916 resultados para modeling and prediction
Resumo:
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
Resumo:
O Município de Marabá- PA, situado na região Amazônica, sudeste do Estado do Pará, sofre anualmente com eventos de enchentes, ocasionados pelo aumento periódico do rio Tocantins e pela situação de vulnerabilidade da população que reside em áreas de risco. A defesa civil estadual e municipal anualmente planeja e prepara equipes para ações de defesa no município. Nesta fase o monitoramento e previsão de eventos de enchentes são importantes. Portanto, com o objetivo de diminuir erros nas previsões hidrológicas para o Município de Marabá, desenvolveu-se um modelo estocástico para previsão de nível do rio Tocantins, baseado na metodologia de Box e Jenkins. Utilizou os dados de níveis diários observados nas estações hidrológicas de Marabá e Carolina e Conceição do Araguaia da Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA), do período de 01/12/ 2008 a 31/03/2011. Efetuou-se o ajustamento de três modelos (Mt, Nt e Yt), através de diferentes aplicativos estatísticos: o SAS e o Gretl, usando diferentes interpretações do comportamento das séries para gerar as equações dos modelos. A principal diferença entre os aplicativos é que no SAS usa o modelo de função de transferência na modelagem. Realizou-se uma classificação da variabilidade do nível do rio, através da técnica dos Quantis para o período de 1972 a 2011, examinando-se apenas as categorizações de níveis ACIMA e MUITO ACIMA do normal. Para análise de impactos socioeconômicos foram usados os dados das ações da Defesa Civil Estado do Pará nas cheias de 2009 e 2011. Os resultados mostraram que o número de eventos de cheias com níveis MUITO ACIMA do normal, geralmente, podem estar associados a eventos de La Niña. Outro resultado importante: os modelos gerados simularam muito bem o nível do rio para o período de sete dias (01/04/2011 a 07/04/2011). O modelo multivariado Nt (com pequenos erros) representou o comportamento da série original, subestimando os valores reais nos dias 3, 4 e 5 de abril de 2011, com erro máximo de 0,28 no dia 4. O modelo univariado (Yt) teve bons resultados nas simulações com erros absolutos em torno de 0,12 m. O modelo com menor erro absoluto (0,08m) para o mesmo período foi o modelo Mt, desenvolvido pelo aplicativo SAS, que interpreta a série original como sendo não linear e não estacionária. A análise quantitativa dos impactos fluviométricos, ocorridos nas enchentes de 2009 e 2011 na cidade de Marabá, revelou em média que mais de 4 mil famílias sofrem com estes eventos, implicado em gastos financeiros elevados. Logo, conclui-se que os modelos de previsão de níveis são importantes ferramentas que a Defesa Civil, utiliza no planejamento e preparo de ações preventivas para o município de Marabá.
Resumo:
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
Resumo:
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
Resumo:
Pós-graduação em Biofísica Molecular - IBILCE
Association of titanium mesh and bovine pericardium membrane in the treatment of severe enophthalmos
Resumo:
The blowout fractures may be classified as pure or impure depending on the associated structures. There are 2 main theories attempting to describe the mechanism of injury, the hydraulic, and blocking mechanism. The complications of this type of fracture may involve diplopia, enophthalmos, and ocular movement restriction. Several materials are available for the reconstruction of orbital floor, including the titanium mesh, which present great properties, such as easy modeling and stabilization, small thickness, and shape maintenance. There, however, are disadvantages such as the possibility of adherence formation. The aim of this report is to describe the case of a patient with an 8-month blowout fracture sequel, presenting extensive enophthalmos and treated by affixing a titanium mesh associated with bovine pericardium membrane in the orbital floor. Therefore, based on a 2-year follow-up, it was possible to observe how effective the association between these 2 materials in solving the case was.
Resumo:
In this action research study of my classroom of fifth grade mathematics, I investigate the relationship between student understanding of precise mathematics vocabulary and student achievement in mathematics. Specifically, I focused on students’ understanding of written mathematics problems and on their ability to use precise mathematical language in their written solutions of critical thinking problems. I discovered that students are resistant to change; they prefer to do what comes naturally to them. Since they have not been previously taught to use precise mathematical language in their communication about math, they have great difficulty in adapting to this new requirement. However, with teaching modeling and ample opportunities to use the language of mathematics, students’ understanding and use of specific mathematical vocabulary is increased.
Resumo:
1. Distance sampling is a widely used technique for estimating the size or density of biological populations. Many distance sampling designs and most analyses use the software Distance. 2. We briefly review distance sampling and its assumptions, outline the history, structure and capabilities of Distance, and provide hints on its use. 3. Good survey design is a crucial prerequisite for obtaining reliable results. Distance has a survey design engine, with a built-in geographic information system, that allows properties of different proposed designs to be examined via simulation, and survey plans to be generated. 4. A first step in analysis of distance sampling data is modeling the probability of detection. Distance contains three increasingly sophisticated analysis engines for this: conventional distance sampling, which models detection probability as a function of distance from the transect and assumes all objects at zero distance are detected; multiple-covariate distance sampling, which allows covariates in addition to distance; and mark–recapture distance sampling, which relaxes the assumption of certain detection at zero distance. 5. All three engines allow estimation of density or abundance, stratified if required, with associated measures of precision calculated either analytically or via the bootstrap. 6. Advanced analysis topics covered include the use of multipliers to allow analysis of indirect surveys (such as dung or nest surveys), the density surface modeling analysis engine for spatial and habitat-modeling, and information about accessing the analysis engines directly from other software. 7. Synthesis and applications. Distance sampling is a key method for producing abundance and density estimates in challenging field conditions. The theory underlying the methods continues to expand to cope with realistic estimation situations. In step with theoretical developments, state-of- the-art software that implements these methods is described that makes the methods accessible to practicing ecologists.
Resumo:
Silicon carbide (SiC) is considered a suitable candidate for high-power, high-frequency devices due to its wide bandgap, high breakdown field, and high electron mobility. It also has the unique ability to synthesize graphene on its surface by subliming Si during an annealing stage. The deposition of SiC is most often carried out using chemical vapor deposition (CVD) techniques, but little research has been explored with respect to the sputtering of SiC. Investigations of the thin film depositions of SiC from pulse sputtering a hollow cathode SiC target are presented. Although there are many different polytypes of SiC, techniques are discussed that were used to identify the film polytype on both 4H-SiC substrates and Si substrates. Results are presented about the ability to incorporate Ge into the growing SiC films for the purpose of creating a possible heterojunction device with pure SiC. Efforts to synthesize graphene on these films are introduced and reasons for the inability to create it are discussed. Analysis mainly includes crystallographic and morphological studies about the deposited films and their quality using x-ray diffraction (XRD), reflection high energy electron diffraction (RHEED), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), atomic force microscopy (AFM), Auger electron spectroscopy (AES) and Raman spectroscopy. Optical and electrical properties are also discussed via ellipsometric modeling and resistivity measurements. The general interpretation of these analytical experiments indicates that the films are not single crystal. However, the majority of the films, which proved to be the 3C-SiC polytype, were grown in a highly ordered and highly textured manner on both (111) and (110) Si substrates.
Resumo:
The Camamu Bay (CMB) is located on the narrowest shelf along the South American coastline and close to the formation of two major Western Boundary Currents (WBC), the Brazil/North Brazil Current (BC/NBC). These WBC flow close to the shelf break/slope region and are expected to interact with the shelf currents due to the narrowness of the shelf. The shelf circulation is investigated in terms of current variability based on an original data set covering the 2002-2003 austral summer and the 2003 austral autumn. The Results show that the currents at the shelf are mainly wind driven, experiencing a complete reversal between seasons due to a similar change in the wind field. Currents at the inner-shelf have a polarized nature, with the alongshore velocity mostly driven by forcings at the sub-inertial frequency band and the cross-shore velocity mainly supra-inertially forced, with the tidal currents playing an important role at this direction. The contribution of the forcing mechanisms at the mid-shelf changes between seasons. During the summer, forcings in the two frequency bands are important to drive the currents with a similar contribution of the tidal currents. On the other hand, during the autumn season, the alongshore velocity is mostly driven by sub-inertial forcings and tidally driven currents still remain important in both directions. Moreover, during the autumn when the stratification is weaker, the response of the shelf currents to the wind forcing presents a barotropic signature. The meso-scale processes related to the WBC flowing at the shelf/slope region also affect the circulation within the shelf, which contribute to cause significant current reversals during the autumn season. Currents at the shelf-estuary connection are clearly supra-inertially forced with the tidal currents playing a key role in the generation of the along-channel velocities. The sub-inertial forcings at this location act mainly to drive the weak ebb currents which were highly correlated with both local and remote wind forcing during the summer season. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
In this work, an experimental and numerical analysis and characterization of functionally graded structures (FGSs) is developed. Nickel (Ni) and copper (Cu) materials are used as basic materials in the numerical modeling and experimental characterization. For modeling, a MATLAB finite element code is developed, which allows simulation of harmonic and modal analysis considering the graded finite element formulation. For experimental characterization, Ni-Cu FGSs are manufactured by using spark plasma sintering technique. Hardness and Young's modulus are found by using microindentation and ultrasonic measurements, respectively. The effective gradation of Ni/Cu FGS is addressed by means of optical microscopy, energy dispersive spectrometry, scanning electron microscopy and hardness testing. For the purpose of comparing modeling and experimental results, the hardness curve, along the gradation direction, is used for identifying the gradation profile; accordingly, the experimental hardness curve is used for approximating the Young's modulus variation and the graded finite element modeling is used for verification. For the first two resonance frequency values, a difference smaller than 1% between simulated and experimental results is obtained. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
PPAR delta is a nuclear receptor that, when activated, regulates the metabolism of carbohydrates and lipids and is related to metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes. To understand the main interactions between ligands and PPAR delta, we have constructed 2D and 3D QSAR models and compared them with HOMO, LUMO and electrostatic potential maps of the compounds studied, as well as docking results. All QSAR models showed good statistical parameters and prediction outcomes. The QSAR models were used to predict the biological activity of an external test set, and the predicted values are in good agreement with the experimental results. Furthermore, we employed all maps to evaluate the possible interactions between the ligands and PPAR delta. These predictive QSAR models, along with the HOMO, LUMO and MEP maps, can provide insights into the structural and chemical properties that are needed in the design of new PPAR delta ligands that have improved biological activity and can be employed to treat metabolic diseases.
Resumo:
This article presents an overview of relevant issues to be considered in the development of standardized phytochemical preparations, focusing on the use of the spouted bed as a drying method. Aspects related to the effects of feed composition properties and processing parameters on system performance and product quality are addressed. From the information presented, it can be concluded that the spouted bed technology can be successfully applied for production of high-quality phytochemical preparations suitable for food and pharmaceutical purposes, considering the requirements for product safety, quality, and efficacy. Nevertheless, it should be emphasized that, at this time, the proposed technology is appropriate for small-scale production, mainly due to difficulties concerning scale-up, modeling, and the simulation of spouted bed systems, and also for predicting product properties and system behavior during operation.
Resumo:
In this paper, we carry out robust modeling and influence diagnostics in Birnbaum-Saunders (BS) regression models. Specifically, we present some aspects related to BS and log-BS distributions and their generalizations from the Student-t distribution, and develop BS-t regression models, including maximum likelihood estimation based on the EM algorithm and diagnostic tools. In addition, we apply the obtained results to real data from insurance, which shows the uses of the proposed model. Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Characterization of PAR1 and FGFR1 expression in invasive breast carcinomas: Prognostic significance
Resumo:
Breast cancer is the most common cause of cancer mortality among women worldwide. Among the several factors associated with breast cancer development, angiogenesis plays an essential role and has currently emerged as a potential diagnostic, prognostic and therapeutic target. Protease-activated receptor 1 (PAR1) and fibroblast growth factor receptor 1 (FGFR1) have important activities in tumor angiogenesis and progression. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic significance of these two receptors, hypothesising significant correlations between receptor expression in tumor angiogenesis and clinicopathological parameters customarily used in breast cancer prognosis and prediction. Formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded samples of ductal invasive breast carcinomas were used to analyze the expression of PAR1 and FGFR1, in the tumor cells as well as in the tumor stroma, and further determine intratumoral microvessel density (iMVD) to quantify intratumoral angiogenesis. Correlations between PAR1 and FGFR1 expression in tumor cells and stroma, iMVD and several clinicopathological parameters and molecular markers used in breast cancer diagnosis have been addressed. The correlation between PAR1 and FGFR1 suggests an association of the two receptors with a more aggressive breast cancer phenotype and, consequently, a potential role during tumor progression. The results reported in the present study also emphasize the importance of microenvironmental factors in tumor progression, while precluding the positive association between iMVD and breast cancer aggressiveness.