Offshoring and directed technical change

To study the short-run and long-run implications on wage inequality, we introducedirected technical change into a Ricardian model of offshoring. A unique final good isproduced by combining a skilled and an unskilled product, each produced from a continuumof intermediates (tasks). Some of these tasks can be transferred from a skill-abundant Westto a skill-scarce East. Profit maximization determines both the extent of offshoring andtechnological progress. Offshoring induces skill-biased technical change because it increasesthe relative price of skill-intensive products and induces technical change favoring unskilledworkers because it expands the market size for technologies complementing unskilled labor.In the empirically more relevant case, starting from low levels, an increase in offshoringopportunities triggers a transition with falling real wages for unskilled workers in the West,skill-biased technical change and rising skill premia worldwide. However, when the extentof offshoring becomes sufficiently large, further increases in offshoring induce technicalchange now biased in favor of unskilled labor because offshoring closes the gap betweenunskilled wages in the West and the East, thus limiting the power of the price effectfueling skill-biased technical change. The unequalizing impact of offshoring is thus greatestat the beginning. Transitional dynamics reveal that offshoring and technical change aresubstitutes in the short run but complements in the long run. Finally, though offshoringimproves the welfare of workers in the East, it may benefit or harm unskilled workers inthe West depending on elasticities and the equilibrium growth rate.

Early change in defence mechanisms and coping in short-term dynamic psychotherapy: relations with symptoms and alliance.

Several patient-related variables have already been investigated as predictors of change in psychodynamic psychotherapy. Defensive functioning is one of them. However, few studies have investigated adaptational processes, encompassing defence mechanisms and coping, from an integrative or comparative viewpoint. This study includes 32 patients, mainly diagnosed with adjustment disorder and undergoing time-limited psychodynamic psychotherapy lasting up to 40 sessions, and will focus on early change in defence and coping. Observer-rater methodology was applied to the transcripts of two sessions of the first part of the psychotherapeutic process. It is assumed that the contextual-relational variable of therapeutic alliance intervenes as moderator on change in adaptational processes. Results corroborated the hypothesis, but only for coping, whereas for defences, overall functioning remained stable over the first 20 sessions of psychotherapy. These results are discussed within the framework of disentangling processes underlying adaptation, i.e., related to issues on trait and state aspects, as well as the role of the therapeutic alliance.

Immunonutrition in gastrointestinal surgery.

Background: Patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery are at increased risk of developing complications. The use of immunonutrition (IN) in such patients is not widespread because the available data are heterogeneous, and some show contradictory results with regard to complications, mortality and length of hospital stay. Methods: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published between January 1985 and September 2009 that assessed the clinical impact of perioperative enteral IN in major gastrointestinal elective surgery were included in a meta-analysis. Results: Twenty-one RCTs enrolling a total of 2730 patients were included in the meta-analysis. Twelve were considered as high-quality studies. The included studies showed significant heterogeneity with respect to patients, control groups, timing and duration of IN, which limited group analysis. IN significantly reduced overall complications when used before surgery (odds ratio (OR) 0.48, 95 per cent confidence interval (c.i.) 0.34 to 0.69), both before and after operation (OR 0.39, 0.28 to 0.54) or after surgery (OR 0.46, 0.25 to 0.84). For these three timings of IN administration, ORs of postoperative infection were 0.36 (0.24 to 0.56), 0.41 (0.28 to 0.58) and 0.53 (0.40 to 0.71) respectively. Use of IN led to a shorter hospital stay: mean difference -2.12 (95 per cent c.i. -2.97 to -1.26) days. Beneficial effects of IN were confirmed when low-quality trials were excluded. Perioperative IN had no influence on mortality (OR 0.90, 0.46 to 1.76). Conclusion: Perioperative enteral IN decreases morbidity and hospital stay but not mortality after major gastrointestinal surgery; its routine use can be recommended.

Voting after the bombing: Can terrorist attacks change the outcome of democratic elections?

Economists have recently turned their attention to the effects of terrorism. One much debated effect of terrorist attacks is its impact on the results of democratic elections. We use the electoral consequences of the terrorist attacks of the 11-M in Madrid to analyze this issue. We consider this particular experiment since the attack took place only three days before the 2004 Congressional Election, which allows the use of credible identification criteria. In particular, we use the advance voting by Spanish residents abroad, who cast their vote before the terrorist attack, to identify the effect of the bombing. We exploit this macabre natural experiment to run a difference-in-differences estimation using data on three consecutive Congressional elections. Our empirical results indicate that a terrorist attack can have a large impact on the outcome of democratic elections.

Organisational values as "attractors of chaos": An emerging cultural change to manage organisational complexity

Business organisations are excellent representations of what in physics and mathematics are designated "chaotic" systems. Because a culture of innovation will be vital for organisational survival in the 21st century, the present paper proposes that viewing organisations in terms of "complexity theory" may assist leaders in fine-tuning managerial philosophies that provide orderly management emphasizing stability within a culture of organised chaos, for it is on the "boundary of chaos" that the greatest creativity occurs. It is argued that 21st century companies, as chaotic social systems, will no longer be effectively managed by rigid objectives (MBO) nor by instructions (MBI). Their capacity for self-organisation will be derived essentially from how their members accept a shared set of values or principles for action (MBV). Complexity theory deals with systems that show complex structures in time or space, often hiding simple deterministic rules. This theory holds that once these rules are found, it is possible to make effective predictions and even to control the apparent complexity. The state of chaos that self-organises, thanks to the appearance of the "strange attractor", is the ideal basis for creativity and innovation in the company. In this self-organised state of chaos, members are not confined to narrow roles, and gradually develop their capacity for differentiation and relationships, growing continuously toward their maximum potential contribution to the efficiency of the organisation. In this way, values act as organisers or "attractors" of disorder, which in the theory of chaos are equations represented by unusually regular geometric configurations that predict the long-term behaviour of complex systems. In business organisations (as in all kinds of social systems) the starting principles end up as the final principles in the long term. An attractor is a model representation of the behavioral results of a system. The attractor is not a force of attraction or a goal-oriented presence in the system; it simply depicts where the system is headed based on its rules of motion. Thus, in a culture that cultivates or shares values of autonomy, responsibility, independence, innovation, creativity, and proaction, the risk of short-term chaos is mitigated by an overall long-term sense of direction. A more suitable approach to manage the internal and external complexities that organisations are currently confronting is to alter their dominant culture under the principles of MBV.

North-south trade and directed technical change

In a world where poor countries provide weak protection for intellectual propertyrights, market integration shifts technical change in favor of rich nations. Throughthis channel, free trade may amplify international income differences. At the sametime, integration with countries where intellectual property rights are weakly protectedcan slow down the world growth rate. A crucial implication of these results is thatprotection of intellectual property is most beneficial in open countries. This prediction,which is novel in the literature, finds support in the data on a panel of 53 countriesobserved in the years 1965-1990.

Skill-biased technological change and the business cycle

Over the past two decades, technological progress in the United States hasbeen biased towards skilled labor. What does this imply for business cycles?We construct a quarterly skill premium from the CPS and use it to identifyskill-biased technology shocks in a VAR with long-run restrictions. Hours fallin response to skill-biased technology shocks, indicating that at least part of thetechnology-induced fall in total hours is due to a compositional shift in labordemand. Skill-biased technology shocks have no effect on the relative price ofinvestment, suggesting that capital and skill are not complementary in aggregateproduction.

Embodied technical change and the fluctuations of wages and unemployment

The paper shows that a matching model where technological change is partially embodied in the job match is successful in explaining the variability of unemployment and vacancies. If we incorporate long-term wage contracts into the model, it also explains a number of stylized facts on the dynamics of real wages, which have been found in the empirical labor literature.

KIT mutations and dose selection for imatinib in patients with advanced gastrointestinal stromal tumours.

A recent randomized EORTC phase III trial, comparing two doses of imatinib in patients with advanced gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GISTs), reported dose dependency for progression-free survival. The current analysis of that study aimed to assess if tumour mutational status correlates with clinical response to imatinib. Pre-treatment samples of GISTs from 377 patients enrolled in phase III study were analyzed for mutations of KIT or PDGFRA by combination of D-HPLC and direct sequencing of tumour genomic DNA. Mutation types were correlated with patients' survival data. The presence of exon 9-activating mutations in KIT was the strongest adverse prognostic factor for response to imatinib, increasing the relative risk of progression by 171% (P<0.0001) and the relative risk of death by 190% (P<0.0001) when compared with KIT exon 11 mutants. Similarly, the relative risk of progression was increased by 108% (P<0.0001) and the relative risk of death by 76% (P=0.028) in patients without detectable KIT or PDGFRA mutations. In patients whose tumours expressed an exon 9 KIT oncoprotein, treatment with the high-dose regimen resulted in a significantly superior progression-free survival (P=0.0013), with a reduction of the relative risk of 61%. We conclude that tumour genotype is of major prognostic significance for progression-free survival and overall survival in patients treated with imatinib for advanced GISTs. Our findings suggest the need for differential treatment of patients with GISTs, with KIT exon 9 mutant patients benefiting the most from the 800 mg daily dose of the drug.

Impact of colonic cleansing on quality and diagnostic yield of colonoscopy: the European Panel of Appropriateness of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy European multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: The quality of colon cleansing is a major determinant of quality of colonoscopy. To our knowledge, the impact of bowel preparation on the quality of colonoscopy has not been assessed prospectively in a large multicenter study. Therefore, this study assessed the factors that determine colon-cleansing quality and the impact of cleansing quality on the technical performance and diagnostic yield of colonoscopy. METHODS: Twenty-one centers from 11 countries participated in this prospective observational study. Colon-cleansing quality was assessed on a 5-point scale and was categorized on 3 levels. The clinical indication for colonoscopy, diagnoses, and technical parameters related to colonoscopy were recorded. RESULTS: A total of 5832 patients were included in the study (48.7% men, mean age 57.6 [15.9] years). Cleansing quality was lower in elderly patients and in patients in the hospital. Procedures in poorly prepared patients were longer, more difficult, and more often incomplete. The detection of polyps of any size depended on cleansing quality: odds ratio (OR) 1.73: 95% confidence interval (CI)[1.28, 2.36] for intermediate-quality compared with low-quality preparation; and OR 1.46: 95% CI[1.11, 1.93] for high-quality compared with low-quality preparation. For polyps >10 mm in size, corresponding ORs were 1.0 for low-quality cleansing, OR 1.83: 95% CI[1.11, 3.05] for intermediate-quality cleansing, and OR 1.72: 95% CI[1.11, 2.67] for high-quality cleansing. Cancers were not detected less frequently in the case of poor preparation. CONCLUSIONS: Cleansing quality critically determines quality, difficulty, speed, and completeness of colonoscopy, and is lower in hospitalized patients and patients with higher levels of comorbid conditions. The proportion of patients who undergo polypectomy increases with higher cleansing quality, whereas colon cancer detection does not seem to critically depend on the quality of bowel preparation.

Interest rate restrictions in a natural experiment: loan allocation and the change in the usury laws in 1714

This article studies the effects of interest rate restrictions on loan allocation. The British governmenttightened the usury laws in 1714, reducing the maximum permissible interest rate from 6% to5%. A sample of individual loan transactions reveals that average loan size and minimum loan sizeincreased strongly, while access to credit worsened for those with little social capital. Collateralisedcredits, which had accounted for a declining share of total lending, returned to their former role ofprominence. Our results suggest that the usury laws distorted credit markets significantly; we findno evidence that they offered a form of Pareto-improving social insurance.

Expertise and finance: Mergers motivated by technological change

This paper argues that a large technological innovation may lead to a merger wave by inducing entrepreneurs to seek funds from technologically knowledgeable firms -experts. When a large technological innovation occurs, the ability of non-experts (banks) to discriminate between good and bad quality projects is reduced. Experts can continue to charge a low rate of interest for financing because their expertise enables them to identify good quality projects and to avoid unprofitable investments. On the other hand, non-experts now charge a higher rate of interest in order to screen bad projects. More entrepreneurs, therefore, disclose their projects to experts to raise funds from them. Such experts are, however, able to copy the projects and disclosure to them invites the possibility of competition. Thus the entrepreneur and the expert may merge so as to achieve product market collusion. As well as rationalizing mergers, the model can also explain various forms of venture financing by experts such as corporate investors and business angels.