stub columns stiffened by rebars under compressive load. A total of 18 track-shaped concrete-filled steel tubular specimens including 12 specimens stiffened by rebars and 6 non-stiffened counterparts are tested, with consideration of parameters including flakiness ratio, concrete strength, and stiffeners. Failure pattern, bearing capacity, and ductility are all analyzed and discussed based on the experimental results. The numerical simulation by finite element (FE) software ABAQUS is also conducted. Based on both experimental and numerical results, theoretical formula to predict the load-bearing capacity of SCFRT stub columns subjected to axial compression loading is established according to the superposition principle of ultimate load-bearing capacity with rational simplification. The proposed theoretical method provides accurate predictions on the load bearing capacity by comparing with experimental results from 18 groups of specimens.

Pulsed laser surface treatment of magnesium alloy: Correlation between thermal model and experimental observations

The effect of deposition of Al +Al2O3 on MRI 153 M Mg alloy processed using a pulsed Nd:YAG laser is presented in this study. A composite coating with metallurgical joint to the substrate was formed. The microstructure and phase constituents were characterized and correlated with the thermal predictions. The laser scan speed had an effect on the average melt depth and the amount of retained and/or reconstituted alumina in the final coating. The coating consisted of alumina particles and highly refined dendrites formed due to the extremely high cooling rates (of the order of 10(8) K/s). The microhardness of the coating was higher and several fold improvement of wear resistance compared to the substrate was observed for the coatings. These microstructural features and physical properties were correlated with the effects predicted by a thermal model.

Probabilistic forecasts of the onset of the north Australian wet season

The amount and timing of early wet-season rainfall are important for the management of many agricultural industries in north Australia. With this in mind, a wet-season onset date is defined based on the accumulation of rainfall to a predefined threshold, starting from 1 September, for each square of a 1° gridded analysis of daily rainfall across the region. Consistent with earlier studies, the interannual variability of the onset dates is shown to be well related to the immediately preceding July-August Southern Oscillation index (SOI). Based on this relationship, a forecast method using logistic regression is developed to predict the probability that onset will occur later than the climatological mean date. This method is expanded to also predict the probabilities that onset will be later than any of a range of threshold dates around the climatological mean. When assessed using cross-validated hindcasts, the skill of the predictions exceeds that of climatological forecasts in the majority of locations in north Australia, especially in the Top End region, Cape York, and central Queensland. At times of strong anomalies in the July-August SOI, the forecasts are reliably emphatic. Furthermore, predictions using tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as the predictor are also tested. While short-lead (July-August predictor) forecasts are more skillful using the SOI, long-lead (May-June predictor) forecasts are more skillful using Pacific SSTs, indicative of the longer-term memory present in the ocean.

Under the skin: Wearable technology futures

Artist statement – Artisan Gallery I have a confession to make… I don’t wear a FitBit, I don’t want an Apple Watch and I don’t like bling LED’s. But, what excites me is a future where ‘wearables’ are discreet, seamless and potentially one with our body. Burgeoning E-textiles research will provide the ability to inconspicuously communicate, measure and enhance human health and well-being. Alongside this, next generation wearables arguably will not be worn on the body, but rather within the body…under the skin. ‘Under the Skin’ is a polemic piece provoking debate on the future of wearables – a place where they are not overt, not auxiliary and perhaps not apparent. Indeed, a future where wearables are under the skin or one with our apparel. And, as underwear closets the skin and is the most intimate and cloaked apparel item we wear, this work unashamedly teases dialogue to explore how wearables can transcend from the overt to the unseen. Context Wearable Technology, also referred to as wearable computing or ‘wearables’, is an embryonic field that has the potential to unsettle conventional notions as to how technology can interact, enhance and augment the human body. Wearable technology is the next-generation for ubiquitous consumer electronics and ‘Wearables’ are, in essence, miniature electronic devices that are worn by a person, under clothing, embedded within clothing/textiles, on top of clothing, or as stand-alone accessories/devices. This wearables market is predicted to grow somewhere between $30-$50 billion in the next 5 years (Credit Suisse, 2013). The global ‘wearables’ market, which is emergent in phase, has forecasted predictions for vast consumer revenue with the potential to become a significant cross-disciplinary disruptive space for designers and entrepreneurs. For Fashion, the field of wearables is arguably at the intersection of the second and third generation for design innovation: the first phase being purely decorative with aspects such as LED lighting; the second phase consisting of an array of wearable devices, such as smart watches, to communicate areas such as health and fitness, the third phase involving smart electronics that are woven into the textile to perform a vast range of functions such as body cooling, fabric colour change or garment silhouette change; and the fourth phase where wearable devices are surgically implanted under the skin to augment, transform and enhance the human body. Whilst it is acknowledged the wearable phases are neither clear-cut nor discreet in progression and design innovation can still be achieved with first generation decorative approaches, the later generation of technology that is less overt and at times ‘under the skin’ provides a uniquely rich point for design innovation where the body and technology intersect as one. With this context in mind, the wearable provocation piece ‘Under the Skin’ provides a unique opportunity for the audience to question and challenge conventional notions that wearables need to be a: manifest in nature, b: worn on or next to the body, and c: purely functional. The piece ‘Under the Skin’ is informed by advances in the market place for wearable innovation, such as: the Australian based wearable design firm Catapult with their discreet textile biometric sports tracking innovation, French based Spinali Design with their UV app based textile senor to provide sunburn alerts, as well as opportunities for design technology innovation through UNICEF’s ‘Wearables for Good’ design challenge to improve the quality of life in disadvantaged communities. Exhibition As part of Artisan’s Wearnext exhibition, the work was on public display from 25 July to 7 November 2015 and received the following media coverage: WEARNEXT ONLINE LISTINGS AND MEDIA COVERAGE: http://indulgemagazine.net/wear-next/ http://www.weekendnotes.com/wear-next-exhibition-gallery-artisan/ http://concreteplayground.com/brisbane/event/wear-next_/ http://www.nationalcraftinitiative.com.au/news_and_events/event/48/wear-next http://bneart.com/whats-on/wear-next_/ http://creativelysould.tumblr.com/post/124899079611/creative-weekend-art-edition http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/smartly-dressed-the-future-of-wearable-technology/6744374 http://couriermail.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx RADIO COVERAGE http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/wear-next-exhibition-whats-next-for-wearable-technology/6745986 TELEVISION COVERAGE http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/wear-next-exhibition-whats-next-for-wearable-technology/6745986 https://au.news.yahoo.com/video/watch/29439742/how-you-could-soon-be-wearing-smart-clothes/#page1

The Context-integrity of the global carbon regime: The relevance and impact of the World Trade Organization

In the study of the integrity of the global carbon regime there are a number of institutions that must be considered for their impacts on this system. In particular, the subject matter of this chapter is concerned with the main international institution for trade, the World Trade Organization (the WTO). Otherwise stated, this chapter is concerned with how the institutional integrity of the global carbon regime aligns with the values and policy objectives of the WTO. This is done with a view to consider whether the global carbon regime aligns with these values and objectives in a way demonstrative of context-integrity. This alignment is not a single-sided undertaking and, therefore, it is essential that the underlying values of the WTO themselves align with the global carbon regime. I suggest this is particularly crucial given the importance of the objectives of the climate change regime, and the scientific predictions of the current climate projections.

Review: Near infrared spectroscopy of faeces to evaluate the nutrition and physiology of herbivores

Near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy, usually in reflectance mode, has been applied to the analysis of faeces to measure the concentrations of constituents such as total N, fibre, tannins and delta C-13. In addition, an unusual and exciting application of faecal NIR [F.NIR] analyses is to directly predict attributes of the diet of herbivores such as crude protein and fibre contents, proportions of plant species and morphological components, diet digestibility and voluntary DM intake. This is an unusual application of NIR spectroscopy insofar as the spectral measurements are made, not on the material of interest [i.e. the diet), but on a derived material (i.e. faeces). Predictions of diet attributes from faecal spectra clearly depend on there being sufficient NIR spectral information in the diet residues present in faeces to describe the diet, although endogenous components of faeces such as undigested debris of micro-organisms from the rumen and Large intestine and secretions into the gastrointestinal tract wilt also contribute spectral information. Spectra of forage and of faeces derived from the forage are generally similar and the observed differences are principally in the spectral regions associated with constituents of forages known to be of low, or of high, digestibility. Some diet components (for example, ureal which are likely to be entirely digested apparently cannot be predicted from faecal NIR spectra because they cannot contribute to faecal spectra except through modifying the microbial and endogenous components. The errors and robustness of F.NIR calibrations to predict the crude protein concentration and digestibility of the diet of herbivores are generally comparable with those to directly predict the same attributes in forage from NIR spectra of the forage. Some attributes of the animal, such as species, gender, pregnancy status and parasite burden have been successfully discriminated into classes based on their faecal NIR spectra. Such discrimination was likely associated with differences in the diet selected and/or differences in the metabolites excreted in the faeces. NIR spectroscopy of faeces has usually involved scanning dried and ground samples in monochromators in the 400-2500nm or 1100-2500nm ranges. Results satisfactory for the purpose have also been reported for dried and ground faeces scanned using a diode array instrument in the 800-1700nm range and for wet faeces and slurries of excreta scanned with monochromators. Chemometric analysis of faecal spectra has generally used the approaches established for forage analysis. The capacity to predict many attributes of the diet, and some aspects of animal physiology, from NIR spectra of faeces is particularly useful to study the quality and quantity of the diet selected by both domestic and feral grazing herbivores and to enhance production and management of both herbivores and their grazing environment.

An imagery-based road map to tackle maladaptive motivation in clinical disorders

There is now a widespread recognition of the importance of mental imagery in a range of clinical disorders (1). This provides the potential for a transdiagnostic route to integrate some aspects of these disorders and their treatment within a common framework. This opinion piece argues that we need to understand why imagery is such a central and recurring feature, if we are to progress theories of the origin and maintenance of disorders. This will aid us in identifying therapeutic techniques that are not simply targeting imagery as a symptom, but as a manifestation of an underlying problem. As papers in this issue highlight, imagery is a central feature across many clinical disorders, but has been ascribed varying roles. For example, the involuntary occurrence of traumatic memories is a diagnostic criterion for PTSD (2), and it has been suggested that multisensory imagery of traumatic events normally serves a functional role in allowing the individual to reappraise the situation (3), but that this re-appraisal is disabled by extreme affective responses. In contrast to the disabling flashbacks associated with PTSD, depressed adults who experience suicidal ideation often report “flash forward” imagery related to suicidal acts (4), motivating them to self-harm. Socially anxious individuals who engage in visual imagery about giving a talk in public become more anxious and make more negative predictions about future performance than others who engage in more abstract, semantic processing of the past event (5). People with Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (OCD) frequently report imagery of past adverse events, and imagery seems to be associated with severity (6). The content of intrusive imagery has been related to psychotic symptoms (7), including visual images of the catastrophic fears associated with paranoia and persecution. Imagery has been argued (8) to play a role in the maintenance of psychosis through negative appraisals of imagined voices, misattribution of sensations to external sources, by the induction of negative mood states that trigger voices, and through maintenance of negative schemas. In addiction and substance dependence, Elaborated Intrusion (EI) Theory (9, 10) emphasizes the causal role that imagery plays in substance use, through its role in motivating an individual to pursue goals directed toward achieving the pleasurable outcomes associated with substance use...

Delineating environmental envelopes to improve mapping of species distributions, via a hurdle model with CART &/or MaxEnT

Species distribution modelling (SDM) typically analyses species’ presence together with some form of absence information. Ideally absences comprise observations or are inferred from comprehensive sampling. When such information is not available, then pseudo-absences are often generated from the background locations within the study region of interest containing the presences, or else absence is implied through the comparison of presences to the whole study region, e.g. as is the case in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) or Poisson point process modelling. However, the choice of which absence information to include can be both challenging and highly influential on SDM predictions (e.g. Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). In practice, the use of pseudo- or implied absences often leads to an imbalance where absences far outnumber presences. This leaves analysis highly susceptible to ‘naughty-noughts’: absences that occur beyond the envelope of the species, which can exert strong influence on the model and its predictions (Austin and Meyers, 1996). Also known as ‘excess zeros’, naughty noughts can be estimated via an overall proportion in simple hurdle or mixture models (Martin et al., 2005). However, absences, especially those that occur beyond the species envelope, can often be more diverse than presences. Here we consider an extension to excess zero models. The two-staged approach first exploits the compartmentalisation provided by classification trees (CTs) (as in O’Leary, 2008) to identify multiple sources of naughty noughts and simultaneously delineate several species envelopes. Then SDMs can be fit separately within each envelope, and for this stage, we examine both CTs (as in Falk et al., 2014) and the popular MaxEnt (Elith et al., 2006). We introduce a wider range of model performance measures to improve treatment of naughty noughts in SDM. We retain an overall measure of model performance, the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver-Operating Curve (ROC), but focus on its constituent measures of false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR), and how these relate to the threshold in the predicted probability of presence that delimits predicted presence from absence. We also propose error rates more relevant to users of predictions: false omission rate (FOR), the chance that a predicted absence corresponds to (and hence wastes) an observed presence, and the false discovery rate (FDR), reflecting those predicted (or potential) presences that correspond to absence. A high FDR may be desirable since it could help target future search efforts, whereas zero or low FOR is desirable since it indicates none of the (often valuable) presences have been ignored in the SDM. For illustration, we chose Bradypus variegatus, a species that has previously been published as an exemplar species for MaxEnt, proposed by Phillips et al. (2006). We used CTs to increasingly refine the species envelope, starting with the whole study region (E0), eliminating more and more potential naughty noughts (E1–E3). When combined with an SDM fit within the species envelope, the best CT SDM had similar AUC and FPR to the best MaxEnt SDM, but otherwise performed better. The FNR and FOR were greatly reduced, suggesting that CTs handle absences better. Interestingly, MaxEnt predictions showed low discriminatory performance, with the most common predicted probability of presence being in the same range (0.00-0.20) for both true absences and presences. In summary, this example shows that SDMs can be improved by introducing an initial hurdle to identify naughty noughts and partition the envelope before applying SDMs. This improvement was barely detectable via AUC and FPR yet visible in FOR, FNR, and the comparison of predicted probability of presence distribution for pres/absence.

Development of near infrared analysis of faeces to estimate non-grass proportions in diets selected by cattle grazing tropical pastures

Grass (monocots) and non-grass (dicots) proportions in ruminant diets are important nutritionally because the non-grasses are usually higher in nutritive value, particularly protein, than the grasses, especially in tropical pastures. For ruminants grazing tropical pastures where the grasses are C-4 species and most non-grasses are C-3 species, the ratio of C-13/C-12 in diet and faeces, measured as delta C-13 parts per thousand, is proportional to dietary non-grass%. This paper describes the development of a faecal near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy calibration equation for predicting faecal delta C-13 from which dietary grass and non-grass proportions can be calculated. Calibration development used cattle faeces derived from diets containing only C-3 non-grass and C-4 grass components, and a series of expansion and validation steps was employed to develop robustness and predictive reliability. The final calibration equation contained 1637 samples and faecal delta C-13 range (parts per thousand) of [12.27]-[27.65]. Calibration statistics were: standard error of calibration (SEC) of 0.78, standard error of cross-validation (SECV) of 0.80, standard deviation (SD) of reference values of 3.11 and R-2 of 0.94. Validation statistics for the final calibration equation applied to 60 samples were: standard error of prediction (SEP) of 0.87, bias of -0.15, R-2 of 0.92 and RPD of 3.16. The calibration equation was also tested on faeces from diets containing C-4 non-grass species or temperate C-3 grass species. Faecal delta C-13 predictions indicated that the spectral basis of the calibration was not related to C-13/C-12 ratios per se but to consistent differences between grasses and non-grasses in chemical composition and that the differences were modified by photosynthetic pathway. Thus, although the calibration equation could not be used to make valid faecal delta C-13 predictions when the diet contained either C-3 grass or C-4 non-grass, it could be used to make useful estimates of dietary non-grass proportions. It could also be ut :sed to make useful estimates of non-grass in mixed C-3 grass/non-grass diets by applying a modified formula to calculate non-grass from predicted faecal delta C-13. The development of a robust faecal-NIR calibration equation for estimating non-grass proportions in the diets of grazing cattle demonstrated a novel and useful application of NIR spectroscopy in agriculture.

A PPP AND CNDO Study of Dithiocarbonic Antonic Derivatives

The application of the CNDO and PPP-CI methods to N,N-dimethyl dithiocarbamate, O-methyl dithiocarbonate (methyl xanthate) and methyl trithiocarbonate ions for the elucidation of electronic structure and electronic spectra is described. The CNDO/2 calculations have been used to obtain the one centre core integrals of the ionic compounds required in calculating the pi electronic spectra of these molecules using the PPP method. The calculated spectra are in good agreement with the experiment. The atomic charge densities determined for alkyl xanthate, dithiocarbamate and trithiocarbonate ions support the earlier qualitative predictions regarding electronic structure from spectroscopic and other studies.

Management of plant invasions mediated by frugivore interactions

1. Some of the most damaging invasive plants are dispersed by frugivores and this is an area of emerging importance in weed management. It highlights the need for practical information on how frugivores affect weed population dynamics and spread, how frugivore populations are affected by weeds and what management recommendations are available. 2. Fruit traits influence frugivore choice. Fruit size, the presence of an inedible peel, defensive chemistry, crop size and phenology may all be useful traits for consideration in screening and eradication programmes. By considering the effect of these traits on the probability, quality and quantity of seed dispersal, it may be possible to rank invasive species by their desirability to frugivores. Fruit traits can also be manipulated with biocontrol agents. 3. Functional groups of frugivores can be assembled according to broad species groupings, and further refined according to size, gape size, pre- and post-ingestion processing techniques and movement patterns, to predict dispersal and establishment patterns for plant introductions. 4. Landscape fragmentation can increase frugivore dispersal of invasives, as many invasive plants and dispersers readily use disturbed matrix environments and fragment edges. Dispersal to particular landscape features, such as perches and edges, can be manipulated to function as seed sinks if control measures are concentrated in these areas. 5. Where invasive plants comprise part of the diet of native frugivores, there may be a conservation conflict between control of the invasive and maintaining populations of the native frugivore, especially where other threats such as habitat destruction have reduced populations of native fruit species. 6. Synthesis and applications. Development of functional groups of frugivore-dispersed invasive plants and dispersers will enable us to develop predictions for novel dispersal interactions at both population and community scales. Increasingly sophisticated mechanistic seed dispersal models combined with spatially explicit simulations show much promise for providing weed managers with the information they need to develop strategies for surveying, eradicating and managing plant invasions. Possible conservation conflicts mean that understanding the nature of the invasive plant-frugivore interaction is essential for determining appropriate management.

An analysis of theories of search and search behavior

Theories of search and search behavior can be used to glean insights and generate hypotheses about how people interact with retrieval systems. This paper examines three such theories, the long standing Information Foraging Theory, along with the more recently proposed Search Economic Theory and the Interactive Probability Ranking Principle. Our goal is to develop a model for ad-hoc topic retrieval using each approach, all within a common framework, in order to (1) determine what predictions each approach makes about search behavior, and (2) show the relationships, equivalences and differences between the approaches. While each approach takes a different perspective on modeling searcher interactions, we show that under certain assumptions, they lead to similar hypotheses regarding search behavior. Moreover, we show that the models are complementary to each other, but operate at different levels (i.e., sessions, patches and situations). We further show how the differences between the approaches lead to new insights into the theories and new models. This contribution will not only lead to further theoretical developments, but also enables practitioners to employ one of the three equivalent models depending on the data available.

Survival probability for a diffusive process on a growing domain

We consider the motion of a diffusive population on a growing domain, 0 < x < L(t ), which is motivated by various applications in developmental biology. Individuals in the diffusing population, which could represent molecules or cells in a developmental scenario, undergo two different kinds of motion: (i) undirected movement, characterized by a diffusion coefficient, D, and (ii) directed movement, associated with the underlying domain growth. For a general class of problems with a reflecting boundary at x = 0, and an absorbing boundary at x = L(t ), we provide an exact solution to the partial differential equation describing the evolution of the population density function, C(x,t ). Using this solution, we derive an exact expression for the survival probability, S(t ), and an accurate approximation for the long-time limit, S = limt→∞ S(t ). Unlike traditional analyses on a nongrowing domain, where S ≡ 0, we show that domain growth leads to a very different situation where S can be positive. The theoretical tools developed and validated in this study allow us to distinguish between situations where the diffusive population reaches the moving boundary at x = L(t ) from other situations where the diffusive population never reaches the moving boundary at x = L(t ). Making this distinction is relevant to certain applications in developmental biology, such as the development of the enteric nervous system (ENS). All theoretical predictions are verified by implementing a discrete stochastic model.