Design options for sample-based mortality surveillance

Background Reliable information on causes of death is a fundamental component of health development strategies, yet globally only about one-third of countries have access to such information. For countries currently without adequate mortality reporting systems there are useful models other than resource-intensive population-wide medical certification. Sample-based mortality surveillance is one such approach. This paper provides methods for addressing appropriate sample size considerations in relation to mortality surveillance, with particular reference to situations in which prior information on mortality is lacking. Methods The feasibility of model-based approaches for predicting the expected mortality structure and cause composition is demonstrated for populations in which only limited empirical data is available. An algorithm approach is then provided to derive the minimum person-years of observation needed to generate robust estimates for the rarest cause of interest in three hypothetical populations, each representing different levels of health development. Results Modelled life expectancies at birth and cause of death structures were within expected ranges based on published estimates for countries at comparable levels of health development. Total person-years of observation required in each population could be more than halved by limiting the set of age, sex, and cause groups regarded as 'of interest'. Discussion The methods proposed are consistent with the philosophy of establishing priorities across broad clusters of causes for which the public health response implications are similar. The examples provided illustrate the options available when considering the design of mortality surveillance for population health monitoring purposes.

Role of smoking in global and regional cancer epidemiology: current patterns and data needs

Although smoking is widely recognized as a major cause of cancer, there is little information on how it contributes to the global and regional burden of cancers in combination with other risk factors that affect background cancer mortality patterns. We used data from the American Cancer Society's Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS-II) and the WHO and IARC cancer mortality databases to estimate deaths from 8 clusters of site-specific cancers caused by smoking, for 14 epidemiologic subregions of the world, by age and sex. We used lung cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking hazard. CPS-II hazards were adjusted for important covariates. In the year 2000, an estimated 1.42 (95% CI 1.27-1.57) million cancer deaths in the world, 21% of total global cancer deaths, were caused by smoking. Of these, 1.18 million deaths were among men and 0.24 million among women; 625,000 (95% CI 485,000-749,000) smoking-caused cancer deaths occurred in the developing world and 794,000 (95% CI 749,000-840,000) in industrialized regions. Lung cancer accounted for 60% of smoking-attributable cancer mortality, followed by cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract (20%). Based on available data, more than one in every 5 cancer deaths in the world in the year 2000 were caused by smoking, making it possibly the single largest preventable cause of cancer mortality. There was significant variability across regions in the role of smoking as a cause of the different site-specific cancers. This variability illustrates the importance of coupling research and surveillance of smoking with that for other risk factors for more effective cancer prevention. (C) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Six-month outcome for dysphagia following traumatic brain injury: Radiological assessment

The coexistence of a swallowing impairment, or dysphagia, can severely impact upon the medical condition and recovery of a child with traumatic brain injury (TBI; Logemann, Pepe, & Mackay, 1994). Despite this fact, there is limited data that provide evidence of the progression or outcome of dysphagia in the pediatric population post-TBI (Rowe, 1999). The present study aimed to (1) provide a prospective radiologically based profile of swallowing outcome and (2) determine the clinical significance of any persistent physiological swallowing deficits by investigating the presence/absence of any coexistent respiratory complications. Seven children with moderate/severe TBI were evaluated via an initial videofluoroscopic swallowing assessment (VFSS) at an average of 24.1 days postinjury, during the acute phase of management. A follow-up VFSS was conducted at an average of 7 months, 3 weeks postinjury. The physiological impairment, swallowing safety, swallowing efficiency, and functional swallowing outcomes of the acute phase post-TBI were compared with reassessment results at 6 months post-TBI. The presence/absence of lower respiratory tract infection/respiratory complications in the past 6 months postinjury were recorded.VFSS revealed a number of residual physiological oropharyngeal swallowing impairments and reduced swallowing efficiency. However, all participants presented with clinically safe and functional swallowing outcomes at 6 months post-TBI, with no recent history of respiratory complication. This study indicates good functional swallowing and respiratory outcomes for patients at 6-months post-TBI despite the presence of persistent physiological swallowing impairment.

Unprotected eyes in squash: not seeing the risk of injury

The use of appropriate eyewear in squash can protect the eyes against injury. However, few adult squash players adequately protect their eyes against potential severe injuries. We describe the characteristics of non-users of protective eyewear and examine predictors of appropriate eyewear use. Self-report surveys of adult players were conducted in metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. Information on players' knowledge, behaviours and attitudes associated with protective eyewear use was collected, in addition to player demographic data. Appropriate eyewear was defined as Standards-approved polycarbonate lens eyewear. The majority 92.2% of players did not adequately protect their eyes while playing squash. Significant predictors of reported eyewear use were: previous eye injury; playing squash on average more than 2 hr per wk; having played for more than 20 y; and having more favourable attitudes towards eye safety in squash. The significant predictors of appropriate eyewear use were: being female; previous eye injury; playing squash on average more than 2 hr per week; and having more favourable attitudes towards eye safety in squash. Understanding the characteristics of both users and non-users of appropriate eye protection in squash is essential for informing future prevention strategies.

The effects of a song-singing programme on the affective speaking intonation of people with traumatic brain injury

Primary objective: To examine changes in the relationship between intonation, voice range and mood following music therapy programmes in people with traumatic brain injury. Research design: Data from four case studies were pooled and effect size, ANOVA and correlation calculations were performed to evaluate the effectiveness of treatment. Methods and procedures: Subjects sang three self-selected songs for 15 sessions. Speaking fundamental frequency, fundamental frequency variability, slope, voice range and mood were analysed pre- and post-session. Results: Immediate treatment effects were not found. Long-term improvements in affective intonation were found in three subjects, especially in fundamental frequency. Voice range improved over time and was positively correlated with the three intonation components. Mood scale data showed that immediate effects were in the negative direction whereas there weres increases in positive mood state in the longer-term. Conclusions: Findings suggest that, in the long-term, song singing can improve vocal range and mood and enhance the affective intonation styles of people with TBI.

The evolution of the Global Burden of Disease framework for disease, injury and risk factor quantification: Developing the evidence base for national, regional and global public health action

Reliable, comparable information about the main causes of disease and injury in populations, and how these are changing, is a critical input for debates about priorities in the health sector. Traditional sources of information about the descriptive epidemiology of diseases, injuries and risk factors are generally incomplete, fragmented and of uncertain reliability and comparability. Lack of a standardized measurement framework to permit comparisons across diseases and injuries, as well as risk factors, and failure to systematically evaluate data quality have impeded comparative analyses of the true public health importance of various conditions and risk factors. As a consequence the impact of major conditions and hazards on population health has been poorly appreciated, often leading to a lack of public health investment. Global disease and risk factor quantification improved dramatically in the early 1990s with the completion of the first Global Burden of Disease Study. For the first time, the comparative importance of over 100 diseases and injuries, and ten major risk factors, for global and regional health status could be assessed using a common metric (Disability-Adjusted Life Years) which simultaneously accounted for both premature mortality and the prevalence, duration and severity of the non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. As a consequence, mental health conditions and injuries, for which non-fatal outcomes are of particular significance, were identified as being among the leading causes of disease/injury burden worldwide, with clear implications for policy, particularly prevention. A major achievement of the Study was the complete global descriptive epidemiology, including incidence, prevalence and mortality, by age, sex and Region, of over 100 diseases and injuries. National applications, further methodological research and an increase in data availability have led to improved national, regional and global estimates for 2000, but substantial uncertainty around the disease burden caused by major conditions, including, HIV, remains. The rapid implementation of cost-effective data collection systems in developing countries is a key priority if global public policy to promote health is to be more effectively informed.

E-Government, targeting and data profiling: Policy and ethical issues of differential treatment

Networked information and communication technologies are rapidly advancing the capacities of governments to target and separately manage specific sub-populations, groups and individuals. Targeting uses data profiling to calculate the differential probabilities of outcomes associated with various personal characteristics. This knowledge is used to classify and sort people for differentiated levels of treatment. Targeting is often used to efficiently and effectively target government resources to the most disadvantaged. Although having many benefits, targeting raises several policy and ethical issues. This paper discusses these issues and the policy responses governments may take to maximise the benefits of targeting while ameliorating the negative aspects.

Predicting functional capacity outcome 12 months after hospitalized injury

Background: There is a recognized need to move from mortality to morbidity outcome predictions following traumatic injury. However, there are few morbidity outcome prediction scoring methods and these fail to incorporate important comorbidities or cofactors. This study aims to develop and evaluate a method that includes such variables. Methods: This was a consecutive case series registered in the Queensland Trauma Registry that consented to a prospective 12-month telephone conducted follow-up study. A multivariable statistical model was developed relating Trauma Registry data to trichotomized 12-month post-injury outcome (categories: no limitations, minor limitations and major limitations). Cross-validation techniques using successive single hold-out samples were then conducted to evaluate the model's predictive capabilities. Results: In total, 619 participated, with 337 (54%) experiencing no limitations, 101 (16%) experiencing minor limitations and 181 (29%) experiencing major limitations 12 months after injury. The final parsimonious multivariable statistical model included whether the injury was in the lower extremity body region, injury severity, age, length of hospital stay, pulse at admission and whether the participant was admitted to an intensive care unit. This model explained 21% of the variability in post-injury outcome. Predictively, 64% of those with no limitations, 18% of those with minor limitations and 37% of those with major limitations were correctly identified. Conclusion: Although carefully developed, this statistical model lacks the predictive power necessary for its use as a basis of a useful prognostic tool. Further research is required to identify variables other than those routinely used in the Trauma Registry to develop a model with the necessary predictive utility.

Acute alcohol consumption and mechanism of injury

Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine whether injury mechanism among injured patients is differentially distributed as a function of acute alcohol consumption (quantity, type, and drinking setting). Method: A cross-sectional study was conducted between October 2000 and October 2001 in the Gold Coast Hospital Emergency Department, Queensland, Australia. Data were collected quarterly over a 12-month period. Every injured patient who presented to the emergency department during the study period for treatment of an injury sustained less than 24 hours prior to presentation was approached for interview. The final sample comprised 593 injured patients (males = 377). Three measures of alcohol consumption in the 6 hours prior to injury were obtained from self-report: quantity, beverage type, and drinking setting. The main outcome measure was mechanism of injury which was categorized into six groups: road traffic crash (RTC), being hit by or against something, fall, cut/piercing, overdose/poisoning, and miscellaneous. Injury intent was also measured (intentional vs unintentional). Results: After controlling for relevant confounding variables, neither quantity nor type of alcohol was significantly associated with injury mechanism. However, drinking setting (i.e., licensed premise) was significantly associated with increased odds of sustaining an intentional versus unintentional injury (odds ratio [OR] = 2.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.4-5.6); injury through being hit by/against something versus other injury types (OR = 2.59, 95% CI = 1.4-4.9); and reduced odds of sustaining an injury through RTC versus non-RTC (OR = 0.02, 95% CI = 0.004-0.9), compared with not drinking alcohol prior to injury. Conclusions: No previous analytical studies have examined the relationship between injury mechanism and acute alcohol consumption (quantity, type, and setting) across all types of injury and all injury severities while controlling for potentially important confounders (demographic and situational confounders, risk-taking behavior, substance use, and usual drinking patterns). These data suggest that among injured patients, mechanism of injury is not differentially distributed as a function of quantity or type of acute alcohol consumption but may be differentially distributed as a function of drinking setting (i.e., RTC, intentional injury, being hit). Therefore, prevention strategies that focus primarily on the quantity and type of alcohol consumed should be directed generically across injury mechanisms and not limited to particular cause of injury campaigns.

Prognostic indicators for open globe injury

Background: The purpose of the study is to identify factors predictive of outcome after open globe injury in 273 patients admitted to the Royal Brisbane Hospital, Queensland, Australia between 1992 and 2003. Methods: Data were collected retrospectively regarding demographic and geographical factors, injury circumstances, initial visual acuity (VA), injury parameters, details of initial and subsequent surgery, final best corrected VA and complications. Multivariate analysis using binary logistic regression was utilized to identify which factors were related to outcome. Results: 83% of patients were male, with a mean age of 38.3 years. The mean duration of follow up was 16.6 months and 58% of patients (135 of 231) achieved an overall improvement in their vision. Forty-one cases (15%) were enucleated, with half of these cases performed primarily. The prognostic factors indicating the likelihood of a VA of counting fingers or worse were poor initial VA, a large laceration > 10 mm and the presence of a relative afferent pupil defect. Rural patients had a significantly worse final VA than city dwellers and had higher rates of endophthalmitis and enucleation. Conclusions: Assessment of prognostic factors at the time of presentation of an open globe injury enables realistic expectations of final visual outcome by the doctor and the patient. In order to improve outcomes in patients from rural areas, access to specialized eye services need to be upgraded.

Email-facilitated qualitative interviews with traumatic brain injury survivors: A new and accessible method

Primary objective: To trial the method of email-facilitated qualitative interviewing with people with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Research design: Qualitative semi-structured email-facilitated interviews. Procedures: Nineteen people (17 severe diagnosis) with a TBI participated in email interviews. Main outcomes and results: Findings indicate that this method facilitates the participation of people with TBI in qualitative interviews. Advantages include increased time for reflection, composing answers and greater control of the interview setting. In addition, the data indicates that people with a TBI are capable of greater insight, reflection and humour than indicated by previous research. Conclusion: Findings indicate that new technologies may advance data collection methods for people with cognitive-linguistic impairments who face participation barriers in face-to-face interviews.

Rapid Atrophy of the Lumbar Multifidus Follows Experimental Disc or Nerve Root Injury.

Study Design. Experimental study of muscle changes after lumbar spinal injury. Objectives. To investigate effects of intervertebral disc and nerve root lesions on cross-sectional area, histology and chemistry of porcine lumbar multifidus. Summary of Background Data. The multifidus cross-sectional area is reduced in acute and chronic low back pain. Although chronic changes are widespread, acute changes at 1 segment are identified within days of injury. It is uncertain whether changes precede or follow injury, or what is the mechanism. Methods. The multifidus cross-sectional area was measured in 21 pigs from L1 to S1 with ultrasound before and 3 or 6 days after lesions: incision into L3 - L4 disc, medial branch transection of the L3 dorsal ramus, and a sham procedure. Samples from L3 to L5 were studied histologically and chemically. Results. The multifidus cross-sectional area was reduced at L4 ipsilateral to disc lesion but at L4 - L6 after nerve lesion. There was no change after sham or on the opposite side. Water and lactate were reduced bilaterally after disc lesion and ipsilateral to nerve lesion. Histology revealed enlargement of adipocytes and clustering of myofibers at multiple levels after disc and nerve lesions. Conclusions. These data resolve the controversy that the multifidus cross-sectional area reduces rapidly after lumbar injury. Changes after disc lesion affect 1 level with a different distribution to denervation. Such changes may be due to disuse following reflex inhibitory mechanisms.

Tackling the burden of injury in Australasia: developing a binational trauma registry

Existing trauma registries in Australia and New Zealand play an important role in monitoring the management of injured patients. Over the past decade, such monitoring has been translated into changes in clinical processes and practices. Monitoring and changes have been ad hoc, as there are currently no Australasian benchmarks for optimal injury management. A binational trauma registry is urgently needed to benchmark injury management to improve outcomes for injured patients.