Nurse likelihood to report a pediatric medication error: Examination of the "pre-reporting" period

Each year, hospitalized patients experience 1.5 million preventable injuries from medication errors and hospitals incur an additional $3.5 billion in cost (Aspden, Wolcott, Bootman, & Cronenwatt; (2007). It is believed that error reporting is one way to learn about factors contributing to medication errors. And yet, an estimated 50% of medication errors go unreported. This period of medication error pre-reporting, with few exceptions, is underexplored. The literature focuses on error prevention and management, but lacks a description of the period of introspection and inner struggle over whether to report an error and resulting likelihood to report. Reporting makes a nurse vulnerable to reprimand, legal liability, and even threat to licensure. For some nurses this state may invoke a disparity between a person‘s belief about him or herself as a healer and the undeniable fact of the error.^ This study explored the medication error reporting experience. Its purpose was to inform nurses, educators, organizational leaders, and policy-makers about the medication error pre-reporting period, and to contribute to a framework for further investigation. From a better understanding of factors that contribute to or detract from the likelihood of an individual to report an error, interventions can be identified to help the nurse come to a psychologically healthy resolution and help increase reporting of error in order to learn from error and reduce the possibility of future similar error.^ The research question was: "What factors contribute to a nurse's likelihood to report an error?" The specific aims of the study were to: (1) describe participant nurses' perceptions of medication error reporting; (2) describe participant explanations of the emotional, cognitive, and physical reactions to making a medication error; (3) identify pre-reporting conditions that make it less likely for a nurse to report a medication error; and (4) identify pre-reporting conditions that make it more likely for a nurse to report a medication error.^ A qualitative research study was conducted to explore the medication error experience and in particular the pre-reporting period from the perspective of the nurse. A total of 54 registered nurses from a large private free-standing not-for-profit children's hospital in the southwestern United States participated in group interviews. The results describe the experience of the nurse as well as the physical, emotional, and cognitive responses to the realization of the commission of a medication error. The results also reveal factors that make it more and less likely to report a medication error.^ It is clear from this study that upon realization that he or she has made a medication error, a nurse's foremost concern is for the safety of the patient. Fear was also described by each group of nurses. The nurses described a fear of several things including physician reaction, manager reaction, peer reaction, as well as family reaction and possible lack of trust as a result. Another universal response was the description of a struggle with guilt, shame, imperfection, blaming oneself, and questioning one's competence.^

InGen of creative production in the health sciences: A workbook companion to innovation generation

InGen of Creative Production in the Health Sciences is a compendium of innovative thinking exercises for individuals and groups, derived from an eclectic array of practical guides for professionals in a variety of fields. Segmented into five subcategories across twenty two chapters, the effort seeks to make techniques for increasing innovative problem solving more accessible to a diverse audience of problem solvers. The chapters of Roberta Ness. Innovation Generation (2012, Oxford University Press) provide the themes for each of the chapters in the workbook. It is intended that those who read Ness. Innovation Generation will benefit from practicing the constructs of innovative thinking exemplified in each exercise.^ The methods used to gather data, in this case mostly innovative thinking exercises, included literature reviews of existing innovative thinking tools, classroom materials, and theory-driven exploration of exercises to fill in gaps in extant materials. Specifically, Google.com and Amazon.com searches were conducted using the terms “innovation,” “innovative,” “innovator,” “creative,” “novelty,” “thinking,” together with some variance of “book,” “workbook,” and “exercise.” The results were sorted thematically to show correspondence with the themes in Ness (2012) and compared to suggested best practices of 50 years of scientific research on innovative thinking. Where themes were suggested by Ness (2012) and peer-reviewed research on innovation but unavailable in published innovation thinking workbooks, new exercises were developed. The five type subcategories into which these results were organized are: individual direct, individual indirect, group direct, group indirect and probing question. It is anticipated that the five type subcategories and spectrum of themes will equip problem solvers in a variety of capacities.^

Attitudes of dental students to hand hygiene practices at a dental school

Objectives. The purpose of this study was to elucidate behavioral determinants (prevailing attitudes and beliefs) of hand hygiene practices among undergraduate dental students in a dental school. ^ Methods. Statistical modeling using the Integrative Behavioral Model (IBM) prediction was utilized to develop a questionnaire for evaluating behavioral perceptions of hand hygiene practices by dental school students. Self-report questionnaires were given to second, third and fourth year undergraduate dental students. Models representing two distinct hand hygiene practices, termed "elective in-dental school hand hygiene practice" and "inherent in-dental school hand hygiene practice" were tested using linear regression analysis. ^ Results. 58 responses were received (24.5%); the sample mean age was 26.6 years old and females comprised 51%. In our models, elective in-dental school hand hygiene practice and inherent in-dental school hand hygiene practice, explained 40% and 28%, respectively, of the variance in behavioral intention. Translation of community hand hygiene practice to the dental school setting is the predominant driver of elective hand hygiene practice. Intended elective in-school hand hygiene practice is further significantly predicted by students' self-efficacy. Students' attitudes, peer pressure of other dental students and clinic administrators, and role modeling had minimal effects. Inherent hand hygiene intent was strongly predicted by students' beliefs in the benefits of the activity and, to a lesser extent, role modeling. Inherent and elective community behaviors were insignificant. ^ Conclusions. This study provided significant insights into dental student's hand hygiene behavior and can form the basis for an effective behavioral intervention program designed to improve hand hygiene compliance.^

Effects of a health advocacy program to promote physical activity and nutrition behaviors among adolescents: An evaluation of the Young Leaders for Healthy Change program

Background. This study was designed to evaluate the effects of the Young Leaders for Healthy Change program, an internet-delivered program in the school setting that emphasized health advocacy skills-development, on nutrition and physical activity behaviors among older adolescents (13–18 years). The program consisted of online curricular modules, training modules, social media, peer and parental support, and a community service project. Module content was developed based on Social Cognitive Theory and known determinants of behavior for older adolescents. ^ Methods. Of the 283 students who participated in the fall 2011 YL program, 38 students participated in at least ten of the 12 weeks and were eligible for this study. This study used a single group-only pretest/posttest evaluation design. Participants were 68% female, 58% white/Caucasian, 74% 10th or 11th graders, and 89% mostly A and/or B students. The primary behavioral outcomes for this analysis were participation in 60-minutes of physical activity per day, 20-minutes of vigorous- or moderate- intensity physical activity (MVPA) participation per day, television and computer time, fruit and vegetable (FV) intake, sugar-sweetened beverage intake, and consumption of breakfast, home-cooked meals, and fast food. Other outcomes included knowledge, beliefs, and attitudes related to healthy eating, physical activity, and advocacy skills. ^ Findings. Among the 38 participants, no significant changes in any variables were observed. However, among those who did not previously meet behavioral goals there was an 89% increase in students who participated in more than 20 minutes of MVPA per day and a 58% increase in students who ate home-cooked meals 5–7 days per week. The majority of participants met program goals related to knowledge, beliefs, and attitudes prior to the start of the program. Participants reported either maintaining or improving to the goal at posttest for all items except FV intake knowledge, taste and affordability of healthy foods, interest in teaching others about being healthy, and ease of finding ways to advocate in the community. ^ Conclusions. The results of this evaluation indicated that promoting healthy behaviors requires different strategies than maintaining healthy behaviors among high school students. In the school setting, programs need to target the promotion and maintenance of health behaviors to engage all students who participate in the program as part of a class or club activity. Tailoring the program using screening and modifying strategies to meet the needs of all students may increase the potential reach of the program. The Transtheoretical Model may provide information on how to develop a tailored program. Additional research on how to utilize the constructs of TTM effectively among high school students needs to be conducted. Further evaluation studies should employ a more expansive evaluation to assess the long-term effectiveness of health advocacy programming.^

Something real: A social marketing approach to smoking prevention among Montevideo youth

Uruguay has some of the strictest tobacco-control laws in Latin America. Despite this, youth smoking rates in Uruguay are amongst the highest in South America. Thus, it is important to identify strategies to prevent youth smoking in Uruguay. The current qualitative research study sought to identify intrapersonal and socioenvironmental factors that are associated with smoking among middle school youth in Uruguay. It also sought to develop potential prevention strategies and media messages that would resonate with youth for a social media campaign. The study was grounded in social cognitive theory and the theory of reasoned action/planned behavior, among other behavioral science theories; anthropological perspectives were also considered. To achieve these goals, 29 group and individual structured interviews were conducted in two private middle schools catering to lower and higher SES youth in Montevideo, Uruguay during the summer of 2012. One hundred and three study participants, including students, parents, and teachers, were interviewed. The structured interviews were recorded, transcribed, translated, back translated, coded and analyzed. The study findings show that positive attitudes towards smoking (i.e. to be seen, to increase status, to ensure women's equality, to looking old, and to service as a rite of passage), delinquent behavior (i.e. transgression/deviant behavior), social norms that support smoking (i.e. peer pressure and modeling, group membership/sense of belonging, parental modeling, and family support), easy access and availability to tobacco (i.e. retails stores) were factors associated with youth smoking. Potential protective factors may include parental support, negative attitudes towards smoking, sports/music, and smoke-free environments. Because study participants are accustomed to government-sponsored strong countermarketing graphic imaging, study participants selected even stronger images and messages as the preferred way to receive tobacco prevention messages. Something Real ("Algo Real") was a theme that resonated with the participants and chosen as the name for the proposed campaign. This campaign was designed as a multiple component intervention that included mass, school base, and family based strategies to prevent tobacco use. Some intervention materials specific to these intervention components were developed to target relevant intrapersonal and socioenvironmental factors identified above. These materials will be tested in future pilot studies and larger scale evaluation with this population, outside the scope of this dissertation. ^

Two historical maps from nineteenth-century Palestine, with links to digitized maps in shapefile format

Reconstructing past landscapes from historical maps requires quantifying the accuracy and completeness of these sources. The accuracy and completeness of two historical maps of the same period covering the same area in Israel were examined: the 1:63,360 British Palestine Exploration Fund map (1871-1877) and the 1:100,000 French Levés en Galilée (LG) map (1870). These maps cover the mountainous area of the Galilee (northern Israel), a region with significant natural and topographical diversity, and a long history of human presence. Land-cover features from both maps, as well as the contours drawn on the LG map, were digitized. The overall correspondence between land-cover features shown on both maps was 59% and we found that the geo-referencing method employed (transformation type and source of control points) did not significantly affect these correspondence measures. Both maps show that in the 1870s, 35% of the Galilee was covered by Mediterranean maquis, with less than 8% of the area used for permanent agricultural cropland (e.g., plantations). This article presents how the reliability of the maps was assessed by using two spatial historical sources, and how land-cover classes that were mapped with lower certainty and completeness are identified. Some of the causes that led to observed differences between the maps, including mapping scale, time of year, and the interests of the surveyors, are also identified.

Reliability issues related to the usage of Cloud Computing in Critical Infrastructures

The use of cloud computing is extending to all kind of systems, including the ones that are part of Critical Infrastructures, and measuring the reliability is becoming more difficult. Computing is becoming the 5th utility, in part thanks to the use of cloud services. Cloud computing is used now by all types of systems and organizations, including critical infrastructure, creating hidden inter-dependencies on both public and private cloud models. This paper investigates the use of cloud computing by critical infrastructure systems, the reliability and continuity of services risks associated with their use by critical systems. Some examples are presented of their use by different critical industries, and even when the use of cloud computing by such systems is not widely extended, there is a future risk that this paper presents. The concepts of macro and micro dependability and the model we introduce are useful for inter-dependency definition and for analyzing the resilience of systems that depend on other systems, specifically in the cloud model.

Testing a Cloud Provider Network for Hybrid P2P and Cloud Streaming Architectures

The number of online real-time streaming services deployed over network topologies like P2P or centralized ones has remarkably increased in the recent years. This has revealed the lack of networks that are well prepared to respond to this kind of traffic. A hybrid distribution network can be an efficient solution for real-time streaming services. This paper contains the experimental results of streaming distribution in a hybrid architecture that consist of mixed connections among P2P and Cloud nodes that can interoperate together. We have chosen to represent the P2P nodes as Planet Lab machines over the world and the cloud nodes using a Cloud provider's network. First we present an experimental validation of the Cloud infrastructure's ability to distribute streaming sessions with respect to some key streaming QoS parameters: jitter, throughput and packet losses. Next we show the results obtained from different test scenarios, when a hybrid distribution network is used. The scenarios measure the improvement of the multimedia QoS parameters, when nodes in the streaming distribution network (located in different continents) are gradually moved into the Cloud provider infrastructure. The overall conclusion is that the QoS of a streaming service can be efficiently improved, unlike in traditional P2P systems and CDN, by deploying a hybrid streaming architecture. This enhancement can be obtained by strategic placing of certain distribution network nodes into the Cloud provider infrastructure, taking advantage of the reduced packet loss and low latency that exists among its datacenters.

Contribution to multiuser videoconferencing systems based on cloud computing

Multi-user videoconferencing systems offer communication between more than two users, who are able to interact through their webcams, microphones and other components. The use of these systems has been increased recently due to, on the one hand, improvements in Internet access, networks of companies, universities and houses, whose available bandwidth has been increased whilst the delay in sending and receiving packets has decreased. On the other hand, the advent of Rich Internet Applications (RIA) means that a large part of web application logic and control has started to be implemented on the web browsers. This has allowed developers to create web applications with a level of complexity comparable to traditional desktop applications, running on top of the Operating Systems. More recently the use of Cloud Computing systems has improved application scalability and involves a reduction in the price of backend systems. This offers the possibility of implementing web services on the Internet with no need to spend a lot of money when deploying infrastructures and resources, both hardware and software. Nevertheless there are not many initiatives that aim to implement videoconferencing systems taking advantage of Cloud systems. This dissertation proposes a set of techniques, interfaces and algorithms for the implementation of videoconferencing systems in public and private Cloud Computing infrastructures. The mechanisms proposed here are based on the implementation of a basic videoconferencing system that runs on the web browser without any previous installation requirements. To this end, the development of this thesis starts from a RIA application with current technologies that allow users to access their webcams and microphones from the browser, and to send captured data through their Internet connections. Furthermore interfaces have been implemented to allow end users to participate in videoconferencing rooms that are managed in different Cloud provider servers. To do so this dissertation starts from the results obtained from the previous techniques and backend resources were implemented in the Cloud. A traditional videoconferencing service which was implemented in the department was modified to meet typical Cloud Computing infrastructure requirements. This allowed us to validate whether Cloud Computing public infrastructures are suitable for the traffic generated by this kind of system. This analysis focused on the network level and processing capacity and stability of the Cloud Computing systems. In order to improve this validation several other general considerations were taken in order to cover more cases, such as multimedia data processing in the Cloud, as research activity has increased in this area in recent years. The last stage of this dissertation is the design of a new methodology to implement these kinds of applications in hybrid clouds reducing the cost of videoconferencing systems. Finally, this dissertation opens up a discussion about the conclusions obtained throughout this study, resulting in useful information from the different stages of the implementation of videoconferencing systems in Cloud Computing systems. RESUMEN Los sistemas de videoconferencia multiusuario permiten la comunicación entre más de dos usuarios que pueden interactuar a través de cámaras de video, micrófonos y otros elementos. En los últimos años el uso de estos sistemas se ha visto incrementado gracias, por un lado, a la mejora de las redes de acceso en las conexiones a Internet en empresas, universidades y viviendas, que han visto un aumento del ancho de banda disponible en dichas conexiones y una disminución en el retardo experimentado por los datos enviados y recibidos. Por otro lado también ayudó la aparación de las Aplicaciones Ricas de Internet (RIA) con las que gran parte de la lógica y del control de las aplicaciones web comenzó a ejecutarse en los mismos navegadores. Esto permitió a los desarrolladores la creación de aplicaciones web cuya complejidad podía compararse con la de las tradicionales aplicaciones de escritorio, ejecutadas directamente por los sistemas operativos. Más recientemente el uso de sistemas de Cloud Computing ha mejorado la escalabilidad y el abaratamiento de los costes para sistemas de backend, ofreciendo la posibilidad de implementar servicios Web en Internet sin la necesidad de grandes desembolsos iniciales en las áreas de infraestructuras y recursos tanto hardware como software. Sin embargo no existen aún muchas iniciativas con el objetivo de realizar sistemas de videoconferencia que aprovechen las ventajas del Cloud. Esta tesis doctoral propone un conjunto de técnicas, interfaces y algoritmos para la implentación de sistemas de videoconferencia en infraestructuras tanto públicas como privadas de Cloud Computing. Las técnicas propuestas en la tesis se basan en la realización de un servicio básico de videoconferencia que se ejecuta directamente en el navegador sin la necesidad de instalar ningún tipo de aplicación de escritorio. Para ello el desarrollo de esta tesis parte de una aplicación RIA con tecnologías que hoy en día permiten acceder a la cámara y al micrófono directamente desde el navegador, y enviar los datos que capturan a través de la conexión de Internet. Además se han implementado interfaces que permiten a usuarios finales la participación en salas de videoconferencia que se ejecutan en servidores de proveedores de Cloud. Para ello se partió de los resultados obtenidos en las técnicas anteriores de ejecución de aplicaciones en el navegador y se implementaron los recursos de backend en la nube. Además se modificó un servicio ya existente implementado en el departamento para adaptarlo a los requisitos típicos de las infraestructuras de Cloud Computing. Alcanzado este punto se procedió a analizar si las infraestructuras propias de los proveedores públicos de Cloud Computing podrían soportar el tráfico generado por los sistemas que se habían adaptado. Este análisis se centró tanto a nivel de red como a nivel de capacidad de procesamiento y estabilidad de los sistemas. Para los pasos de análisis y validación de los sistemas Cloud se tomaron consideraciones más generales para abarcar casos como el procesamiento de datos multimedia en la nube, campo en el que comienza a haber bastante investigación en los últimos años. Como último paso se ideó una metodología de implementación de este tipo de aplicaciones para que fuera posible abaratar los costes de los sistemas de videoconferencia haciendo uso de clouds híbridos. Finalmente en la tesis se abre una discusión sobre las conclusiones obtenidas a lo largo de este amplio estudio, obteniendo resultados útiles en las distintas etapas de implementación de los sistemas de videoconferencia en la nube.

The new cloud computing paradigm: the way to IT seen as a utility

In the present competitive environment, companies are wondering how to reduce their IT costs while increasing their efficiency and agility to react when changes in the business processes are required. Cloud Computing is the latest paradigm to optimize the use of IT resources considering ?everything as a service? and receiving these services from the Cloud (Internet) instead of owning and managing hardware and software assets. The benefits from the model are clear. However, there are also concerns and issues to be solved before Cloud Computing spreads across the different industries. This model will allow a pay-per-use model for the IT services and many benefits like cost savings, agility to react when business demands changes and simplicity because there will not be any infrastructure to operate and administrate. It will be comparable to the well known utilities like electricity, water or gas companies. However, this paper underlines several risk factors of the model. Leading technology companies should research on solutions to minimize the risks described in this article. Keywords - Cloud Computing, Utility Computing, Elastic Computing, Enterprise Agility

Estudio probabilista del daño por choque según la metodología PEER. Aplicación a un paso superior sísmicamente aislado

En países de sismicidad moderada es habitual el uso de puentes cuyo tablero está unido mediante apoyos elastoméricos y/o deslizantes, tanto a las pilas como a los estribos. La principal vulnerabilidad sísmica de estos puentes está asociada a los choques. Dicha vulnerabilidad puede valorarse estimando la probabilidad de que se produzca un determinado daño en un periodo de tiempo. En este artículo se plantean las líneas actuales para estudiar este problema, y se aplican al estudio de la vulnerabilidad de un paso superior situado en la provincia de Granada, que puede considerarse como sísmicamente aislado. El marco del estudio es la metodología del Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, cuya aplicación se ha adaptado al caso estudiado. En el artículo se describen cada una de las etapas de que consta, aunque se presta especial atención a la identificación y caracterización de los daños susceptibles de producirse. El modelo de la estructura, que debe permitir una adecuada caracterización de los choques, también será presentado en detalle. Dado que el puente es representativo de una gran cantidad de estructuras del inventario construido en España, los resultados son doblemente importantes. Por una parte, sirven de guía para la aplicación de esta metodología a estructuras similares. Y por otra, proporcionan valores de probabilidades que pueden servir de referencia.

Peer Assessment and Self-assessment: Effective Learning Tools in Higher Education.

When used appropriately, self- and peer-assessment are very effective learning tools. In the present work, instructor formative assessment and feedback, self-assessment (SA), and peer-assessment (PA) have been compared. During the first part of a semester, the students followed a continuous formative assessment. Subsequently, they were divided into two subgroups based on similar performances. One subgroup performed SAs, and the other followedPAduring the last part of the course. The performances of the two groups in solving problems were compared. Results suggest that PA is a more effective learning tool than SA, and both are more effective than instructor formative assessment. However, a survey that was conducted at the end of the experiment showed higher student confidence in instructor assessment than in PA. The students recognized the usefulness of acting as peer assessors, but believed that SA helped them more than PA.

Distributed, layered and reliable computing nets to represent neuronal receptive fields

Abstract. Receptive fields of retinal and other sensory neurons show a large variety of spatiotemporal linear and non linear types of responses to local stimuli. In visual neurons, these responses present either asymmetric sensitive zones or center-surround organization. In most cases, the nature of the responses suggests the existence of a kind of distributed computation prior to the integration by the final cell which is evidently supported by the anatomy. We describe a new kind of discrete and continuous filters to model the kind of computations taking place in the receptive fields of retinal cells. To show their performance in the analysis of diferent non-trivial neuron-like structures, we use a computer tool specifically programmed by the authors to that efect. This tool is also extended to study the efect of lesions on the whole performance of our model nets.

Methodologies for Collision Risk Computation = Metodologías para Cálculo de Riesgo de Colisión

Esta tesis aborda metodologías para el cálculo de riesgo de colisión de satélites. La minimización del riesgo de colisión se debe abordar desde dos puntos de vista distintos. Desde el punto de vista operacional, es necesario filtrar los objetos que pueden presentar un encuentro entre todos los objetos que comparten el espacio con un satélite operacional. Puesto que las órbitas, del objeto operacional y del objeto envuelto en la colisión, no se conocen perfectamente, la geometría del encuentro y el riesgo de colisión deben ser evaluados. De acuerdo con dicha geometría o riesgo, una maniobra evasiva puede ser necesaria para evitar la colisión. Dichas maniobras implican un consumo de combustible que impacta en la capacidad de mantenimiento orbital y por tanto de la visa útil del satélite. Por tanto, el combustible necesario a lo largo de la vida útil de un satélite debe ser estimado en fase de diseño de la misión para una correcta definición de su vida útil, especialmente para satélites orbitando en regímenes orbitales muy poblados. Los dos aspectos, diseño de misión y aspectos operacionales en relación con el riesgo de colisión están abordados en esta tesis y se resumen en la Figura 3. En relación con los aspectos relacionados con el diseño de misión (parte inferior de la figura), es necesario evaluar estadísticamente las características de de la población espacial y las teorías que permiten calcular el número medio de eventos encontrados por una misión y su capacidad de reducir riesgo de colisión. Estos dos aspectos definen los procedimientos más apropiados para reducir el riesgo de colisión en fase operacional. Este aspecto es abordado, comenzando por la teoría descrita en [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2006]T.14 e implementada por el autor de esta tesis en la herramienta ARES [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2004b]T.15 proporcionada por ESA para la evaluación de estrategias de evitación de colisión. Esta teoría es extendida en esta tesis para considerar las características de los datos orbitales disponibles en las fases operacionales de un satélite (sección 4.3.3). Además, esta teoría se ha extendido para considerar riesgo máximo de colisión cuando la incertidumbre de las órbitas de objetos catalogados no es conocida (como se da el caso para los TLE), y en el caso de querer sólo considerar riesgo de colisión catastrófico (sección 4.3.2.3). Dichas mejoras se han incluido en la nueva versión de ARES [Domínguez-González and Sánchez-Ortiz, 2012b]T.12 puesta a disposición a través de [SDUP,2014]R.60. En fase operacional, los catálogos que proporcionan datos orbitales de los objetos espaciales, son procesados rutinariamente, para identificar posibles encuentros que se analizan en base a algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo de colisión para proponer maniobras de evasión. Actualmente existe una única fuente de datos públicos, el catálogo TLE (de sus siglas en inglés, Two Line Elements). Además, el Joint Space Operation Center (JSpOC) Americano proporciona mensajes con alertas de colisión (CSM) cuando el sistema de vigilancia americano identifica un posible encuentro. En función de los datos usados en fase operacional (TLE o CSM), la estrategia de evitación puede ser diferente debido a las características de dicha información. Es preciso conocer las principales características de los datos disponibles (respecto a la precisión de los datos orbitales) para estimar los posibles eventos de colisión encontrados por un satélite a lo largo de su vida útil. En caso de los TLE, cuya precisión orbital no es proporcionada, la información de precisión orbital derivada de un análisis estadístico se puede usar también en el proceso operacional así como en el diseño de la misión. En caso de utilizar CSM como base de las operaciones de evitación de colisiones, se conoce la precisión orbital de los dos objetos involucrados. Estas características se han analizado en detalle, evaluando estadísticamente las características de ambos tipos de datos. Una vez concluido dicho análisis, se ha analizado el impacto de utilizar TLE o CSM en las operaciones del satélite (sección 5.1). Este análisis se ha publicado en una revista especializada [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015b]T.3. En dicho análisis, se proporcionan recomendaciones para distintas misiones (tamaño del satélite y régimen orbital) en relación con las estrategias de evitación de colisión para reducir el riesgo de colisión de manera significativa. Por ejemplo, en el caso de un satélite en órbita heliosíncrona en régimen orbital LEO, el valor típico del ACPL que se usa de manera extendida es 10-4. Este valor no es adecuado cuando los esquemas de evitación de colisión se realizan sobre datos TLE. En este caso, la capacidad de reducción de riesgo es prácticamente nula (debido a las grandes incertidumbres de los datos TLE) incluso para tiempos cortos de predicción. Para conseguir una reducción significativa del riesgo, sería necesario usar un ACPL en torno a 10-6 o inferior, produciendo unas 10 alarmas al año por satélite (considerando predicciones a un día) o 100 alarmas al año (con predicciones a tres días). Por tanto, la principal conclusión es la falta de idoneidad de los datos TLE para el cálculo de eventos de colisión. Al contrario, usando los datos CSM, debido a su mejor precisión orbital, se puede obtener una reducción significativa del riesgo con ACPL en torno a 10-4 (considerando 3 días de predicción). Incluso 5 días de predicción pueden ser considerados con ACPL en torno a 10-5. Incluso tiempos de predicción más largos se pueden usar (7 días) con reducción del 90% del riesgo y unas 5 alarmas al año (en caso de predicciones de 5 días, el número de maniobras se mantiene en unas 2 al año). La dinámica en GEO es diferente al caso LEO y hace que el crecimiento de las incertidumbres orbitales con el tiempo de propagación sea menor. Por el contrario, las incertidumbres derivadas de la determinación orbital son peores que en LEO por las diferencias en las capacidades de observación de uno y otro régimen orbital. Además, se debe considerar que los tiempos de predicción considerados para LEO pueden no ser apropiados para el caso de un satélite GEO (puesto que tiene un periodo orbital mayor). En este caso usando datos TLE, una reducción significativa del riesgo sólo se consigue con valores pequeños de ACPL, produciendo una alarma por año cuando los eventos de colisión se predicen a un día vista (tiempo muy corto para implementar maniobras de evitación de colisión).Valores más adecuados de ACPL se encuentran entre 5•10-8 y 10-7, muy por debajo de los valores usados en las operaciones actuales de la mayoría de las misiones GEO (de nuevo, no se recomienda en este régimen orbital basar las estrategias de evitación de colisión en TLE). Los datos CSM permiten una reducción de riesgo apropiada con ACPL entre 10-5 y 10-4 con tiempos de predicción cortos y medios (10-5 se recomienda para predicciones a 5 o 7 días). El número de maniobras realizadas sería una en 10 años de misión. Se debe notar que estos cálculos están realizados para un satélite de unos 2 metros de radio. En el futuro, otros sistemas de vigilancia espacial (como el programa SSA de la ESA), proporcionarán catálogos adicionales de objetos espaciales con el objetivo de reducir el riesgo de colisión de los satélites. Para definir dichos sistemas de vigilancia, es necesario identificar las prestaciones del catalogo en función de la reducción de riesgo que se pretende conseguir. Las características del catálogo que afectan principalmente a dicha capacidad son la cobertura (número de objetos incluidos en el catalogo, limitado principalmente por el tamaño mínimo de los objetos en función de las limitaciones de los sensores utilizados) y la precisión de los datos orbitales (derivada de las prestaciones de los sensores en relación con la precisión de las medidas y la capacidad de re-observación de los objetos). El resultado de dicho análisis (sección 5.2) se ha publicado en una revista especializada [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015a]T.2. Este análisis no estaba inicialmente previsto durante la tesis, y permite mostrar como la teoría descrita en esta tesis, inicialmente definida para facilitar el diseño de misiones (parte superior de la figura 1) se ha extendido y se puede aplicar para otros propósitos como el dimensionado de un sistema de vigilancia espacial (parte inferior de la figura 1). La principal diferencia de los dos análisis se basa en considerar las capacidades de catalogación (precisión y tamaño de objetos observados) como una variable a modificar en el caso de un diseño de un sistema de vigilancia), siendo fijas en el caso de un diseño de misión. En el caso de las salidas generadas en el análisis, todos los aspectos calculados en un análisis estadístico de riesgo de colisión son importantes para diseño de misión (con el objetivo de calcular la estrategia de evitación y la cantidad de combustible a utilizar), mientras que en el caso de un diseño de un sistema de vigilancia, los aspectos más importantes son el número de maniobras y falsas alarmas (fiabilidad del sistema) y la capacidad de reducción de riesgo (efectividad del sistema). Adicionalmente, un sistema de vigilancia espacial debe ser caracterizado por su capacidad de evitar colisiones catastróficas (evitando así in incremento dramático de la población de basura espacial), mientras que el diseño de una misión debe considerar todo tipo de encuentros, puesto que un operador está interesado en evitar tanto las colisiones catastróficas como las letales. Del análisis de las prestaciones (tamaño de objetos a catalogar y precisión orbital) requeridas a un sistema de vigilancia espacial se concluye que ambos aspectos han de ser fijados de manera diferente para los distintos regímenes orbitales. En el caso de LEO se hace necesario observar objetos de hasta 5cm de radio, mientras que en GEO se rebaja este requisito hasta los 100 cm para cubrir las colisiones catastróficas. La razón principal para esta diferencia viene de las diferentes velocidades relativas entre los objetos en ambos regímenes orbitales. En relación con la precisión orbital, ésta ha de ser muy buena en LEO para poder reducir el número de falsas alarmas, mientras que en regímenes orbitales más altos se pueden considerar precisiones medias. En relación con los aspectos operaciones de la determinación de riesgo de colisión, existen varios algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo entre dos objetos espaciales. La Figura 2 proporciona un resumen de los casos en cuanto a algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo de colisión y como se abordan en esta tesis. Normalmente se consideran objetos esféricos para simplificar el cálculo de riesgo (caso A). Este caso está ampliamente abordado en la literatura y no se analiza en detalle en esta tesis. Un caso de ejemplo se proporciona en la sección 4.2. Considerar la forma real de los objetos (caso B) permite calcular el riesgo de una manera más precisa. Un nuevo algoritmo es definido en esta tesis para calcular el riesgo de colisión cuando al menos uno de los objetos se considera complejo (sección 4.4.2). Dicho algoritmo permite calcular el riesgo de colisión para objetos formados por un conjunto de cajas, y se ha presentado en varias conferencias internacionales. Para evaluar las prestaciones de dicho algoritmo, sus resultados se han comparado con un análisis de Monte Carlo que se ha definido para considerar colisiones entre cajas de manera adecuada (sección 4.1.2.3), pues la búsqueda de colisiones simples aplicables para objetos esféricos no es aplicable a este caso. Este análisis de Monte Carlo se considera la verdad a la hora de calcular los resultados del algoritmos, dicha comparativa se presenta en la sección 4.4.4. En el caso de satélites que no se pueden considerar esféricos, el uso de un modelo de la geometría del satélite permite descartar eventos que no son colisiones reales o estimar con mayor precisión el riesgo asociado a un evento. El uso de estos algoritmos con geometrías complejas es más relevante para objetos de dimensiones grandes debido a las prestaciones de precisión orbital actuales. En el futuro, si los sistemas de vigilancia mejoran y las órbitas son conocidas con mayor precisión, la importancia de considerar la geometría real de los satélites será cada vez más relevante. La sección 5.4 presenta un ejemplo para un sistema de grandes dimensiones (satélite con un tether). Adicionalmente, si los dos objetos involucrados en la colisión tienen velocidad relativa baja (y geometría simple, Caso C en la Figura 2), la mayor parte de los algoritmos no son aplicables requiriendo implementaciones dedicadas para este caso particular. En esta tesis, uno de estos algoritmos presentado en la literatura [Patera, 2001]R.26 se ha analizado para determinar su idoneidad en distintos tipos de eventos (sección 4.5). La evaluación frete a un análisis de Monte Carlo se proporciona en la sección 4.5.2. Tras este análisis, se ha considerado adecuado para abordar las colisiones de baja velocidad. En particular, se ha concluido que el uso de algoritmos dedicados para baja velocidad son necesarios en función del tamaño del volumen de colisión proyectado en el plano de encuentro (B-plane) y del tamaño de la incertidumbre asociada al vector posición entre los dos objetos. Para incertidumbres grandes, estos algoritmos se hacen más necesarios pues la duración del intervalo en que los elipsoides de error de los dos objetos pueden intersecar es mayor. Dicho algoritmo se ha probado integrando el algoritmo de colisión para objetos con geometrías complejas. El resultado de dicho análisis muestra que este algoritmo puede ser extendido fácilmente para considerar diferentes tipos de algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo de colisión (sección 4.5.3). Ambos algoritmos, junto con el método Monte Carlo para geometrías complejas, se han implementado en la herramienta operacional de la ESA CORAM, que es utilizada para evaluar el riesgo de colisión en las actividades rutinarias de los satélites operados por ESA [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013a]T.11. Este hecho muestra el interés y relevancia de los algoritmos desarrollados para la mejora de las operaciones de los satélites. Dichos algoritmos han sido presentados en varias conferencias internacionales [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013b]T.9, [Pulido, 2014]T.7,[Grande-Olalla, 2013]T.10, [Pulido, 2014]T.5, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015c]T.1. ABSTRACT This document addresses methodologies for computation of the collision risk of a satellite. Two different approaches need to be considered for collision risk minimisation. On an operational basis, it is needed to perform a sieve of possible objects approaching the satellite, among all objects sharing the space with an operational satellite. As the orbits of both, satellite and the eventual collider, are not perfectly known but only estimated, the miss-encounter geometry and the actual risk of collision shall be evaluated. In the basis of the encounter geometry or the risk, an eventual manoeuvre may be required to avoid the conjunction. Those manoeuvres will be associated to a reduction in the fuel for the mission orbit maintenance, and thus, may reduce the satellite operational lifetime. Thus, avoidance manoeuvre fuel budget shall be estimated, at mission design phase, for a better estimation of mission lifetime, especially for those satellites orbiting in very populated orbital regimes. These two aspects, mission design and operational collision risk aspects, are summarised in Figure 3, and covered along this thesis. Bottom part of the figure identifies the aspects to be consider for the mission design phase (statistical characterisation of the space object population data and theory computing the mean number of events and risk reduction capability) which will define the most appropriate collision avoidance approach at mission operational phase. This part is covered in this work by starting from the theory described in [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2006]T.14 and implemented by this author in ARES tool [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2004b]T.15 provided by ESA for evaluation of collision avoidance approaches. This methodology has been now extended to account for the particular features of the available data sets in operational environment (section 4.3.3). Additionally, the formulation has been extended to allow evaluating risk computation approached when orbital uncertainty is not available (like the TLE case) and when only catastrophic collisions are subject to study (section 4.3.2.3). These improvements to the theory have been included in the new version of ESA ARES tool [Domínguez-González and Sánchez-Ortiz, 2012b]T.12 and available through [SDUP,2014]R.60. At the operation phase, the real catalogue data will be processed on a routine basis, with adequate collision risk computation algorithms to propose conjunction avoidance manoeuvre optimised for every event. The optimisation of manoeuvres in an operational basis is not approached along this document. Currently, American Two Line Element (TLE) catalogue is the only public source of data providing orbits of objects in space to identify eventual conjunction events. Additionally, Conjunction Summary Message (CSM) is provided by Joint Space Operation Center (JSpOC) when the American system identifies a possible collision among satellites and debris. Depending on the data used for collision avoidance evaluation, the conjunction avoidance approach may be different. The main features of currently available data need to be analysed (in regards to accuracy) in order to perform estimation of eventual encounters to be found along the mission lifetime. In the case of TLE, as these data is not provided with accuracy information, operational collision avoidance may be also based on statistical accuracy information as the one used in the mission design approach. This is not the case for CSM data, which includes the state vector and orbital accuracy of the two involved objects. This aspect has been analysed in detail and is depicted in the document, evaluating in statistical way the characteristics of both data sets in regards to the main aspects related to collision avoidance. Once the analysis of data set was completed, investigations on the impact of those features in the most convenient avoidance approaches have been addressed (section 5.1). This analysis is published in a peer-reviewed journal [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015b]T.3. The analysis provides recommendations for different mission types (satellite size and orbital regime) in regards to the most appropriate collision avoidance approach for relevant risk reduction. The risk reduction capability is very much dependent on the accuracy of the catalogue utilized to identify eventual collisions. Approaches based on CSM data are recommended against the TLE based approach. Some approaches based on the maximum risk associated to envisaged encounters are demonstrated to report a very large number of events, which makes the approach not suitable for operational activities. Accepted Collision Probability Levels are recommended for the definition of the avoidance strategies for different mission types. For example for the case of a LEO satellite in the Sun-synchronous regime, the typically used ACPL value of 10-4 is not a suitable value for collision avoidance schemes based on TLE data. In this case the risk reduction capacity is almost null (due to the large uncertainties associated to TLE data sets, even for short time-to-event values). For significant reduction of risk when using TLE data, ACPL on the order of 10-6 (or lower) seems to be required, producing about 10 warnings per year and mission (if one-day ahead events are considered) or 100 warnings per year (for three-days ahead estimations). Thus, the main conclusion from these results is the lack of feasibility of TLE for a proper collision avoidance approach. On the contrary, for CSM data, and due to the better accuracy of the orbital information when compared with TLE, ACPL on the order of 10-4 allows to significantly reduce the risk. This is true for events estimated up to 3 days ahead. Even 5 days ahead events can be considered, but ACPL values down to 10-5 should be considered in such case. Even larger prediction times can be considered (7 days) for risk reduction about 90%, at the cost of larger number of warnings up to 5 events per year, when 5 days prediction allows to keep the manoeuvre rate in 2 manoeuvres per year. Dynamics of the GEO orbits is different to that in LEO, impacting on a lower increase of orbits uncertainty along time. On the contrary, uncertainties at short prediction times at this orbital regime are larger than those at LEO due to the differences in observation capabilities. Additionally, it has to be accounted that short prediction times feasible at LEO may not be appropriate for a GEO mission due to the orbital period being much larger at this regime. In the case of TLE data sets, significant reduction of risk is only achieved for small ACPL values, producing about a warning event per year if warnings are raised one day in advance to the event (too short for any reaction to be considered). Suitable ACPL values would lay in between 5•10-8 and 10-7, well below the normal values used in current operations for most of the GEO missions (TLE-based strategies for collision avoidance at this regime are not recommended). On the contrary, CSM data allows a good reduction of risk with ACPL in between 10-5 and 10-4 for short and medium prediction times. 10-5 is recommended for prediction times of five or seven days. The number of events raised for a suitable warning time of seven days would be about one in a 10-year mission. It must be noted, that these results are associated to a 2 m radius spacecraft, impact of the satellite size are also analysed within the thesis. In the future, other Space Situational Awareness Systems (SSA, ESA program) may provide additional catalogues of objects in space with the aim of reducing the risk. It is needed to investigate which are the required performances of those catalogues for allowing such risk reduction. The main performance aspects are coverage (objects included in the catalogue, mainly limited by a minimum object size derived from sensor performances) and the accuracy of the orbital data to accurately evaluate the conjunctions (derived from sensor performance in regards to object observation frequency and accuracy). The results of these investigations (section 5.2) are published in a peer-reviewed journal [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015a]T.2. This aspect was not initially foreseen as objective of the thesis, but it shows how the theory described in the thesis, initially defined for mission design in regards to avoidance manoeuvre fuel allocation (upper part of figure 1), is extended and serves for additional purposes as dimensioning a Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) system (bottom part of figure below). The main difference between the two approaches is the consideration of the catalogue features as part of the theory which are not modified (for the satellite mission design case) instead of being an input for the analysis (in the case of the SST design). In regards to the outputs, all the features computed by the statistical conjunction analysis are of importance for mission design (with the objective of proper global avoidance strategy definition and fuel allocation), whereas for the case of SST design, the most relevant aspects are the manoeuvre and false alarm rates (defining a reliable system) and the Risk Reduction capability (driving the effectiveness of the system). In regards to the methodology for computing the risk, the SST system shall be driven by the capacity of providing the means to avoid catastrophic conjunction events (avoiding the dramatic increase of the population), whereas the satellite mission design should consider all type of encounters, as the operator is interested on avoiding both lethal and catastrophic collisions. From the analysis of the SST features (object coverage and orbital uncertainty) for a reliable system, it is concluded that those two characteristics are to be imposed differently for the different orbital regimes, as the population level is different depending on the orbit type. Coverage values range from 5 cm for very populated LEO regime up to 100 cm in the case of GEO region. The difference on this requirement derives mainly from the relative velocity of the encounters at those regimes. Regarding the orbital knowledge of the catalogues, very accurate information is required for objects in the LEO region in order to limit the number of false alarms, whereas intermediate orbital accuracy can be considered for higher orbital regimes. In regards to the operational collision avoidance approaches, several collision risk algorithms are used for evaluation of collision risk of two pair of objects. Figure 2 provides a summary of the different collision risk algorithm cases and indicates how they are covered along this document. The typical case with high relative velocity is well covered in literature for the case of spherical objects (case A), with a large number of available algorithms, that are not analysed in detailed in this work. Only a sample case is provided in section 4.2. If complex geometries are considered (Case B), a more realistic risk evaluation can be computed. New approach for the evaluation of risk in the case of complex geometries is presented in this thesis (section 4.4.2), and it has been presented in several international conferences. The developed algorithm allows evaluating the risk for complex objects formed by a set of boxes. A dedicated Monte Carlo method has also been described (section 4.1.2.3) and implemented to allow the evaluation of the actual collisions among a large number of simulation shots. This Monte Carlo runs are considered the truth for comparison of the algorithm results (section 4.4.4). For spacecrafts that cannot be considered as spheres, the consideration of the real geometry of the objects may allow to discard events which are not real conjunctions, or estimate with larger reliability the risk associated to the event. This is of particular importance for the case of large spacecrafts as the uncertainty in positions of actual catalogues does not reach small values to make a difference for the case of objects below meter size. As the tracking systems improve and the orbits of catalogued objects are known more precisely, the importance of considering actual shapes of the objects will become more relevant. The particular case of a very large system (as a tethered satellite) is analysed in section 5.4. Additionally, if the two colliding objects have low relative velocity (and simple geometries, case C in figure above), the most common collision risk algorithms fail and adequate theories need to be applied. In this document, a low relative velocity algorithm presented in the literature [Patera, 2001]R.26 is described and evaluated (section 4.5). Evaluation through comparison with Monte Carlo approach is provided in section 4.5.2. The main conclusion of this analysis is the suitability of this algorithm for the most common encounter characteristics, and thus it is selected as adequate for collision risk estimation. Its performances are evaluated in order to characterise when it can be safely used for a large variety of encounter characteristics. In particular, it is found that the need of using dedicated algorithms depend on both the size of collision volume in the B-plane and the miss-distance uncertainty. For large uncertainties, the need of such algorithms is more relevant since for small uncertainties the encounter duration where the covariance ellipsoids intersect is smaller. Additionally, its application for the case of complex satellite geometries is assessed (case D in figure above) by integrating the developed algorithm in this thesis with Patera’s formulation for low relative velocity encounters. The results of this analysis show that the algorithm can be easily extended for collision risk estimation process suitable for complex geometry objects (section 4.5.3). The two algorithms, together with the Monte Carlo method, have been implemented in the operational tool CORAM for ESA which is used for the evaluation of collision risk of ESA operated missions, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013a]T.11. This fact shows the interest and relevance of the developed algorithms for improvement of satellite operations. The algorithms have been presented in several international conferences, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013b]T.9, [Pulido, 2014]T.7,[Grande-Olalla, 2013]T.10, [Pulido, 2014]T.5, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015c]T.1.