Revision rules in the theory of evidence

Combination rules proposed so far in the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence, especially Dempster rule, rely on a basic assumption, that is, pieces of evidence being combined are considered to be on a par, i.e. play the same role. When a source of evidence is less reliable than another, it is possible to discount it and then a symmetric combination operation is still used. In the case of revision, the idea is to let prior knowledge of an agent be altered by some input information. The change problem is thus intrinsically asymmetric. Assuming the input information is reliable, it should be retained whilst the prior information should
be changed minimally to that effect. Although belief revision is already an important subfield of artificial intelligence, so far, it has been little addressed in evidence theory. In this paper, we define the notion of revision for the theory of evidence and propose several different revision rules, called the inner and outer
revisions, and a modified adaptive outer revision, which better corresponds to the idea of revision. Properties of these revision rules are also investigated.

Enabling Others in Social Work: Reflexivity and the Theory of Social Domains

This paper sets out a framework to structure reflexivity in social work practice. Based on the thinking of the sociologist, Derek Layder, it comprises five domains that impact on the individual and social life, namely: (i) psycho-biography – referring to a person’s unique experience throughout the life-course; (ii) situated activity – highlighting the impact of every day social interaction; (iii) social settings – addressing the role of organizations in social life; (iv) culture – covering the influence of attitudes, beliefs, tastes and ideas on symbolic meaning; and (v) politico-economy – alluding to the ramifications of political and economic forces on people’s lives. It is contended that power circulates throughout each domain as an enabling and constraining force. The paper then outlines a process for using the reflexive framework in ‘enabling’ activities such as practice learning, supervision, mentoring and coaching. By applying the framework in these contexts, it is argued that social workers can reflect critically on their role and develop emancipatory forms of practice.

Ecological dynamics of extinct species in empty habitat networks. 1. The role of habitat pattern and quantity, stochasticity and dispersal

We examined a remnant host plant (Primula veris L.) habitat network that was last inhabited by the rare butterfly Hamearis lucina L. in north Wales in 1943, to assess the relative contribution of several spatial parameters to its regional extinction. We first examined relationships between P. veris characteristics and H. lucina eggs in surviving H. lucina populations, and used these to predict the suitability and potential carrying capacity of the habitat network in north Wales. This resulted in an estimate of roughly 4500 eggs (ca 227 adults). We developed a discrete space, discrete time metapopulation model to evaluate the relative contribution of dispersal distance, habitat and environmental stochasticity as possible causes of extinction. We simulated the potential persistence of the butterfly in the current network as well as in three artificial (historical and present) habitat networks that differed in the quantity (current and X3) and fragmentation of the habitat (current and aggregated). We identified that reduced habitat quantity and increased isolation would have increased the probability of regional extinction, in conjunction with environmental stochasticity and H. lucina's dispersal distance. This general trend did not change in a qualitative manner when we modified the ability of dispersing females to stay in, and find suitable habitats (by changing the size of the grid cells used in the model). Contrary to most metapopulation model predictions, system persistence declined with increasing migration rate, suggesting that the mortality of migrating individuals in fragmented landscapes may pose significant risks to system-wide persistence. Based on model predictions for the present landscape we argue that a major programme of habitat restoration would be required for a re-established metapopulation to persist for > 100 years.

Ecological dynamics of extinct species in empty habitat networks. 2. The role of host plant dynamics

This paper explores the relative effects of host plant dynamics and butterfly-related parameters on butterfly persistence. It considers an empty habitat network where a rare butterfly (Cupido minimus) became extinct in 1939 in part of its historical range in north Wales, UK. Surviving populations of the butterfly in southern Britain were visited to assess use of its host plant (Anthyllis vulneraria) in order to calibrate habitat suitability and carrying capacity in the empty network in north Wales. These data were used to deduce that only a portion ( similar to 19%) of the host plant network from north Wales was likely to be highly suitable for oviposition. Nonetheless, roughly 65,460 eggs (3273 adult equivalents) could be expected to be laid in north Wales, were the empty network to be populated at the same levels as observed on comparable plants in surviving populations elsewhere. Simulated metapopulations of C. minimus in the empty network revealed that time to extinction and patch occupancy were significantly influenced by carrying capacity, butterfly mean dispersal distance and environmental stochasticity, although for most reasonable parameter values, the model system persisted. Simulation outputs differed greatly when host plant dynamics was incorporated into the modelled butterfly dynamics. Cupido minimus usually went extinct when host plant were at low densities. In these simulations host plant dynamics appeared to be the most important determinant of the butterfly's regional extirpation. Modelling the outcome of a reintroduction programme to C. minimus variation at high quality locations, revealed that 65% of systems survived at least 100 years. Given the current amount of resources of the north Wales landscape, the persistence of C. minimus under a realistic reintroduction programme has a good chance of being successful, if carried out in conjunction with a host plant management programme.

Higher effort-reward imbalance and lower job control predict exit from the labour market at the age of 61 years or younger: Evidence from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

Background: We examined whether higher effort-reward imbalance (ERI) and lower job control are associated with exit from the labour market. 

Methods: There were 1263 participants aged 50-74 years from the English Longitudinal Study on Ageing with data on working status and work-related psychosocial factors at baseline (wave 2; 2004-2005), and working status at follow-up (wave 5; 2010-2011). Psychosocial factors at work were assessed using a short validated version of ERI and job control. An allostatic load index was formed using 13 biological parameters. Depressive symptoms were measured using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. Exit from the labour market was defined as not working in the labour market when 61 years old or younger in 2010-2011. 

Results: Higher ERI OR=1.62 (95% CI 1.01 to 2.61, p=0.048) predicted exit from the labour market independent of age, sex, education, occupational class, allostatic load and depression. Job control OR=0.60 (95% CI 0.42 to 0.85, p=0.004) was associated with exit from the labour market independent of age, sex, education, occupation and depression. The association of higher effort OR=1.32 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.73, p=0.045) with exit from the labour market was independent of age, sex and depression but attenuated to non-significance when additionally controlling for socioeconomic measures. Reward was not related to exit from the labour market. 

Conclusions: Stressful work conditions can be a risk for exiting the labour market before the age of 61 years. Neither socioeconomic position nor allostatic load and depressive symptoms seem to explain this association.

An investigation into the factors influencing tooth brushing behaviour amongst school children living in Northern Ireland: An application of the Theory of Planned Behaviour.

Background: Northern Ireland has the worst oral health in the UK and its children have among the highest levels of tooth decay in Europe (DHSSPS, 2007).
Aim: The aim of this study is to investigate the factors influencing tooth brushing behaviour among Year 6 primary schoolchildren using the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB).
Method: Seven semi-structured focus groups involving 56 children were conducted during which children were asked questions about the factors that influence whether or not they brush their teeth. Thematic analysis was used with the purpose of eliciting the belief-based measures for all the TPB constructs.
Results: The findings suggest that children are knowledgeable about their teeth and are aware of the importance of maintaining good oral health; although a number of barriers to consistent tooth brushing exist.
Discussion: The findings will be used to inform stage 2 of the research project; questionnaire development to identify the factors influencing young people’s motivations to improve their tooth brushing behaviour and to assess their relative importance.

Differential ecological impacts of an invader and a native under environmental change are revealed by comparative functional responses.

Predicting the ecological impacts of damaging invasive species under relevant environmental contexts is a major challenge, for which comparative functional responses (the relationship between resource availability and consumer uptake rate) have great potential. Here, the functional responses of Gammarus pulex, an ecologically damaging invader in freshwaters in Ireland and other islands, were compared with those of a native trophic equivalent Gammarus duebeni celticus. Experiments were conducted at two dissolved oxygen concentrations (80 and 50 % saturation), representative of anthropogenic water quality changes, using two larval prey, blackfly (Simuliidae spp.) and mayfly (Baetis rhodani). Overall, G. pulex had higher Type II functional responses and hence predatory impacts than G. d. celticus and the functional responses of both predators were reduced by lowered oxygen concentration. However, this reduction was of lower magnitude for the invader as compared to the native. Further, the invader functional response at low oxygen was comparable to that of the native at high oxygen. Attack rates of the two predators were similar, with low oxygen reducing these attack rates, but this effect occurred more strongly for blackfly than mayfly prey. Handling times were significantly lower for the invader compared with the native, and significantly higher at low oxygen, however, the effect of lowered oxygen on handling times was minimal for the invader and pronounced for the native. Maximum feeding rates were significantly greater for the invader compared with the native, and significantly reduced at low oxygen, with this effect again lesser for the invader as compared to the native. The greater functional responses of the invader corroborate with its impacts on recipient macroinvertebrate communities when it replaces the native. Further, our experiments predict that the impact of the invader will be less affected than the native under altered oxygen regimes driven by anthropogenic influences.

Use of an earthworm lysosomal biomarker for the ecological assessment of pollution from an industrial plastics fire

A low-cost field technique employing retention of the dye neutral-red by lysosomes in coelomocyte cells taken from earthworms (Lumbricus castaneus), was used as a means of assessing the ecological effects (if any) of an industrial accident. Earthworms and soil samples were collected at the site of a large industrial plastics fire in Thetford, UK along a 200 m transect leading from the factory perimeter fence, over a layer of molten plastic impregnated soil and into the surrounding forest. Coelomic fluid extracted from the earthworms was dye-loaded with neutral-red and lysosomal leaking observed. Metal residues in soil and earthworms were found to be highly elevated close to the factory perimeter and to rapidly drop to background levels within the first 50 m of the transect. Coelomocyte cells taken from earthworms adjacent to the factory perimeter showed the shortest period of neutral-red retention (2 min); cells taken from worms further into the surrounding forest had a longer retention time (12 min), whilst cells taken from worms from a control site showed even greater retention times (25 min). Thus, the neutral-red retention times correlated negatively with measured residues of heavy metals in the earthworms, the higher the body metal concentration the shorter the retention time. This field trial has demonstrated the validity of using an in vitro cellular biomarker technique for use in biological impact assessment along gradients of contamination.

Comparative functional responses predict the invasiveness and ecological impacts of alien herbivorous snails.

Understanding determinants of the invasiveness and ecological impacts of alien species is amongst the most sought-after and urgent research questions in ecology. Several studies have shown the value of comparing the functional responses (FRs) of alien and native predators towards native prey, however, the technique is under-explored with herbivorous alien species and as a predictor of invasiveness as distinct from ecological impact. Here, in China, we conducted a mesocosm experiment to compare the FRs among three herbivorous snail species: the golden apple snail, Pomacea canaliculata, a highly invasive and high impact alien listed in “100 of the World's Worst Invasive Alien Species”; Planorbarius corneus, a non-invasive, low impact alien; and the Chinese native snail, Bellamya aeruginosa, when feeding on four locally occurring plant species. Further, by using a numerical response equation, we modelled the population dynamics of the snail consumers. For standard FR parameters, we found that the invasive and damaging alien snail had the highest “attack rates” a, shortest “handling times” h and also the highest estimated maximum feeding rates, 1/hT, whereas the native species had the lowest attack rates, longest handling times and lowest maximum feeding rates. The non-invasive, low impact alien species had consistently intermediate FR parameters. The invasive alien species had higher population growth potential than the native snail species, whilst that of the non-invasive alien species was intermediate. Thus, while the comparative FR approach has been proposed as a reliable method for predicting the ecological impacts of invasive predators, our results further suggest that comparative FRs could extend to predict the invasiveness and ecological impacts of alien herbivores and should be explored in other taxa and trophic groups to determine the general utility of the approach.

Intentions Toward Physical Activity and Resting Behavior in Pregnant Women: Using the Theory of Planned Behavior Framework in a Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women are recommended to 1) perform daily moderate-intensity physical activity and 2) limit the amount of sedentary time. Many women do not meet these recommendations. Reduced physical activity and increased sedentary behavior may result from women actively intending to rest during pregnancy. The Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) has been used to assess attitudes (e.g., positive/negative beliefs), subjective norms (e.g., perception of others' views), perceived behavioral control (PBC) (e.g., self-efficacy), and intention toward exercising while pregnant but has not been applied to aspects pertaining to resting during pregnancy.

METHODS: Pregnant women (n = 345) completed a cross-sectional questionnaire that included two TPB Questionnaires where the target behaviors were 1) being physically active and 2) resting. Bootstrapped paired t tests, ANOVA, and linear hierarchal regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of intentions and whether intentions toward the two behaviors varied at different stages of pregnancy.

RESULTS: As women progressed in their pregnancy, their attitude, PBC, and intention toward being physically active all significantly declined. A positive attitude, subjective norms, and intention toward resting all significantly increased with the advancing trimester. Self-reported health conditions predicted lower intention for physical activity but not for resting.

DISCUSSION: The significantly inverse relationship between physical activity and resting across time suggests that women feel they should focus on one behavior at the expense of the other. Finding that women generally do not perceive these behaviors as mutually compatible has implications in strategizing as to how to encourage women to be active during pregnancy.

The Riemann-Hilbert method applied to the theory of orthogonal polynomials

Doutoramento em Matemática

The use of biomarkers to diagnose the ecological impact of pollutants in Mediterranean rivers

Um assunto que requer atenção é a avaliação ecológica da qualidade da água de ecossistemas de água doce. Uma abordagem que surge como promissora é a biomonitorização baseada em biomarcadores, porque pode avaliar a saúde dos organismos e obter sinais de alerta precoce acerca dos riscos ambientais. Até agora, porém, o uso de biomarcadores em espécies de invertebrados, para diagnosticar danos ecológicos nos rios, é escasso. Por essa razão, existe uma necessidade urgente de desenvolver biomarcadores nas principais espécies de macroinvertebrados dos ecossistemas fluviais que são alvo de estudo. Esta tese tem como objectivo averiguar se as respostas in situ, aliadas aos biomarcadores, podem ser um método viável para avaliar os danos ecológicos de contaminantes em ecossistemas de água doce. Numa primeira fase, os biomarcadores foram usados para averiguar os mecanismos fisiológicos de adaptação genética de clones de Daphnia magna ao pesticida organofosforado fenitrothion. Numa segunda fase, os biomarcadores foram usados como ferramentas de diagnóstico de poluição em zonas ribeirinhas. Estes estudos foram realizados com três espécies-chave de macroinvertebrados: Daphnia magna, Corbicula fluminea e Hydropsyche exocellata, nos rios Besós e Llobregat e no Delta do rio Ebro (NE Espanha). Além disso, foram realizados com animais capturados nos rios, ou com ensaios de transplantes, e foram complementados com índices biológicos de macroinvertebrados e análises químicas da água e dos animais. Como os contaminantes químicos têm vários modos toxicológicos de acção e, portanto, afectam várias respostas bioquímicas dos organismos, foram analisados nas três espécies um conjunto de biomarcadores pertencentes a diferentes vias metabólicas. A abordagem experimental indica que o uso combinado de biomarcadores e outras medidas, tais como índices biológicos e testes in situ, contribui para diagnosticar os efeitos prejudiciais de contaminantes nas comunidades ribeirinhas.

Contributions to the theory of maximum entropy estimation for ill-posed models

As técnicas estatísticas são fundamentais em ciência e a análise de regressão linear é, quiçá, uma das metodologias mais usadas. É bem conhecido da literatura que, sob determinadas condições, a regressão linear é uma ferramenta estatística poderosíssima. Infelizmente, na prática, algumas dessas condições raramente são satisfeitas e os modelos de regressão tornam-se mal-postos, inviabilizando, assim, a aplicação dos tradicionais métodos de estimação. Este trabalho apresenta algumas contribuições para a teoria de máxima entropia na estimação de modelos mal-postos, em particular na estimação de modelos de regressão linear com pequenas amostras, afetados por colinearidade e outliers. A investigação é desenvolvida em três vertentes, nomeadamente na estimação de eficiência técnica com fronteiras de produção condicionadas a estados contingentes, na estimação do parâmetro ridge em regressão ridge e, por último, em novos desenvolvimentos na estimação com máxima entropia. Na estimação de eficiência técnica com fronteiras de produção condicionadas a estados contingentes, o trabalho desenvolvido evidencia um melhor desempenho dos estimadores de máxima entropia em relação ao estimador de máxima verosimilhança. Este bom desempenho é notório em modelos com poucas observações por estado e em modelos com um grande número de estados, os quais são comummente afetados por colinearidade. Espera-se que a utilização de estimadores de máxima entropia contribua para o tão desejado aumento de trabalho empírico com estas fronteiras de produção. Em regressão ridge o maior desafio é a estimação do parâmetro ridge. Embora existam inúmeros procedimentos disponíveis na literatura, a verdade é que não existe nenhum que supere todos os outros. Neste trabalho é proposto um novo estimador do parâmetro ridge, que combina a análise do traço ridge e a estimação com máxima entropia. Os resultados obtidos nos estudos de simulação sugerem que este novo estimador é um dos melhores procedimentos existentes na literatura para a estimação do parâmetro ridge. O estimador de máxima entropia de Leuven é baseado no método dos mínimos quadrados, na entropia de Shannon e em conceitos da eletrodinâmica quântica. Este estimador suplanta a principal crítica apontada ao estimador de máxima entropia generalizada, uma vez que prescinde dos suportes para os parâmetros e erros do modelo de regressão. Neste trabalho são apresentadas novas contribuições para a teoria de máxima entropia na estimação de modelos mal-postos, tendo por base o estimador de máxima entropia de Leuven, a teoria da informação e a regressão robusta. Os estimadores desenvolvidos revelam um bom desempenho em modelos de regressão linear com pequenas amostras, afetados por colinearidade e outliers. Por último, são apresentados alguns códigos computacionais para estimação com máxima entropia, contribuindo, deste modo, para um aumento dos escassos recursos computacionais atualmente disponíveis.