Los países andinos en la perspectiva de la globalización

La globalización es un fenómeno asimétrico y heterogéneo que ofrece oportunidades para algunas sociedades, pero que también tiene severos impactos negativos en otras. En este artículo se hace una evaluación empírica de los resultados que ha tenido su inserción en la economía global en los últimos dos decenios para los países andinos.Se examinan cuatro ejes temáticos: crecimiento, comercio internacional, flujos financieros y la inversión extranjera directa, y equidad social. Se concluye con una relación (no exhaustiva) de las políticas de desarrollo que los países andinos deberían adoptar (o profundizar) para mejorar la calidad de su inserción internacional.-----The asymmetric and heterogeneous phenomenon of the globalization offers opportunities to some societies, but also impacts adversely others. This paper evaluates for the Andean countries on an empirical basis the outcome of their insertion in the global economy during the last two decades.To this end, four topical axes are examined: growth; international trade; financial flows and foreign direct investment; and social equity. It concludes with a –non-exhaustive– list of development policies that should be adopted (or furthered) by the Andean countries in order to improve the quality of their international insertion.

Partial decentralization as a safeguard against favoritism

In this paper I investigate the optimal level of decentralization of tasks for the provision of a local public good. I enrich the well-known trade-off between internalization of spillovers (that favors centralization) and accountability (that favors decentralization) by considering that public goods are produced through multiple tasks. This adds an additional institutional setting, partial decentralization, to the classical choice between full decentralization and full centralization. The main results are that partial decentralization is optimal when both the variance of exogenous shocks to electorate’s utility is large and the electorate expects high performance from politicians. I also show that the optimal institutional setting depends on the degree of substitutability / complementarity between tasks. In particular, I show that a large degree of substitutability between tasks makes favoritism more likely, which increases the desirability of partial decentralization as a safeguard against favoritism.

Works Councils: An Agency Perspective

This paper investigates the role of works councils in a simple agency framework in whichworks councils are supposed to monitor manager's information on behalf of the workforce,but they are independent agents who might pursue their private interest. First, we considerthat workers can incentivize works councils through contingent monetary payments. In orderto deter collusion, workers must pay higher compensations in states of nature where they canbe expropriated by potential coalitions among works councils and management. Collusionmakes contingent payments costly and reduces workers' payoffs. Second, when elections areused to align works councils' interest only well compensated representatives would face aninter-temporal trade-off between accepting management's transfers at first period and losingrents at the second period. Elections increase the cost of entering on collusive behaviour withmanagement and works councils will try to behave on the employees' interest.

Entre el liberalismo y el realismo en la política exterior de Singapur en la década del 60, a la luz del modelo desarrollista

El interés de esta monografía es estudiar si existe una disyuntiva entre la política exterior y la política económica de Singapur, o si existe una correlación entre ellas. Para ello, se analiza a profundidad la relación entre la teoría liberal en la política exterior y la teoría realista en la política económica de Singapur. Al realizar este análisis, se podrá diagnosticar el modelo de desarrollo e identificar los elementos que configuraron su éxito como las exportaciones y las inversiones extranjeras directas. Por lo tanto, en un principio puede que haya una disyuntiva entre estas teorías para analizar el objeto de investigación, no obstante, en el caso de Singapur, el Gobierno decidió una política exterior de liberalización económica y esta política ha sido impulsada por el Estado, adoptando una visión realista puesto que protege al mismo tiempo el interés nacional del Estado.

Aplicació d'algoritmes genètics en l'optimització dels processos de fabricació del paper

La creciente preocupación y concienciación de la sociedad respecto el medio ambiente, y en consecuencia la legislación y regulaciones generadas inducen a la modificación de los procesos productivos existentes en la industria química. Las configuraciones iniciales deben modificarse para conseguir una mayor integración de procesos. Para este fin se han creado y desarrollado diferentes metodologías que deben facilitar la tarea a los responsables del rediseño. El desarrollo de una metodología y herramientas complementarias es el principal objetivo de la investigación aquí presentada, especialmente centrada en el desarrollo y la aplicación de una metodología de optimización de procesos. Esta metodología de optimización se aplica sobre configuraciones de proceso existentes y pretende encontrar nuevas configuraciones viables según los objetivos de optimización fijados. La metodología tiene dos partes diferenciadas: la primera se basa en un simulador de procesos comercial y la segunda es la técnica de optimización propiamente dicha. La metodología se inicia con la elaboración de una simulación convenientemente validada que reproduzca el proceso existente, en este caso una papelera no integrada que produce papel estucado de calidad, para impresión. A continuación la técnica de optimización realiza una búsqueda dentro del dominio de los posibles resultados, en busca de los mejores resultados que satisfazcan plenamente los objetivos planteados. Dicha técnica de optimización está basada en los algoritmos genéticos como herramienta de búsqueda, junto a un subprograma basado en técnicas de programación matemática para el cálculo de resultados. Un número reducido de resultados son finalmente escogidos y utilizados para modificar la simulación existente fijando la redistribución de los flujos del proceso. Los resultados de la simulación del proceso determinan en último caso la viabilidad técnica de cada reconfiguración planteada. En el proceso de optimización, los objetivos están definidos en una función objetivo dentro de la técnica de optimización. Dicha función rige la búsqueda de resultados. La función objetivo puede ser individual o una combinación de objetivos. En el presente caso, la función persigue una minimización del consumo de agua y una minimización de la pérdida de materia prima. La optimización se realiza bajo restricciones para alcanzar este objetivo combinado en forma de una solución de compromiso. Producto de la aplicación de esta metodología se han obtenido resultados interesantes que significan una mejora del cierre de circuitos y un ahorro de materia prima, sin comprometer al mismo tiempo la operabilidad del proceso producto ni la calidad del papel.

Industria y concentración de cultivos: la contribución de la industria del frío en la fruticultura leridana

Para avanzar en el estudio de la concentración espacial de cultivos, se ha elegido el caso de la manzana, la pera y el melocotón en Lleida, desde 1962 a 2000. La evolución de ese fenómeno se ha estudiado mediante técnicas de equilibrio espacial y análisis shift share, encontrándose una pauta espacial de comportamiento distinta entre la manzana y la pera por una parte y el melocotón por otro. En el caso de las técnicas shift share se ha modelado el efecto diferencial como el resultado de un juego de suma nula, y suponiendo que las transferencias de efectos son más probables hacia las regiones más cercanas, se ha avanzado una explicación de las transferencias de superficie que se produjeron entre 1962 y 2000. La diferencia encontrada en el distinto comportamiento espacial de esos cultivos se ha atribuido a la susceptibilidad de cada cultivo para ser conservado frigoríficamente. Se ha desarrollado un modelo que relaciona los incrementos de la capacidad en la industria frigorífica y de la superficie.

On intentional and social agents with graded attitudes

La principal contribución de esta Tesis es la propuesta de un modelo de agente BDI graduado (g-BDI) que permita especificar una arquitetura de agente capaz de representar y razonar con actitudes mentales graduadas. Consideramos que una arquitectura BDI más exible permitirá desarrollar agentes que alcancen mejor performance en entornos inciertos y dinámicos, al servicio de otros agentes (humanos o no) que puedan tener un conjunto de motivaciones graduadas. En el modelo g-BDI, las actitudes graduadas del agente tienen una representación explícita y adecuada. Los grados en las creencias representan la medida en que el agente cree que una fórmula es verdadera, en los deseos positivos o negativos permiten al agente establecer respectivamente, diferentes niveles de preferencias o de rechazo. Las graduaciones en las intenciones también dan una medida de preferencia pero en este caso, modelan el costo/beneficio que le trae al agente alcanzar una meta. Luego, a partir de la representación e interacción de estas actitudes graduadas, pueden ser modelados agentes que muestren diferentes tipos de comportamiento. La formalización del modelo g-BDI está basada en los sistemas multi-contextos. Diferentes lógicas modales multivaluadas se han propuesto para representar y razonar sobre las creencias, deseos e intenciones, presentando en cada caso una axiomática completa y consistente. Para tratar con la semántica operacional del modelo de agente, primero se definió un calculus para la ejecución de sistemas multi-contextos, denominado Multi-context calculus. Luego, mediante este calculus se le ha dado al modelo g-BDI semántica computacional. Por otra parte, se ha presentado una metodología para la ingeniería de agentes g-BDI en un escenario multiagente. El objeto de esta propuesta es guiar el diseño de sistemas multiagentes, a partir de un problema del mundo real. Por medio del desarrollo de un sistema recomendador en turismo como caso de estudio, donde el agente recomendador tiene una arquitectura g-BDI, se ha mostrado que este modelo es valioso para diseñar e implementar agentes concretos. Finalmente, usando este caso de estudio se ha realizado una experimentación sobre la flexibilidad y performance del modelo de agente g-BDI, demostrando que es útil para desarrollar agentes que manifiesten conductas diversas. También se ha mostrado que los resultados obtenidos con estos agentes recomendadores modelizados con actitudes graduadas, son mejores que aquellos alcanzados por los agentes con actitudes no-graduadas.

Can wavelets improve the representation of forecast error covariances in variational data assimilation?

Two wavelet-based control variable transform schemes are described and are used to model some important features of forecast error statistics for use in variational data assimilation. The first is a conventional wavelet scheme and the other is an approximation of it. Their ability to capture the position and scale-dependent aspects of covariance structures is tested in a two-dimensional latitude-height context. This is done by comparing the covariance structures implied by the wavelet schemes with those found from the explicit forecast error covariance matrix, and with a non-wavelet- based covariance scheme used currently in an operational assimilation scheme. Qualitatively, the wavelet-based schemes show potential at modeling forecast error statistics well without giving preference to either position or scale-dependent aspects. The degree of spectral representation can be controlled by changing the number of spectral bands in the schemes, and the least number of bands that achieves adequate results is found for the model domain used. Evidence is found of a trade-off between the localization of features in positional and spectral spaces when the number of bands is changed. By examining implied covariance diagnostics, the wavelet-based schemes are found, on the whole, to give results that are closer to diagnostics found from the explicit matrix than from the nonwavelet scheme. Even though the nature of the covariances has the right qualities in spectral space, variances are found to be too low at some wavenumbers and vertical correlation length scales are found to be too long at most scales. The wavelet schemes are found to be good at resolving variations in position and scale-dependent horizontal length scales, although the length scales reproduced are usually too short. The second of the wavelet-based schemes is often found to be better than the first in some important respects, but, unlike the first, it has no exact inverse transform.

Methods and resources for climate impacts research: achieving synergy

The prediction of climate variability and change requires the use of a range of simulation models. Multiple climate model simulations are needed to sample the inherent uncertainties in seasonal to centennial prediction. Because climate models are computationally expensive, there is a tradeoff between complexity, spatial resolution, simulation length, and ensemble size. The methods used to assess climate impacts are examined in the context of this trade-off. An emphasis on complexity allows simulation of coupled mechanisms, such as the carbon cycle and feedbacks between agricultural land management and climate. In addition to improving skill, greater spatial resolution increases relevance to regional planning. Greater ensemble size improves the sampling of probabilities. Research from major international projects is used to show the importance of synergistic research efforts. The primary climate impact examined is crop yield, although many of the issues discussed are relevant to hydrology and health modeling. Methods used to bridge the scale gap between climate and crop models are reviewed. Recent advances include large-area crop modeling, quantification of uncertainty in crop yield, and fully integrated crop–climate modeling. The implications of trends in computer power, including supercomputers, are also discussed.

WREN: electronic management system for facilities management

This paper describes a case study of an electronic data management system developed in-house by the Facilities Management Directorate (FMD) of an educational institution in the UK. The FMD Maintenance and Business Services department is responsible for the maintenance of the built-estate owned by the university. The department needs to have a clear definition of the type of work undertaken and the administration that enables any maintenance work to be carried out. These include the management of resources, budget, cash flow and workflow of reactive, preventative and planned maintenance of the campus. In order to be more efficient in supporting the business process, the FMD had decided to move from a paper-based information system to an electronic system, WREN, to support the business process of the FMD. Some of the main advantages of WREN are that it is tailor-made to fit the purpose of the users; it is cost effective when it comes to modifications on the system; and the database can also be used as a knowledge management tool. There is a trade-off; as WREN is tailored to the specific requirements of the FMD, it may not be easy to implement within a different institution without extensive modifications. However, WREN is successful in not only allowing the FMD to carry out the tasks of maintaining and looking after the built-estate of the university, but also has achieved its aim to minimise costs and maximise efficiency.

Evolutionary bi-stability in pathogen transmission mode

Many pathogens transmit to new hosts by both infection (horizontal transmission) and transfer to the infected host's offspring (vertical transmission). These two transmission modes require speci®c adap- tations of the pathogen that can be mutually exclusive, resulting in a trade-off between horizontal and vertical transmission. We show that in mathematical models such trade-offs can lead to the simultaneous existence of two evolutionary stable states (evolutionary bi-stability) of allocation of resources to the two modes of transmission. We also show that jumping between evolutionary stable states can be induced by gradual environmental changes. Using quantitative PCR-based estimates of abundance in seed and vege- tative parts, we show that the pathogen of wheat, Phaeosphaeria nodorum, has jumped between two distinct states of transmission mode twice in the past 160 years, which, based on published evidence, we interpret as adaptation to environmental change. The ®nding of evolutionary bi-stability has impli- cations for human, animal and other plant diseases. An ill-judged change in a disease control programme could cause the pathogen to evolve a new, and possibly more damaging, combination of transmission modes. Similarly, environmental changes can shift the balance between transmission modes, with adverse effects on human, animal and plant health.

Formulation of a live bacterial vaccine for stable room temperature storage results in loss of acid, bile and bile salt resistance

Live bacterial vaccines have great promise both as vaccines against enteric pathogens and as heterologous antigen vectors against diverse diseases. Ideally, room temperature stable dry formulations of live bacterial vaccines will allow oral vaccination without cold-chain storage or injections. Attenuated Salmonella can cross the intestinal wall and deliver replicating antigen plus innate immune activation signals directly to the intestinal immune tissues, however the ingested bacteria must survive firstly gastric acid and secondly the antimicrobial defences of the small intestine. We found that the way in which cells are grown prior to formulation markedly affects sensitivity to acid and bile. Using a previously published stable storage formulation that maintained over 10% viability after 56 days storage at room temperature, we found dried samples of an attenuated S. typhimurium vaccine lost acid and bile resistance compared to the same bacteria taken from fresh culture. The stable formulation utilised osmotic preconditioning in defined medium plus elevated salt concentration to induce intracellular trehalose accumulation before drying. Dried bacteria grown in rich media without osmotic preconditioning showed more resistance to bile, but less stability during storage, suggesting a trade-off between bile resistance and stability. Further optimization is needed to produce the ultimate room-temperature stable oral live bacterial vaccine formulation.

Very short delays prior to escape from potential predators may function efficiently as adaptive risk-assessment periods

Periods between predator detection and an escape response (escape delays) by prey upon attack by a predator often arise because animals trade-off the benefits such a delay gives for assessing risk accurately with the costs of not escaping as quickly as possible. We tested whether freezing behaviour (complete immobility in a previously foraging bird) observed in chaffinches before escaping from an approaching potential threat functions as a period of risk-assessment, and whether information on predator identity is gained even when time available is very short. We flew either a model of a sparrowhawk (predator) or a woodpigeon (no threat) at single chaffinches. Escape delays were significantly shorter with the hawk, except when a model first appeared close to the chaffinch. Chaffinches were significantly more vigilant when they resumed feeding after exposure to the sparrowhawk compared to the woodpigeon showing that they were able to distinguish between threats, and this applied even when time available for assessment was short (an average of 0.29 s). Our results show freezing in chaffinches functions as an effective economic risk assessment period, and that threat information is gained even when very short periods of time are available during an attack.

Dual technological development in Botswana agriculture: A Stochastic input distance function approach

To improve the welfare of the rural poor and keep them in the countryside, the government of Botswana has been spending 40% of the value of agricultural GDP on agricultural support services. But can investment make smallholder agriculture prosperous in such adverse conditions? This paper derives an answer by applying a two-output six-input stochastic translog distance function, with inefficiency effects and biased technical change to panel data for the 18 districts and the commercial agricultural sector, from 1979 to 1996 This model demonstrates that herds are the most important input, followed by draft power. land and seeds. Multilateral indices for technical change, technical efficiency and total factor productivity (TFP) show that the technology level of the commercial agricultural sector is more than six times that of traditional agriculture and that the gap has been increasing, due to technological regression in traditional agriculture and modest progress in commercial agriculture. Since the levels of efficiency are similar, the same patient is repeated by the TFP indices. This result highlights the policy dilemma of the trade-off between efficiency and equity objectives.