What is what?: A simple time-domain test of long-memory vs. structural breaks

This paper proposes a new time-domain test of a process being I(d), 0 < d = 1, under the null, against the alternative of being I(0) with deterministic components subject to structural breaks at known or unknown dates, with the goal of disentangling the existing identification issue between long-memory and structural breaks. Denoting by AB(t) the different types of structural breaks in the deterministic components of a time series considered by Perron (1989), the test statistic proposed here is based on the t-ratio (or the infimum of a sequence of t-ratios) of the estimated coefficient on yt-1 in an OLS regression of ?dyt on a simple transformation of the above-mentioned deterministic components and yt-1, possibly augmented by a suitable number of lags of ?dyt to account for serial correlation in the error terms. The case where d = 1 coincides with the Perron (1989) or the Zivot and Andrews (1992) approaches if the break date is known or unknown, respectively. The statistic is labelled as the SB-FDF (Structural Break-Fractional Dickey- Fuller) test, since it is based on the same principles as the well-known Dickey-Fuller unit root test. Both its asymptotic behavior and finite sample properties are analyzed, and two empirical applications are provided.

Comparing and validating hypothesis test procedures: Graphical and numerical tools

When the behaviour of a specific hypothesis test statistic is studied by aMonte Carlo experiment, the usual way to describe its quality is by givingthe empirical level of the test. As an alternative to this procedure, we usethe empirical distribution of the obtained \emph{p-}values and exploit itsinformation both graphically and numerically.

Geophysical Investigations for Hydrogeological Characterization at the Kappelen Test Site (Switzerland)

Vertical electric soundings, 2D resistivity imaging and several logging measurements were performed at Kappelen test site to identify the various geolelectric facies that allowed determining the tabular and horizontal structure of the aquifer. The surface-based geoelectric methods allowed for a reliable characterization of the overall structure and the geometry of the aquifer, while geophysical logging methods allowed for inferring detailed hydrogeophysical characteristics, such as the electrical resistivity, total porosity, global and matrix density and hydraulic conductivity. The synoptic interpretation and integration of this broad and diverse database allows for constraining the key hydrological characteristics and hence forms the basis for the detailed hydraulic modelling of flow and transport process.

Spaced training facilitates long-term retention of place navigation in adult but not in adolescent rats

Young and adult Long Evans rats were tested in the water maze according to two different procedures: half of the subjects were given one session of four trials a day for 6 days, whereas the other subjects had the same amount of training massed in 1 day. For both conditions, a 14-day retention interval was then introduced to test long-term memory. This was followed by a four-trial reversal session. All groups showed a significant learning curve, but escape latencies were shorter for the adult than for the young rats, without differential effect of the training procedure. A first probe trial (PT1) confirmed similar accurate short-term retention in all the groups. But unimpaired long-term memory was only seen in the adult rats trained with the spaced procedure. The young rats trained over 1 day also showed some retention of the platform location after 14 days, but not the other two groups. Reversal acquisition of the new platform location was rapid in the four groups. These results indicate that although accurate short-term spatial memory in the water maze is seen after a 1-day massed training in both age groups, unimpaired long-term retention is only observed in adult rats trained with 24-h inter-session intervals.

Test of four colon cancer risk-scores in formalin fixed paraffin embedded microarray gene expression data.

BACKGROUND: Prognosis prediction for resected primary colon cancer is based on the T-stage Node Metastasis (TNM) staging system. We investigated if four well-documented gene expression risk scores can improve patient stratification. METHODS: Microarray-based versions of risk-scores were applied to a large independent cohort of 688 stage II/III tumors from the PETACC-3 trial. Prognostic value for relapse-free survival (RFS), survival after relapse (SAR), and overall survival (OS) was assessed by regression analysis. To assess improvement over a reference, prognostic model was assessed with the area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. All statistical tests were two-sided, except the AUC increase. RESULTS: All four risk scores (RSs) showed a statistically significant association (single-test, P < .0167) with OS or RFS in univariate models, but with HRs below 1.38 per interquartile range. Three scores were predictors of shorter RFS, one of shorter SAR. Each RS could only marginally improve an RFS or OS model with the known factors T-stage, N-stage, and microsatellite instability (MSI) status (AUC gains < 0.025 units). The pairwise interscore discordance was never high (maximal Spearman correlation = 0.563) A combined score showed a trend to higher prognostic value and higher AUC increase for OS (HR = 1.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.44 to 2.10, P < .001, AUC from 0.6918 to 0.7321) and RFS (HR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.33 to 1.84, P < .001, AUC from 0.6723 to 0.6945) than any single score. CONCLUSIONS: The four tested gene expression-based risk scores provide prognostic information but contribute only marginally to improving models based on established risk factors. A combination of the risk scores might provide more robust information. Predictors of RFS and SAR might need to be different.

HIERFSTAT, a package for R to compute and test hierarchical F-statistics

The package HIERFSTAT for the statistical software R, created by the R Development Core Team, allows the estimate of hierarchical F-statistics from a hierarchy with any numbers of levels. In addition, it allows testing the statistical significance of population differentiation for these different levels, using a generalized likelihood-ratio test. The package HIERFSTAT is available at http://www.unil.ch/popgen/softwares/hierfstat.htm.

Altered vision during motion: an unusual symptom of cerebellar dysfunction, quantifiable by a simple clinical test.

PURPOSE: To report a series of patients with cerebellar dysfunction and altered vision during motion, and to quantify their visual impairment in motion with a simple clinical test. METHODS: Twenty consecutive patients suffering from cerebellar dysfunction and altered vision during motion were examined between 1994 and 2007. A control group consisted of 20 age- and sex-matched healthy people. All patients had a full neuro-ophthalmic examination. Near visual acuity (NVA) was measured at rest (static NVA) and during chair rotation (dynamic NVA). Distance visual acuity (DVA) was measured at rest (static DVA) and during rotation of the patient's head (dynamic DVA). RESULTS: Only four of the 20 patients reported altered vision during motion spontaneously. The remaining 16 patients admitted this unusual visual disturbance only when asked specifically. All patients exhibited abnormal eye movements, including saccadic smooth pursuit (20/20), dysmetric saccades (15/20), nystagmus (19/20) and impaired suppression of vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) (20/20). During rotation of the examination chair (dynamic NVA), the drop in NVA averaged 5.6 lines (range 1-10 lines). During rotation of the patient's head (dynamic DVA), the drop in DVA averaged only 2.5 lines (range 0-10 lines). For the control group, there was no significant drop in NVA under dynamic conditions. CONCLUSION: Patients with cerebellar dysfunction rarely complain spontaneously of altered vision during motion. However, specific questioning may bring up this unusual symptom. The use of a simple clinical test, consisting of NVA measurement during rotation of the examination chair (dynamic NVA), allows practitioners to quantify the level of visual impairment in patients presenting altered VOR modulation.

Intrahippocampal cholinergic grafts in aged rats compensate impairments in a radial maze and in a place learning task

Age-related cognitive impairments were studied in rats kept in semi-enriched conditions during their whole life, and tested during ontogeny and adult life in various classical spatial tasks. In addition, the effect of intrahippocampal grafts of fetal septal-diagonal band tissue, rich in cholinergic neurons, was studied in some of these subjects. The rats received bilateral cell suspensions when aged 23-24 months. Starting 4 weeks after grafting, they were trained during 5 weeks in an 8-arm maze made of connected plexiglass tunnels. No age-related impairment was detected during the first eight trials, when the maze shape was that of a classical radial maze in which the rats had already been trained when young. The older rats were impaired when the task was made more difficult by rendering two arms parallel to each other. They developed an important neglect of one of the parallel tunnels resulting in a high amount of errors before completion of the task. In addition, the old rats developed a systematic response pattern of visits to adjacent arms in a sequence, which was not observed in the younger subjects. None of these behaviours were observed in the old rats with a septal transplant. Sixteen weeks after grafting, another experiment was conducted in a homing hole board task. Rats were allowed to escape from a large circular arena through one hole out of many, and to reach home via a flexible tube under the table. The escape hole was at a fixed position according to distant room cues, and olfactory cues were made irrelevant by rotating the table between the trials. An additional cue was placed on the escape position. No age-related difference in escape was observed during training. During a probe trial with no hole connected and no proximal cue present, the old untreated rats were less clearly focussed on the training sector than were either the younger or the grafted old subjects. Taken together, these experiments indicate that enriched housing conditions and spatial training during adult life do not protect against all age-related deterioration in spatial ability. However, it might be that the considerable improvement observed in the grafted subjects results from an interaction between the graft treatment and the housing conditions.

A new blood-based screening test for colorectal cancer: a pilot study

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) can be cured when diagnosed in its early or precancerous (adenoma) stages. Mostly due to poor compliance towards invasive screening procedures, detection rates for adenoma and early CRCs are still low. Available non-invasive screening tests have unfortunately low sensitivity and specificity performances. Therefore, there is a large unmet need calling for a cost-effective, reliable and non-invasive test to screen for early neoplastic and pre-neoplastic lesions. Objective: To develop a routine screening test based on a nucleic acids multi-gene assay performed on peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) that can detect early CRCs and adenomas. Methods: 116 patients (mean age: 55 years; range: 18 to 74 years; female/male ration 0.98) were included in this pilot, nonblinded, colonoscopy-controlled study. Colonoscopy revealed 21 patients with CRC, 30 patients with adenoma bigger than 1 cm, 24 patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and 41 patients had no neoplastic or inflammatory lesions. Blood samples were taken from each patient the day of the colonoscopy and PBMCs were purified. Total RNA was extracted following standard procedures. Multiplex RT-qPCR was applied on 92 different candidate biomarkers. Different univariate and multivariate statistical methods were applied on these candidates, and among them, 57 biomarkers with significant p values (<0.01, Wilcoxon test) were selected, including ADAMTS1, MMP9, CXCL10, CXCR4, VEGFA and CDH1. Two distinct biomarker signatures are used to separate patients without neoplastic lesion from those with cancer (named COLOX 1 test), respectively from those with adenoma (named COLOX 2 test). Result: COLOX 1 and 2 tests have successfully separated patients without neoplastic lesion from those with CRC (sensitivity 70%, specificity 90%, AUC 0.88), respectively from those with adenoma bigger than 1cm (sensitivity 61%, specificity 80%, AUC 0.80). 6/24 patients in the IBD group have a positive COLOX 1 test. Conclusion: These two COLOX tests demonstrated an acceptable sensitivity and a high specificity to detect the presence of CRCs and adenomas bigger than 1 cm. The false positives COLOX 1 test in IBD patients could possibly be due to the chronic inflammatory state. A prospective, multicenter, pivotal study is underway in order to confirm these promising results in a larger cohort.

The trail making test as a screening instrument for driving performance in older drivers; a translational research.

BACKGROUND: In many countries, primary care physicians determine whether or not older drivers are fit to drive. Little, however, is known regarding the effects of cognitive decline on driving performance and the means to detect it. This study explores to what extent the trail making test (TMT) can provide indications to clinicians about their older patients' on-road driving performance in the context of cognitive decline. METHODS: This translational study was nested within a cohort study and an exploratory psychophysics study. The target population of interest was constituted of older drivers in the absence of important cognitive or physical disorders. We therefore recruited and tested 404 home-dwelling drivers, aged 70 years or more and in possession of valid drivers' licenses, who volunteered to participate in a driving refresher course. Forty-five drivers also agreed to undergo further testing at our lab. On-road driving performance was evaluated by instructors during a 45 minute validated open-road circuit. Drivers were classified as either being excellent, good, moderate, or poor depending on their score on a standardized evaluation of on-road driving performance. RESULTS: The area under the receiver operator curve for detecting poorly performing drivers was 0.668 (CI95% 0.558 to 0.778) for the TMT-A, and 0.662 (CI95% 0.542 to 0.783) for the TMT-B. TMT was related to contrast sensitivity, motion direction, orientation discrimination, working memory, verbal fluency, and literacy. Older patients with a TMT-A ≥ 54 seconds or a TMT-B ≥ 150 seconds have a threefold (CI95% 1.3 to 7.0) increased risk of performing poorly during the on-road evaluation. TMT had a sensitivity of 63.6%, a specificity of 64.9%, a positive predictive value of 9.5%, and a negative predictive value of 96.9%. CONCLUSION: In screening settings, the TMT would have clinicians uselessly consider driving cessation in nine drivers out of ten. Given the important negative impact this could have on older drivers, this study confirms the TMT not to be specific enough for clinicians to justify driving cessation without complementary investigations on driving behaviors.

Dealing with clients' diversity in test situations: Client categorisations in psychologists' accounts of their practices

Reducing a test administration to standardised procedures reflects the test designers' standpoint. However, from the practitioners' standpoint, each client is unique. How do psychologists deal with both standardised test administration and clients' diversity? To answer this question, we interviewed 17 psychologists working in three public services for children and adolescents about their assessment practices. We analysed the numerous "client categorisations" they produced in their accounts. We found that they had shared perceptions about their clients' diversity, and reported various non-standard practices that complemented standardised test administration, but also differed from them or were even forbidden. They seem to experience a dilemma between: (a) prescribed and situated practices; (b) scientific and situated reliability; (c) commutative and distributive justice. For practitioners, dealing with clients' diversity this is a practical problem, halfway between a problem-solving task and a moral dilemma.

Passive knee-extension test to measure hamstring tightness: influence of gravity correction

CONTEXT: A passive knee-extension test has been shown to be a reliable method of assessing hamstring tightness, but this method does not take into account the potential effect of gravity on the tested leg. OBJECTIVE: To compare an original passive knee-extension test with 2 adapted methods including gravity's effect on the lower leg. DESIGN: Repeated measures. SETTING: Laboratory. PARTICIPANTS: 20 young track and field athletes (16.6 ± 1.6 y, 177.6 ± 9.2 cm, 75.9 ± 24.8 kg). INTERVENTION: Each subject was tested in a randomized order with 3 different methods: In the original one (M1), passive knee angle was measured with a standard force of 68.7 N (7 kg) applied proximal to the lateral malleolus. The second (M2) and third (M3) methods took into account the relative lower-leg weight (measured respectively by handheld dynamometer and anthropometrical table) to individualize the force applied to assess passive knee angle. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Passive knee angles measured with video-analysis software. RESULTS: No difference in mean individualized applied force was found between M2 and M3, so the authors assessed passive knee angle only with M2. The mean knee angle was different between M1 and M2 (68.8 ± 12.4 vs 73.1 ± 10.6, P < .001). Knee angles in M1 and M2 were correlated (r = .93, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Differences in knee angle were found between the original passive knee-extension test and a method with gravity correction. M2 is an improved version of the original method (M1) since it minimizes the effect of gravity. Therefore, we recommend using it rather than M1.

How to screen for problematic cannabis use in population surveys: an evaluation of the Cannabis Use Disorders Identification Test (CUDIT) in a Swiss sample of adolescents and young adults.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Cannabis use is a growing challenge for public health, calling for adequate instruments to identify problematic consumption patterns. The Cannabis Use Disorders Identification Test (CUDIT) is a 10-item questionnaire used for screening cannabis abuse and dependency. The present study evaluated that screening instrument. METHODS: In a representative population sample of 5,025 Swiss adolescents and young adults, 593 current cannabis users replied to the CUDIT. Internal consistency was examined by means of Cronbach's alpha and confirmatory factor analysis. In addition, the CUDIT was compared to accepted concepts of problematic cannabis use (e.g. using cannabis and driving). ROC analyses were used to test the CUDIT's discriminative ability and to determine an appropriate cut-off. RESULTS: Two items ('injuries' and 'hours being stoned') had loadings below 0.5 on the unidimensional construct and correlated lower than 0.4 with the total CUDIT score. All concepts of problematic cannabis use were related to CUDIT scores. An ideal cut-off between six and eight points was found. CONCLUSIONS: Although the CUDIT seems to be a promising instrument to identify problematic cannabis use, there is a need to revise some of its items.

Does Direct Democracy Matters for Political Parties : An Empirical Test in the Swiss Cantons

According to most political scientists and commentators, direct democracy seems to weaken political parties. Our empirical analysis in the 26 Swiss cantons shows that this thesis in its general form cannot be maintained. Political parties in cantons with extensive use of referendums and initiatives are not in all respects weaker than parties in cantons with little use of direct democratic means of participation. On the contrary, direct democracy goes together with more professional and formalized party organizations. Use of direct democracy is associated with more fragmented and volatile party systems, and with greater support for small parties, but causal interpretations of these relationships are difficult.