The Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution with application to failure data

For the first time, we introduce and study some mathematical properties of the Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution that is a quite flexible model in analyzing positive data. It contains as special sub-models the exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated Rayleigh, exponentiated exponential, Weibull and also the new Kumaraswamy exponential distribution. We provide explicit expressions for the moments and moment generating function. We examine the asymptotic distributions of the extreme values. Explicit expressions are derived for the mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, reliability and Renyi entropy. The moments of the order statistics are calculated. We also discuss the estimation of the parameters by maximum likelihood. We obtain the expected information matrix. We provide applications involving two real data sets on failure times. Finally, some multivariate generalizations of the Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution are discussed. (C) 2010 The Franklin Institute. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Dosage-dependent shift in the spore community of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi following application of tannery sludge

The controlled disposal of tannery sludge in agricultural soils is a viable alternative for recycling such waste; however, the impact of this practice on the arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) communities is not well understood. We studied the effects of low-chromium tannery sludge amendment in soils on AMF spore density, species richness and diversity, and root colonization levels. Sludge was applied at four doses to an agricultural field in Rolandia, Parana state, Brazil. The sludge was left undisturbed on the soil surface and then the area was harrowed and planted with corn. The soil was sampled at four intervals and corn roots once within a year (2007/2008). AMF spore density was low (1 to 49 spores per 50 cm(3) of soil) and decreased as doses of tannery sludge increased. AMF root colonization was high (64%) and unaffected by tannery sludge. Eighteen AMF species belonging to six genera (Acaulospora, Glomus, Gigaspora, Scutellospora, Paraglomus, and Ambispora) were recorded. At the sludge doses of 9.0 and 22.6 Mg ha(-1), we observed a decrease in AMF species richness and diversity, and changes in their relative frequencies. Hierarchical grouping analysis showed that adding tannery waste to the soil altered AMF spore community in relation to the control, modifying the mycorrhizal status of soil and selectively favoring the sporulation of certain species.

Effect of water renewal on dominance hierarchy of juvenile Nile tilapia

Nile tilapia social position (Oreochromis niloticus) can be mediated by multiple channels, including chemical communication. Absence of chemical cues in the environment prevents hierarchical settlement among pairs, and enhances time spent in confrontations. The aim of this study was to test the effect of continuously renewed water flow on the establishment of hierarchical dominance in Nile tilapia juveniles. In this condition, a high frequency of attacks and disruption on hierarchical stability were expected because chemical cues for hierarchy maintenance could be washed out. After 3 days in isolation, the fish were paired by standard size but not by sex, and submitted to two conditions: continuously renewed water flow (RENEWED, n = 7) and non-renewed water flow (NONRENEWED n = 8). The paired fish were placed in an aquarium (40 cm x 30 cm x 40 cm) for 3 h; four 10-min sessions were video-recorded: the first, immediately after the fish were paired and the others 1, 2, and 3 h after pairing. Hierarchy was identified by a dominance index (DI = given attacks/received + given attacks) For each fish. The hierarchical stability was achieved by analyzing the difference between dominant DI and subordinate DI (DI-D). Hierarchy was established in both groups after second session because the DI was significantly higher for one fish of the pair. The frequency of attacks of the dominant fish in RENEWED and NONRENEWED conditions was similar in all observation sessions. The attack frequency by subordinate fish was also similar during the first three sessions (2-h pairing). However, the frequency of attacks by subordinate fish in the RENEWED condition was higher than in the NONRENEWED situation at the fourth observation session (means +/- S.E.: RENEWED = 2.83 +/- 0.94 x 10 min(-1) and NONRENEWED = 0.25 +/- 0.16 x 10 min(-1); Mann-Whitney, p = 0.04). At this point, a significant reduction of the DI-D was observed (means +/- S.E.: RENEWED = 0.70 +/- 0.11 and NONRENEWED = 1,00 +/- 0.002; Mann-Whitney, p = 0.04). The changes in DI-D were related to more frequent attacks by the subordinated fish in renewed water flow. According to our results, the unsteady agonistic interaction under renewed water flow leads to social instability. Thus, continuous water renewing can wash out relevant chemical substances and therefore disturb the dominance recognition by subordinate fish. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the association between phenolic compounds and the antioxidant activity of Brazilian red wines using chemometrics

The objective of this study was to evaluate the association among chemical parameters, the commercial value, and the antioxidant activity of Brazilian red wines using chemometric techniques. Twenty-nine samples from five different varieties were assessed. Samples were separated into three groups using hierarchical cluster analysis: cluster 1 presented the highest antioxidant activity towards DPPH (68.51% of inhibition) and ORAC (30,918.64 mu mol Trolox Equivalents/L), followed by cluster 3 (DPPH = 59.36% of inhibition: ORAC = 25,255.02 mu mol Trolox Equivalents/L) and then cluster 2 (DPPH = 46.67% of inhibition; ORAC = 19,395.74 gmol Trolox Equivalents/L). Although the correlation between the commercial value and the antioxidant activity on DPPH and ORAC was not statistically significant (P = 0.13 and P = 0.06, respectively), cluster 1 grouped the samples with higher commercial values. Cluster analysis applied to the variables suggested that non-anthocyanin flavonoids were the main phenolic class exerting antioxidant activity on Brazilian red wines. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Novel benzofuroxan derivatives against multidrug-resistant Staphylococcus aureus strains: Design using Topliss` decision tree, synthesis and biological assay

The aim of this study was the design of a set of benzofuroxan derivatives as antimicrobial agents exploring the physicochemical properties of the related substituents. Topliss` decision tree approach was applied to select the substituent groups. Hierarchical cluster analysis was also performed to emphasize natural clusters and patterns. The compounds were obtained using two synthetic approaches for reducing the synthetic steps as well as improving the yield. The minimal inhibitory concentration method was employed to evaluate the activity against multidrug-resistant Staphylococcus aureus strains. The most active compound was 4-nitro-3-(trifluoromethyl)[N`-(benzofuroxan-5-yl) methylene] benzhydrazide (MIC range 12.7-11.4 mu g/mL), pointing out that the antimicrobial activity was indeed influenced by the hydrophobic and electron-withdrawing property of the substituent groups 3-CF(3) and 4-NO(2), respectively. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monitoring the authenticity of Brazilian UHT milk: A chemometric approach

In this work, chemometric methods are reported as potential tools for monitoring the authenticity of Brazilian ultra-high temperature (UHT) milk processed in industrial plants located in different regions of the country. A total of 100 samples were submitted to the qualitative analysis of adulterants such as starch, chlorine, formal. hydrogen peroxide and urine. Except for starch, all the samples reported, at least, the presence of one adulterant. The use of chemometric methodologies such as the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA) enabled the verification of the occurrence of certain adulterations in specific regions. The proposed multivariate approaches may allow the sanitary agency authorities to optimise materials, human and financial resources, as they associate the occurrence of adulterations to the geographical location of the industrial plants. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Distinct conformational properties determined by implicit and explicit representation of protein-solvent interactions. An analytical and computer simulation study

In the protein folding problem, solvent-mediated forces are commonly represented by intra-chain pairwise contact energy. Although this approximation has proven to be useful in several circumstances, it is limited in some other aspects of the problem. Here we show that it is possible to achieve two models to represent the chain-solvent system. one of them with implicit and other with explicit solvent, such that both reproduce the same thermodynamic results. Firstly, lattice models treated by analytical methods, were used to show that the implicit and explicitly representation of solvent effects can be energetically equivalent only if local solvent properties are time and spatially invariant. Following, applying the same reasoning Used for the lattice models, two inter-consistent Monte Carlo off-lattice models for implicit and explicit solvent are constructed, being that now in the latter the solvent properties are allowed to fluctuate. Then, it is shown that the chain configurational evolution as well as the globule equilibrium conformation are significantly distinct for implicit and explicit solvent systems. Actually, strongly contrasting with the implicit solvent version, the explicit solvent model predicts: (i) a malleable globule, in agreement with the estimated large protein-volume fluctuations; (ii) thermal conformational stability, resembling the conformational hear resistance of globular proteins, in which radii of gyration are practically insensitive to thermal effects over a relatively wide range of temperatures; and (iii) smaller radii of gyration at higher temperatures, indicating that the chain conformational entropy in the unfolded state is significantly smaller than that estimated from random coil configurations. Finally, we comment on the meaning of these results with respect to the understanding of the folding process. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A chemometric study on the analgesic activity of cannabinoid compounds using SDA, KNN and SIMCA methods

The supervised pattern recognition methods K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), stepwise discriminant analysis (SDA), and soft independent modelling of class analogy (SIMCA) were employed in this work with the aim to investigate the relationship between the molecular structure of 27 cannabinoid compounds and their analgesic activity. Previous analyses using two unsupervised pattern recognition methods (PCA-principal component analysis and HCA-hierarchical cluster analysis) were performed and five descriptors were selected as the most relevants for the analgesic activity of the compounds studied: R (3) (charge density on substituent at position C(3)), Q (1) (charge on atom C(1)), A (surface area), log P (logarithm of the partition coefficient) and MR (molecular refractivity). The supervised pattern recognition methods (SDA, KNN, and SIMCA) were employed in order to construct a reliable model that can be able to predict the analgesic activity of new cannabinoid compounds and to validate our previous study. The results obtained using the SDA, KNN, and SIMCA methods agree perfectly with our previous model. Comparing the SDA, KNN, and SIMCA results with the PCA and HCA ones we could notice that all multivariate statistical methods classified the cannabinoid compounds studied in three groups exactly in the same way: active, moderately active, and inactive.

A Novel Nonparametric Density Estimator

We present a novel nonparametric density estimator and a new data-driven bandwidth selection method with excellent properties. The approach is in- spired by the principles of the generalized cross entropy method. The pro- posed density estimation procedure has numerous advantages over the tra- ditional kernel density estimator methods. Firstly, for the first time in the nonparametric literature, the proposed estimator allows for a genuine incor- poration of prior information in the density estimation procedure. Secondly, the approach provides the first data-driven bandwidth selection method that is guaranteed to provide a unique bandwidth for any data. Lastly, simulation examples suggest the proposed approach outperforms the current state of the art in nonparametric density estimation in terms of accuracy and reliability.

Elite athletes: Why does the 'fire' burn so brightly?

Background and Purpose: What drives some athletes to achieve at the highest level whilst other athletes fail to achieve their physical potential? Why does the ‘fire’ burn so brightly for some elite athletes and not for others? A good understanding of an athlete’s motivation is critical to a coach designing an appropriate motivational climate to realize an athlete’s physical talent. This paper examines the motivational processes of elite athletes within the framework of three major social-cognitive theories of motivation. Method: Participants were five male and five female elite track and field athletes from Australia who had finished in the top ten at either the Olympic Games and/or the World Championships in the last six years. Qualitative data were collected using semi-structured interviews. Results and Discussion: Inductive analyses revealed several major themes associated with the motivational processes of elite athletes: (a) they were highly driven by personal goals and achievement, (b) they had strong self-belief, and (c) track and field was central to their lives. The findings are discussed in light of recent social-cognitive theories of motivation, namely, self-determination theory, the hierarchical model of motivation, and achievement goal theory. Self-determined forms of motivation characterised the elite athletes in this study and, consistent with social-cognitive theories of motivation, it is suggested that goal accomplishment enhances perceptions of competence and consequently promotes self-determined forms of motivation.

Entanglement between a qubit and the environment in the spin-boson model

The quantitative description of the quantum entanglement between a qubit and its environment is considered. Specifically, for the ground state of the spin-boson model, the entropy of entanglement of the spin is calculated as a function of α, the strength of the ohmic coupling to the environment, and ɛ, the level asymmetry. This is done by a numerical renormalization group treatment of the related anisotropic Kondo model. For ɛ=0, the entanglement increases monotonically with α, until it becomes maximal for α→1-. For fixed ɛ>0, the entanglement is a maximum as a function of α for a value, α=αM

Population subdivision in marine environments: the contributions of biogeography, geographic distance, and discontinuous habitat to genetic differentiation in a blennioid

The relative importance of factors that may promote genetic differentiation in marine organisms is largely unknown. Here, contributions to population structure from biogeography, habitat distribution, and isolation by distance were investigated in Axoclinus nigricaudus, a small subtidal rock reef fish, throughout its range in the Gulf of California. A 408 basepair fragment of the mitochondrial control region was sequenced from 105 individuals. Variation was significantly partitioned between many pairs of populations. Phylogenetic analyses, hierarchical analyses of variance, and general linear models substantiated a major break between two putative biogeographic regions. This genetic discontinuity coincides with an abrupt change in ecological characteristics (including temperature and salinity) but does not coincide with known oceanographic circulation patterns. Geographic distance and the nature of habitat separating populations (continuous habitat along a shoreline, discontinuous habitat along a shoreline, and open water) also contributed to population structure in general linear model analyses. To verify that local populations are genetically stable over time, one population was resampled on four occasions over eighteen months; it showed no evidence of a temporal component to diversity. These results indicate that having a planktonic life stage does not preclude geographically partitioned genetic variation over relatively small geographic distances in marine environments. Moreover, levels of genetic differentiation among populations of Axoclinus nigricaudus cannot be explained by a single factor, but are due to the combined influences of a biogeographic boundary, habitat, and geographic distance.