Atmospheric and oceanic contributions to irreducible forecast uncertainty of Arctic surface climate

Uncertainty of Arctic seasonal to interannual predictions arising from model errors and initial state uncertainty has been widely discussed in the literature, whereas the irreducible forecast uncertainty (IFU) arising from the chaoticity of the climate system has received less attention. However, IFU provides important insights into the mechanisms through which predictability is lost, and hence can inform prioritization of model development and observations deployment. Here, we characterize how internal oceanic and surface atmospheric heat fluxes contribute to IFU of Arctic sea ice and upper ocean heat content in an Earth system model by analyzing a set of idealized ensemble prediction experiments. We find that atmospheric and oceanic heat flux are often equally important for driving unpredictable Arctic-wide changes in sea ice and surface water temperatures, and hence contribute equally to IFU. Atmospheric surface heat flux tends to dominate Arctic-wide changes for lead times of up to a year, whereas oceanic heat flux tends to dominate regionally and on interannual time scales. There is in general a strong negative covariance between surface heat flux and ocean vertical heat flux at depth, and anomalies of lateral ocean heat transport are wind-driven, which suggests that the unpredictable oceanic heat flux variability is mainly forced by the atmosphere. These results are qualitatively robust across different initial states, but substantial variations in the amplitude of IFU exist. We conclude that both atmospheric variability and the initial state of the upper ocean are key ingredients for predictions of Arctic surface climate on seasonal to interannual time scales.

One step forward, and two steps back: women and career progression in academia during times of uncertainty

While there is an extensive and still growing body of literature on women in academia and the challenges they encounter in career progression, there is little research on their experience specifically within a business school setting. In this study, we attempt to address this gap and examine the experiences and career development of female academics in a business school and how these are impacted by downsizing programmes. To this end, an exploratory case study is conducted. The findings of this study show that female business school academics experience numerous challenges in terms of promotion and development, networking, and the multiple and conflicting demands placed upon them. As a result, the lack of visibility seems to be a pertinent issue in terms of their career progression. Our data also demonstrates that that, paradoxically, during periods of downsizing women become more visible and thus vulnerable to layoffs as a consequence of the challenges and pressures created in their environment during this process. In this paper, we argue that this heightened visibility, and being subject to possible layoffs, further reproduces inequality regimes in academia.

Self-concept clarity and compulsive Internet use: the role of preference for virtual interactions and employment status in British and North-American samples

Background and Aims Compulsive Internet Use (CIU) describes a maladaptive relationship with the Internet characterised by loss of control and conflict. Although also affecting adults, most studies use teenage samples, and theoretical development on risk factors is scarce. According to Davis (2001), the social connectivity function of the Internet is key in identifying traits associated with CIU. Since Self-Concept Clarity (SCC) is strongly related to social anxiety, and virtual interactions allow “self-edition”, we hypothesized that individuals low in SCC could choose virtual interactions as safer alternative to satisfy their social needs. This could in turn increase the risk of CIU. Building on a previous study, we also expected CIU to be more harmful in the unemployed. Methods We collected samples from the UK (N = 532) and US (N = 502) with equal distribution of employed and unemployed individuals. We ran Measurement Invariance tests to confirm that the constructs were equivalent across countries. Subsequently, we conducted mediation and moderation analysis to test our hypothesis with Multigroup Confirmatory Factor Analysis. Results Measurement Invariance was confirmed. The relationship between SCC and CIU was partially mediated by preference of virtual interactions in both countries. This preference was significantly related to lower social support. Short term unemployment seemed to accentuate the negative impact of CIU on life satisfaction in both countries, although only marginally significantly in the US. The unemployed reported significantly lower levels of life satisfaction. Conclusion We demonstrated that SCC is a key vulnerability factor to CIU in adults, and confirmed the additional risks for the unemployed.

Independent uncertainty estimates for coefficient based sea surface temperature retrieval from the Along-Trck Scanning Radiometer instruments

We establish a methodology for calculating uncertainties in sea surface temperature estimates from coefficient based satellite retrievals. The uncertainty estimates are derived independently of in-situ data. This enables validation of both the retrieved SSTs and their uncertainty estimate using in-situ data records. The total uncertainty budget is comprised of a number of components, arising from uncorrelated (eg. noise), locally systematic (eg. atmospheric), large scale systematic and sampling effects (for gridded products). The importance of distinguishing these components arises in propagating uncertainty across spatio-temporal scales. We apply the method to SST data retrieved from the Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) and validate the results for two different SST retrieval algorithms, both at a per pixel level and for gridded data. We find good agreement between our estimated uncertainties and validation data. This approach to calculating uncertainties in SST retrievals has a wider application to data from other instruments and retrieval of other geophysical variables.

Sampling uncertainty in gridded sea surface temperature products and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Area Coverage (GAC) data

Sea surface temperature (SST) data are often provided as gridded products, typically at resolutions of order 0.05 degrees from satellite observations to reduce data volume at the request of data users and facilitate comparison against other products or models. Sampling uncertainty is introduced in gridded products where the full surface area of the ocean within a grid cell cannot be fully observed because of cloud cover. In this paper we parameterise uncertainties in SST as a function of the percentage of clear-sky pixels available and the SST variability in that subsample. This parameterisation is developed from Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) data, but is applicable to all gridded L3U SST products at resolutions of 0.05-0.1 degrees, irrespective of instrument and retrieval algorithm, provided that instrument noise propagated into the SST is accounted for. We also calculate the sampling uncertainty of ~0.04 K in Global Area Coverage (GAC) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) products, using related methods.

Institutional legacies and capabilities: work practices and employment relations in Portugal and Mozambique

This is a study of institutional change and continuity, comparing the trajectories followed by Mozambique and its formal colonial power Portugal in HRM, based on two surveys of firm level practices. The colonial power sought to extend the institutions of the metropole in the closing years of its rule, and despite all the adjustments and shocks that have accompanied Mozambique’s post-independence years, the country continues to retain institutional features and associated practices from the past. This suggests that there is a post-colonial impact on human resource management. The implications for HRM theory are that ambitious attempts at institutional substitution may have less dramatic effects than is commonly assumed. Indeed, we encountered remarkable similarities between the two countries in HRM practices, implying that features of supposedly fluid or less mature institutional frameworks (whether in Africa or the Mediterranean world) may be sustained for protracted periods of time, pressures to reform notwithstanding. This highlights the complexities of continuities which transcend formal rules; as post-colonial theories alert us, informal conventions and embedded discourse may result in the persistence of informal power and subordination, despite political and legal changes.

Bayesian analysis of uncertainty in the GlobCover 2009 land cover product at climate model grid scale

Land cover data derived from satellites are commonly used to prescribe inputs to models of the land surface. Since such data inevitably contains errors, quantifying how uncertainties in the data affect a model’s output is important. To do so, a spatial distribution of possible land cover values is required to propagate through the model’s simulation. However, at large scales, such as those required for climate models, such spatial modelling can be difficult. Also, computer models often require land cover proportions at sites larger than the original map scale as inputs, and it is the uncertainty in these proportions that this article discusses. This paper describes a Monte Carlo sampling scheme that generates realisations of land cover proportions from the posterior distribution as implied by a Bayesian analysis that combines spatial information in the land cover map and its associated confusion matrix. The technique is computationally simple and has been applied previously to the Land Cover Map 2000 for the region of England and Wales. This article demonstrates the ability of the technique to scale up to large (global) satellite derived land cover maps and reports its application to the GlobCover 2009 data product. The results show that, in general, the GlobCover data possesses only small biases, with the largest belonging to non–vegetated surfaces. In vegetated surfaces, the most prominent area of uncertainty is Southern Africa, which represents a complex heterogeneous landscape. It is also clear from this study that greater resources need to be devoted to the construction of comprehensive confusion matrices.

Family-friendly employment laws (re)assessed: the potential of care ethics

In light of various reforms in recent years, this article provides a (re)assessment of the broad package of family-friendly employment rights and relevant dispute resolution procedure now available to pregnant workers and working carers. It exposes how the realities of working life for many pregnant workers and carers and the long standing desire to promote gender equality in informal care-work remain at odds with the legal framework. An argument is presented in favour of an approach that, based upon the concept of care ethics, better engages with the impact of the provisions upon crucial interdependent care relationships.

Nothing is safe: intolerance of uncertainty is associated with compromised fear extinction learning

Extinction-resistant fear is considered to be a central feature of pathological anxiety. Here we sought to determine if individual differences in Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU), a potential risk factor for anxiety disorders, underlies compromised fear extinction. We tested this hypothesis by recording electrodermal activity in 38 healthy participants during fear acquisition and extinction. We assessed the temporality of fear extinction, by examining early and late extinction learning. During early extinction, low IU was associated with larger skin conductance responses to learned threat vs. safety cues, whereas high IU was associated with skin conductance responding to both threat and safety cues, but no cue discrimination. During late extinction, low IU showed no difference in skin conductance between learned threat and safety cues, whilst high IU predicted continued fear expression to learned threat, indexed by larger skin conductance to threat vs. safety cues. These findings suggest a critical role of uncertainty-based mechanisms in the maintenance of learned fear.

Moral uncertainty and permissibility: evaluating option sets

In this essay, we explore an issue of moral uncertainty: what we are permitted to do when we are unsure about which moral principles are correct. We develop a novel approach to this issue that incorporates important insights from previous work on moral uncertainty, while avoiding some of the difficulties that beset existing alternative approaches. Our approach is based on evaluating and choosing between option sets rather than particular conduct options. We show how our approach is particularly well-suited to address this issue of moral uncertainty with respect to agents that have credence in moral theories that are not fully consequentialist.

What is going on around here? Intolerance of uncertainty predicts threat generalization

Attending to stimuli that share perceptual similarity to learned threats is an adaptive strategy. However, prolonged threat generalization to cues signalling safety is considered a core feature of pathological anxiety. One potential factor that may sustain over-generalization is sensitivity to future threat uncertainty. To assess the extent to which Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU) predicts threat generalization, we recorded skin conductance in 54 healthy participants during an associative learning paradigm, where threat and safety cues varied in perceptual similarity. Lower IU was associated with stronger discrimination between threat and safety cues during acquisition and extinction. Higher IU, however, was associated with generalized responding to threat and safety cues during acquisition, and delayed discrimination between threat and safety cues during extinction. These results were specific to IU, over and above other measures of anxious disposition. These findings highlight: (1) a critical role of uncertainty-based mechanisms in threat generalization, and (2) IU as a potential risk factor for anxiety disorder development.

Working at night and work ability among nursing personnel: when precarious employment makes the difference

To test the association between night work and work ability, and verify whether the type of contractual employment has any influence over this association. Permanent workers (N = 642) and workers with precarious jobs (temporary contract or outsourced; N = 552) were interviewed and filled out questionnaires concerning work hours and work ability index. They were classified into: never worked at night, ex-night workers, currently working up to five nights, and currently working at least six nights/2-week span. After adjusting for socio-demography and work variables, current night work was significantly associated with inadequate WAI (vs. day work with no experience in night work) only for precarious workers (OR 2.00, CI 1.01-3.95 and OR 1.85, CI 1.09-3.13 for those working up to five nights and those working at least six nights in 2 weeks, respectively). Unequal opportunities at work and little experience in night work among precarious workers may explain their higher susceptibility to night work.

Operations research/management science tools for integrating people with disabilities into employment. A study on Valencia`s Sheltered Work Centres for Disabled

People with disabilities have a right to a full life in every sense and one of those fundamental rights is the possibility to work. In this paper, the importance of social employment integration of disabled people is highlighted as one of the stakeholders to be satisfied by companies in the new framework that corporate social responsibility is constructing. The objective of the paper is to revise the benefits of some well-known operations research/management science tools that, if applied correctly, have a double positive impact on work accessibility and improved productivity. The responses collected from managers of Valencia`s ShelteredWork Centres for Disabled by means of a structured questionnaire are used to analyse the level of implementation of these tools and their impact depending on the type of centre, the kind of disability and other structural variables.

Quantum States Allowing Minimum Uncertainty Product of phi and L(z)

We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for states to have an arbitrarily small uncertainty product of the azimuthal angle phi and its canonical moment L(z). We illustrate our results with analytical examples.