Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

The beliefs which motivate young male and female drivers to speed : a comparison of low and high intenders

In Australia, young drivers aged 17 to 24 years, and particularly males, have the highest risk of being involved in a fatal crash. Investigation of young drivers’ beliefs allows for a greater understanding of their involvement in risky behaviours, such as speeding, as beliefs are associated with intentions, the antecedent to behaviour. The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) was used to conceptualise beliefs using a scenario based questionnaire distributed to licensed drivers (N = 398). The questionnaire measured individual’s beliefs and intentions to speed in a particular situation. Consistent with a TPB-based approach, the beliefs of those with low intentions to speed (‘low intenders’) were compared with the beliefs of those with high intentions (‘high intenders’) with such comparisons conducted separately for males and females. Overall, significant differences in the beliefs held by low and high intenders and for both females and males were found. Specifically, for females, it was found that high intenders were significantly more likely to perceive advantages of speeding, less likely to perceive disadvantages, and more likely to be encouraged to speed on familiar and inappropriately signed roads than female low intenders. Females, however, did not differ in their perceptions of support from friends, with all females reporting some level of disapproval from most friends and all females (i.e., low and high intenders) reporting approval to speed from their male friends. The results for males revealed that high intenders were significantly more likely to speed on familiar and inappropriately signed roads as well as having greater perceptions of support from all friends, except from those friends with whom they worked. Low and high intending males did not differ in their perceptions of the advantages and disadvantages of speeding, with the exception of feelings of excitement whereby high intenders reported speeding to be more exciting than low intenders. The findings are discussed in terms of how they may directly inform the content of mass media and public education campaigns aimed at encouraging young drivers to slow down.

Propagation of low power low divergence Gaussian fields in unbiased self-defocusing photorefractive media and their interactions

Many optical networks are limited in speed and processing capability due to the necessity for the optical signal to be converted to an electrical signal and back again. In addition, electronically manipulated interconnects in an otherwise optical network lead to overly complicated systems. Optical spatial solitons are optical beams that propagate without spatial divergence. They are capable of phase dependent interactions, and have therefore been extensively researched as suitable all optical interconnects for over 20 years. However, they require additional external components, initially high voltage power sources were required, several years later, high power background illumination had replaced the high voltage. However, these additional components have always remained as the greatest hurdle in realising the applications of the interactions of spatial optical solitons as all optical interconnects. Recently however, self-focusing was observed in an otherwise self-defocusing photorefractive crystal. This observation raises the possibility of the formation of soliton-like fields in unbiased self-defocusing media, without the need for an applied electrical field or background illumination. This thesis will present an examination of the possibility of the formation of soliton-like low divergence fields in unbiased self-defocusing photorefractive media. The optimal incident beam and photorefractive media parameters for the formation of these fields will be presented, together with an analytical and numerical study of the effect of these parameters. In addition, preliminary examination of the interactions of two of these fields will be presented. In order to complete an analytical examination of the field propagating through the photorefractive medium, the spatial profile of the beam after propagation through the medium was determined. For a low power solution, it was found that an incident Gaussian field maintains its Gaussian profile as it propagates. This allowed the beam at all times to be described by an individual complex beam parameter, while also allowing simple analytical solutions to the appropriate wave equation. An analytical model was developed to describe the effect of the photorefractive medium on the Gaussian beam. Using this model, expressions for the required intensity dependent change in both the real and imaginary components of the refractive index were found. Numerical investigation showed that under certain conditions, a low powered Gaussian field could propagate in self-defocusing photorefractive media with divergence of approximately 0.1 % per metre. An investigation into the parameters of a Ce:BaTiO3 crystal showed that the intensity dependent absorption is wavelength dependent, and can in fact transition to intensity dependent transparency. Thus, with careful wavelength selection, the required intensity dependent change in both the real and imaginary components of the refractive index for the formation of a low divergence Gaussian field are physically realisable. A theoretical model incorporating the dependence of the change in real and imaginary components of the refractive index on propagation distance was developed. Analytical and numerical results from this model are congruent with the results from the previous model, showing low divergence fields with divergence less than 0.003 % over the propagation length of the photorefractive medium. In addition, this approach also confirmed the previously mentioned self-focusing effect of the self-defocusing media, and provided an analogy to a negative index GRIN lens with an intensity dependent focal length. Experimental results supported the findings of the numerical analysis. Two low divergence fields were found to possess the ability to interact in a Ce:BaTiO3 crystal in a soliton-like fashion. The strength of these interactions was found to be dependent on the degree of divergence of the individual beams. This research found that low-divergence fields are possible in unbiased self-defocusing photorefractive media, and that soliton-like interactions between two of these fields are possible. However, in order for these types of fields to be used in future all optical interconnects, the manipulation of these interactions, together with the ability for these fields to guide a second beam at a different wavelength, must be investigated.

p53 prevents progression of nevi to melanoma predominantly through cell cycle regulation

p53 is the central member of a critical tumor suppressor pathway in virtually all tumor types, where it is silenced mainly by missense mutations. In melanoma, p53 predominantly remains wild type, thus its role has been neglected. To study the effect of p53 on melanocyte function and melanomagenesis, we crossed the 'high-p53'Mdm4+/- mouse to the well-established TP-ras0/+ murine melanoma progression model. After treatment with the carcinogen dimethylbenzanthracene (DMBA), TP-ras0/+ mice on the Mdm4+/- background developed fewer tumors with a delay in the age of onset of melanomas compared to TP-ras0/+ mice. Furthermore, we observed a dramatic decrease in tumor growth, lack of metastasis with increased survival of TP-ras0/+: Mdm4+/- mice. Thus, p53 effectively prevented the conversion of small benign tumors to malignant and metastatic melanoma. p53 activation in cultured primary melanocyte and melanoma cell lines using Nutlin-3, a specific Mdm2 antagonist, supported these findings. Moreover, global gene expression and network analysis of Nutlin-3-treated primary human melanocytes indicated that cell cycle regulation through the p21WAF1/CIP1 signaling network may be the key anti-melanomagenic activity of p53.

Size effects on tensile and fatigue behaviour of polycrystalline metal foils at the micrometer scale

Tensile and fatigue properties of as-rolled and annealed polycrystalline Cu foils with different thicknesses at the micrometer scale were investigated. Uniaxial tensile testing results showed that with decreasing foil thickness the uniform elongation decreases for both as-rolled and annealed foils, whereas the yield strength and ultimate tensile strength increase for as-rolled foils, but decrease for the annealed foils. For both the as-rolled or annealed foils, bending fatigue resistance decreases with decreasing the foil thickness. Deformation and fatigue damage behaviour of the free-standing foils were characterised as a function of foil thickness. In addition, the fatigue strength of various small-scale Cu foils was compared to understand they physical mechanisms of size effects on mechanical properties of the metallic material at micrometer scales.