Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual horizons. The data to be used consists of metal-commodity prices in a monthly frequency from 1957 to 2012 from the International Financial Statistics of the IMF on individual metal series. We will also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009) , which are available for download. Regarding short- and long-run comovement, we will apply the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature to build parsimonious VARs, which possibly entail quasi-structural relationships between different commodity prices and/or between a given commodity price and its potential demand determinants. These parsimonious VARs will be later used as forecasting models to be combined to yield metal-commodity prices optimal forecasts. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, we will use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. With the forecasts of a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we will apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. The main contribution of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding forecasting, we show that models incorporating (short-run) commoncycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation. Still, in most cases, forecast combination techniques outperform individual models.

Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies. Data consists of metal-commodity prices at a monthly and quarterly frequencies from 1957 to 2012, extracted from the IFS, and annual data, provided from 1900-2010 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). We also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009). We investigate short- and long-run comovement by applying the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature. One of the main contributions of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, our main contribution is to show the benefits of forecast-combination techniques, which outperform individual-model forecasts - including the random-walk model. We use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates and functional forms to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. Using a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. Empirically, we show that models incorporating (short-run) common-cycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation.

Caracterização ambiental de bancos areno-lamosos nos campos petrolíferos de Macau e Serra (RN), como subsídio às medidas mitigadoras ao processo erosivo

On Rio Grande do Norte northern coast the process of sediment transport are intensely controlled by wind and sea (waves and currents) action, causing erosion and shoreline morphological instability. Due to the importance of such coastal zone it was realized the multi-spectral mapping and physical-chemical characterization of mudflats and mangroves aiming to support the mitigating actions related to the containment of the erosive process on the oil fields of Macau and Serra installed at the study area. The multi-spectral bands of 2000 and 2008 LANDSAT 5 TM images were submitted on the several digital processing steps and RGB color compositions integrating spectral bands and Principal Components. Such processing methodology was important to the mapping of different units on surface, together with field works. It was possible to make an analogy of the spectral characteristics of wetlands with vegetations areas (mangrove), showing the possibility to make a restoration of this area, contributing with the environmental monitoring of that ecosystem. The maps of several units were integrated in GIS environment at 1:60,000 scale, including the classification of features according to the presence or absence of vegetation cover. Thus, the strategy of methodology established that there are 10.13 km2 at least of sandy-muddy and of these approximately 0.89 km2 with the possibility to be used in a reforestation of typical flora of mangrove. The physical-chemical characterization showed areas with potential to introduce local species of mangrove and they had a pH above neutral with a mean of 8.4. The characteristic particle size is sand in the fine fractions, the high levels of carbonate, organic matter and major and trace element in general are concentrated where the sediment had the less particles size, showing the high correlation that those elements have with smaller particles of sediment. The application of that methodological strategy is relevant to the better understanding of features behavior and physical-chemical data of sediment samples collected on field allow the analysis of efficiency/capability of sandy-muddy to reforestation with local mangrove species for mitigation of the erosive action and coastal processes on the areas occupied by the oil industry

Biological features of a puzzling symbiotic association between the hermit crab Dardanus insignis and the porcellanid crab Porcellana Sayana (Crustacea)

The symbiotic lifestyle is widespread among porcellanid crabs, which maintain ecological and co-evolutionary associations with annelid polychaetes, poriferans, cnidarians, echinoderms, gastropod. mollusks, and other crustaceans such as shrimps and hermit crabs, among others. We investigated the ecological association between the hermit crab Dardanus insignis and the porcellanid Porcellana sayana, in southeastern Brazil. Porcellanid crabs, hermit crabs, and available shells were collected monthly from July 2001 to June 2003, with a shrimp boat equipped with two double-rig trawl nets. The majority of P. sayana specimens were collected in shells occupied by D. insignis (96.6%); a few were found in empty shells (3.4%). The catch of both symbionts and hosts increased with increasing depth, with the highest occurrence at 35 m. The F. sayana crabs of various sizes could be found solitary or forming aggregations of up to 14 individuals per host, showing no sex or size segregation. In spite of the high diversity of shell species occupied by the hermit crabs and also available in the field, only a few of them were also utilized by P. sayana. The majority (93%) of shells utilized by P. sayana also hosted other symbiont species, constituting the basis of extensive symbiotic complexes. Thus, the ecological relationship between D. insignis and P. sayana may be classified as a non-obligate and non-specific symbiosis that may also involve other facultative organisms such as sea anemones. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Structural features of the epididymal region of the domestic duck (Anas plathyrynchos)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

New features of Cuban endemic Pinguicula filifolia (Lentibulariaceae) and considerations on its habitat and ecology

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Microscopic features of tick-bite lesions in anteaters and armadillos - Emas National Park and the Pantanal region of Brazil

The naturally occurring wildlife host associations between ticks and tick-borne pathogens found in the neotropics are poorly described. Understanding tick-bite lesions is important as these are the site of host reaction to and pathogen delivery by ticks. As part of a comprehensive study concerning established and emerging tick-host relationships. The present work describes some aspects of tick-bite lesions in anteaters and armadillos captured at the Emas National Park and the Pantanal region of Brazil. Biopsies were of skin were taken and examine. Tick feeding sites of all animals displayed an eosinophilic homogeneous mass, the cement cone, and, occasionally, a feeding cavity underneath the tick attachment site. At these locations the epidermis was usually thickened due to keratinocyte hyperplasia. The main dermal changes included tissue infiltration with a varying number of inflammatory cells, edema, hemorrhage. and vascular dilatation. Cellular infiltration of the dermis was predominantly composed of mononuclear cells, neutrophils. and eosinophils. Mast cells were also seen in both non-parasitized and parasitized skin but were found in higher numbers at perivascular sites and in parasitized skin. Basophils were not seen at tick attachment sites of anteaters or armadillos.

Soil, water and nutrient losses by interrill erosion from green cane cultivation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Erosion factors and magnetic susceptibility in differet compartments of a slope in Gilbués-PI, Brazil

A erosão é a forma de degradação do solo com efeitos na produtividade das culturas e na poluição do meio ambiente. Para compreender a variabilidade espacial desse fenômeno, técnicas geoestatísticas e conceitos da relação solo-paisagem podem ser utilizados para identificar compartimentos da paisagem com diferentes potenciais de erosão. O objetivo deste trabalho foi estabelecer elementos para a compreensão dos fatores de erosão em compartimentos da paisagem e das relações com a suscetibilidade magnética (SM) dos solos de uma vertente no município de Gilbués -PI. Foram montadas malhas de amostragem nos compartimentos I e II, com 121 pontos, e compartimento III, com 99 pontos, espaçados a cada 10 m. Houve diferença significativa para erodibilidade (K) e risco de erosão (RE); a variabilidade espacial da SM foi menor do que a dos fatores de erosão do solo. As perdas de solo (A), potencial natural de erosão (PNE), RE e SM tiveram relação espacial com o fator topográfico, indicando dependência da erosão ao relevo. Concluiu-se que as perdas de solo, o potencial natural de erosão e o risco de erosão apresentaram relação espacial com o fator topográfico, comprovando a dependência dos fatores de erosão ao relevo. A suscetibilidade magnética do solo pode ser utilizada como variável auxiliar na quantificação indireta do fator erodibilidade e do risco de erosão do solo.

Seleção de features guiada por atenção visual em imagens com fóvea

Visual attention is a very important task in autonomous robotics, but, because of its complexity, the processing time required is significant. We propose an architecture for feature selection using foveated images that is guided by visual attention tasks and that reduces the processing time required to perform these tasks. Our system can be applied in bottom-up or top-down visual attention. The foveated model determines which scales are to be used on the feature extraction algorithm. The system is able to discard features that are not extremely necessary for the tasks, thus, reducing the processing time. If the fovea is correctly placed, then it is possible to reduce the processing time without compromising the quality of the tasks outputs. The distance of the fovea from the object is also analyzed. If the visual system loses the tracking in top-down attention, basic strategies of fovea placement can be applied. Experiments have shown that it is possible to reduce up to 60% the processing time with this approach. To validate the method, we tested it with the feature algorithm known as Speeded Up Robust Features (SURF), one of the most efficient approaches for feature extraction. With the proposed architecture, we can accomplish real time requirements of robotics vision, mainly to be applied in autonomous robotics

Identificação Visual de Caixas de Medicamentos Usando Features Correspondentes

This work uses computer vision algorithms related to features in the identification of medicine boxes for the visually impaired. The system is for people who have a disease that compromises his vision, hindering the identification of the correct medicine to be ingested. We use the camera, available in several popular devices such as computers, televisions and phones, to identify the box of the correct medicine and audio through the image, showing the poor information about the medication, such: as the dosage, indication and contraindications of the medication. We utilize a model of object detection using algorithms to identify the features in the boxes of drugs and playing the audio at the time of detection of feauteres in those boxes. Experiments carried out with 15 people show that where 93 % think that the system is useful and very helpful in identifying drugs for boxes. So, it is necessary to make use of this technology to help several people with visual impairments to take the right medicine, at the time indicated in advance by the physician

Soil erosion fragility assessment using an impact model and geographic information system

A study was taken in a 1566 ha watershed situated in the Capivara River basin, municipality of Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil. This environment is fragile and can be subjected to different forms of negative impacts, among them soil erosion by water. The main objective of the research was to develop a methodology for the assessment of soil erosion fragility at the various different watershed positions, using the geographic information system ILWIS version 3.3 for Windows. An impact model was created to generate the soil's erosion fragility plan, based on four indicators of fragility to water erosion: land use and cover, slope, percentage of soil fine sand and accumulated water flow. Thematic plans were generated in a geographic information system (GIS) environment. First, all the variables, except land use and cover, were described by continuous numerical plans in a raster structure. The land use and cover plan was also represented by numerical values associated with the weights attributed to each class, starting from a pairwise comparison matrix and using the analytical hierarchy process. A final field check was done to record evidence of erosive processes in the areas indicated as presenting the highest levels of fragility, i.e., sites with steep slopes, high percentage of soil fine sand, tendency to accumulate surface water flow, and sites of pastureland. The methodology used in the environmental problems diagnosis of the study area can be employed at places with similar relief, soil and climatic conditions.

A influência da poluição difusa e do regime hidrológico peculiar do semiárido na qualidade da água de um reservatório tropical

In semiarid region of northeast Brazil, the majority of reservoirs used for public supply has suffered degradation of water quality affected by diffuse pollution from agricultural and livestock areas of the watershed and by hydrologic regime peculiar to the region, characterized by a rainy season with higher volumes stored in reservoirs and a dry season with a reduction in water level due to high evaporation and increase of eutrophication. The Dourado reservoir, located in Currais Novos city, semiarid region of Rio Grande do Norte state, is one example of a water supply reservoir that can have degradation of water quality and impracticability of their use, due to the high external input of nutrients from non-point sources of watershed during the rainy season and increasing of eutrophication due to decrease the stored volume during the dry period. This study aimed to investigate and quantify diffuse pollution and the hydrologic regime of semiarid region in order to establish standards regarding the water quality of Dourado reservoir. The study period was between the months of May 2011 to March 2012. The diffuse pollution was quantified in terms of watershed from the mass balance of phosphorus in the reservoir, as in relation to areas under different types of land use within the riparian zone of the reservoir from the assessment of soil chemical properties and losses of phosphorus in each area. The influence of hydrological regime on water quality of the reservoir was evaluated from the monthly monitoring of the morphometric, meteorological and limnological features throughout the study period. The results showed that the reservoir has received a high load of phosphorus coming from the drainage basin and presents itself as a system able to retain some of that load tributary, giving an upward trend of the eutrophication process. Diffuse pollution by nutrients from areas under different types of land use within the riparian zone of the reservoir was higher in areas under the influence of livestock, being this area considered a potential diffuse source of nutrients to the reservoir. Regarding the water regime during the rainy season the reservoir was characterized by high concentrations of nutrients and small algal biomass, while in the dry season the reduction of volume and increase of the water retention time of the reservoir, contributing to the excessive growth algal biomass, favoring an increase in eutrophication and deterioration of water quality. In synthesis the water quality of Dourado reservoir is directed by diffuse pollution coming from the drainage basin and the hydrological regime of the peculiar semiarid region, where the rainy season is characterized by high input of allochthonous compounds from the tributaries and erosion of the soil in the reservoir riparian zone, and the dry season characterized by reducing the storage volume due to high evaporation, high residence time of water and consequent degradation of water quality due to the increase of eutrophication process

Comparison of Botryosphaeran production by the ascomyceteous fungus Botryosphaeria sp., grown on different carbohydrate carbon sources, and their partial structural features

The influence of glucose concentration and other carbohydrates (monosaccharides: fructose, galactose, mannose; polyols: mannitol and sorbitol; disaccharides: lactose, sucrose and commercial sucrose; and industrial sugarcane molasses) were compared as sole carbon sources for the production of Botryosphaeran, an exopolysaccharide (EPS) produced by Botryosphaeria sp. The optimum glucose concentration for EPS production was 50 g 1(-1). With the exception of mannitol, the fungus produced EPS on all carbon sources studied, with highest yields occurring with sucrose followed by glucose. All EPS showed exclusively glucose after acid hydrolysis and monosaccharide analysis. FTIR spectroscopy demonstrated the presence of beta-anomers indicating that all the EPS produced by Botryosphaeria sp. on the different carbon sources were essentially of the beta-D-glucan type.

Ultrastructural features in the epididymis of the dog (Canis familiaris, L.)

The ultrastructure of the epididymal duct of the dog is described in this paper. The epididymis was divided into three morphofunctional segments: initial, middle and terminal. The cellular population of the lining epithelium is formed from principal, apical, basal and clear cells. The peritubular stroma and the tubular interstitium surrounding the epithelium are also described. The outcome is compared to the description made in other species of mammals.