The bias in reversing the Box-Cox transformation in time series forecasting: An empirical study based on neural networks

The Box-Cox transformation is a technique mostly utilized to turn the probabilistic distribution of a time series data into approximately normal. And this helps statistical and neural models to perform more accurate forecastings. However, it introduces a bias when the reversion of the transformation is conducted with the predicted data. The statistical methods to perform a bias-free reversion require, necessarily, the assumption of Gaussianity of the transformed data distribution, which is a rare event in real-world time series. So, the aim of this study was to provide an effective method of removing the bias when the reversion of the Box-Cox transformation is executed. Thus, the developed method is based on a focused time lagged feedforward neural network, which does not require any assumption about the transformed data distribution. Therefore, to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, numerical simulations were conducted and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error, the Theil Inequality Index and the Signal-to-Noise ratio of 20-step-ahead forecasts of 40 time series were compared, and the results obtained indicate that the proposed reversion method is valid and justifies new studies. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Transformation of wealth produced into quality of life: analysis of the social efficiency of nation-states with the DEA's triple index approach

Although an essential condition for the occurrence of human development, economic growth is not always efficiently converted into quality of life by nation-states. Accordingly, the objective of this study is to measure the social efficiency-the ability of a nation-state to convert its produced wealth into quality of life-of a set of 101 countries. To achieve this goal, the Data Envelopment Analysis method was used in its standard, cross-multiplicative and inverted form, by means of a new approach called 'triple index'. The main results indicated that the former Soviet republics and Eastern European countries stood out in terms of social efficiency. The developed countries, notwithstanding their high social indicators, did not excel in efficiency; however, the countries of south of Africa, despite having the worst social conditions, were also the most inefficient.

Effect of surface and heat treatments on the biaxial flexural strength and phase transformation of a Y-TZP ceramic

To evaluate the effect of grinding and airborne-particle abrasion on the biaxial flexural strength (BFS) and phase transformation of a Y-TZP ceramic, and examine whether sintering the veneering porcelain renders the previous heat treatment recommended by the manufacturer unnecessary. Materials and Methods: Lava zirconia specimens (N = 108) were obtained with the following dimensions: 14.0 mm diameter × 1.3 mm thickness (n = 36) and 14.0 mm × 1.6 mm (n = 72). The thicker specimens were ground with diamond burs under irrigation and received (heat-treated groups) or not (non-heat-treated groups) a heat treatment (1000°C for 30 min) prior to the four firing cycles applied to simulate the sintering of the veneering porcelain. All specimens were air abraded as follows (n = 12): 1) 30-μm silica-modified Al2O3 particles (Rocatec Soft); 2) 110-μm silica-modified Al2O3 particles (Rocatec Plus); and 3) 120-μm Al2O3 particles, followed by Rocatec Plus. Three specimens of each group were analyzed by x-ray diffraction (XRD) to assess the monoclinic phase content (%). The BFS test was performed in a mechanical testing machine (Instron 8874). Data (MPa) were analyzed by two-way ANOVA (grinding × airborne-particle abrasion and heat treatment × airborne-particle abrasion) and Tukey's post-hoc test (α = 0.05). The strength reliability was analyzed using the Weibull distribution. Results: Grinding significantly decreased the BFS of the non-heat-treated groups (p < 0.01). Within the ground groups, the previous heat treatment did not influence the BFS (p > 0.05). Air abrasion only influenced the BFS of the ground/heat-treated groups (p < 0.01). For the non-heat-treated groups, the grinding did not decrease the Weibull modulus (m), but it did decrease the characteristic strength (σ0). For Rocatec Soft and 120-μm Al2O3 particles + Rocatec Plus, the heat-treated groups presented lower m and higher σ0 than the ground/non-heat-treated groups. The independent variables did not seem to influence phase transformation. Air-abraded surfaces presented higher monoclinic zirconia content than the as-sintered and ground surfaces, which exhibited similar content. Conclusion: Even under irrigation, grinding compromised the Y-TZP ceramic strength. The sintering of the veneering porcelain rendered the previous heat treatment recommended by the manufacturer unnecessary. Airborneparticle abrasion influenced the strength of heat-treated zirconia.

Effect of surface and heat treatments on the biaxial flexural strength and phase transformation of a y-tzp ceramic

To evaluate the effect of grinding and airborne-particle abrasion on the biaxial flexural strength (BFS) and phase transformation of a Y-TZP ceramic, and examine whether sintering the veneering porcelain renders the previous heat treatment recommended by the manufacturer unnecessary. Materials and Methods: Lava zirconia specimens (N = 108) were obtained with the following dimensions: 14.0 mm diameter × 1.3 mm thickness (n = 36) and 14.0 mm × 1.6 mm (n = 72). The thicker specimens were ground with diamond burs under irrigation and received (heat-treated groups) or not (non-heat-treated groups) a heat treatment (1000°C for 30 min) prior to the four firing cycles applied to simulate the sintering of the veneering porcelain. All specimens were air abraded as follows (n = 12): 1) 30-μm silica-modified Al2O3 particles (Rocatec Soft); 2) 110-μm silica-modified Al2O3 particles (Rocatec Plus); and 3) 120-μm Al2O3 particles, followed by Rocatec Plus. Three specimens of each group were analyzed by x-ray diffraction (XRD) to assess the monoclinic phase content (%). The BFS test was performed in a mechanical testing machine (Instron 8874). Data (MPa) were analyzed by two-way ANOVA (grinding × airborne-particle abrasion and heat treatment × airborne-particle abrasion) and Tukey's post-hoc test (α = 0.05). The strength reliability was analyzed using the Weibull distribution. Results: Grinding significantly decreased the BFS of the non-heat-treated groups (p < 0.01). Within the ground groups, the previous heat treatment did not influence the BFS (p > 0.05). Air abrasion only influenced the BFS of the ground/heat-treated groups (p < 0.01). For the non-heat-treated groups, the grinding did not decrease the Weibull modulus (m), but it did decrease the characteristic strength (σ0). For Rocatec Soft and 120-μm Al2O3 particles + Rocatec Plus, the heat-treated groups presented lower m and higher σ0 than the ground/non-heat-treated groups. The independent variables did not seem to influence phase transformation. Air-abraded surfaces presented higher monoclinic zirconia content than the as-sintered and ground surfaces, which exhibited similar content. Conclusion: Even under irrigation, grinding compromised the Y-TZP ceramic strength. The sintering of the veneering porcelain rendered the previous heat treatment recommended by the manufacturer unnecessary. Airborneparticle abrasion influenced the strength of heat-treated zirconia.

Effect of particle size on the flexural strength and phase transformation of an airborne-particle abraded yttria-stabilized tetragonal zirconia polycrystal ceramic.

Statement of problem Because airborne-particle abrasion is an efficient method of improving the bond at the zirconia-cement interface, understanding its effect on the strength of yttria-stabilized tetragonal zirconia polycrystal is important. Purpose The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of the particle size used for airborne-particle abrasion on the flexural strength and phase transformation of a commercially available yttria-stabilized tetragonal zirconia polycrystal ceramic. Material and Methods For both flexural strength (20.0 × 4.0 × 1.2 mm) (n=14) and phase transformation (14.0-mm diameter × 1.3-mm thickness) (n=4), the zirconia specimens were made from Lava, and their surfaces were treated in the following ways: as-sintered (control); with 50-μm aluminum oxide (Al2O3) particles; with 120-μm Al2O3 particles; with 250-μm Al2O3 particles; with 30-μm silica-modified Al2O3 particles (Cojet Sand); with 120-μm Al2O3 particles, followed by 110-μm silica-modified Al2O3 particles (Rocatec Plus); and with Rocatec Plus. The phase transformation (%) was assessed by x-ray diffraction analysis. The 3-point flexural strength test was conducted in artificial saliva at 37°C in a mechanical testing machine. The data were analyzed by 1-way ANOVA and the Tukey honestly significant difference post hoc test (α=.05). Results Except for the Cojet Sand group, which exhibited statistically similar flexural strength to that of the as-sintered group and for the group abraded with 250-μm Al2O3 particles, which presented the lowest strength, airborne-particle abrasion with the other particle sizes provided the highest values, with no significant difference among them. The as-sintered specimens presented no monoclinic phase. The groups abraded with smaller particles (30 μm and 50 μm) and those treated with the larger ones (110 μm and/or 120 μm particles and 250 μm) exhibited percentages of monoclinic phase that varied from 4% to 5% and from 8.7% to 10%. Conclusions Except for abrasion with Cojet Sand, depending on the particle size, zirconia exhibited an increase or a decrease in its flexural strength. Airborne-particle abrasion promoted phase transformation (tetragonal to monoclinic), and the percentage of monoclinic phase varied according to the particle size.

Backlund transformation for integrable hierarchies: example - mKdV hierarchy

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Type-II super-Backlund transformation and integrable defects for the N=1 super sinh-Gordon model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Photoluminescence of BaZrO3 explained by a order/disorded transformation

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Application of Micro-Raman Spectroscopy to the Study of Yttria-Stabilized Tetragonal Zirconia Polycrystal (Y-TZP) Phase Transformation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Analysis and Transformation of Pipe-like Web Mashups for End User Programmers

Mashups are becoming increasingly popular as end users are able to easily access, manipulate, and compose data from several web sources. To support end users, communities are forming around mashup development environments that facilitate sharing code and knowledge. We have observed, however, that end user mashups tend to suffer from several deficiencies, such as inoperable components or references to invalid data sources, and that those deficiencies are often propagated through the rampant reuse in these end user communities. In this work, we identify and specify ten code smells indicative of deficiencies we observed in a sample of 8,051 pipe-like web mashups developed by thousands of end users in the popular Yahoo! Pipes environment. We show through an empirical study that end users generally prefer pipes that lack those smells, and then present eleven specialized refactorings that we designed to target and remove the smells. Our refactorings reduce the complexity of pipes, increase their abstraction, update broken sources of data and dated components, and standardize pipes to fit the community development patterns. Our assessment on the sample of mashups shows that smells are present in 81% of the pipes, and that the proposed refactorings can reduce that number to 16%, illustrating the potential of refactoring to support thousands of end users developing pipe-like mashups.

The Shaping of a New Identity: Continuation of the Transformation Process of People of Color on White University College Campuses Into "White" People of Color

“Our study will show how the pyramidal structure as a permanent feature of every aspect of American society continues to function in the same manner at institutions of higher learning.”

Biogenic calcium phosphate transformation in soils over millennial time scales

Changes in bioavailability of phosphorus (P) during pedogenesis and ecosystem development have been shown for geogenic calcium phosphate (Ca-P). However, very little is known about long-term changes of biogenic Ca-P in soil. Long-term transformation characteristics of biogenic Ca-P were examined using anthropogenic soils along a chronosequence from centennial to millennial time scales. Phosphorus fractionation of Anthrosols resulted in overall consistency with the Walker and Syers model of geogenic Ca-P transformation during pedogenesis. The biogenic Ca-P (e.g., animal and fish bones) disappeared to 3% of total P within the first ca. 2,000 years of soil development. This change concurred with increases in P adsorbed on metal-oxides surfaces, organic P, and occluded P at different pedogenic time. Phosphorus K-edge X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy revealed that the crystalline and therefore thermodynamically most stable biogenic Ca-P was transformed into more soluble forms of Ca-P over time. While crystalline hydroxyapatite (34% of total P) dominated Ca-P species after about 600-1,000 years, beta-tricalcium phosphate increased to 16% of total P after 900-1,100 years, after which both Ca-P species disappeared. Iron-associated P was observable concurrently with Ca-P disappearance. Soluble P and organic P determined by XANES maintained relatively constant (58-65%) across the time scale studied. Disappearance of crystalline biogenic Ca-P on a time scale of a few thousand years appears to be ten times faster than that of geogenic Ca-P.

Genetic transformation of Diaporthe phaseolorum, an endophytic fungus found in mangrove forests, mediated by Agrobacterium tumefaciens

We describe the genetic transformation of the mycelial tissue of Diaporthe phaseolorum, an endophytic fungus isolated from the mangrove species Laguncularia racemosa, using Agrobacterium tumefaciens-mediated transformation (ATMT). ATMT uses both the hygromycin B resistant (hph) gene and green fluorescent protein as the selection agents. The T-DNA integration into the fungal genome was assessed by both PCR and Southern blotting. All transformants examined were mitotically stable. An analysis of the T-DNA flanking sequences by thermal asymmetric interlaced PCR (TAIL-PCR) demonstrated that the disrupted genes in the transformants had similarities with conserved domains in proteins involved in antibiotic biosynthesis pathways. A library of 520 transformants was generated, and 31 of these transformants had no antibiotic activity against Staphylococcus aureus, an important human pathogen. The protocol described here, using ATMT in D. phaseolorum, will be useful for the identification and analysis of fungal genes controlling pathogenicity and antibiotic pathways. Moreover, this protocol may be used as a reference for other species in the Diaporthe genus. This is the first report to describe Agrobacterium-mediated transformation of D. phaseolorum as a tool for insertional mutagenesis.

Genetic transformation of Citrus sinensis with Citrus tristeza virus (CTV) derived sequences and reaction of transgenic lines to CTV infection

Transgenic Citrus sinensis (L.) Osb. plants, cvs. Valencia and Hamlin, expressing Citrus tristeza virus (CTV) derived sequences were obtained by genetic transformation. The gene constructs were pCTV-CP containing the 25 kDa major capsid protein gene (CTV-CP), pCTV-dsCP containing the same CTV-CP gene in an intron-spliced hairpin construct, and pCTV-CS containing a 559 nt conserved region of the CTV genome. The transgenic lines were identified by PCR and the transgene integration was confirmed by Southern blot. Transgene mRNA could be detected in most transgenic lines containing pCTV-CP or pCTV-CS transgene. The mRNA of pCTV-dsCP transgene was almost undetectable, with very light bands in most analyzed plants. The transgene transcription appears to be closely linked to the type of gene construct. The virus challenge assays reveals that all transgenic lines were infected. However, it was possible to identify propagated clones of transgenic plants of both cultivars studied with a low virus titer, with values similar to the non-inoculated plants (negative control). These results suggested that the transgenic plants present some level of resistance to virus replication. The higher number of clones with low virus titer and where mRNA could not be detected or was presented in a very light band was found for pCTV-dsCP-derived transgenic lines.

Lymphocyte transformation assay for C neoformans antigen is not reliable for detecting cellular impairment in patients with Neurocryptococcosis

Background: Cryptococcus neoformans causes meningitis and disseminated infection in healthy individuals, but more commonly in hosts with defective immune responses. Cell-mediated immunity is an important component of the immune response to a great variety of infections, including yeast infections. We aimed to evaluate a specific lymphocyte transformation assay to Cryptococcus neoformans in order to identify immunodeficiency associated to neurocryptococcosis (NCC) as primary cause of the mycosis. Methods: Healthy volunteers, poultry growers, and HIV-seronegative patients with neurocryptococcosis were tested for cellular immune response. Cryptococcal meningitis was diagnosed by India ink staining of cerebrospinal fluid and cryptococcal antigen test (Immunomycol-Inc, SP, Brazil). Isolated peripheral blood mononuclear cells were stimulated with C. neoformans antigen, C. albicans antigen, and pokeweed mitogen. The amount of H-3-thymidine incorporated was assessed, and the results were expressed as stimulation index (SI) and log SI, sensitivity, specificity, and cut-off value (receiver operating characteristics curve). We applied unpaired Student t tests to compare data and considered significant differences for p<0.05. Results: The lymphotoxin alpha showed a low capacity with all the stimuli for classifying patients as responders and non-responders. Lymphotoxin alpha stimulated by heated-killed antigen from patients with neurocryptococcosis was not affected by TCD4+ cell count, and the intensity of response did not correlate with the clinical evolution of neurocryptococcosis. Conclusion: Response to lymphocyte transformation assay should be analyzed based on a normal range and using more than one stimulator. The use of a cut-off value to classify patients with neurocryptococcosis is inadequate. Statistical analysis should be based on the log transformation of SI. A more purified antigen for evaluating specific response to C. neoformans is needed.