968 resultados para mortality probability prediction
Resumo:
The authors examined the associations of social support with socioeconomic status (SES) and with mortality, as well as how SES differences in social support might account for SES differences in mortality. Analyses were based on 9,333 participants from the British Whitehall II Study cohort, a longitudinal cohort established in 1985 among London-based civil servants who were 35-55 years of age at baseline. SES was assessed using participant's employment grades at baseline. Social support was assessed 3 times in the 24.4-year period during which participants were monitored for death. In men, marital status, and to a lesser extent network score (but not low perceived support or high negative aspects of close relationships), predicted both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Measures of social support were not associated with cancer mortality. Men in the lowest SES category had an increased risk of death compared with those in the highest category (for all-cause mortality, hazard ratio = 1.59, 95% confidence interval: 1.21, 2.08; for cardiovascular mortality, hazard ratio = 2.48, 95% confidence interval: 1.55, 3.92). Network score and marital status combined explained 27% (95% confidence interval: 14, 43) and 29% (95% confidence interval: 17, 52) of the associations between SES and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively. In women, there was no consistent association between social support indicators and mortality. The present study suggests that in men, social isolation is not only an important risk factor for mortality but is also likely to contribute to differences in mortality by SES.
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We explored the role of urokinase and tissue-type plasminogen activators (uPA and tPA), as well as the uPA receptor (uPAR; CD87) in mouse severe malaria (SM), using genetically deficient (-/-) mice. The mortality resulting from Plasmodium berghei ANKA infection was delayed in uPA(-/-) and uPAR(-/-) mice but was similar to that of the wild type (+/+) in tPA(-/-) mice. Parasitemia levels were similar in uPA(-/-), uPAR(-/-), and +/+ mice. Production of tumor necrosis factor, as judged from the plasma level and the mRNA levels in brain and lung, was markedly increased by infection in both +/+ and uPAR(-/-) mice. Breakdown of the blood-brain barrier, as evidenced by the leakage of Evans Blue, was similar in +/+ and uPAR(-/-) mice. SM was associated with a profound thrombocytopenia, which was attenuated in uPA(-/-) and uPAR(-/-) mice. Administration of aprotinin, a plasmin antagonist, also delayed mortality and attenuated thrombocytopenia. Platelet trapping in cerebral venules or alveolar capillaries was evident in +/+ mice but absent in uPAR(-/-) mice. In contrast, macrophage sequestration in cerebral venules or alveolar capillaries was evident in both +/+ and uPAR(-/-) mice. Polymorphonuclear leukocyte sequestration in alveolar capillaries was similar in +/+ and uPAR(-/-) mice. These results demonstrate that the uPAR deficiency attenuates the severity of SM, probably by its important role in platelet kinetics and trapping. These results therefore suggest that platelet sequestration contributes to the pathogenesis of SM.
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Number of deaths and age-standardised death rates by type of injury for the following regions and year of occurrence:Republic of Ireland 1982, 1983, 1995-2004Northern Ireland 1982, 1983, 1995-2002England 1996-2003Scotland 1982, 1983, 1995-2004Wales 1996-2003
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BACKGROUND: The influence of recent immobilization or surgery on mortality in cancer patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) has not been thoroughly studied. METHODS: We used the RIETE Registry data to compare the 3-month mortality rate in cancer patients with VTE, with patients categorized according to the presence of recent immobilization, surgery or neither. The major outcomes were fatal pulmonary embolism (PE) and fatal bleeding within the first 3 months. RESULTS: Of 6,746 patients with active cancer and acute VTE, 1,224 (18%) had recent immobilization, 1,055 (16%) recent surgery, and 4,467 (66%) had neither. The all-cause mortality was 23.4% (95% CI: 22.4-24.5), and the PE-related mortality: 2.5% (95% CI: 2.1-2.9). Four in every ten patients dying of PE had recent immobilization (37%) or surgery (5.4%). Only 28% of patients with immobilization had received prophylaxis, as compared with 67% of the surgical. Fatal PE was more common in patients with recent immobilization (5.0%; 95% CI: 3.9-6.3) than in those with surgery (0.8%; 95% CI: 0.4-1.6) or neither (2.2%; 95% CI: 1.8-2.6). On multivariate analysis, patients with immobilization were at an increased risk for fatal PE (odds ratio: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.2-2.5). CONCLUSIONS: One in every three cancer patients dying of PE had recent immobilization for ≥ 4 days. Many of these deaths could have been prevented with adequate thromboprophylaxis.
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The impact of three treatment strategies for Trypanosoma evansi control on horse mortality in the Brazilian Pantanal based on four size categories of cattle ranches is explored. The region's 49,000 horses are indispensable to traditional extensive cattle ranching and T. evansi kills horses. About 13% of these horses would be lost, annually, due to T. evansi if no control were undertaken. One preventive and two curative treatment strategies are financially justifiable in the Pantanal. The best available technology for the treatment of T. evansi from a horse mortality perspective is the preventive strategy, which spares 6,462 horses, annually. The year-round cure spares 5,783 horses, and the seasonal cure saves 5,204 horses on a regional basis relative to no control strategy. Regardless of the strategy adopted, 39% of the costs or benefits fall to the largest ranches, while 18% fall to the smallest ranches.
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In an uncertain environment, probabilities are key to predicting future events and making adaptive choices. However, little is known about how humans learn such probabilities and where and how they are encoded in the brain, especially when they concern more than two outcomes. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), young adults learned the probabilities of uncertain stimuli through repetitive sampling. Stimuli represented payoffs and participants had to predict their occurrence to maximize their earnings. Choices indicated loss and risk aversion but unbiased estimation of probabilities. BOLD response in medial prefrontal cortex and angular gyri increased linearly with the probability of the currently observed stimulus, untainted by its value. Connectivity analyses during rest and task revealed that these regions belonged to the default mode network. The activation of past outcomes in memory is evoked as a possible mechanism to explain the engagement of the default mode network in probability learning. A BOLD response relating to value was detected only at decision time, mainly in striatum. It is concluded that activity in inferior parietal and medial prefrontal cortex reflects the amount of evidence accumulated in favor of competing and uncertain outcomes.
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The Millennium Declaration (2000) set as one of its targets a substantial reduction in child mortality. This paper studies whether the massive increase in development aid can account for part of the reduction in child mortality observed in developing countries since the year 2000. To do so, we analyze a panel of more than 130 developing countries over the 2000-2008 period. We use the time trend evolution of aid to identify an exogenous source of variation. Total aid has had no statistically significant effect on child mortality. However, a disaggregate analysis identifies certain sectors of aid that have had a significant impact. The effects have been larger in high mortality countries, including Sub-Saharan Africa. Projections based on our estimates strongly support the concern that most countries in that region will miss the Millennium Goals target on child mortality.
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Scanty information, limited to selected areas of the country, is available on cancer mortality in Brazil. Age-standardized (world population) mortality rates between 1980 and 2004, derived from the WHO database, were computed for all cancers and 24 major cancer sites in Brazil. Joinpoint regression analyses were used to identify the significant changes in trends and estimate annual percent change (APC) in rates. Total cancer mortality rates increased over the last decade in men (APC = 0.5) to reach 101.2/100 000, and in women (APC = 0.3) to reach 71.3/100 000. In men, upward trends were observed for cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx with a rate of 5.9/100 000 in 2000-2004, intestines (whose rate, however was low, i.e. 7.6), prostate (12.2), and leukemias (3.4). Male lung cancer increased until 1993 (APC = 1.39) and decreased thereafter (APC = -0.29), with a relatively low rate of 16.2/100 000 in 2000-2004. In women, there were steady upward trends for cancers of the lung (APC = 2.3), reaching 6.2/100 000 in 2000-2004, and leukemias (2.5). Breast cancer mortality leveled off at around 10/100 000 in the last decade, whereas declines were observed for cancers of the uterus, whose rate (8.3) however, remained comparatively high. Declines were observed for stomach cancer in both sexes, with rates of 11.1 in men and 4.6 in women. In conclusion, the key issues of cancer mortality in Brazil are the high rates of head and neck cancers in men and (cervix) uterine cancer in women, that is, in principle cancers that are largely avoidable through prevention, screening, and early diagnosis.
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Life tables were constructed for six cohorts of immature stages of the floodwater mosquito Ochlerotatus albifasciatus (Macquart) in a park in Buenos Aires, highlighting the mortality attributable to the parasitic nematode, Strelkovimermis spiculatus Poinar & Camino. Two cohorts were selected to compare parasite incidence in all mosquito stages when low and high parasitism occurred. Development time of Oc. albifasciatus from first instar to adult was 7.7-10 days in the spring, 6 days in the summer, and 10.9-21.9 days in the fall. Survival was estimated as 0-1.4% in the spring, 2% in the summer and 0.2-4.4% in the fall. The highest "K" value (Killing power) occurred during a fall cohort when prevalence of the parasite was 86.9%, and the lowest in a spring cohort. Parasitism occurred during all seasons, but S. spiculatus persisted to adult only in the summer and fall, when adult mosquitoes developed from parasitized third and fourth instars larvae. The abundance of S. spiculatus differed between old and young larvae only when parasite prevalence was the highest. Although pupae and adults of Oc. albifasciatus were parasitized, no pupal mortality attributable to parasitism was recorded. The proportion of parasitized adults ranged from 14.2% and 5.7% in the two cohorts compared. Pupal wet weight and adult wing lengths did not differ between parasitized and unparasitized individuals.
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Obese persons (those with a body mass index [BMI] ≥30 kg/m2) tend to underestimate their weight, leading to an underestimation of their true (measured) BMI and obesity prevalence.1,2 In contrast, underweight people (BMI <18.5 kg/m2) tend to report themselves heavier, resulting in a higher BMI compared with measured BMI and an underestimation of underweight prevalence.
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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest pain raises concern for the possibility of coronary heart disease. Scoring methods have been developed to identify coronary heart disease in emergency settings, but not in primary care. METHODS: Data were collected from a multicenter Swiss clinical cohort study including 672 consecutive patients with chest pain, who had visited one of 59 family practitioners' offices. Using delayed diagnosis we derived a prediction rule to rule out coronary heart disease by means of a logistic regression model. Known cardiovascular risk factors, pain characteristics, and physical signs associated with coronary heart disease were explored to develop a clinical score. Patients diagnosed with angina or acute myocardial infarction within the year following their initial visit comprised the coronary heart disease group. RESULTS: The coronary heart disease score was derived from eight variables: age, gender, duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes, substernal chest pain location, pain increases with exertion, absence of tenderness point at palpation, cardiovascular risks factors, and personal history of cardiovascular disease. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was of 0.95 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.92; 0.97. From this score, 413 patients were considered as low risk for values of percentile 5 of the coronary heart disease patients. Internal validity was confirmed by bootstrapping. External validation using data from a German cohort (Marburg, n = 774) revealed a receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72; 0.81) with a sensitivity of 85.6% and a specificity of 47.2%. CONCLUSIONS: This score, based only on history and physical examination, is a complementary tool for ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients complaining of chest pain.
Resumo:
A regression analysis using a linked file of all Swiss births und perinatal deaths 1979-1981 showed a significant relation between birthweight and canton. Sex of infant and multiplicity of birth were significant, too. For live births, marital and socio-economic status of mother and father relate to birthweight. Logistic regressions brought out relationships between the risk of stillbirth and occupation of father, nationality and marital status of mother, apart from birthweight. For live births, only sex and (weakly) marital status and rank of the child were influencial after correction for birthweight.