A Simple Artificial Life Model Explains Irrational Behavior in Human Decision-Making

Although praised for their rationality, humans often make poor decisions, even in simple situations. In the repeated binary choice experiment, an individual has to choose repeatedly between the same two alternatives, where a reward is assigned to one of them with fixed probability. The optimal strategy is to perseverate with choosing the alternative with the best expected return. Whereas many species perseverate, humans tend to match the frequencies of their choices to the frequencies of the alternatives, a sub-optimal strategy known as probability matching. Our goal was to find the primary cognitive constraints under which a set of simple evolutionary rules can lead to such contrasting behaviors. We simulated the evolution of artificial populations, wherein the fitness of each animat (artificial animal) depended on its ability to predict the next element of a sequence made up of a repeating binary string of varying size. When the string was short relative to the animats' neural capacity, they could learn it and correctly predict the next element of the sequence. When it was long, they could not learn it, turning to the next best option: to perseverate. Animats from the last generation then performed the task of predicting the next element of a non-periodical binary sequence. We found that, whereas animats with smaller neural capacity kept perseverating with the best alternative as before, animats with larger neural capacity, which had previously been able to learn the pattern of repeating strings, adopted probability matching, being outperformed by the perseverating animats. Our results demonstrate how the ability to make predictions in an environment endowed with regular patterns may lead to probability matching under less structured conditions. They point to probability matching as a likely by-product of adaptive cognitive strategies that were crucial in human evolution, but may lead to sub-optimal performances in other environments.

The role of evaluation in decision-making in the management of health services

The management of health services is a complex administrative practice due to the breadth of the field of health and the need to reconcile individual, corporate and collective interests that are not always convergent. In this context, the evaluation needs to have specific characteristics in order to fulfill its role. The scope of this study was to establish the characteristics that the evaluation for the management of health services should have to contribute to decision-making. Usefulness, opportunity, feasibility, reliability, objectivity and directionality represent the set of principles upon which the evaluation should be based. Evaluations should lead to decisions that guarantee not only their efficiency and effectiveness but also their implementation. The evaluation process should ensure that decisions involve all stakeholders in order to render the implementation of decisions feasible, and take into account the health needs of the population and the goals set for the services. The scope of this article is to elicit a debate among different stakeholders in the evaluation in the hope that it can contribute to the reflection on the real usefulness of evaluations in which the political component in management has been increasingly prevalent.

Nonlinear estimation of neural processing time from BOLD signal with application to decision-making

The extraction of information about neural activity timing from BOLD signal is a challenging task as the shape of the BOLD curve does not directly reflect the temporal characteristics of electrical activity of neurons. In this work, we introduce the concept of neural processing time (NPT) as a parameter of the biophysical model of the hemodynamic response function (HRF). Through this new concept we aim to infer more accurately the duration of neuronal response from the highly nonlinear BOLD effect. The face validity and applicability of the concept of NPT are evaluated through simulations and analysis of experimental time series. The results of both simulation and application were compared with summary measures of HRF shape. The experiment that was analyzed consisted of a decision-making paradigm with simultaneous emotional distracters. We hypothesize that the NPT in primary sensory areas, like the fusiform gyrus, is approximately the stimulus presentation duration. On the other hand, in areas related to processing of an emotional distracter, the NPT should depend on the experimental condition. As predicted, the NPT in fusiform gyrus is close to the stimulus duration and the NPT in dorsal anterior cingulate gyrus depends on the presence of an emotional distracter. Interestingly, the NPT in right but not left dorsal lateral prefrontal cortex depends on the stimulus emotional content. The summary measures of HRF obtained by a standard approach did not detect the variations observed in the NPT. Hum Brain Mapp, 2012. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Feelings of women regarding end-of-life decision making after ultrasound diagnosis of a lethal fetal malformation

Objective: this study investigated the feelings of women regarding end-of-life decision making after ultrasound diagnosis of a lethal fetal malformation. The aim of this study was to present the decision making process of women that chose for pregnancy termination and to present selected speeches of women about their feelings. Design: open psychological interviews conducted by a psychologist immediately after the diagnosis of fetal malformation by ultrasound. Analysis of the results was performed through a content analysis technique. Setting: the study was carried out at a public university hospital in Brazil. Participants: 249 pregnant women who had received the diagnosis of a severe lethal fetal malformation. Findings: fetal anencephaly was the most frequent anomaly detected in 135 cases (54.3%). Termination of pregnancy was decided by 172 (69.1%) patients and legally authorised by the judiciary (66%). The reason for asking for termination was to reduce suffering in all of them. In the 77 women who chose not to terminate pregnancy (30.9%), the reasons were related to feelings of guilt (74%). Key conclusions: the results support the importance of psychological counselling for couples when lethal fetal malformation is diagnosed. The act of reviewing moral and cultural values and elements of the unconscious provides assurance in the decision-making process and mitigates the risk of emotional trauma and guilt that can continue long after the pregnancy is terminated. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian Approach for Decision Making on the Identification of Genes with Different Expression Levels: An Application to Escherichia coli Bacterium Data

A common interest in gene expression data analysis is to identify from a large pool of candidate genes the genes that present significant changes in expression levels between a treatment and a control biological condition. Usually, it is done using a statistic value and a cutoff value that are used to separate the genes differentially and nondifferentially expressed. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to identify genes differentially expressed calculating sequentially credibility intervals from predictive densities which are constructed using the sampled mean treatment effect from all genes in study excluding the treatment effect of genes previously identified with statistical evidence for difference. We compare our Bayesian approach with the standard ones based on the use of the t-test and modified t-tests via a simulation study, using small sample sizes which are common in gene expression data analysis. Results obtained report evidence that the proposed approach performs better than standard ones, especially for cases with mean differences and increases in treatment variance in relation to control variance. We also apply the methodologies to a well-known publicly available data set on Escherichia coli bacterium.

A new method for decision making in multi-objective optimization problems

Many engineering sectors are challenged by multi-objective optimization problems. Even if the idea behind these problems is simple and well established, the implementation of any procedure to solve them is not a trivial task. The use of evolutionary algorithms to find candidate solutions is widespread. Usually they supply a discrete picture of the non-dominated solutions, a Pareto set. Although it is very interesting to know the non-dominated solutions, an additional criterion is needed to select one solution to be deployed. To better support the design process, this paper presents a new method of solving non-linear multi-objective optimization problems by adding a control function that will guide the optimization process over the Pareto set that does not need to be found explicitly. The proposed methodology differs from the classical methods that combine the objective functions in a single scale, and is based on a unique run of non-linear single-objective optimizers.

Strategic decision making in international firms: effect of top management team internationalization on international strategic decision process

In this research project, I have integrated two research streams on international strategic decisions making in international firms: upper echelons or top management teams (TMT) internationalization research and international strategic decision making process research. Both research streams in international business literature have evolved independently, but there is a potential in combining these two streams of research. The first empirical paper “TMT internationalization and international strategic decision making process: a decision level analysis of rationality, speed, and performance” explores the influence of TMT internationalization on strategic decision rationality and speed and, subsequently, their effect on international strategic decision effectiveness (performance). The results show that the internationalization of TMT is positively related to decision effectiveness and this relationship is mediated by decision rationality while the hypotheses regarding the association between TMT internationalization and decision speed, and the mediating effect of speed were not supported. The second paper “TMT internationalization and international strategic decision rationality: the mediating role of international information” of my thesis is a simple but logical extension of first paper. The first paper showed that TMT Internationalization has a significant positive effect on international strategic decision rationality. The second paper explicitly showed that TMT internationalization affect on international strategic decision rationality comes from two sources: international experience (personal international knowledge and information) and international information collected from managerial international contacts. For this research project, I have collected data from international software firms in Pakistan. My research contributes to the literature on upper echelons theory and strategic decision making in context of international business and international firms by explicitly examining the link between TMT internationalization and characteristics of strategic decisions making process (i.e. rationality and speed) in international firms and their possible mediating effect on performance.

Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Retrofit Options to Support Decision Making

How to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of repair/retrofit intervention vs. demolition/replacement and what level of shaking intensity can the chosen repairing/retrofit technique sustain are open questions affecting either the pre-earthquake prevention, the post-earthquake emergency and the reconstruction phases. The (mis)conception that the cost of retrofit interventions would increase linearly with the achieved seismic performance (%NBS) often discourages stakeholders to consider repair/retrofit options in a post-earthquake damage situation. Similarly, in a pre-earthquake phase, the minimum (by-law) level of %NBS might be targeted, leading in some cases to no-action. Furthermore, the performance measure enforcing owners to take action, the %NBS, is generally evaluated deterministically. Not directly reflecting epistemic and aleatory uncertainties, the assessment can result in misleading confidence on the expected performance. The present study aims at contributing to the delicate decision-making process of repair/retrofit vs. demolition/replacement, by developing a framework to assist stakeholders with the evaluation of the effects in terms of long-term losses and benefits of an increment in their initial investment (targeted retrofit level) and highlighting the uncertainties hidden behind a deterministic approach. For a pre-1970 case study building, different retrofit solutions are considered, targeting different levels of %NBS, and the actual probability of reaching Collapse when considering a suite of ground-motions is evaluated, providing a correlation between %NBS and Risk. Both a simplified and a probabilistic loss modelling are then undertaken to study the relationship between %NBS and expected direct and indirect losses.

Meeting the decision-making preferences of patients with breast cancer in oncology consultations: impact on decision-related outcomes

To investigate how involvement preferences of patients with breast cancer change during the treatment decision-making process and determine the impact of meeting patients' expectations on decision-making outcomes.

The Effect Of Conformity On Economic Decision Making

Inspired by research in the field of behavioral economics as well as social psychology, this study aimed to explore if conformity plays a role in the occurrence of herd behavior in the financial market. Participants received one of nine different versions of a survey either online or on paper. They answered questions related to riskiness when making decisions, dependency on others when making decisions, and investment preferences among other questions. In experimental conditions, participants were told the majority of investors, either sixty percent or eighty percent, invested in a certain stock or won a game. It was predicted that individuals would conform to the group behavior in both experimental conditions with the highest level of conformity in the high pressure to conform condition. Results of experiments revealed that when the overwhelming majority of other investors behaved a certain way (80%), participants were more likely to behave that same way. Results of the third experiment supported previous research stating that emotion affects economic decision-making and facilitates herd behavior.

Decision-Making Incapacity Among Nursing Home Residents: Results From the 1987 NMES Survey.

Recent legislative and regulatory developments have focused attention on older adults' capacity for involvement in health care decision-making. The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1987 (OBRA 87) focused attention on the rights of nursing home residents to be involved in health care decision-making to the fullest extent possible. This article uses data from the 1987 National Medical Expenditure Survey (NMES) to examine rates of incapacity for health care decision-making among nursing home residents. Elements of the Oklahoma statute were used to operationalize decision-making incapacity: disability or disorder, difficulty in decision-making or communicating decisions, and functional disability. Fifty-three percent of nursing home residents had a combination of either physical or mental impairment and an impairment in either self-care or money management. The discussion focuses on the policy and practice implications of significant rates of incapacity among nursing home residents.

Impact of the availability of an influenza virus rapid antigen test on diagnostic decision making in a pediatric emergency department

OBJECTIVES: Fever is one of the most commonly seen symptoms in the pediatric emergency department. The objective of this study was to observe how the rapid testing for influenza virus impacts on the management of children with fever. METHODS: We performed a review of our pediatric emergency department records during the 2008/2009 annual influenza season. The BinaxNow Influenza A+B test was performed on patients with the following criteria: age 1.0 to 16.0 years, fever greater than 38.5 °C, fever of less than 96 hours' duration after the onset of clinical illness, clinical signs compatible with acute influenza, and nontoxic appearance. Additional laboratory tests were performed at the treating physician's discretion. RESULTS: The influenza rapid antigen test was performed in 192 children. One hundred nine (57%) were influenza positive, with the largest fraction (101 patients) positive for influenza A. The age distribution did not differ between children with negative and positive test results (mean, 5.3 vs. 5.1 years, not statistically significant). A larger number of diagnostic tests were performed in the group of influenza-negative patients. Twice as many complete blood counts, C-reactive protein determinations, lumbar punctures, and urinalyses were ordered in the latter group. CONCLUSIONS: Rapid diagnosis of influenza in the pediatric emergency department affects the management of febrile children as the confirmation of influenza virus infection decreases additional diagnostic tests ordered.

Contrast-enhanced 3-D MRA in decision making for carotid endarterectomy: a 6-year experience

BACKGROUND: Systematic need for angiography in diagnosis of carotid artery stenosis and indication of surgical therapy is still debated. Noninvasive imaging techniques such as MR angiography (MRA) or CT angiography (CTA) offer an alternative to digital subtraction angiography (DSA) and are increasingly used in clinical practice. In this study, we present the radiological characteristics and clinical results of a series of patients operated on the basis of combined ultrasonography (US)/MRA. METHODS: This observational study included all the patients consecutively operated for a carotid stenosis in our Department from October 1998 to December 2004. The applied MRA protocol had previously been established in a large correlation study with DSA. DSA was used only in case of discordance between US and MRA. The preoperative radiological information furnished by MRA was compared with intraoperative findings. The outcome of the operation was assessed according to ECST criteria. RESULTS: Among 327 patients, preoperative MRA was performed in 278 (85%), DSA in 44 (13.5%) and CT angiography in 5 (1.5%). Most of DSA studies were performed as emergency for preparation of endovascular therapy or for reasons other than carotid stenosis. Eleven additional DSA (3.3%) complemented US/MRA, mostly because diverging diagnosis of subocclusion of ICA. No direct morbidity or intraoperative difficulty was related to preoperative MRA. Combined mortality/major morbidity rate was 0.9% (3 patients) and minor morbidity rate 5.5% (18 patients). CONCLUSIONS: This observational study describes a well-established practice of carotid surgery and supports the exclusive use of non invasive diagnostic imaging for indicating and deciding the operation.