Uncertainty assessment methodologies applied to Tritium production in fusion lithium breeding blankets

- Need of Tritium production - Neutronic objectives - The Frascati experiment - Measurements of Tritium activity

Burnup Uncertainty Analysis for PWR-HFP Exercise I-1

Burn-up credit analyses are based on depletion calculations that provide an accurate prediction of spent fuel isotopic contents, followed by criticality calculations to assess keff

Analysis of Different Uncertainty Activation Cross Section Data Libraries for LWR, ads and demo Neutron Spectra

This work is aimed to present the main differences of nuclear data uncertainties among three different nuclear data libraries: EAF-2007, EAF-2010 and SCALE-6.0, under different neutron spectra: LWR, ADS and DEMO (fusion)

Isotopic uncertainty assessment due to nuclear data uncertainties in high-burnup samples.

The accurate prediction of the spent nuclear fuel content is essential for its safe and optimized transportation, storage and management. This isotopic evolution can be predicted using powerful codes and methodologies throughout irradiation as well as cooling time periods. However, in order to have a realistic confidence level in the prediction of spent fuel isotopic content, it is desirable to determine how uncertainties affect isotopic prediction calculations by quantifying their associated uncertainties.

Uncertainty methods inactivation and inventory calculations

For a number of important nuclides, complete activation data libraries with covariance data will be produced, so that uncertainty propagation in fuel cycle codes (in this case ACAB,FISPIN, ...) can be developed and tested. Eventually, fuel inventory codes should be able to handle the complete set of uncertainty data, i.e. those of nuclear reactions (cross sections, etc.), radioactive decay and fission yield data. For this, capabilities will be developed both to produce covariance data and to propagate the uncertainties through the inventory calculations.

Reduction in Calculated Uncertainty of a Noise Map by Improving the Traffic Model Data Through Two Phases

The influence of applying European default traffic values to the making of a noise map was evaluated in a typical environment like Palma de Mallorca. To assess these default traffic values, a first model has been created and compared with measured noise levels. Subsequently a second traffic model, improving the input data used for the first one, has been created and validated according to the deviations. Different methodologies were also examined for collecting model input data that would be of higher quality, by analysing the improvement generated in the reduction in the uncertainty of the noise map introduced by the road traffic noise emission

Multi-agent Architecture for Heterogeneous Reasoning under Uncertainty Combining MSBN and Ontologies in Distributed Network Diagnosis

This article proposes a MAS architecture for network diagnosis under uncertainty. Network diagnosis is divided into two inference processes: hypothesis generation and hypothesis confirmation. The first process is distributed among several agents based on a MSBN, while the second one is carried out by agents using semantic reasoning. A diagnosis ontology has been defined in order to combine both inference processes. To drive the deliberation process, dynamic data about the influence of observations are taken during diagnosis process. In order to achieve quick and reliable diagnoses, this influence is used to choose the best action to perform. This approach has been evaluated in a P2P video streaming scenario. Computational and time improvements are highlight as conclusions.

Parametric study of the expansive joint model for cracking of concrete due to rebar corrosion

Un modelo numérico llamado elemento junta expansiva fue programado para simular la expansión mecánica del óxido y estudiar la fisuración en el hormigón circundante. El elemento junta expansiva trabaja con elementos finitos con fisura cohesiva embebida adaptable para simular la fractura del hormigón según el modelo de fisura cohesiva. Se ha comprobado que el modelo reproduce correctamente el patrón de fisuración del hormigón que se obtiene en ensayos de corrosión acelerada. En este trabajo, se realiza un estudio paramétrico del elemento junta expansiva para establecer los límites de los parámetros constitutivos del óxido. Se simula una cierta expansión variando los valores de los parámetros del óxido y se estudian la apertura de fisura y las tensiones resultantes en el hormigón. Se determina el rango de valores para los que los resultados de las simulaciones son prácticamente iguales, con el menor número posible de iteraciones.

Influence of loudspeaker directivity on the measurement uncertainty

One of the most significant aspects of a building’s acoustic behavior is the airborne sound insulation of the room façades, since this determines the protection of its inhabitants against environmental noise. For this reason, authorities in most countries have established in their acoustic regulations for buildings the minimum value of sound insulation that must be respected for façades. In order to verify compliance with legal requirements it is usual to perform acoustic measurements in the finished buildings and then compare the measurement results with the established limits. Since there is always a certain measurement uncertainty, this uncertainty must be calculated and taken into account in order to ensure compliance with specifications. The most commonly used method for measuring sound insulation on façades is the so-called Global Loudspeaker Method, specified in ISO 140-5:1998. This method uses a loudspeaker placed outside the building as a sound source. The loudspeaker directivity has a significant influence on the measurement results, and these results may change noticeably by choosing different loudspeakers, even though they all fulfill the directivity requirements of ISO 140-5. This work analyzes the influence of the loudspeaker directivity on the results of façade sound insulation measurement, and determines its contribution to measurement uncertainty. The theoretical analysis is experimentally validated by means of an intermediate precision test according to ISO 5725-3:1994, which compares the values of sound insulation obtained for a façade using various loudspeakers with different directivities

Automatic Bandwidth Estimation Strategy for High-Quality Non-Parametric Modeling based Moving Object Detection

Here, a novel and efficient moving object detection strategy by non-parametric modeling is presented. Whereas the foreground is modeled by combining color and spatial information, the background model is constructed exclusively with color information, thus resulting in a great reduction of the computational and memory requirements. The estimation of the background and foreground covariance matrices, allows us to obtain compact moving regions while the number of false detections is reduced. Additionally, the application of a tracking strategy provides a priori knowledge about the spatial position of the moving objects, which improves the performance of the Bayesian classifier

Considerations in Determining the Cost of Measurement Uncertainty Associated with Dimensional Tolerances Verification

The verification of compliance with a design specification in manufacturing requires the use of metrological instruments to check if the magnitude associated with the design specification is or not according with tolerance range. Such instrumentation and their use during the measurement process, has associated an uncertainty of measurement whose value must be related to the value of tolerance tested. Most papers dealing jointly tolerance and measurement uncertainties are mainly focused on the establishment of a relationship uncertainty-tolerance without paying much attention to the impact from the standpoint of process cost. This paper analyzes the cost-measurement uncertainty, considering uncertainty as a productive factor in the process outcome. This is done starting from a cost-tolerance model associated with the process. By means of this model the existence of a measurement uncertainty is calculated in quantitative terms of cost and its impact on the process is analyzed.

An efficient, parametric fixpoint algorithm for analysis of java bytecode

Abstract interpretation has been widely used for the analysis of object-oriented languages and, in particular, Java source and bytecode. However, while most existing work deals with the problem of flnding expressive abstract domains that track accurately the characteristics of a particular concrete property, the underlying flxpoint algorithms have received comparatively less attention. In fact, many existing (abstract interpretation based—) flxpoint algorithms rely on relatively inefHcient techniques for solving inter-procedural caligraphs or are speciflc and tied to particular analyses. We also argüe that the design of an efficient fixpoint algorithm is pivotal to supporting the analysis of large programs. In this paper we introduce a novel algorithm for analysis of Java bytecode which includes a number of optimizations in order to reduce the number of iterations. The algorithm is parametric -in the sense that it is independent of the abstract domain used and it can be applied to different domains as "plug-ins"-, multivariant, and flow-sensitive. Also, is based on a program transformation, prior to the analysis, that results in a highly uniform representation of all the features in the language and therefore simplifies analysis. Detailed descriptions of decompilation solutions are given and discussed with an example. We also provide some performance data from a preliminary implementation of the analysis.

An efficient, parametric fixpoint algorithm for incremental analysis of java bytecode

Abstract interpretation has been widely used for the analysis of object-oriented languages and, more precisely, Java source and bytecode. However, while most of the existing work deals with the problem of finding expressive abstract domains that track accurately the characteristics of a particular concrete property, the underlying fixpoint algorithms have received comparatively less attention. In fact, many existing (abstract interpretation based) fixpoint algorithms rely on relatively inefficient techniques to solve inter-procedural call graphs or are specific and tied to particular analyses. We argue that the design of an efficient fixpoint algorithm is pivotal to support the analysis of large programs. In this paper we introduce a novel algorithm for analysis of Java bytecode which includes a number of optimizations in order to reduce the number of iterations. Also, the algorithm is parametric in the sense that it is independent of the abstract domain used and it can be applied to different domains as "plug-ins". It is also incremental in the sense that, if desired, analysis data can be saved so that only a reduced amount of reanalysis is needed after a small program change, which can be instrumental for large programs. The algorithm is also multivariant and flowsensitive. Finally, another interesting characteristic of the algorithm is that it is based on a program transformation, prior to the analysis, that results in a highly uniform representation of all the features in the language and therefore simplifies analysis. Detailed descriptions of decompilation solutions are provided and discussed with an example.

Traffic uncertainty in toll motorway concessions in Spain

This study assessed the inaccuracy of the traffic estimates for toll motorway concessions in Spain. It was found that the estimates conducted by both the government and the concessionaire showed a significant bias towards overestimating traffic. The level of overestimation in Spain is even greater than that reported by other studies based on worldwide data. The notorious levels of overestimation entail severe burdens to the economics of the concessionaires that often prompt renegotiations of the contracts, which are often accepted by the government. These renegotiations usually end up with toll changes or extension of the concession terms, which have to be ultimately borne by future motorway users. It is postulated herein that the bias towards overestimating traffic in toll motorways in Spain is mostly caused by strategic issues rather than by modelling errors.

Parametric analysis of gravity offshore structures: Part 1

The objective of this paper is to analyse the influence of the variation of some parameters used in the analysis of the dynamic response of offshore structures under the action of wind generated waves. The structural response has been obtained by stochastic methods using two discretization models. One with lumped parameters, using translational degrees of freedom (d.o.f.) and the other with one-dimensional finite elements. Using each of these methods the problem has been solved with several d.o.f., analysing the influence of the number of d.o.f. on the results.