How should pathogen transmission be modelled?

Host-pathogen models are essential for designing strategies for managing disease threats to humans, wild animals and domestic animals. The behaviour of these models is greatly affected by the way in which transmission between infected and susceptible hosts is modelled. Since host-pathogen models were first developed at the beginning of the 20th century, the 'mass action' assumption has almost always been used for transmission. Recently, however, it has been suggested that mass action has often been modelled wrongly. Alternative models of transmission are beginning to appear, as are empirical tests of transmission dynamics.

Ecology, shell morphology, anatomy and sperm ultrastructure of the caenogastropod Pyrgula annulata, with a discussion of the relationship between the 'Pyrgulidae' and Caspian and Baikalian rissooideans

The composition of the Pyrgulidae and its relationships to other member families of the caenogastropod superfamily Rissooidea are examined after a consideration of new anatomical (including gross anatomy, sperm ultrastructure), conchological (including protoconch features), ecological, biogeographical and palaeontological data and a re-evaluation of existing literature. Pyrgulidae can be distinguished from hydrobiids unequivocally only with the aid of the radula. Sperm ultrastructural features suggest a very close relationship between the Pyrgulidae, the Hydrobiidae and the Bithyniidae (in fact no family-diagnostic sperm characters can be found to separate these three taxa). Based upon neontological and fossil evidence it is likely that pyrgulids represent a Miocene offshoot from a paratethyal hydrobiid lineage. Pyrgulids may also represent the stock from which the baicaliids arose, in which case the Pyrgulidae must be considered a paraphyletic group. The huge biogeographic gap between the Caspian Sea and Lake Baikal is to some extent bridged by the finding of a Neogene pyrgulid from the Altai Mountains. An alternative scenario for the origin of baicaliids is presented.

Combination therapy with tacrolimus and anti-thymocyte globulin for the treatment of steroid-resistant acute graft-versus-host disease developing during cyclosporine prophylaxis

We report our experience with the combination of anti-thymocyte globulin (ATGAM) and tacrolimus in the treatment of 20 patients with steroid refractory and dependent acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) transplanted between August 1996 and February 2000. All patients received cyclosporine-based GVHD prophylaxis. Thirteen patients developed a maximum of grade TV, five grade III and two grade II acute GVHD, with 15 patients being refractory to steroids and five dependent on steroids. Patients were treated with ATGAM (15 mg/kg for 5 d) and tacrolimus (0.025-0.1 mg/kg/d) in addition to continuation of their high-dose steroids and cessation of their cyclosporine. Within 28 d of treatment, we observed eight complete responses (CR), six partial responses (PR) and six with no response. Overall response (CR + PR) was predicted by GVHD severity. Infectious complications occurred in 80% of patients. The median survival was 86.5 d (range, 21-1081 d) with 35% of patients remaining alive, Survival following combination therapy was significantly more likely in men (P < 0.001), skin-only GVHD (P = 0.027), less severe GVHD (P = 0.048), and in responders to tacrolimus and ATGAM (P< 0.001). In conclusion, concurrent introduction of ATGAM and tacrolimus is a promising therapeutic combination for GVHD refractory to steroids and cyclosporine.

Granulocyte-colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF)-primed allogeneic bone marrow: significantly less graft-versus-host disease and comparable engraftment to G-CSF-mobilized peripheral blood stem cells

Prospective studies have shown rapid engraftment using granulocyte-colony-stimulating factor-mobilized peripheral blood stem cells (G-PBSCs) for allogeneic transplantation, though the risks for graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) may be increased. It was hypothesized that the use of G-CSF to prime bone marrow (GBM) would allow rapid engraftment without increased risk for GVHD compared with G-PBSC. Patients were randomized to receive G-BM or G-PBSCs for allogeneic stem cell transplantation. The study was designed (beta < .8) to detect a difference in the incidence of chronic GVHD of 33% ( < .05). The plan was to recruit 100 patients and to conduct an interim analysis when the 6-month follow-up point was reached for the first 50 patients. Fifty-seven consecutive patients were recruited (G-BM, n = 28; G-PBSC, n = 29). Patients in the G-PBSC group received 3-fold more CD34(+) and 9-fold more CD3(+) cells. Median times to neutrophil (G-BM, 16 days; G-PBSC, 14 days; P < .1) and platelet engraftment (G-BM, 14 days; G-PBSC, 12 days; P < .1) were similar. The use of G-PBSC was associated with steroid refractory acute GVHD (G-BM, 0%; G-PBSC, 32%; P < .001), chronic GVHD (G-BM, 22%; G-PBSC, 80%; P < .02), and prolonged requirement for immunosuppressive therapy (G-BM, 173 days; G-PBSC, 680 days; P < .009). Survival was similar for the 2 groups. Compared with G-PBSC the use of G-BM resulted in comparable engraftment, reduced severity of acute GVHD, and less subsequent chronic GVHD. (Blood. 2001;98:3186-3191) (C) 2001 by The American Society of Hematology.

Effects of phosphonate and salicylic acid treatments on anthracnose disease development and ripening of 'Kensington Pride' mango fruit

This study investigated treatment of mango (Mangifera indica L.) fruit with 2 host defence-promoting compounds for suppression of anthracnose disease (Colletotrichum gloeosporioides). Cultivar 'Kensington Pride' fruit were treated at concentrations of up to 1000 mg/L with either potassium phosphonate or salicylic acid. Applications were by various combinations of pre- and postharvest dips and vacuum infiltration. Postharvest treatments at up to 2000 mg/L salicylic acid were evaluated in a second fruiting season. Fruit were either uninoculated or inoculated with the fungal pathogen. Colour, firmness and disease-severity were assessed during shelf life at 23 degreesC. There were no significant (P>0.05) effects of potassium phosphonate or salicylic acid on anthracnose disease severity in the first season. Moreover, phosphonate or salicylic acid treatment did not significantly affect fruit colour or firmness changes. There were significant (P

Influence of fungal pathogens and environmental conditions on disease severity, flower fall and desiccation of harvested Geraldton waxflower - 2. Studies with commercial packages

Relationships were examined between environmental conditions mediated by packaging and handling and the deterioration of harvested Geraldton waxflower cv. 'Fortune Cookie'. Disease severity plus flower and leaf drop caused by inoculation with Botrytis cinerea were reduced by lowering handling temperatures to 0, 5 or 5/20 degreesC alternated daily, versus 20 degreesC. They were also reduced by inhibition of ethylene action with a silver thiosulfate pulse pretreatment. Additionally, treatments that enhanced water loss, such as packing dry, keeping forced air-cooling holes open and strategic placement of extra ventilation holes may also reduce disease severity and flower plus leaf fall. Inclusion of KMnO4-based Bloomfresh ethylene scrubbing sachets in packages did not reduce disease severity or lessen flower plus leaf fall. Thus, deterioration of waxflower packaged in commercial cartons can be minimised by keeping temperatures low, packing plant material dry, use of cartons with strategically placed ventilation holes and/or pretreatment with silver thiosulfate.

Characterisation of New Zealand isolates of infectious bursal disease virus

Isolates of infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV) were obtained from domestic poultry in New Zealand in 1997 and 1998. An in-vivo pathogenicity study carried out in specific pathogen free (SPF) chickens demonstrated the low virulence of one of the virus isolates. The nucleotide sequences of the hypervariable region of the VP2 gene of two isolates were determined and compared with published sequences of strains from other countries. The deduced amino acid sequence of the two New Zealand IBDV isolates showed 100% identity with each other, suggesting that little genetic drift had occurred. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the New Zealand isolates were more closely related to two attenuated IBDV strains (Cu1 and PBG98) than to classical (STC and 52/70), very virulent (DV86), variant (variant E) or Australian (002-73) strains. The results support the hypothesis that an attenuated strain of the virus was inadvertently introduced into the NZ poultry population in 1993.

Telehealth and the diagnosis and management of cardiac disease

The financial and personal burden of chronic cardiac disease is high. Costs are likely to increase over the next few decades. Promising applications of telehealth have appeared in the diagnosis and management of cardiac disease and there are indications that telehealth services can improve the management of chronic cardiac disease as well as extend services to remote and rural populations. Telehealth has been applied to the capture of symptoms of cardiac disease with electrocardiography and echocardiography, to the management and rehabilitation of recently discharged patients, and in peer-to-peer consultation where remote expertise can facilitate diagnosis. Telehealth promises cost reductions in service delivery, although there is a need for properly controlled cost-effectiveness trials to underpin telehealth with a firm evidence base.

Valuing ecological functions of biodiversity in changbaishan mountain biosphere reserve in northeast china

Conservation of biodiversity can generate considerable indirect economic value and this is being increasingly recognized in China. For a forest ecosystem type of a nature reserve, the most important of its values are its ecological functions which provide human beings and other living things with beneficial environmental services. These services include water conservancy, soil protection, CO2 fixation and O-2 release, nutrient cycling, pollutant decomposition, and disease and pest control. Based on a case study in Changbaishan Mountain Biosphere Reserve in Northeast China, this paper provides a monetary valuation of these services by using opportunity cost and alternative cost methods. Using such an approach, this reserve is valued at 510.11 million yuan (USD 61.68 mill.) per year, 10 times higher than the opportunity cost (51.78 mill. yuan/ha.a) for regular timber production. While China has heeded United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP)'s call for economic evaluation of ecological functions, the assessment techniques used need to be improved in China and in the West for reasons mentioned.

Effect of propionyl-L-carnitine on exercise performance in peripheral arterial disease

Background: Supplementation with propionyl-L-carnitine (PLC) may be of use in improving the exercise capacity of people with peripheral arterial disease. Methods: After a 2-wk exercise familiarization phase, seven subjects displaying intermittent claudication were studied over a 12-wk period consisting of three 4-wk phases, baseline (B), supplementation (S), and placebo (P). PLC was supplemented at 2 g(.)d(-1), and subjects were blinded to the order of supplementation. Unilateral calf strength and endurance were assessed weekly. Walking performance was assessed at the end of each phase using an incremental protocol, during which respiratory gases were collected. Results: Although there was not a significant increase in maximal walking time (similar to 14%) in the whole group, walking time improved to a greater extent than the individual baseline coefficient of variation in four of the seven subjects. The changes in walking performance were correlated with changes in the respiratory exchange ratio both at steady state (r = 0.59) and maximal exercise (r = 0.79). Muscle strength increased significantly from 695 +/- 198 N to 812 +/- 249 N by the end of S. Changes in calf strength from B to S were modestly related to changes in walking performance (r = 0.56). No improvements in calf endurance were detected throughout the study. Conclusions: These preliminary data suggest that, in addition to walking performance, muscle strength can be increased in PAD patients after 4 wk of supplementation with propionyl-L-carnitine.

Mark-recapture may reveal more about ecology than about population trends: Demography of a threatened ghost bat (Macroderma gigas) population

Since European settlement in Australia, the geographical range of ghost bats (Macroderma gigas) has contracted northwards. Ghost bats are thought to occur in disjunct populations with little interpopulation migration, raising concerns over the current status and future viability of the southernmost colony, which has also been threatened by mining activity. To address these concerns, demographic parameters of the southernmost colony were estimated from a mark-recapture study conducted during 1975-1981. Female bats gave birth to a single young in late spring, but only 40% (22-70%, 95% CI) of females bred in their second year, increasing to 93% (87-97%, 95% CI) for females greater than or equal to 2 years old. Sixty-five percent of juveniles caught were female. Annual adult survival ranged between 0.57-0.77 for females and 0.43-0.66 for males, and was lowest over winter-spring and greatest in autumn-winter. Juvenile survival for the first year ranged between 0.35-0.46 for females and 0.29-0.42 for males. Adult survival varied among seasons, was negatively associated with rainfall, but was not associated with temperature beyond being lower in late winter. Poor survival may result from the inferior daytime roosts that bats must use if water seepage forces them to leave their normal roosts. Although these age-specific rates of fecundity and survival suggested a declining population, mark-recapture estimates of the population trend indicated stability over the study period. Counts at daytime roosts also suggested a population decline, but were considered unreliable because of an increasing tendency of bats to avoid detection. It is therefore likely that some assumptions in estimating survival were violated. These results provide a caution against the uncritical use of population projections derived from mark-recapture estimates of demographic parameters, and the use of untested indices as the basis for conservation decisions.

Alcoholic liver disease: A clinical series in an Australian private practice

Background and Aim: The published literature on alcoholic liver disease (ALD) in Australia lacks a large clinical series out of private practice as distinct from hospital-based hepatology referral units. This series describes the presentation and clinical features of ALD in a consecutive series out of metropolitan private practice in Australia. Methods: A retrospective descriptive study by case-note review found 297 cases of ALD at a Brisbane practice over 20 years. The main outcome measures were: clinical features and stage at presentation, reasons for referral, and the predictive value of aspartate aminotransferase (AST)/alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio. Results: Most patients (57.9%) had no symptoms of liver disease and 29 patients (9.8%) had neither symptoms nor signs. Cirrhosis was found in 41% of patients and hepatitis-fibrosis was found in 26% of patients. The male to female (M: F) ratio was 4.7:1. The AST/ALT ratio was not reliably predictive of ALD stage. The average reported daily alcohol intake was 131 g. Females drank less on average and presented a more vigorous clinical picture. Conclusions: This series presents the spectrum of ALD in a metropolitan Australian private practice. Many patients are asymptomatic on presentation. All heavy drinkers should be targeted for early investigation without waiting for volunteered symptoms or abnormal physical signs. The male to female ratio in ALD is higher than hitherto reported. The AST/ALT ratio is not generally applicable in the staging of ALD. The differences from hospital series data suggest the demography and epidemiology of ALD in Australia are incomplete, and further study is warranted. (C) 2001 Blackwell Science Asia Pty Ltd.