Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Body composition and quality of life (QoL) of the elderly offered by the ""University Third Age`` (UTA) in Brazil

The investigation of the factors that interfere in the well-being of the elderly and their QoL can provide theoretical and methodological subsidies in structuring actions and policies in the health area, in order to fulfill the needs of that population. In this descriptive transversal study, body composition and QoL of elderly women at the UTA program in Piracicaba (Sao Paulo, Brazil) were verified. The participants were 81 women from UTA, and the general levels of physical activity were evaluated, as well as body weight (BW), height, and bodymass index (BMI). The waist circumference (WC) was measured at the level of the umbilical scar and the body composition by impedance (BIA 310e). QoL was verified by means of WHOQOL-Bref and statistical analysis developed with the SAS program. The decrease of weight, height, BMI, and fat-free mass (FFM) was observed among the several age groups, although with no significant difference. The average levels of the general QoL scores and physical, psychological and environmental domains decreased in higher age groups, but social domains showed the opposite result. This fact can be a particular characteristic of the UTA group, and factors the influence such behavior are yet to be studied. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Large-scale ecological restoration of high-diversity tropical forests in SE Brazil

The complex interactions among endangered ecosystems, landowners` interests, and different models of land tenure and use, constitute an important series of challenges for those seeking to maintain and restore biodiversity and augment the flow of ecosystem services. Over the past 10 years, we have developed a data-based approach to address these challenges and to achieve medium and large-scale ecological restoration of riparian areas on private lands in the state of Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil. Given varying motivations for ecological restoration, the location of riparian areas within landholdings, environmental zoning of different riparian areas, and best-practice restoration methods were developed for each situation. A total of 32 ongoing projects, covering 527,982 ha, were evaluated in large sugarcane farms and small mixed farms, and six different restoration techniques have been developed to help upscale the effort. Small mixed farms had higher portions of land requiring protection as riparian areas (13.3%), and lower forest cover of riparian areas (18.3%), than large sugarcane farms (10.0% and 36.9%, respectively for riparian areas and forest cover values). In both types of farms, forest fragments required some degree of restoration. Historical anthropogenic degradation has compromised forest ecosystem structure and functioning, despite their high-diversity of native tree and shrub species. Notably, land use patterns in riparian areas differed markedly. Large sugarcane farms had higher portions of riparian areas occupied by highly mechanized agriculture, abandoned fields, and anthropogenic wet fields created by siltation in water courses. In contrast, in small mixed crop farms, low or non-mechanized agriculture and pasturelands were predominant. Despite these differences, plantations of native tree species covering the entire area was by far the main restoration method needed both by large sugarcane farms (76.0%) and small mixed farms (92.4%), in view of the low resilience of target sites, reduced forest cover, and high fragmentation, all of which limit the potential for autogenic restoration. We propose that plantations should be carried out with a high-diversity of native species in order to create biologically viable restored forests, and to assist long-term biodiversity persistence at the landscape scale. Finally, we propose strategies to integrate the political, socio-economic and methodological aspects needed to upscale restoration efforts in tropical forest regions throughout Latin America and elsewhere. (C) 2010 Elsevier BA/. All rights reserved.

Letters and cities: reading the urban environment with the help of perception theories

When wandering around a city such as Sao Paulo, we are surrounded by letters, numbers and symbols. These elements form part of an environment full of signs in many shapes and sizes that compete for our attention. Our perception of these elements contributes towards our spatial guidance and sense of place. The idea of `reading` the city, or urban environment, was introduced by Kevin Lynch, for whom reading the urban structure follows on from recognizing or identifying its numerous visual elements, not necessarily verbal ones. Beginning with a brief bibliographic review of perception theories, this article combines concepts from environmental psychology with concerns brought up by the fields of information design and epigraphy studies, setting out the basis of a methodological proposal for the study of typography and lettering in the urban environment.

Beauty, Class and Discourse: Issues in Debate

In this text we proceed through a brief review of Naomi Lee`s (2009) article, highlighting her significant contributions to social and cultural psychology. In our dialogue with her text we inquire about some arguments and methodological procedures she presents. We raise some specific questions related to how the issue of beauty is framed, and we ponder on how a broadening of the scope to include history-of ideas, of relations-would bring some important elements to her approach. As Lee relates beauty and class, we examine the nuanced meanings of lack and deficiency in her analytical work. We also discuss her assumptions and position concerning discourse and dialogue which mark her ways of proceeding through the analysis of the interviews. We speculate that the depersonalized answer appointed in the interviewees` discourse can be related to a way of considering beauty as disembodied.

Quality of Reporting of Observational Longitudinal Research

Observational longitudinal research is particularly useful for assessing etiology and prognosis and for providing evidence for clinical decision making. However, there are no structured reporting requirements for studies of this design to assist authors, editors, and readers. The authors developed and tested a checklist of criteria related to threats to the internal and external validity of observational longitudinal studies. The checklist criteria concerned recruitment, data collection, biases, and data analysis and descriptive issues relevant to study rationale, study population, and generalizability. Two raters independently assessed 49 randomly selected articles describing stroke research published from 1999 to 2003 in six journals: American Journal of Epidemiology, Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, Stroke, Annals of Neurology, Archives of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, and American Journal of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. On average, 17 of the 33 checklist criteria were reported. Criteria describing the study design were better reported than those related to internal validity. No relation was found between study type (etiologic or prognostic) or word count and quality of reporting. A flow diagram for summarizing participant flow through a study was developed. Editors and authors should consider using a checklist and flow diagram when reporting on observational longitudinal research.

[beta]-Hydroxy-F128b-Methylbutyrate (HMB) Supplementation and the Promotion of Muscle Growth and Strength

[beta]-Hydroxy [beta]-methylbutyrate (HMB), a metabolite of the essential amino acid leucine, is one of the latest dietary supplements promoted to enhance gains in strength and lean body mass associated with resistance training. Unlike anabolic hormones that induce muscle hypertrophy by increasing muscle protein synthesis, HMB is claimed to influence strength and lean body mass by acting as an anticatabolic agent, minimising protein breakdown and damage to cells that may occur with intense exercise. Research on HMB has recently tested this hypothesis, under the assumption that it may be the active compound associated with the anticatabolic effects of leucine and its metabolites. While much of the available literature is preliminary in nature and not without methodological concern, there is support for the claims made regarding HMB supplementation, at least in young, previously untrained individuals. A mechanism by which this may occur is unknown, but research undertaken to date suggests there may be a reduction in skeletal muscle damage, although this has not been assessed directly. The response of resistance trained and older individuals to HMB administration is less clear. While the results of research conducted to date appear encouraging, caution must be taken when interpreting outcomes as most manuscripts are presented in abstract form only, not having to withstand the rigors of peer review. Of the literature reviewed relating to HMB administration during resistance training, only 2 papers are full manuscripts appearing in peer reviewed journals. The remaining 8 papers are published as abstracts only, making it difficult to critically review the research. There is clearly a need for more tightly controlled, longer duration studies to verify if HMB enhances strength and muscular hypertrophy development associated with resistance training across a range of groups, including resistance trained individuals.

Deconstructing sport history: The postmodern challenge

The crisis in the historical profession today is both conceptual and political, both methodological and practical. To the crises of the decline of great narrative history for the popular audience, the multiculturalist challenge to Eurocentric history, and the loss of faith in grand themes of progress and liberation that provided moral and political guidance through history’s lessons, must be added the crisis created by the implications of literary and rhetorical theory for the very practice of history itself.

Popper and his Commentators on the Discovery of Neptune: a close shave for the Law of Gravitation?

Knowledge of residual perturbations in the orbit of Uranus in the early 1840s did not lead to the refutation of Newton's law of gravitation but instead to the discovery of Neptune in 1846. Karl Popper asserts that this case is atypical of science and that the law of gravitation was at least prima facie falsified by these perturbations. I argue that these assertions are the product of a false, a priori methodological position I call, 'Weak Popperian Falsificationism' (WPF). Further, on the evidence the law was not prima facie false and was not generally considered so by astronomers at the time. Many of Popper's commentators (Kuhn, Lakatos, Feyerabend and others) presuppose WPF and their views on this case and its implications for scientific rationality and method suffer from this same defect.

Review of Interpersonal adaptation: Dyadic interaction patterns By Judee K. Burgoon, Lesa

In this ambitious book, Burgoon, Stern, and Dillman present the most comprehensive coverage of the literature on interpersonal adaptation that I have seen in recent years. Their mission is to make a critical examination of this whole area from both theoretical and methodological perspectives, and then to present their own synthetic theory (interpersonal adaptation theory, IAT) and research agenda. Such a mission produces very high expectations in readers, and inevitably some readers will feel that the authors do not achieve all of it. Personally, I was impressed by how much they do achieve, and I was intrigued by the questions they did not answer. One can ask no more than this of any single book.

Linking client and employee perceptions of the organization: A study of client satisfaction with health care services

Client satisfaction with health care sen ices has usually been researched in terms of socio-demographic and predispositional characteristics associated with the client. The present study included organizational characteristics as predictors of client satisfaction with health care services. Participants in the research were clients and employees of an Australian public-sector health care organization who responded to separate client and employee questionnaires. Hierarchical regression analyses indicated that, after controlling for a number of client characteristics, organizational characteristics, as perceived by employees, accounted for a significant proportion of additional variance in client satisfaction with health care services. Results of the present study provided some support for the proposition that employee perceptions of the working environment should be considered in a more comprehensive understanding of client satisfaction with health care services. Limitations of the study highlight practical difficulties in the assessment of client outcomes and methodological complexities in linking individual and organizational processes.

Educational characteristics of students with high or low self-concept

In response to methodological concerns associated with previous research into the educational characteristics of students with high or low self-concept, the topic was re-examined using a significantly more representative sample and a contemporary self-concept measure. From an initial screening of 515 preadolescent, coeducational students in 18 schools, students significantly high or low in self-concept were compared using standardized tests in reading, spelling, and mathematics, and teacher interviews to determine students' academic and nonacademic characteristics. The teachers were not informed of the self-concept status of the students. Compared to students with low self-concept, students with high self-concept were rated by teachers as being more popular, cooperative, and persistent in class, showed greater leadership, were lower in anxiety, had more supportive families, and had higher teacher expectations for their future success. Teachers observed that students with low self-concept were quiet and withdrawn, while peers with high self-concept were talkative and more dominating with peers. Students with lower self-concepts were also lower than their peers in reading, spelling, and mathematical abilities. The findings support the notion that there is an interactive relationship between self-concept and achievement. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

The effects of work control and job demands on employee adjustment and work performance

The present study examined the effects of work control and job demands on employee adjustment and work performance using a multidimensional measure of work control (assessing levels of task control, decision control and work scheduling control). It was proposed that the negative effects of job demands and employee adjustment would be moderated by high levels of task control. It was also proposed that there would be evidence of main effects of both job demands and work control (particularly task-related levels of control) on employee adjustment. To test these predictions, a study of 135 university employees holding administrative positions was undertaken. Methodological improvements over previous research included the use of both self-reported adjustment measures and supervisor ratings of work performance as outcome variables, and the assessment of the predictor and outcome measures at different points in time (self-reported adjustment was assessed at both Times 1 and 2). The results revealed some support for the proposal that the effects of job demands would be buffered by high levels of task control, but not more peripheral aspects of work control. There were also significant main effects of task control on job satisfaction.

Hybrid modelling of coupled pore fluid-solid deformation problems

A hybrid formulation for coupled pore fluid-solid deformation problems is proposed. The scheme is a hybrid in the sense that we use a vertex centered finite volume formulation for the analysis of the pore fluid and a particle method for the solid in our model. The pore fluid formally occupies the same space as the solid particles. The size of the particles is not necessarily equal to the physical size of materials. A finite volume mesh for the pore fluid flow is generated by Delaunay triangulation. Each triangle possesses an initial porosity. Changes of the porosity are specified by the translations of the mass centers of particles. Net pore pressure gradients are applied to the particle centers and are considered in the particle momentum balance. The potential of our model is illustrated by means of a simulation of coupled fracture and fluid flow developed in porous rock under biaxial compression condition.