Perceived risks in cross-border transactions in agri-food chains

Nowadays, agri-food chains are more global than ever and are characterized by increased imports and exports and global sourcing of products, resulting in increased cross-border transaction risks. The objective of this paper is to identify the typical risks regarding agri-food supply chains involved in cross-border transactions and to assess their importance as perceived by agri-food managers. The analysis takes into consideration four different agrifood value chains (meat, grain, olive oil, fresh vegetables and fruits). Following an explorative approach and a qualitative technique, a series of face to face in-depth interviews was conducted. Results indicate that risk perception may be quite different across countries, value chains, tiers of the supply chain, as well as across respondents. The prevalence of Market dynamics risks was pointed out in most of the interviews, yielding the impression that many operators identify the market as the most difficult environment. Differences in risk perception between fresh produce (fruit/vegetables and meat) and processed food chains (grain and olive oil) are probably interrelated to the different degree of integration within these supply chains, the different level of standardization achieved and the different causes of risks that are inherent to the nature of the product.

Innovation and policy networks:the social shaping of BSE-related technologies and the inadequate assessmant of related risks

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Outsourcing:assessing the risks and benefits for organisations, sectors and nations

Purpose - This research aims to assess the risks and benefits of outsourcing for organisations, sectors and nations. The literature on outsourcing contains little evidence of research on holistic issues of its impact at systems levels beyond the firm, notably sectors and nations. Design/methodology/approach - A Delphi study with senior strategists from private and public sectors captured perspectives and specific observations on benefits and risks of outsourcing. Emergent issues on outsourcing policy, strategy and decision-making processes were synthesised into a framework for analysing factors associated with outsourcing. Findings - The findings suggest that a more holistic view of outsourcing is needed, linking local, organisational issues with sector and national level actions and outcomes. In this way, aggregate risks and benefits can be assessed at different systems levels. Research limitations/implications - Future research might address the motivations for outsourcing; currently there is little research evidence to assess whether outsourcing is a mechanism for failing to solve internal problems, and moving responsibility and risk out of the firm. Additionally most outsourcing research to date has concentrated on an activity either being "in" or "out"; there is little research exploring the circumstances in which mixed models might be appropriate. Practical implications - The framework provides an aid to research and an aide memoire for managers considering outsourcing. Originality/value - This paper contributes to knowledge on understanding of outsourcing at different systems levels, particularly highlighting the implications of outsourcing for sectors and nations. Previously most research has focused at the level of the firm or dyadic relationship. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

An artificial neural network stratifies the risks of reintervention and mortality after endovascular aneurysm repair:a retrospective observational study

Background Lifelong surveillance after endovascular repair (EVAR) of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) is considered mandatory to detect potentially life-threatening endograft complications. A minority of patients require reintervention but cannot be predictively identified by existing methods. This study aimed to improve the prediction of endograft complications and mortality, through the application of machine-learning techniques. Methods Patients undergoing EVAR at 2 centres were studied from 2004-2010. Pre-operative aneurysm morphology was quantified and endograft complications were recorded up to 5 years following surgery. An artificial neural networks (ANN) approach was used to predict whether patients would be at low- or high-risk of endograft complications (aortic/limb) or mortality. Centre 1 data were used for training and centre 2 data for validation. ANN performance was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis to compare the incidence of aortic complications, limb complications, and mortality; in patients predicted to be low-risk, versus those predicted to be high-risk. Results 761 patients aged 75 +/- 7 years underwent EVAR. Mean follow-up was 36+/- 20 months. An ANN was created from morphological features including angulation/length/areas/diameters/ volume/tortuosity of the aneurysm neck/sac/iliac segments. ANN models predicted endograft complications and mortality with excellent discrimination between a low-risk and high-risk group. In external validation, the 5-year rates of freedom from aortic complications, limb complications and mortality were 95.9% vs 67.9%; 99.3% vs 92.0%; and 87.9% vs 79.3% respectively (p0.001) Conclusion This study presents ANN models that stratify the 5-year risk of endograft complications or mortality using routinely available pre-operative data.

Internet Social Networks – Benefits and Risks

Доклад, поместен в сборника на Националната конференция "Образованието в информационното общество", Пловдив, май, 2012 г.

Social media in emergency management:Twitter as a tool for communicating risks to the public

One of the main challenges of emergency management lies in communicating risks to the public. On some occasions, risk communicators might seek to increase awareness over emerging risks, while on others the aim might be to avoid escalation of public reactions. Social media accounts offer an opportunity to rapidly distribute critical information and in doing so to mitigate the impact of emergencies by influencing public reactions. This article draws on theories of risk and emergency communication in order to consider the impact of Twitter as a tool for communicating risks to the public. We analyse 10,020 Twitter messages posted by the official accounts of UK local government authorities (councils) in the context of two major emergencies: the heavy snow of December 2010 and the riots of August 2011. Twitter was used in a variety of ways to communicate and manage associated risks including messages to provide official updates, encourage protective behaviour, increase awareness and guide public attention to mitigating actions. We discuss the importance of social media as means of increasing confidence in emergency management institutions.

Discovering knowledge structures in mind maps of mental health risks

This thesis addressed the problem of risk analysis in mental healthcare, with respect to the GRiST project at Aston University. That project provides a risk-screening tool based on the knowledge of 46 experts, captured as mind maps that describe relationships between risks and patterns of behavioural cues. Mind mapping, though, fails to impose control over content, and is not considered to formally represent knowledge. In contrast, this thesis treated GRiSTs mind maps as a rich knowledge base in need of refinement; that process drew on existing techniques for designing databases and knowledge bases. Identifying well-defined mind map concepts, though, was hindered by spelling mistakes, and by ambiguity and lack of coverage in the tools used for researching words. A novel use of the Edit Distance overcame those problems, by assessing similarities between mind map texts, and between spelling mistakes and suggested corrections. That algorithm further identified stems, the shortest text string found in related word-forms. As opposed to existing approaches’ reliance on built-in linguistic knowledge, this thesis devised a novel, more flexible text-based technique. An additional tool, Correspondence Analysis, found patterns in word usage that allowed machines to determine likely intended meanings for ambiguous words. Correspondence Analysis further produced clusters of related concepts, which in turn drove the automatic generation of novel mind maps. Such maps underpinned adjuncts to the mind mapping software used by GRiST; one such new facility generated novel mind maps, to reflect the collected expert knowledge on any specified concept. Mind maps from GRiST are stored as XML, which suggested storing them in an XML database. In fact, the entire approach here is ”XML-centric”, in that all stages rely on XML as far as possible. A XML-based query language allows user to retrieve information from the mind map knowledge base. The approach, it was concluded, will prove valuable to mind mapping in general, and to detecting patterns in any type of digital information.

Válság és hitelderivatívák. A szintetikus fedezett adósságkötelezettségek (CDO-k) árazása és kockázataik (Crisis and loan derivatives. The pricing and risks of synthetic collateralized debt obligations)

A dolgozat első részében röviden áttekintjük a 2007-ben kezdődött pénzügyi válság lefolyását és a válsághoz vezető okokat. A bemutatás során igyekszünk végig a mögöttes folyamatokra és azok mozgatórugóira koncentrálni, ezzel megragadva a válság egyfajta "elméletét". A bemutatásból láthatóvá válik a hitelderivatívák kiemelt szerepe a válság során. A dolgozat második részében az egyik legnépszerűbb hitelderivatív termék, a szintetikus fedezett adósságkötelezettségek (CDO-k) matematikai modellezését és annak problémáit mutatjuk be. Sokak szerint ezek a matematikai modellek okozták - vagy legalábbis felerősítették - a válságot. Az elemzés során megmutatjuk, hogy nemcsak a modellezési eszközök nem voltak megfelelők, hanem az árazás elve sem állta meg a helyét a kockázatsemleges árazási keretben. Ez az eredmény élesen rámutat a mögöttes elméletek válságára. / === / The first part of the paper examines briefly the financial crisis of 2007 and its causes, focusing on its driving processes and key motifs. This shows clearly the importance and centrality of credit derivatives in the crisis. The second part presents a mathematical modelling of one of the most popular credit derivative products: synthetic collateralized debt obligations, along with the drawbacks and problems of the modelling process. It is widely claimed that these products caused or at least precipitated the crises. The authors show not only that the modelling tools were inappropriate, but that the principle for pricing did not match adequately the risk-neutral valuation framework.

Környezeti kockázatok felmérése. Paraméterek bizonytalanságának hatása a kockázatkezelési döntéshozatalra = Assessment of environmental risks – effects of parameter uncertainty to the risk management decisions

A környezeti kockázatok megfelelő felmérése és kezelése napjaink egyik legfontosabb kérdése, nemcsak a szakmai, hanem a széles értelemben vett közvélemény számára. A szerző cikkében azt vizsgálja, hogy a környezeti kockázatok felmérésének milyen megközelítései vannak. Kulcskérdésként pedig arra koncentrál, hogy a kockázatkezelési döntéseket hogyan befolyásolja a becslések bizonytalansága. Először a környezeti kockázat definícióját adja meg, majd azt mutatja be, hogy a környezeti kockázatok kezelésére vonatkozó megközelítések milyen párhuzamban állnak a pénzügyi rendszerrel, mint komplex rendszerre vonatkozó megközelítésekkel. Végül a jelenleg legnagyobb kockázatoknak tartott környezeti kockázatokat ismerteti röviden. A cikk második részében kockázatkezelési alternatívákat mutat be, és azt, hogy a kockázatkezelési lépések kiválasztását befolyásolja a bizonytalanság. Ezt illusztrálandó Brouwer-Blois (2008) modelljét használva a soklépéses szimulációt és alternatív döntési kritériumot – a kritikus (extrém) költség-hatás mutatót – alkalmazza. _____________ Adequate assessment and management of environmental risks is a key question nowadays also for professional experts and also for the overall public. In this article the author examines the different approaches concerning environmental risks. He concentrates as a key question the influence on risk management decisions of uncertainties raised by our estimations. First he analyses the definition of environmental risks, and he shows the similarities and differences between approaches concerning environmental risks and risks threatening financial system, and finally he gives short overview on the most current environmental risks. In the second part of the paper he presents risk management alternatives and analyses the influential power of uncertainty on risk management decisions. In order to illustrate this phenomenon the author applies the model of Brouwer-Blois (2008) with multistep simulation and an alternative decisive criterion, the ranking based on critical (extreme) cost to effect measure.

Kockázatok a mezőgazdaságban (Risks in agriculture)

A szerző cikkében a mezőgazdaságban megjelenő kockázatokkal foglalkozik. Vizsgálja, hogy mely tényezők okoznak kockázatot e területen, illetve érinti a kockázat legsúlyosabb következményét, az éhínséget, csökkentésének módjait, valamint a mezőgazdasági biztosítás kérdését. ________ The paper analyzes the different types of risks appearing in agriculture. The paper aims to analyze both the factors that cause the risks and the most serious consequence of these risks, namely famine. The essay also tries to evaluate to possible ways risk can be decreased, especially with the focus on agricultural insurance.

Speciális kockázatok és kockázatkezelés a kockázatitőke-finanszírozásban (The special risks and risk management of venture capital)

A tanulmányban a szerzők arra a kérdésre keresik a választ, hogy az aszimmetrikus információk hatására a vállalkozók és a befektetők között kialakuló megbízó-ügynök viszonynak melyek a speciális vetületei a kockázatitőke-finanszírozás vonatkozásában. A szerzők arra a következtetésre jutottak, hogy a hiányos információk, a megbízó-ügynök viszony, illetve az ügyletek speciális jellege miatt fokozottan jelentkező ügynökprobléma kezelésére a kockázatitőke-finanszírozás szereplői speciális kockázatkezelési technikákat alkalmaznak. Ilyenek a magas elvárt hozamok, a szigorú kiválasztási kritériumok, a speciális befektetési vagy szindikátusi szerződések, a befektetést követő monitoring tevékenység, a több lépcsőben történő finanszírozás és a portfólióvállalatok hálózatba szervezése. A speciális kockázati megközelítés következtében a befektetéseket opciós szemlélet is áthatja. _____ This paper focuses on the special aspects of imperfect information in case of venture capital financing including principal-agent relationship between entrepreneurs and investors as well as adverse selection that evolves as a result of information asymmetries. The authors’ finding is that venture capital is able to manage the problems caused by imperfect information via applying divers risk management techniques such as high profit expectations, scrutiny of portfolio-companies, the use of special contracting stipulations and syndicate agreements, the monitoring of investments, multi-staged financing of companies and the integration of portfolio-companies into networks. In addition to the risk management techniques the authors also give the interpretation of the unique attitude of venture capital toward uncertainty and its special real option-like risk valuation approach that makes venture capitalists capable of handling high uncertainty under imperfect information.

A disztribúció kiszervezéséhez kapcsolódó ellátási és működési kockázatok (Supply and operational risks in the outsourcing of distribution management)

A cikk célja, hogy elemző bemutatását adja az ellátási láncok működéséhez, különösen a disztribúciós tevékenység kiszervezéséhez kapcsolódó működési kockázatoknak. Az írás első része az irodalomkutatás eredményeit feldolgozva az ellátási láncok kockázati kitettségének növekedése mögött rejlő okokat törekszik feltárni, s röviden bemutatja a vállalati kockázatkezelés lehetséges lépéseit e téren. A cikk második gondolati egysége mélyinterjúk segítségével összefoglalja és rendszerezi a disztribúció kiszervezéséhez kapcsolódó kockázatokat, számba veszi a kapcsolódó kockázatkezelési lehetőségeket, s bemutatja a megkérdezett vállalatok által alkalmazott kockázat-megelőzési alternatívákat. ______ The aim of this paper is to introduce operational risks of supply chains, especially risks deriving from the outsourcing of distribution management. Based on literature review the first part of the paper talks about the potential reasons of increasing global supply chain risks, and the general business activities of risk assessment. Analyzing the results of semi-structured qualitative interviews, the second part summarizes the risks belonging to the outsourcing of distribution and introduces the potential risk assessment and avoidance opportunities and alternatives in practice.

Trading between perceived risks and benefits related to biosimilar biological treatment in Crohn’s disease; discrete choice experiment among gastroenterologists

Objective: The objective of the study is to explore preferences of gastroenterologists for biosimilar drugs in Crohn’s Disease and reveal trade-offs between the perceived risks and benefits related to biosimilar drugs. Method: Discrete choice experiment was carried out involving 51 Hungarian gastroenterologists in May, 2014. The following attributes were used to describe hypothetical choice sets: 1) type of the treatment (biosimilar/originator) 2) severity of disease 3) availability of continuous medicine supply 4) frequency of the efficacy check-ups. Multinomial logit model was used to differentiate between three attitude types: 1) always opting for the originator 2) willing to consider biosimilar for biological-naïve patients only 3) willing to consider biosimilar treatment for both types of patients. Conditional logit model was used to estimate the probabilities of choosing a given profile. Results: Men, senior consultants, working in IBD center and treating more patients are more likely to willing to consider biosimilar for biological-naïve patients only. Treatment type (originator/biosimilar) was the most important determinant of choice for patients already treated with biologicals, and the availability of continuous medicine supply in the case biological-naïve patients. The probabilities of choosing the biosimilar with all the benefits offered over the originator under current reimbursement conditions are 89% vs 11% for new patients, and 44% vs 56% for patients already treated with biological. Conclusions: Gastroenterologists were willing to trade between perceived risks and benefits of biosimilars. The continuous medical supply would be one of the major benefits of biosimilars. However, benefits offered in the scenarios do not compensate for the change from the originator to the biosimilar treatment of patients already treated with biologicals.

The corruption risks of EU funds in Hungary

In corruption, a group of players gain an economic advantage without providing any socially beneficial services in return, therefore corruption is considered to be a form of rent-seeking. Similar to other forms of rent-seeking, corruption causes losses on a societal level, due to the less efficient allocation of resources, as well as the costs of operation and prosecution. Fighting corruption is important not just because of ethical but also economic considerations. Contributions from the European Union are making possible the use of more funds than ever, and spending the full amount of this money is a priority preference of the government. The abundance of funds and the pressure on absorption increase corruption, by the managers of the funds overplanning the amount of money to be allocated to individual tender invitations, setting generous rules on eligible costs, and specifying low rates of own contribution wherever possible. As a result, the opportunities for rent-seeking are increased, as it is worth it for beneficiaries to carry out the project even after relinquishing part of the funds they have been awarded. Thus, the abundance of funds generates a sphere of corruption in which rent-seekers may appear on various levels of the system, often even without the knowledge or approval of those on higher decisionmaking levels.