Reliability analysis for hazard and operability studies

Fault tree analysis is used as a tool within hazard and operability (Hazop) studies. The present study proposes a new methodology for obtaining the exact TOP event probability of coherent fault trees. The technique uses a top-down approach similar to that of FATRAM. This new Fault Tree Disjoint Reduction Algorithm resolves all the intermediate events in the tree except OR gates with basic event inputs so that a near minimal cut sets expression is obtained. Then Bennetts' disjoint technique is applied and remaining OR gates are resolved. The technique has been found to be appropriate as an alternative to Monte Carlo simulation methods when rare events are countered and exact results are needed. The algorithm has been developed in FORTRAN 77 on the Perq workstation as an addition to the Aston Hazop package. The Perq graphical environment enabled a friendly user interface to be created. The total package takes as its input cause and symptom equations using Lihou's form of coding and produces both drawings of fault trees and the Boolean sum of products expression into which reliability data can be substituted directly.

Factors affecting human reliability in the chemical process industry

This research was concerned with identifying factors which may influence human reliability within chemical process plants - these factors are referred to as Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs). Following a period of familiarization within the industry, a number of case studies were undertaken covering a range of basic influencing factors. Plant records and site `lost time incident reports' were also used as supporting evidence for identifying and classifying PSFs. In parallel to the investigative research, the available literature appertaining to human reliability assessment and PSFs was considered in relation to the chemical process plan environment. As a direct result of this work, a PSF classification structure has been produced with an accompanying detailed listing. Phase two of the research considered the identification of important individual PSFs for specific situations. Based on the experience and data gained during phase one, it emerged that certain generic features of a task influenced PSF relevance. This led to the establishment of a finite set of generic task groups and response types. Similarly, certain PSFs influence some human errors more than others. The result was a set of error type key words, plus the identification and classification of error causes with their underlying error mechanisms. By linking all these aspects together, a comprehensive methodology has been forwarded as the basis of a computerized aid for system designers. To recapitulate, the major results of this research have been: One, the development of a comprehensive PSF listing specifically for the chemical process industries with a classification structure that facilitates future updates; and two, a model of identifying relevant SPFs and their order of priority. Future requirements are the evaluation of the PSF listing and the identification method. The latter must be considered both in terms of `useability' and its success as a design enhancer, in terms of an observable reduction in important human errors.

Reliability monitoring, feedback and improvement systems:their application in the machine tool industry

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Sensitivity and reliability of objective image analysis compared to subjective grading of bulbar hyperaemia

Aims: To establish the sensitivity and reliability of objective image analysis in direct comparison with subjective grading of bulbar hyperaemia. Methods: Images of the same eyes were captured with a range of bulbar hyperaemia caused by vasodilation. The progression was recorded and 45 images extracted. The images were objectively analysed on 14 occasions using previously validated edge-detection and colour-extraction techniques. They were also graded by 14 eye-care practitioners (ECPs) and 14 non-clinicians (NCb) using the Efron scale. Six ECPs repeated the grading on three separate occasions Results: Subjective grading was only able to differentiate images with differences in grade of 0.70-1.03 Efron units (sensitivity of 0.30-0.53), compared to 0,02-0.09 Efron units with objective techniques (sensitivity of 0.94-0.99). Significant differences were found between ECPs and individual repeats were also inconsistent (p<0.001). Objective analysis was 16x more reliable than subjective analysis. The NCLs used wider ranges of the scale but were more variable than ECPs, implying that training may have an effect on grading. Conclusions: Objective analysis may offer a new gold standard in anterior ocular examination, and should be developed further as a clinical research tool to allow more highly powered analysis, and to enhance the clinical monitoring of anterior eye disease.

Reliability of vegetation community information derived using decorana ordination and fuzzy c-means clustering

Descriptions of vegetation communities are often based on vague semantic terms describing species presence and dominance. For this reason, some researchers advocate the use of fuzzy sets in the statistical classification of plant species data into communities. In this study, spatially referenced vegetation abundance values collected from Greek phrygana were analysed by ordination (DECORANA), and classified on the resulting axes using fuzzy c-means to yield a point data-set representing local memberships in characteristic plant communities. The fuzzy clusters matched vegetation communities noted in the field, which tended to grade into one another, rather than occupying discrete patches. The fuzzy set representation of the community exploited the strengths of detrended correspondence analysis while retaining richer information than a TWINSPAN classification of the same data. Thus, in the absence of phytosociological benchmarks, meaningful and manageable habitat information could be derived from complex, multivariate species data. We also analysed the influence of the reliability of different surveyors' field observations by multiple sampling at a selected sample location. We show that the impact of surveyor error was more severe in the Boolean than the fuzzy classification. © 2007 Springer.

Annealing and temperature coefficient study of type IA fibre Bragg gratings inscribed under strain and no strain - Implications to optical fibre component reliability

The annealing properties of Type IA Bragg gratings are investigated and compared with Type I and Type IIA Bragg gratings. The transmission properties (mean and modulated wavelength components) of gratings held at predetermined temperatures are recorded from which decay characteristics are inferred. Our data show critical results concerning the high temperature stability of Type IA gratings, as they undergo a drastic initial decay at 100°C, with a consequent mean index change that is severely reduced at this temperature However, the modulated index change of IA gratings remains stable at lower annealing temperatures of 80°C, and the mean index change decays at a comparable rate to Type I gratings at 80°C. Extending this work to include the thermal decay of Type IA gratings inscribed under strain shows that the application of strain quite dramatically transforms the temperature characteristics of the Type IA grating, modifying the temperature coefficient and annealing curves, with the grating showing a remarkable improvement in high temperature stability, leading to a robust grating that can survive temperatures exceeding 180°C. Under conditions of inscription under strain it is found that the temperature coefficient increases, but is maintained at a value considerably different to the Type I grating. Therefore, the combination of Type I and IA (strained) gratings make it possible to decouple temperature and strain over larger temperature excursions.

Reliability of fibre Bragg gratings in polymer optical fibre

In this paper we report on investigations of some of the factors that have a bearing on the reliability and repeatability of polymer fibre Bragg gratings. The main issues discussed are the fibre preform composition, the fibre drawing conditions and the thermal history of the fibre grating.

Reliability estimation of second life battery system power electronic topologies for grid frequency response applications

This paper is part of a project which aims to research the opportunities for the re-use of batteries after their primary use in low and ultra low carbon vehicles on the electricity grid system. One potential revenue stream is to provide primary/secondary/high frequency response to National Grid through market mechanisms via DNO's or Energy service providers. Some commercial battery energy storage systems (BESS) already exist on the grid system, but these tend to use costly new or high performance batteries. Second life batteries should be available at lower cost than new batteries but reliability becomes an important issue as individual batteries may suffer from degraded performance or failure. Therefore converter topology design could be used to influence the overall system reliability. A detailed reliability calculation of different single phase battery-to-grid converter interfacing schemes is presented. A suitable converter topology for robust and reliable BESS is recommended.

Reliability for Beta Models

In the area of stress-strength models there has been a large amount of work as regards estimation of the reliability R = Pr(X2 < X1 ) when X1 and X2 are independent random variables belonging to the same univariate family of distributions. The algebraic form for R = Pr(X2 < X1 ) has been worked out for the majority of the well-known distributions including Normal, uniform, exponential, gamma, weibull and pareto. However, there are still many other distributions for which the form of R is not known. We have identified at least some 30 distributions with no known form for R. In this paper we consider some of these distributions and derive the corresponding forms for the reliability R. The calculations involve the use of various special functions.

Calculation of Reliability Characteristics for Regenerative Models

If a regenerative process is represented as semi-regenerative, we derive formulae enabling us to calculate basic characteristics associated with the first occurrence time starting from corresponding characteristics for the semi-regenerative process. Recursive equations, integral equations, and Monte-Carlo algorithms are proposed for practical solving of the problem.

People consider reliability and cost when verifying their autobiographical memories

Because memories are not always accurate, people rely on a variety of strategies to verify whether the events that they remember really did occur. Several studies have examined which strategies people tend to use, but none to date has asked why people opt for certain strategies over others. Here we examined the extent to which people's beliefs about the reliability and the cost of different strategies would determine their strategy selection. Subjects described a childhood memory and then suggested strategies they might use to verify the accuracy of that memory. Next, they rated the reliability and cost of each strategy, and the likelihood that they might use it. Reliability and cost each predicted strategy selection, but a combination of the two ratings provided even greater predictive value. Cost was significantly more influential than reliability, which suggests that a tendency to seek and to value "cheap" information more than reliable information could underlie many real-world memory errors. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Increasing Reliability and Improving the Process of Accumulator Charging Based on the Development of PCGraph Application

The article presents the software written in Builder C++ that monitors the process of processor impulse charger. Protocol, interface, components used and the future research are presented.

Reliability of retinal vessel calibre measurements using a retinal oximeter

Background: Summarised retinal vessel diameters are linked to systemic vascular pathology. Monochromatic images provide best contrast to measure vessel calibres. However, when obtaining images with a dual wavelength oximeter the red-free image can be extracted as the green channel information only which in turn will reduce the number of photographs taken at a given time. This will reduce patient exposure to the camera flash and could provide sufficient quality images to reliably measure vessel calibres. Methods: We obtained retinal images of one eye of 45 healthy participants. Central retinal arteriolar and central retinal venular equivalents (CRAE and CRVE, respectively) were measured using semi-automated software from two monochromatic images: one taken with a red-free filter and one extracted from the green channel of a dual wavelength oximetry image. Results: Participants were aged between 21 and 62 years, all were normotensive (SBP: 115 (12) mmHg; DBP: 72 (10) mmHg) and had normal intra-ocular pressures (12 (3) mmHg). Bland-Altman analysis revealed good agreement of CRAE and CRVE as obtained from both images (mean bias CRAE = 0.88; CRVE = 2.82). Conclusions: Summarised retinal vessel calibre measurements obtained from oximetry images are in good agreement to those obtained using red-free photographs.