Severity of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at intersections: A Bayesian hierarchical analysis

Most crash severity studies ignored severity correlations between driver-vehicle units involved in the same crashes. Models without accounting for these within-crash correlations will result in biased estimates in the factor effects. This study developed a Bayesian hierarchical binomial logistic model to identify the significant factors affecting the severity level of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at signalized intersections. Crash data in Singapore were employed to calibrate the model. Model fitness assessment and comparison using Intra-class Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) ensured the suitability of introducing the crash-level random effects. Crashes occurring in peak time, in good street lighting condition, involving pedestrian injuries are associated with a lower severity, while those in night time, at T/Y type intersections, on right-most lane, and installed with red light camera have larger odds of being severe. Moreover, heavy vehicles have a better resistance on severe crash, while crashes involving two-wheel vehicles, young or aged drivers, and the involvement of offending party are more likely to result in severe injuries.

Applying Bayesian hierarchical models to examine motorcycle crashes at signalized intersections

Motorcycles are overrepresented in road traffic crashes and particularly vulnerable at signalized intersections. The objective of this study is to identify causal factors affecting the motorcycle crashes at both four-legged and T signalized intersections. Treating the data in time-series cross-section panels, this study explores different Hierarchical Poisson models and found that the model allowing autoregressive lag 1 dependent specification in the error term is the most suitable. Results show that the number of lanes at the four-legged signalized intersections significantly increases motorcycle crashes largely because of the higher exposure resulting from higher motorcycle accumulation at the stop line. Furthermore, the presence of a wide median and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at major roadways of four-legged intersections exacerbate this potential hazard. For T signalized intersections, the presence of exclusive right-turn lane at both major and minor roadways and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at major roadways of T intersections increases motorcycle crashes. Motorcycle crashes increase on high-speed roadways because they are more vulnerable and less likely to react in time during conflicts. The presence of red light cameras reduces motorcycle crashes significantly for both four-legged and T intersections. With the red-light camera, motorcycles are less exposed to conflicts because it is observed that they are more disciplined in queuing at the stop line and less likely to jump start at the start of green.

Bayesian hierarchical analysis on crash prediction models

Traditional crash prediction models, such as generalized linear regression models, are incapable of taking into account the multilevel data structure, which extensively exists in crash data. Disregarding the possible within-group correlations can lead to the production of models giving unreliable and biased estimates of unknowns. This study innovatively proposes a -level hierarchy, viz. (Geographic region level – Traffic site level – Traffic crash level – Driver-vehicle unit level – Vehicle-occupant level) Time level, to establish a general form of multilevel data structure in traffic safety analysis. To properly model the potential cross-group heterogeneity due to the multilevel data structure, a framework of Bayesian hierarchical models that explicitly specify multilevel structure and correctly yield parameter estimates is introduced and recommended. The proposed method is illustrated in an individual-severity analysis of intersection crashes using the Singapore crash records. This study proved the importance of accounting for the within-group correlations and demonstrated the flexibilities and effectiveness of the Bayesian hierarchical method in modeling multilevel structure of traffic crash data.

Perceived collision risks in anchorages : a hierarchical ordered probit analysis

Navigational collisions are a major safety concern in many seaports. Despite the recent advances in port navigational safety research, little is known about harbor pilot’s perception of collision risks in anchorages. This study attempts to model such risks by employing a hierarchical ordered probit model, which is calibrated by using data collected through a risk perception survey conducted on Singapore port pilots. The hierarchical model is found to be useful to account for correlations in risks perceived by individual pilots. Results show higher perceived risks in anchorages attached to intersection, local and international fairway; becoming more critical at night. Lesser risks are perceived in anchorages featuring shoreline in boundary, higher water depth, lower density of stationary ships, cardinal marks and isolated danger marks. Pilotage experience shows a negative effect on perceived risks. This study indicates that hierarchical modeling would be useful for treating correlations in navigational safety data.

Use of hierarchical cluster analysis to assess the representativeness of a baseline groundwater quality monitoring network: comparison of New Zealand’s national and regional groundwater monitoring programs

Baseline monitoring of groundwater quality aims to characterize the ambient condition of the resource and identify spatial or temporal trends. Sites comprising any baseline monitoring network must be selected to provide a representative perspective of groundwater quality across the aquifer(s) of interest. Hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) has been used as a means of assessing the representativeness of a groundwater quality monitoring network, using example datasets from New Zealand. HCA allows New Zealand's national and regional monitoring networks to be compared in terms of the number of water-quality categories identified in each network, the hydrochemistry at the centroids of these water-quality categories, the proportions of monitoring sites assigned to each water-quality category, and the range of concentrations for each analyte within each water-quality category. Through the HCA approach, the National Groundwater Monitoring Programme (117 sites) is shown to provide a highly representative perspective of groundwater quality across New Zealand, relative to the amalgamated regional monitoring networks operated by 15 different regional authorities (680 sites have sufficient data for inclusion in HCA). This methodology can be applied to evaluate the representativeness of any subset of monitoring sites taken from a larger network.

Climates of Hate: Media and State Inspired Victimisation of Muslims in Canada and Australia since 9/11

This article represents a preliminary comparative exploration of anti-Muslim racism and violence in Australia and Canada, especially since September 11. We contextualise the anti-Muslim vilification and victimisation within parallel – yet still distinct – political climates that bestow permission to hate. That is, negative media portrayals, together with discriminatory rhetoric, policy and practices at the level of the state create an enabling environment that signals the legitimacy of public hostility toward the Muslim communities. We conclude by pointing toward the need for more extensive empirical exploration of the phenomenon in both countries.

The competing-complementarity engagement of news media with online social media

The rapid growth of online social media networks like Facebook and Twitter is strongly influencing news media to engage with such networks for generating newsworthy content, accessing mass audiences for news consumption and using the platforms for news distribution. While both media’s complement each other as sources of news and information, they also compete against each other as news repositories and are observed vying for the same audiences. We call this phenomenon the competing-complementarity (C-C) engagement. To investigate the C-C relationship we use Fidler’s “mediamorphosis” concept to explain the metamorphosis of news media in the online domain. We make two contributions to Fidler’s concept by offering an additional principle “mass user migration” to address the characteristics of metamorphosis and an additional driver “transcended social engagement” to show the force that propels it. Besides, we also propose four accelerators that influence metamorphosis. Theoretical analysis of news media’s metamorphosis indicates its affinity to online social media. We apply niche and gratification theories to explain complementarity, and displacement effects on media consumption habits to trace competition between both media’s.

Evaluation of fibroin-based scaffolds for ocular tissue reconstruction

The epithelium of the corneolimbus contains stem cells for regenerating the corneal epithelium. Diseases and injuries affecting the limbus can lead to a condition known as limbal stem cell deficiency (LSCD), which results in loss of the corneal epithelium, and subsequent chronic inflammation and scarring of the ocular surface. Advances in the treatment of LSCD have been achieved through use of cultured human limbal epithelial (HLE) grafts to restore epithelial stem cells of the ocular surface. These epithelial grafts are usually produced by the ex vivo expansion of HLE cells on human donor amniotic membrane (AM), but this is not without limitations. Although AM is the most widely accepted substratum for HLE transplantation, donor variation, risk of disease transfer, and rising costs have led to the search for alternative biomaterials to improve the surgical outcome of LSCD. Recent studies have demonstrated that Bombyx mori silk fibroin (hereafter referred to as fibroin) membranes support the growth of primary HLE cells, and thus this thesis aims to explore the possibility of using fibroin as a biomaterial for ocular surface reconstruction. Optimistically, the grafted sheets of cultured epithelium would provide a replenishing source of epithelial progenitor cells for maintaining the corneal epithelium, however, the HLE cells lose their progenitor cell characteristics once removed from their niche. More severe ocular surface injuries, which result in stromal scarring, damage the epithelial stem cell niche, which subsequently leads to poor corneal re-epithelialisation post-grafting. An ideal solution to repairing the corneal limbus would therefore be to grow and transplant HLE cells on a biomaterial that also provides a means for replacing underlying stromal cells required to better simulate the normal stem cell niche. The recent discovery of limbal mesenchymal stromal cells (L-MSC) provides a possibility for stromal repair and regeneration, and therefore, this thesis presents the use of fibroin as a possible biomaterial to support a three dimensional tissue engineered corneolimbus with both an HLE and underlying L-MSC layer. Investigation into optimal scaffold design is necessary, including adequate separation of epithelial and stromal layers, as well as direct cell-cell contact. Firstly, the attachment, morphology and phenotype of HLE cells grown on fibroin were directly compared to that observed on donor AM, the current clinical standard substrate for HLE transplantation. The production, transparency, and permeability of fibroin membranes were also evaluated in this part of the study. Results revealed that fibroin membranes could be routinely produced using a custom-made film casting table and were found to be transparent and permeable. Attachment of HLE cells to fibroin after 4 hours in serum-free medium was similar to that supported by tissue culture plastic but approximately 6-fold less than that observed on AM. While HLE cultured on AM displayed superior stratification, epithelia constructed from HLE on fibroin maintained evidence of corneal phenotype (cytokeratin pair 3/12 expression; CK3/12) and displayed a comparable number and distribution of ÄNp63+ progenitor cells to that seen in cultures grown on AM. These results confirm the suitability of membranes constructed from silk fibroin as a possible substrate for HLE cultivation. One of the most important aspects in corneolimbal tissue engineering is to consider the reconstruction of the limbal stem cell niche to help form the natural limbus in situ. MSC with similar properties to bone marrow derived-MSC (BM-MSC) have recently been grown from the limbus of the human cornea. This thesis evaluated methods for culturing L-MSC and limbal keratocytes using various serum-free media. The phenotype of resulting cultures was examined using photography, flow cytometry for CD34 (keratocyte marker), CD45 (bone marrow-derived cell marker), CD73, CD90, CD105 (collectively MSC markers), CD141 (epithelial/vascular endothelial marker), and CD271 (neuronal marker), immunocytochemistry (alpha-smooth muscle actin; á-sma), differentiation assays (osteogenesis, adipogenesis and chrondrogenesis), and co-culture experiments with HLE cells. While all techniques supported to varying degrees establishment of keratocyte and L-MSC cultures, sustained growth and serial propagation was only achieved in serum-supplemented medium or the MesenCult-XF„¥ culture system (Stem Cell Technologies). Cultures established in MesenCult-XF„¥ grew faster than those grown in serum-supplemented medium and retained a more optimal MSC phenotype. L-MSC cultivated in MesenCult-XFR were also positive for CD141, rarely expressed £\-sma, and displayed multi-potency. L-MSC supported growth of HLE cells, with the largest epithelial islands being observed in the presence of L-MSC established in MesenCult-XF„¥ medium. All HLE cultures supported by L-MSC widely expressed the progenitor cell marker £GNp63, along with the corneal differentiation marker CK3/12. Our findings conclude that MesenCult-XFR is a superior culture system for L-MSC, but further studies are required to explore the significance of CD141 expression in these cells. Following on from the findings of the previous two parts, silk fibroin was tested as a novel dual-layer construct containing both an epithelium and underlying stroma for corneolimbal reconstruction. In this section, the growth and phenotype of HLE cells on non-porous versus porous fibroin membranes was compared. Furthermore, the growth of L-MSC in either serum-supplemented medium or the MesenCult-XFR culture system within fibroin fibrous mats was investigated. Lastly, the co-culture of HLE and L-MSC in serum-supplemented medium on and within fibroin dual-layer constructs was also examined. HLE on porous membranes displayed a flattened and squamous monolayer; in contrast, HLE on non-porous fibroin appeared cuboidal and stratified closer in appearance to a normal corneal epithelium. Both constructs maintained CK3/12 expression and distribution of £GNp63+ progenitor cells. Dual-layer fibroin scaffolds consisting of HLE cells and L-MSC maintained a similar phenotype as on the single layers alone. Overall, the present study proposed to create a three dimensional limbal tissue substitute of HLE cells and L-MSC together, ultimately for safe and beneficial transplantation back into the human eye. The results show that HLE and L-MSC can be cultivated separately and together whilst maintaining a clinically feasible phenotype containing a majority of progenitor cells. In addition, L-MSC were able to be cultivated routinely in the MesenCult-XF® culture system while maintaining a high purity for the MSC characteristic phenotype. However, as a serum-free culture medium was not found to sustain growth of both HLE and L-MSC, the combination scaffold was created in serum-supplemented medium, indicating that further refinement of this cultured limbal scaffold is required. This thesis has also demonstrated a potential novel marker for L-MSC, and has generated knowledge which may impact on the understanding of stromal-epithelial interactions. These results support the feasibility of a dual-layer tissue engineered corneolimbus constructed from silk fibroin, and warrant further studies into the potential benefits it offers to corneolimbal tissue regeneration. Further refinement of this technology should explore the potential benefits of using epithelial-stromal co-cultures with MesenCult-XF® derived L-MSC. Subsequent investigations into the effects of long-term culture on the phenotype and behaviour of the cells in the dual-layer scaffolds are also required. While this project demonstrated the feasibility in vitro for the production of a dual-layer tissue engineered corneolimbus, further studies are required to test the efficacy of the limbal scaffold in vivo. Future in vivo studies are essential to fully understand the integration and degradation of silk fibroin biomaterials in the cornea over time. Subsequent experiments should also investigate the use of both AM and silk fibroin with epithelial and stromal cell co-cultures in an animal model of LSCD. The outcomes of this project have provided a foundation for research into corneolimbal reconstruction using biomaterials and offer a stepping stone for future studies into corneolimbal tissue engineering.

Road trauma perceptions and the potential influence of the media

The United Nations Decade of Action for Road Safety (2011-2020) recognises the urgency of addressing global road trauma. Road crashes and attempts to reduce risky driving, including public education campaigns, receive media attention in many countries. In Australia, road fatalities have declined significantly. However, the extent of awareness about this success and of fatalities overall is unclear. A survey of 833 Australian drivers revealed the majority of participants under-estimated fatalities. Unexpectedly, some under-estimates appear based on recollections of media reports. The findings suggest lack of awareness of the extent of road deaths and that, paradoxically, media reports might contribute to underestimations. This represents a major public health challenge. Engaging community support for road safety, relative to other health/safety messages, may prove difficult if the extent of road trauma is misunderstood. Misperceptions about fatality levels may be a barrier to road users adopting safety precautions or supporting further road safety countermeasures.

Forward-secure hierarchical predicate encryption

Secrecy of decryption keys is an important pre-requisite for security of any encryption scheme and compromised private keys must be immediately replaced. \emph{Forward Security (FS)}, introduced to Public Key Encryption (PKE) by Canetti, Halevi, and Katz (Eurocrypt 2003), reduces damage from compromised keys by guaranteeing confidentiality of messages that were encrypted prior to the compromise event. The FS property was also shown to be achievable in (Hierarchical) Identity-Based Encryption (HIBE) by Yao, Fazio, Dodis, and Lysyanskaya (ACM CCS 2004). Yet, for emerging encryption techniques, offering flexible access control to encrypted data, by means of functional relationships between ciphertexts and decryption keys, FS protection was not known to exist.\smallskip In this paper we introduce FS to the powerful setting of \emph{Hierarchical Predicate Encryption (HPE)}, proposed by Okamoto and Takashima (Asiacrypt 2009). Anticipated applications of FS-HPE schemes can be found in searchable encryption and in fully private communication. Considering the dependencies amongst the concepts, our FS-HPE scheme implies forward-secure flavors of Predicate Encryption and (Hierarchical) Attribute-Based Encryption.\smallskip Our FS-HPE scheme guarantees forward security for plaintexts and for attributes that are hidden in HPE ciphertexts. It further allows delegation of decrypting abilities at any point in time, independent of FS time evolution. It realizes zero-inner-product predicates and is proven adaptively secure under standard assumptions. As the ``cross-product" approach taken in FS-HIBE is not directly applicable to the HPE setting, our construction resorts to techniques that are specific to existing HPE schemes and extends them with what can be seen as a reminiscent of binary tree encryption from FS-PKE.

Meta-evaluation to improve learning, evaluation capacity development and sustainability : Findings from a participatory evaluation project in Nepal

Recent studies suggest that meta-evaluation can be valuable in developing new approaches to evaluation, building evaluation capacities, and enhancing organizational learning. These new extensions of the concept of meta-evaluation are significant, given the growing emphasis on improving the quality and effectiveness of evaluation practices in the South Asian region. Following a review of the literature, this paper presents a case study of the use of concurrent meta-evaluation in the four-year project Assessing Communication for Social Change which developed and trialled a participatory impact assessment methodology in collaboration with a development communication Non-government organization (NGO) in Nepal. Key objectives of the meta-evaluation included to: continuously develop, adapt and improve the impact assessment methodology, Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) systems and process and other project activities; identify impacts of the project; and build capacities in critical reflection and review. Our analysis indicates that this meta-evaluation was essential to understanding various constraints related to the organizational context that affected the success of the project and the development of improved M&E systems and capacities within the NGO. We identified several limitations of our meta-evaluation methods, which were balanced by the strengths of other methods. Our case study suggests that as well as assessing the quality, credibility and value of evaluation practices, meta-evaluations need to focus on important contextual issues that can have significant impacts on the outcomes of participatory evaluation projects. They include hierarchical organizational cultures, communication barriers, power/knowledge relations, and the time and resources available. Meta-evaluations also need to consider wider issues such as the sustainability of evaluation systems and approaches.