Flexibility in Airline Business Models with Core Competence as an Indicator.

The airline industry is often unstable and unpredictable forcing airlines to restructure and create flexible strategies that can respond to external operating environmental changes. In turbulent and competitive environments, firms with higher flexibility perform better and the value of these flexibilities depends on factors of uncertainty in the competitive environment. A model is sought for and arrived at, that shows how an airline business model will function in an uncertain environment with the least reduction in business performance over time. An analysis of the business model flexibility of 17 Airlines from Asia, Europe and Oceania, that is done with core competence as the indicator reveals a picture of inconsistencies in the core competence strategy of certain airlines and the corresponding reduction in business performance. The performance variations are explained from a service oriented core competence strategy employed by airlines that ultimately enables them in having a flexible business model that not only increases business performance but also helps in reducing the uncertainties in the internal and external operating environments.

Turbulence models of gravitational clustering.

Large-scale structure formation can be modeled as a nonlinear process that transfers energy from the largest scales to successively smaller scales until it is dissipated, in analogy with Kolmogorov’s cascade model of incompressible turbulence. However, cosmic turbulence is very compressible, and vorticity plays a secondary role in it. The simplest model of cosmic turbulence is the adhesion model, which can be studied perturbatively or adapting to it Kolmogorov’s non-perturbative approach to incompressible turbulence. This approach leads to observationally testable predictions, e.g., to the power-law exponent of the matter density two-point correlation function.

Oscillatory genetic circuits: new designs and mathematical models

Introduction and motivation: A wide variety of organisms have developed in-ternal biomolecular clocks in order to adapt to cyclic changes of the environment. Clock operation involves genetic networks. These genetic networks have to be mod¬eled in order to understand the underlying mechanism of oscillations and to design new synthetic cellular clocks. This doctoral thesis has resulted in two contributions to the fields of genetic clocks and systems and synthetic biology, generally. The first contribution is a new genetic circuit model that exhibits an oscillatory behav¬ior through catalytic RNA molecules. The second and major contribution is a new genetic circuit model demonstrating that a repressor molecule acting on the positive feedback of a self-activating gene produces reliable oscillations. First contribution: A new model of a synthetic genetic oscillator based on a typical two-gene motif with one positive and one negative feedback loop is pre¬sented. The originality is that the repressor is a catalytic RNA molecule rather than a protein or a non-catalytic RNA molecule. This catalytic RNA is a ribozyme that acts post-transcriptionally by binding to and cleaving target mRNA molecules. This genetic clock involves just two genes, a mRNA and an activator protein, apart from the ribozyme. Parameter values that produce a circadian period in both determin¬istic and stochastic simulations have been chosen as an example of clock operation. The effects of the stochastic fluctuations are quantified by a period histogram and autocorrelation function. The conclusion is that catalytic RNA molecules can act as repressor proteins and simplify the design of genetic oscillators. Second and major contribution: It is demonstrated that a self-activating gene in conjunction with a simple negative interaction can easily produce robust matically validated. This model is comprised of two clearly distinct parts. The first is a positive feedback created by a protein that binds to the promoter of its own gene and activates the transcription. The second is a negative interaction in which a repressor molecule prevents this protein from binding to its promoter. A stochastic study shows that the system is robust to noise. A deterministic study identifies that the oscillator dynamics are mainly driven by two types of biomolecules: the protein, and the complex formed by the repressor and this protein. The main conclusion of this study is that a simple and usual negative interaction, such as degradation, se¬questration or inhibition, acting on the positive transcriptional feedback of a single gene is a sufficient condition to produce reliable oscillations. One gene is enough and the positive transcriptional feedback signal does not need to activate a second repressor gene. At the genetic level, this means that an explicit negative feedback loop is not necessary. Unlike many genetic oscillators, this model needs neither cooperative binding reactions nor the formation of protein multimers. Applications and future research directions: Recently, RNA molecules have been found to play many new catalytic roles. The first oscillatory genetic model proposed in this thesis uses ribozymes as repressor molecules. This could provide new synthetic biology design principles and a better understanding of cel¬lular clocks regulated by RNA molecules. The second genetic model proposed here involves only a repression acting on a self-activating gene and produces robust oscil¬lations. Unlike current two-gene oscillators, this model surprisingly does not require a second repressor gene. This result could help to clarify the design principles of cellular clocks and constitute a new efficient tool for engineering synthetic genetic oscillators. Possible follow-on research directions are: validate models in vivo and in vitro, research the potential of second model as a genetic memory, investigate new genetic oscillators regulated by non-coding RNAs and design a biosensor of positive feedbacks in genetic networks based on the operation of the second model Resumen Introduccion y motivacion: Una amplia variedad de organismos han desarro-llado relojes biomoleculares internos con el fin de adaptarse a los cambios ciclicos del entorno. El funcionamiento de estos relojes involucra redes geneticas. El mo delado de estas redes geneticas es esencial tanto para entender los mecanismos que producen las oscilaciones como para diseiiar nuevos circuitos sinteticos en celulas. Esta tesis doctoral ha dado lugar a dos contribuciones dentro de los campos de los circuitos geneticos en particular, y biologia de sistemas y sintetica en general. La primera contribucion es un nuevo modelo de circuito genetico que muestra un comportamiento oscilatorio usando moleculas de ARN cataliticas. La segunda y principal contribucion es un nuevo modelo de circuito genetico que demuestra que una molecula represora actuando sobre el lazo de un gen auto-activado produce oscilaciones robustas. Primera contribucion: Es un nuevo modelo de oscilador genetico sintetico basado en una tipica red genetica compuesta por dos genes con dos lazos de retroa-limentacion, uno positivo y otro negativo. La novedad de este modelo es que el represor es una molecula de ARN catalftica, en lugar de una protefna o una molecula de ARN no-catalitica. Este ARN catalitico es una ribozima que actua despues de la transcription genetica uniendose y cortando moleculas de ARN mensajero (ARNm). Este reloj genetico involucra solo dos genes, un ARNm y una proteina activadora, aparte de la ribozima. Como ejemplo de funcionamiento, se han escogido valores de los parametros que producen oscilaciones con periodo circadiano (24 horas) tanto en simulaciones deterministas como estocasticas. El efecto de las fluctuaciones es-tocasticas ha sido cuantificado mediante un histograma del periodo y la función de auto-correlacion. La conclusion es que las moleculas de ARN con propiedades cataliticas pueden jugar el misnio papel que las protemas represoras, y por lo tanto, simplificar el diseno de los osciladores geneticos. Segunda y principal contribucion: Es un nuevo modelo de oscilador genetico que demuestra que un gen auto-activado junto con una simple interaction negativa puede producir oscilaciones robustas. Este modelo ha sido estudiado y validado matematicamente. El modelo esta compuesto de dos partes bien diferenciadas. La primera parte es un lazo de retroalimentacion positiva creado por una proteina que se une al promotor de su propio gen activando la transcription. La segunda parte es una interaction negativa en la que una molecula represora evita la union de la proteina con el promotor. Un estudio estocastico muestra que el sistema es robusto al ruido. Un estudio determinista muestra que la dinamica del sistema es debida principalmente a dos tipos de biomoleculas: la proteina, y el complejo formado por el represor y esta proteina. La conclusion principal de este estudio es que una simple y usual interaction negativa, tal como una degradation, un secuestro o una inhibition, actuando sobre el lazo de retroalimentacion positiva de un solo gen es una condition suficiente para producir oscilaciones robustas. Un gen es suficiente y el lazo de retroalimentacion positiva no necesita activar a un segundo gen represor, tal y como ocurre en los relojes actuales con dos genes. Esto significa que a nivel genetico un lazo de retroalimentacion negativa no es necesario de forma explicita. Ademas, este modelo no necesita reacciones cooperativas ni la formation de multimeros proteicos, al contrario que en muchos osciladores geneticos. Aplicaciones y futuras lineas de investigacion: En los liltimos anos, se han descubierto muchas moleculas de ARN con capacidad catalitica. El primer modelo de oscilador genetico propuesto en esta tesis usa ribozimas como moleculas repre¬soras. Esto podria proporcionar nuevos principios de diseno en biologia sintetica y una mejor comprension de los relojes celulares regulados por moleculas de ARN. El segundo modelo de oscilador genetico propuesto aqui involucra solo una represion actuando sobre un gen auto-activado y produce oscilaciones robustas. Sorprendente-mente, un segundo gen represor no es necesario al contrario que en los bien conocidos osciladores con dos genes. Este resultado podria ayudar a clarificar los principios de diseno de los relojes celulares naturales y constituir una nueva y eficiente he-rramienta para crear osciladores geneticos sinteticos. Algunas de las futuras lineas de investigation abiertas tras esta tesis son: (1) la validation in vivo e in vitro de ambos modelos, (2) el estudio del potential del segundo modelo como circuito base para la construction de una memoria genetica, (3) el estudio de nuevos osciladores geneticos regulados por ARN no codificante y, por ultimo, (4) el rediseno del se¬gundo modelo de oscilador genetico para su uso como biosensor capaz de detectar genes auto-activados en redes geneticas.

Response threshold models, stochastic learning automata and ant colony optimization-based decentralized self-coordination algorithms for heterogeneous multi-tasks distribution in multi-robot systems

In recent decades, there has been an increasing interest in systems comprised of several autonomous mobile robots, and as a result, there has been a substantial amount of development in the eld of Articial Intelligence, especially in Robotics. There are several studies in the literature by some researchers from the scientic community that focus on the creation of intelligent machines and devices capable to imitate the functions and movements of living beings. Multi-Robot Systems (MRS) can often deal with tasks that are dicult, if not impossible, to be accomplished by a single robot. In the context of MRS, one of the main challenges is the need to control, coordinate and synchronize the operation of multiple robots to perform a specic task. This requires the development of new strategies and methods which allow us to obtain the desired system behavior in a formal and concise way. This PhD thesis aims to study the coordination of multi-robot systems, in particular, addresses the problem of the distribution of heterogeneous multi-tasks. The main interest in these systems is to understand how from simple rules inspired by the division of labor in social insects, a group of robots can perform tasks in an organized and coordinated way. We are mainly interested on truly distributed or decentralized solutions in which the robots themselves, autonomously and in an individual manner, select a particular task so that all tasks are optimally distributed. In general, to perform the multi-tasks distribution among a team of robots, they have to synchronize their actions and exchange information. Under this approach we can speak of multi-tasks selection instead of multi-tasks assignment, which means, that the agents or robots select the tasks instead of being assigned a task by a central controller. The key element in these algorithms is the estimation ix of the stimuli and the adaptive update of the thresholds. This means that each robot performs this estimate locally depending on the load or the number of pending tasks to be performed. In addition, it is very interesting the evaluation of the results in function in each approach, comparing the results obtained by the introducing noise in the number of pending loads, with the purpose of simulate the robot's error in estimating the real number of pending tasks. The main contribution of this thesis can be found in the approach based on self-organization and division of labor in social insects. An experimental scenario for the coordination problem among multiple robots, the robustness of the approaches and the generation of dynamic tasks have been presented and discussed. The particular issues studied are: Threshold models: It presents the experiments conducted to test the response threshold model with the objective to analyze the system performance index, for the problem of the distribution of heterogeneous multitasks in multi-robot systems; also has been introduced additive noise in the number of pending loads and has been generated dynamic tasks over time. Learning automata methods: It describes the experiments to test the learning automata-based probabilistic algorithms. The approach was tested to evaluate the system performance index with additive noise and with dynamic tasks generation for the same problem of the distribution of heterogeneous multi-tasks in multi-robot systems. Ant colony optimization: The goal of the experiments presented is to test the ant colony optimization-based deterministic algorithms, to achieve the distribution of heterogeneous multi-tasks in multi-robot systems. In the experiments performed, the system performance index is evaluated by introducing additive noise and dynamic tasks generation over time.

On the complexity of radiation models for PV energy production calculation

Several authors have analysed the changes of the probability density function of the solar radiation with different time resolutions. Some others have approached to study the significance of these changes when produced energy calculations are attempted. We have undertaken different transformations to four Spanish databases in order to clarify the interrelationship between radiation models and produced energy estimations. Our contribution is straightforward: the complexity of a solar radiation model needed for yearly energy calculations, is very low. Twelve values of monthly mean of solar radiation are enough to estimate energy with errors below 3%. Time resolutions better than hourly samples do not improve significantly the result of energy estimations.

Comparison of turbulence models for the computational fluid dynamics simulation of wind turbine wakes in the atmospheric boundary layer

An elliptic computational fluid dynamics wake model based on the actuator disk concept is used to simulate a wind turbine, approximated by a disk upon which a distribution of forces, defined as axial momentum sources, is applied on an incoming non-uniform shear flow. The rotor is supposed to be uniformly loaded with the exerted forces estimated as a function of the incident wind speed, thrust coefficient and rotor diameter. The model is assessed in terms of wind speed deficit and added turbulence intensity for different turbulence models and is validated from experimental measurements of the Sexbierum wind turbine experiment.

CFD modelling of the interaction between the Surface Boundary Layer and rotor wake. Comparison of results obtained with different turbulence models and mesh strategies

A simplified CFD wake model based on the actuator disk concept is used to simulate the wind turbine, represented by a disk upon which a distribution of forces, defined as axial momentum sources, are applied on the incoming non-uniform flow. The rotor is supposed to be uniformly loaded, with the exerted forces function of the incident wind speed, the thrust coefficient and the rotor diameter. The model is tested under different parameterizations of turbulence models and validated through experimental measurements downwind of a wind turbine in terms of wind speed deficit and turbulence intensity.

Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.

Structure of intermediate shocks in collisionsless anisotropic Hall-magnetohydrodynamics plasma models

The existence of discontinuities within the double-adiabatic Hall-magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model is discussed. These solutions are transitional layers where some of the plasma properties change from one equilibrium state to another. Under the assumption of traveling wave solutions with velocity C and propagation angle θ with respect to the ambient magnetic field, the Hall-MHD model reduces to a dynamical system and the waves are heteroclinic orbits joining two different fixed points. The analysis of the fixed points rules out the existence of rotational discontinuities. Simple considerations about the Hamiltonian nature of the system show that, unlike dissipative models, the intermediate shock waves are organized in branches in parameter space, i.e., they occur if a given relationship between θ and C is satisfied. Electron-polarized (ion-polarized) shock waves exhibit, in addition to a reversal of the magnetic field component tangential to the shock front, a maximum (minimum) of the magnetic field amplitude. The jumps of the magnetic field and the relative specific volume between the downstream and the upstream states as a function of the plasma properties are presented. The organization in parameter space of localized structures including in the model the influence of finite Larmor radius is discussed

Improving the management of water and nitrogen resources in cropping systems by using simulation models

Los modelos de simulación de cultivos permiten analizar varias combinaciones de laboreo-rotación y explorar escenarios de manejo. El modelo DSSAT fue evaluado bajo condiciones de secano en un experimento de campo de 16 años en la semiárida España central. Se evaluó el efecto del sistema de laboreo y las rotaciones basadas en cereales de invierno, en el rendimiento del cultivo y la calidad del suelo. Los modelos CERES y CROPGRO se utilizaron para simular el crecimiento y rendimiento del cultivo, mientras que el modelo DSSAT CENTURY se utilizó en las simulaciones de SOC y SN. Tanto las observaciones de campo como las simulaciones con CERES-Barley, mostraron que el rendimiento en grano de la cebada era mas bajo para el cereal continuo (BB) que para las rotaciones de veza (VB) y barbecho (FB) en ambos sistemas de laboreo. El modelo predijo más nitrógeno disponible en el laboreo convencional (CT) que en el no laboreo (NT) conduciendo a un mayor rendimiento en el CT. El SOC y el SN en la capa superficial del suelo, fueron mayores en NT que en CT, y disminuyeron con la profundidad en los valores tanto observados como simulados. Las mejores combinaciones para las condiciones de secano estudiadas fueron CT-VB y CT-FB, pero CT presentó menor contenido en SN y SOC que NT. El efecto beneficioso del NT en SOC y SN bajo condiciones Mediterráneas semiáridas puede ser identificado por observaciones de campo y por simulaciones de modelos de cultivos. La simulación del balance de agua en sistemas de cultivo es una herramienta útil para estudiar como el agua puede ser utilizado eficientemente. La comparación del balance de agua de DSSAT , con una simple aproximación “tipping bucket”, con el modelo WAVE más mecanicista, el cual integra la ecuación de Richard , es un potente método para valorar el funcionamiento del modelo. Los parámetros de suelo fueron calibrados usando el método de optimización global Simulated Annealing (SA). Un lisímetro continuo de pesada en suelo desnudo suministró los valores observados de drenaje y evapotranspiración (ET) mientras que el contenido de agua en el suelo (SW) fue suministrado por sensores de capacitancia. Ambos modelos funcionaron bien después de la optimización de los parámetros de suelo con SA, simulando el balance de agua en el suelo para el período de calibración. Para el período de validación, los modelos optimizados predijeron bien el contenido de agua en el suelo y la evaporación del suelo a lo largo del tiempo. Sin embargo, el drenaje fue predicho mejor con WAVE que con DSSAT, el cual presentó mayores errores en los valores acumulados. Esto podría ser debido a la naturaleza mecanicista de WAVE frente a la naturaleza más funcional de DSSAT. Los buenos resultados de WAVE indican que, después de la calibración, este puede ser utilizado como "benchmark" para otros modelos para periodos en los que no haya medidas de campo del drenaje. El funcionamiento de DSSAT-CENTURY en la simulación de SOC y N depende fuertemente del proceso de inicialización. Se propuso como método alternativo (Met.2) la inicialización de las fracciones de SOC a partir de medidas de mineralización aparente del suelo (Napmin). El Met.2 se comparó con el método de inicialización de Basso et al. (2011) (Met.1), aplicando ambos métodos a un experimento de campo de 4 años en un área en regadío de España central. Nmin y Napmin fueron sobreestimados con el Met.1, ya que la fracción estable obtenida (SOC3) en las capas superficiales del suelo fue más baja que con Met.2. El N lixiviado simulado fue similar en los dos métodos, con buenos resultados en los tratamientos de barbecho y cebada. El Met.1 subestimó el SOC en la capa superficial del suelo cuando se comparó con una serie observada de 12 años. El crecimiento y rendimiento del cultivo fueron adecuadamente simulados con ambos métodos, pero el N en la parte aérea de la planta y en el grano fueron sobreestimados con el Met.1. Los resultados variaron significativamente con las fracciones iniciales de SOC, resaltando la importancia del método de inicialización. El Met.2 ofrece una alternativa para la inicialización del modelo CENTURY, mejorando la simulación de procesos de N en el suelo. La continua emergencia de nuevas variedades de híbridos modernos de maíz limita la aplicación de modelos de simulación de cultivos, ya que estos nuevos híbridos necesitan ser calibrados en el campo para ser adecuados para su uso en los modelos. El desarrollo de relaciones basadas en la duración del ciclo, simplificaría los requerimientos de calibración facilitando la rápida incorporación de nuevos cultivares en DSSAT. Seis híbridos de maiz (FAO 300 hasta FAO 700) fueron cultivados en un experimento de campo de dos años en un área semiárida de regadío en España central. Los coeficientes genéticos fueron obtenidos secuencialmente, comenzando con los parámetros de desarrollo fenológico (P1, P2, P5 and PHINT), seguido de los parámetros de crecimiento del cultivo (G2 and G3). Se continuó el procedimiento hasta que la salida de las simulaciones estuvo en concordancia con las observaciones fenológicas de campo. Después de la calibración, los parámetros simulados se ajustaron bien a los parámetros observados, con bajos RMSE en todos los casos. Los P1 y P5 calibrados, incrementaron con la duración del ciclo. P1 fue una función lineal del tiempo térmico (TT) desde emergencia hasta floración y P5 estuvo linealmente relacionada con el TT desde floración a madurez. No hubo diferencias significativas en PHINT entre híbridos de FAO-500 a 700 , ya que tuvieron un número de hojas similar. Como los coeficientes fenológicos estuvieron directamente relacionados con la duración del ciclo, sería posible desarrollar rangos y correlaciones que permitan estimar dichos coeficientes a partir de la clasificación del ciclo. ABSTRACT Crop simulation models allow analyzing various tillage-rotation combinations and exploring management scenarios. DSSAT model was tested under rainfed conditions in a 16-year field experiment in semiarid central Spain. The effect of tillage system and winter cereal-based rotations on the crop yield and soil quality was evaluated. The CERES and CROPGRO models were used to simulate crop growth and yield, while the DSSAT CENTURY was used in the SOC and SN simulations. Both field observations and CERES-Barley simulations, showed that barley grain yield was lower for continuous cereal (BB) than for vetch (VB) and fallow (FB) rotations for both tillage systems. The model predicted higher nitrogen availability in the conventional tillage (CT) than in the no tillage (NT) leading to a higher yield in the CT. The SOC and SN in the top layer, were higher in NT than in CT, and decreased with depth in both simulated and observed values. The best combinations for the dry land conditions studied were CT-VB and CT-FB, but CT presented lower SN and SOC content than NT. The beneficial effect of NT on SOC and SN under semiarid Mediterranean conditions can be identified by field observations and by crop model simulations. The simulation of the water balance in cropping systems is a useful tool to study how water can be used efficiently. The comparison of DSSAT soil water balance, with a simpler “tipping bucket” approach, with the more mechanistic WAVE model, which integrates Richard’s equation, is a powerful method to assess model performance. The soil parameters were calibrated by using the Simulated Annealing (SA) global optimizing method. A continuous weighing lysimeter in a bare fallow provided the observed values of drainage and evapotranspiration (ET) while soil water content (SW) was supplied by capacitance sensors. Both models performed well after optimizing soil parameters with SA, simulating the soil water balance components for the calibrated period. For the validation period, the optimized models predicted well soil water content and soil evaporation over time. However, drainage was predicted better by WAVE than by DSSAT, which presented larger errors in the cumulative values. That could be due to the mechanistic nature of WAVE against the more functional nature of DSSAT. The good results from WAVE indicate that, after calibration, it could be used as benchmark for other models for periods when no drainage field measurements are available. The performance of DSSAT-CENTURY when simulating SOC and N strongly depends on the initialization process. Initialization of the SOC pools from apparent soil N mineralization (Napmin) measurements was proposed as alternative method (Met.2). Method 2 was compared to the Basso et al. (2011) initialization method (Met.1), by applying both methods to a 4-year field experiment in a irrigated area of central Spain. Nmin and Napmin were overestimated by Met.1, since the obtained stable pool (SOC3) in the upper layers was lower than from Met.2. Simulated N leaching was similar for both methods, with good results in fallow and barley treatments. Method 1 underestimated topsoil SOC when compared with a 12-year observed serial. Crop growth and yield were properly simulated by both methods, but N in shoots and grain were overestimated by Met.1. Results varied significantly with the initial SOC pools, highlighting the importance of the initialization procedure. Method 2 offers an alternative to initialize the CENTURY model, enhancing the simulation of soil N processes. The continuous emergence of new varieties of modern maize hybrids limits the application of crop simulation models, since these new hybrids should be calibrated in the field to be suitable for model use. The development of relationships based on the cycle duration, would simplify the calibration requirements facilitating the rapid incorporation of new cultivars into DSSAT. Six maize hybrids (FAO 300 through FAO 700) were grown in a 2-year field experiment in a semiarid irrigated area of central Spain. Genetic coefficients were obtained sequentially, starting with the phenological development parameters (P1, P2, P5 and PHINT), followed by the crop growth parameters (G2 and G3). The procedure was continued until the simulated outputs were in good agreement with the field phenological observations. After calibration, simulated parameters matched observed parameters well, with low RMSE in most cases. The calibrated P1 and P5 increased with the duration of the cycle. P1 was a linear function of the thermal time (TT) from emergence to silking and P5 was linearly related with the TT from silking to maturity . There were no significant differences in PHINT between hybrids from FAO-500 to 700 , as they had similar leaf number. Since phenological coefficients were directly related with the cycle duration, it would be possible to develop ranges and correlations which allow to estimate such coefficients from the cycle classification.

Radar track segmentation with cubic splines for collision risk models in high density terminal areas

This paper presents a method to segment airplane radar tracks in high density terminal areas where the air traffic follows trajectories with several changes in heading, speed and altitude. The radar tracks are modelled with different types of segments, straight lines, cubic spline function and shape preserving cubic function. The longitudinal, lateral and vertical deviations are calculated for terminal manoeuvring area scenarios. The most promising model of the radar tracks resulted from a mixed interpolation using straight lines for linear segments and spline cubic functions for curved segments. A sensitivity analysis is used to optimise the size of the window for the segmentation process.

Autonomous classification models in ubiquitous environments

Stream-mining approach is defined as a set of cutting-edge techniques designed to process streams of data in real time, in order to extract knowledge. In the particular case of classification, stream-mining has to adapt its behaviour to the volatile underlying data distributions, what has been called concept drift. Moreover, it is important to note that concept drift may lead to situations where predictive models become invalid and have therefore to be updated to represent the actual concepts that data poses. In this context, there is a specific type of concept drift, known as recurrent concept drift, where the concepts represented by data have already appeared in the past. In those cases the learning process could be saved or at least minimized by applying a previously trained model. This could be extremely useful in ubiquitous environments that are characterized by the existence of resource constrained devices. To deal with the aforementioned scenario, meta-models can be used in the process of enhancing the drift detection mechanisms used by data stream algorithms, by representing and predicting when the change will occur. There are some real-world situations where a concept reappears, as in the case of intrusion detection systems (IDS), where the same incidents or an adaptation of them usually reappear over time. In these environments the early prediction of drift by means of a better knowledge of past models can help to anticipate to the change, thus improving efficiency of the model regarding the training instances needed. By means of using meta-models as a recurrent drift detection mechanism, the ability to share concepts representations among different data mining processes is open. That kind of exchanges could improve the accuracy of the resultant local model as such model may benefit from patterns similar to the local concept that were observed in other scenarios, but not yet locally. This would also improve the efficiency of training instances used during the classification process, as long as the exchange of models would aid in the application of already trained recurrent models, that have been previously seen by any of the collaborative devices. Which it is to say that the scope of recurrence detection and representation is broaden. In fact the detection, representation and exchange of concept drift patterns would be extremely useful for the law enforcement activities fighting against cyber crime. Being the information exchange one of the main pillars of cooperation, national units would benefit from the experience and knowledge gained by third parties. Moreover, in the specific scope of critical infrastructures protection it is crucial to count with information exchange mechanisms, both from a strategical and technical scope. The exchange of concept drift detection schemes in cyber security environments would aid in the process of preventing, detecting and effectively responding to threads in cyber space. Furthermore, as a complement of meta-models, a mechanism to assess the similarity between classification models is also needed when dealing with recurrent concepts. In this context, when reusing a previously trained model a rough comparison between concepts is usually made, applying boolean logic. The introduction of fuzzy logic comparisons between models could lead to a better efficient reuse of previously seen concepts, by applying not just equal models, but also similar ones. This work faces the aforementioned open issues by means of: the MMPRec system, that integrates a meta-model mechanism and a fuzzy similarity function; a collaborative environment to share meta-models between different devices; a recurrent drift generator that allows to test the usefulness of recurrent drift systems, as it is the case of MMPRec. Moreover, this thesis presents an experimental validation of the proposed contributions using synthetic and real datasets.

A study of the mechanical behaviour of the human aortic artery by means of non-linear finite element models

En la presente tesis desarrollamos una estrategia para la simulación numérica del comportamiento mecánico de la aorta humana usando modelos de elementos finitos no lineales. Prestamos especial atención a tres aspectos claves relacionados con la biomecánica de los tejidos blandos. Primero, el análisis del comportamiento anisótropo característico de los tejidos blandos debido a las familias de fibras de colágeno. Segundo, el análisis del ablandamiento presentado por los vasos sanguíneos cuando estos soportan cargas fuera del rango de funcionamiento fisiológico. Y finalmente, la inclusión de las tensiones residuales en las simulaciones en concordancia con el experimento de apertura de ángulo. El análisis del daño se aborda mediante dos aproximaciones diferentes. En la primera aproximación se presenta una formulación de daño local con regularización. Esta formulación tiene dos ingredientes principales. Por una parte, usa los principios de la teoría de la fisura difusa para garantizar la objetividad de los resultados con diferentes mallas. Por otra parte, usa el modelo bidimensional de Hodge-Petruska para describir el comportamiento mesoscópico de los fibriles. Partiendo de este modelo mesoscópico, las propiedades macroscópicas de las fibras de colágeno son obtenidas a través de un proceso de homogenización. En la segunda aproximación se presenta un modelo de daño no-local enriquecido con el gradiente de la variable de daño. El modelo se construye a partir del enriquecimiento de la función de energía con un término que contiene el gradiente material de la variable de daño no-local. La inclusión de este término asegura una regularización implícita de la implementación por elementos finitos, dando lugar a resultados de las simulaciones que no dependen de la malla. La aplicabilidad de este último modelo a problemas de biomecánica se estudia por medio de una simulación de un procedimiento quirúrgico típico conocido como angioplastia de balón. In the present thesis we develop a framework for the numerical simulation of the mechanical behaviour of the human aorta using non-linear finite element models. Special attention is paid to three key aspects related to the biomechanics of soft tissues. First, the modelling of the characteristic anisotropic behaviour of the softue due to the collagen fibre families. Secondly, the modelling of damage-related softening that blood vessels exhibit when subjected to loads beyond their physiological range. And finally, the inclusion of the residual stresses in the simulations in accordance with the opening-angle experiment The modelling of damage is addressed with two major and different approaches. In the first approach a continuum local damage formulation with regularisation is presented. This formulation has two principal ingredients. On the one hand, it makes use of the principles of the smeared crack theory to avoid the mesh size dependence of the structural response in softening. On the other hand, it uses a Hodge-Petruska bidimensional model to describe the fibrils as staggered arrays of tropocollagen molecules, and from this mesoscopic model the macroscopic material properties of the collagen fibres are obtained using an homogenisation process. In the second approach a non-local gradient-enhanced damage formulation is introduced. The model is built around the enhancement of the free energy function by means of a term that contains the referential gradient of the non-local damage variable. The inclusion of this term ensures an implicit regularisation of the finite element implementation, yielding mesh-objective results of the simulations. The applicability of the later model to biomechanically-related problems is studied by means of the simulation of a typical surgical procedure, namely, the balloon angioplasty.

Isoform-specific effects of human apolipoprotein E on brain function revealed in ApoE knockout mice: Increased susceptibility of females

Apolipoprotein E (apoE) mediates the redistribution of lipids among cells and is expressed at highest levels in brain and liver. Human apoE exists in three major isoforms encoded by distinct alleles (ɛ2, ɛ3, and ɛ4). Compared with APOE ɛ2 and ɛ3, APOE ɛ4 increases the risk of cognitive impairments, lowers the age of onset of Alzheimer’s disease (AD), and decreases the response to AD treatments. Besides age, inheritance of the APOE ɛ4 allele is the most important known risk factor for the development of sporadic AD, the most common form of this illness. Although numerous hypotheses have been advanced, it remains unclear how APOE ɛ4 might affect cognition and increase AD risk. To assess the effects of distinct human apoE isoforms on the brain, we have used the neuron-specific enolase (NSE) promoter to express human apoE3 or apoE4 at similar levels in neurons of transgenic mice lacking endogenous mouse apoE. Compared with NSE-apoE3 mice and wild-type controls, NSE-apoE4 mice showed impairments in learning a water maze task and in vertical exploratory behavior that increased with age and were seen primarily in females. These findings demonstrate that human apoE isoforms have differential effects on brain function in vivo and that the susceptibility to apoE4-induced deficits is critically influenced by age and gender. These results could be pertinent to cognitive impairments observed in human APOE ɛ4 carriers. NSE-apoE mice and similar models may facilitate the preclinical assessment of treatments for apoE-related cognitive deficits.

Conservation of fibroblast growth factor function in lens regeneration

In urodele amphibians, lens induction during development and regeneration occurs through different pathways. During development, the lens is induced from the mutual interaction of the ectoderm and the optic vesicle, whereas after lentectomy the lens is regenerated through the transdifferentiation of the iris-pigmented epithelial cells. Given the known role of fibroblast growth factors (FGFs) during lens development, we examined whether or not the expression and the effects of exogenous FGF during urodele lens regeneration were conserved. In this paper, we describe expression of FGF-1 and its receptors, FGFR-2 (KGFR and bek variants) and FGFR-3, in newts during lens regeneration. Expression of these genes was readily observed in the dedifferentiating pigmented epithelial cells, and the levels of expression were high in the lens epithelium and the differentiating fibers and lower in the retina. These patterns of expression implied involvement of FGFs in lens regeneration. To further elucidate this function, we examined the effects of exogenous FGF-1 and FGF-4 during lens regeneration. FGF-1 or FGF-4 treatment in lentectomized eyes resulted in the induction of abnormalities reminiscent to the ones induced during lens development in transgenic mice. Effects included transformation of epithelial cells to fiber cells, double lens regeneration, and lenses with abnormal polarity. These results establish that FGF molecules are key factors in fiber differentiation, polarity, and morphogenesis of the lens during regeneration even though the regenerating lens is induced by a different mechanism than in lens development. In this sense, FGF function in lens regeneration and development should be regarded as conserved. Such conservation should help elucidate the mechanisms of lens regeneration in urodeles and its absence in higher vertebrates.