High Level Environmental Screening Study for Offshore Wind Farm Developments – Marine Habitats and Species Project

High level environmental screening study for offshore wind farm developments – marine habitats and species This report provides an awareness of the environmental issues related to marine habitats and species for developers and regulators of offshore wind farms. The information is also relevant to other offshore renewable energy developments. The marine habitats and species considered are those associated with the seabed, seabirds, and sea mammals. The report concludes that the following key ecological issues should be considered in the environmental assessment of offshore wind farms developments: • likely changes in benthic communities within the affected area and resultant indirect impacts on fish, populations and their predators such as seabirds and sea mammals; • potential changes to the hydrography and wave climate over a wide area, and potential changes to coastal processes and the ecology of the region; • likely effects on spawning or nursery areas of commercially important fish and shellfish species; • likely effects on mating and social behaviour in sea mammals, including migration routes; • likely effects on feeding water birds, seal pupping sites and damage of sensitive or important intertidal sites where cables come onshore; • potential displacement of fish, seabird and sea mammals from preferred habitats; • potential effects on species and habitats of marine natural heritage importance; • potential cumulative effects on seabirds, due to displacement of flight paths, and any mortality from bird strike, especially in sensitive rare or scarce species; • possible effects of electromagnetic fields on feeding behaviour and migration, especially in sharks and rays, and • potential marine conservation and biodiversity benefits of offshore wind farm developments as artificial reefs and 'no-take' zones. The report provides an especially detailed assessment of likely sensitivity of seabed species and habitats in the proposed development areas. Although sensitive to some of the factors created by wind farm developments, they mainly have a high recovery potential. The way in which survey data can be linked to Marine Life Information Network (MarLIN) sensitivity assessments to produce maps of sensitivity to factors is demonstrated. Assessing change to marine habitats and species as a result of wind farm developments has to take account of the natural variability of marine habitats, which might be high especially in shallow sediment biotopes. There are several reasons for such changes but physical disturbance of habitats and short-term climatic variability are likely to be especially important. Wind farm structures themselves will attract marine species including those that are attached to the towers and scour protection, fish that associate with offshore structures, and sea birds (especially sea duck) that may find food and shelter there. Nature conservation designations especially relevant to areas where wind farm might be developed are described and the larger areas are mapped. There are few designated sites that extend offshore to where wind farms are likely to be developed. However, cable routes and landfalls may especially impinge on designated sites. The criteria that have been developed to assess the likely marine natural heritage importance of a location or of the habitats and species that occur there can be applied to survey information to assess whether or not there is anything of particular marine natural heritage importance in a development area. A decision tree is presented that can be used to apply ‘duty of care’ principles to any proposed development. The potential ‘gains’ for the local environment are explored. Wind farms will enhance the biodiversity of areas, could act as refugia for fish, and could be developed in a way that encourages enhancement of fish stocks including shellfish.

Marine regime shifts in ocean biogeochemical models: a case study in the Gulf of Alaska

Regime shifts have been reported in many marine ecosystems, and are often expressed as an abrupt change occurring in multiple physical and biological components of the system. In the Gulf of Alaska, a regime shift in the late 1970s was observed, indicated by an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature and major shifts in the catch of many fish species. This late 1970s regime shift in the Gulf of Alaska was followed by another shift in the late 1980s, not as pervasive as the 1977 shift, but which nevertheless did not return to the prior state. A thorough understanding of the extent and mechanisms leading to such regime shifts is challenged by data paucity in time and space. We investigate the ability of a suite of ocean biogeochemistry models of varying complexity to simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska by examining the presence of abrupt changes in time series of physical variables (sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth), nutrients and biological variables (chlorophyll, primary productivity and plankton biomass) using change-point analysis. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical models are capable of simulating the late 1970s shift, indicating an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature forcing followed by an abrupt decrease in nutrients and biological productivity. This predicted shift is consistent among all the models, although some of them exhibit an abrupt transition (i.e. a significant shift from one year to the next), whereas others simulate a smoother transition. Some models further suggest that the late 1980s shift was constrained by changes in mixed layer depth. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical can successfully simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska region, thereby providing better understanding of how changes in physical conditions are propagated from lower to upper trophic levels through bottom-up controls.

Evaluating machine-learning techniques for recruitment forecasting of seven North East Atlantic fish species

The effect of different factors (spawning biomass, environmental conditions) on recruitment is a subject of great importance in the management of fisheries, recovery plans and scenario exploration. In this study, recently proposed supervised classification techniques, tested by the machine-learning community, are applied to forecast the recruitment of seven fish species of North East Atlantic (anchovy, sardine, mackerel, horse mackerel, hake, blue whiting and albacore), using spawning, environmental and climatic data. In addition, the use of the probabilistic flexible naive Bayes classifier (FNBC) is proposed as modelling approach in order to reduce uncertainty for fisheries management purposes. Those improvements aim is to improve probability estimations of each possible outcome (low, medium and high recruitment) based in kernel density estimation, which is crucial for informed management decision making with high uncertainty. Finally, a comparison between goodness-of-fit and generalization power is provided, in order to assess the reliability of the final forecasting models. It is found that in most cases the proposed methodology provides useful information for management whereas the case of horse mackerel is an example of the limitations of the approach. The proposed improvements allow for a better probabilistic estimation of the different scenarios, i.e. to reduce the uncertainty in the provided forecasts.

A marine reservoir correction database and on-line interface

Calibration is essential for interpretation of radiocarbon dates, especially when the 14C dates are compared to historical or climatic records with a different chronological basis. 14C ages of samples from the marine environment, such as shells or fish bones, or samples with a marine component, such as human bone in coastal regions, require an additional consideration because of the reservoir age of the ocean. While the pre-industrial global mean reservoir correction, R(t), is about 400 years, local variations (?R) can be several hundred years or more. ?R compilations on a global scale have been undertaken previously (Stuiver et al. 1986; Stuiver and Braziunas 1993), but have not been updated recently. Here we describe an on-line reservoir correction database accessed via mapping software. Rather than publishing a static ?R compilation, new data will be incorporated when it becomes available. The on-line marine reservoir correction database can be accessed at the website http://www.calib.org/.

Environmental tolerances of free-living coralline algae (maerl): implications for European marine conservation

Maerl is a general term used for loose-lying subtidal beds of nodular coralline red algae. Maerl beds support high associated invertebrate and algal biodiversity, and are subject to European and UK conservation legislation. Previous investigations have shown European maerl to be ecologically fragile due to growth rates of approximately I mm per year. However, these very slow growth rates have hampered attempts to determine the key ecological requirements and sensitivity characteristics of living maerl. In this study, photosynthetic capacity determined by pulse amplitude modulated (PAM) fluorometry was used as a diagnostic of stress caused by various environmental conditions. Maerl species were exposed to a range of temperatures, salinities and light levels and to burial, fragmentation, desiccation and heavy metal treatment. Maerl was not as susceptible as previously assumed to extremes of salinity, temperature and heavy metal pollution, but burial, especially in fine or anoxic sediments, was lethal or caused significant stress. These data indicate that the main anthropogenic hazard for live maerl and the rich communities that depend on them is smothering by fine sediment, such as that produced by trawling or maerl extraction, from sewage discharges or shellfish and fish farm waste, and sedimentation resulting from disruption to tidal flow. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do non-native invasive fish support elevated lamprey populations?

Summary
1: Managing populations of predators and their prey to achieve conservation or resource management goals is usually technically challenging and frequently socially controversial. This is true even in the simplest ecosystems but can be made much worse when predator–prey relationships are in?uenced by complex interactions, such as biological invasions, population trends or animal movements.
2: Lough Neagh in Northern Ireland is a European stronghold for pollan Coregonus autumnalis, a coregonine ?sh and for river lampreyLampetra ?uviatilis, which feeds parasitically as an adult. Both species are of high conservation importance. Lampreys are known to consume pollan but detailed knowledge of their interactions is scant. While pollan is well known to be a landlocked species in Ireland, the life cycle of normally anadromous river lamprey in Lough Neagh has been unclear. The Lough is also a highly perturbed ecosystem, supporting several invasive, non-native ?sh species that have the potential to in?uence lamprey–pollan interactions.
3: We applied stable isotope techniques to resolve both the movement patterns of lamprey and trophic interactions in this complex community. Recognizing that stable isotope studies are often hampered by high-levels of variability and uncertainty in the systems of interest, we employed novel Bayesian mixing models, which incorporate variability and uncertainty.
4: Stable isotope analyses identi?ed troutSalmo trutta and non-native breamAbramis brama as the main items in lamprey diet. Pollan only represented a major food source for lamprey between May and July.
5: Stable isotope ratios of carbon in tissues from 71 adult lamprey showed no evidence of marine carbon sources, strongly suggesting that Lough Neagh is host to a highly unusual, nonanadromous freshwater population. This ?nding marks out the Lough’s lamprey population as of particular scienti?c interest and enhances the conservation signi?cance of this feature of the Lough.
6: Synthesis and applications.Our Bayesian isotopic mixing models illustrate an unusual pattern of animal movement, enhancing conservation interest in an already threatened population. We have also revealed a complex relationship between lamprey and their food species that is suggestive of hyperpredation, whereby non-native species may sustain high lamprey populations that may in turn be detrimental to native pollan.Long-term conservation of lamprey and pollan in this system is likely to require management intervention, but in light of this exceptional complexity, no simple management options are currently supported. Conservation plans will require better characterization ofpopulation-level interactions and simulation modelling of interventions. More generally, our study demonstrates the importance of considering a full range of possible trophic interactions, particularly in complex ecosystems, and highlights Bayesian isotopic mixing models as powerful tools in resolving trophic relationships.
Key-words: Bayesian, conservation dilemma, Coregonus autumnalis, hyperpredation, Lampetra ?uviatilis, pollan, potamodromous, River lamprey, stable isotope analysis in R, stable isotope

Continuous variation in the pattern of marine v. freshwater foraging in brown trout Salmo trutta L. from Loch Lomond, Scotland

Carbon stable-isotope analysis showed that individual brown trout Salmo trutta in Loch Lomond adopted strategies intermediate to that of freshwater residency or anadromy, suggesting either repeated movement between freshwater and marine environments, or estuarine residency. Carbon stable-isotope (delta C-13) values from Loch Lomond brown trout muscle tissue ranged from those indicative of assimilation of purely freshwater-derived carbon to those reflecting significant utilization of marine-derived carbon. A single isotope, two-source mixing model indicated that, on average, marine C made a 33% contribution to the muscle tissue C of Loch Lomond brown trout. Nitrogen stable isotope, delta N-15, but not delta C-13 was correlated with fork length suggesting that larger fish were feeding at a higher trophic level but that marine feeding was not indicated by larger body size. These results are discussed with reference to migration patterns in other species. (c) 2008 The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2008 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

How community ecology links natural mortality, growth, and production of fish populations

Size-spectrum theory is used to show that (i) predation mortality is a decreasing function of individual size and proportional to the consumption rate of predators; (ii) adult natural mortality M is proportional to the von Bertalanffy growth constant K; and (iii) productivity rate P/B is proportional to the asymptotic weight W8 -1/3. The constants of proportionality are specified using individual level parameters related to physiology or prey encounter. The derivations demonstrate how traditional fisheries theory can be connected to community ecology. Implications for the use of models for ecosystem-based fisheries management are discussed.

How to estimate scavenger fish abundance using baited camera data

Baited cameras are often used for abundance estimation wherever alternative techniques are precluded, e.g. in abyssal systems and areas such as reefs. This method has thus far used models of the arrival process that are deterministic and, therefore, permit no estimate of precision.
Furthermore, errors due to multiple counting of fish and missing those not seen by the camera have restricted the technique to using only the time of first arrival, leaving a lot of data redundant. Here, we reformulate the arrival process using a stochastic model, which allows the precision of abundance
estimates to be quantified. Assuming a non-gregarious, cross-current-scavenging fish, we show that prediction of abundance from first arrival time is extremely uncertain. Using example data, we show
that simple regression-based prediction from the initial (rising) slope of numbers at the bait gives good precision, accepting certain assumptions. The most precise abundance estimates were obtained
by including the declining phase of the time series, using a simple model of departures, and taking account of scavengers beyond the camera’s view, using a hidden Markov model.

Environmental context explains Levy and Brownian movement patterns of marine predators

An optimal search theory, the so-called Levy-flight foraging hypothesis(1), predicts that predators should adopt search strategies known as Levy flights where prey is sparse and distributed unpredictably, but that Brownian movement is sufficiently efficient for locating abundant prey(2-4). Empirical studies have generated controversy because the accuracy of statistical methods that have been used to identify Levy behaviour has recently been questioned(5,6). Consequently, whether foragers exhibit Levy flights in the wild remains unclear. Crucially, moreover, it has not been tested whether observed movement patterns across natural landscapes having different expected resource distributions conform to the theory's central predictions. Here we use maximum-likelihood methods to test for Levy patterns in relation to environmental gradients in the largest animal movement data set assembled for this purpose. Strong support was found for Levy search patterns across 14 species of open-ocean predatory fish (sharks, tuna, billfish and ocean sunfish), with some individuals switching between Levy and Brownian movement as they traversed different habitat types. We tested the spatial occurrence of these two principal patterns and found Levy behaviour to be associated with less productive waters (sparser prey) and Brownian movements to be associated with productive shelf or convergence-front habitats (abundant prey). These results are consistent with the Levy-flight foraging hypothesis(1,7), supporting the contention(8,9) that organism search strategies naturally evolved in such a way that they exploit optimal Levy patterns.

Satellite tracking of the World's largest bony fish, the ocean sunfish (Mola mola L.) in the North East Atlantic

Satellite-linked archival transmitters were used to record the movements of three ocean sunfish (Mola mola) in the North East Atlantic. Patterns of depth use and temperature experienced by individual fish were integrated into 4-hour intervals throughout the tracking period and relayed via the Argos system. Data were recorded for 42, 90 and 54 days respectively from the three fish. The first two were tagged off southern Portugal at the end of February 2007 and travelled principally northward, while the third fish was tagged off west Ireland in August 2007 and travelled southward. These patterns are consistent with seasonal migration of ocean sunfish to high latitudes and their Subsequent return south. Maximum depths recorded by the three fish were 432 m, 472 m and 320 m respectively. All three individuals showed a diel pattern in depth use, occurring deeper during the day and shallower at night, a pattern consistent with sunfish tracking normally vertically migrating prey. Sunfish sometimes remained continuously at deeper (>200 m) depths during the day, but at other times they showed extensive movement through the water column typically travelling between their maximum depth and the surface within each 4-h period. The overall pattern to emerge was that ocean sunfish travel extensively in both horizontal and vertical dimensions, presumably in search of their patchily-distributed jellyfish prey.

The impact of the 1998 coral mortality on reef fish communities in the Seychelles

Coral reef fish communities in the Seychelles are highly diverse and remain less affected by the direct impacts of human activities than those on many other coral reefs in the Indian Ocean. These factors make them highly suitable for a detailed survey of the impacts of the 1998 mass coral mortality, which devastated the coral faunas of the region. Using underwater visual census (UVC) techniques, fish communities were sampled in three localities in the southern Seychelles and one locality in the northern (granitic) Seychelles. Initial surveys were undertaken from the latter site in 1997. Surveys were undertaken at all sites during the coral bleaching episode in 1998 prior to any major changes in the reef fish communities. Repeat surveys were undertaken in 1999 one year after the coral mortality. Over 250 fish species were sampled from 35 families. Results suggest that changes in the overall fish community structures are not great, despite massive changes in the benthic cover. Significant changes have been observed in a number of individual species. These include those most heavily dependent on live coral cover for shelter or sustenance. Future potential changes are discussed, and potential management interventions are considered. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recent data suggest no further recovery in North Sea Large Fish Indicator

We detail the calculations of North Sea Large Fish Indicator values for 2009-2011, demonstrating an apparent stall in recovery. Therefore, recovery to the Marine Strategy Framework Directive's good environmental status of 0.3 by the 2020 deadline now looks less certain and may take longer than was expected using data from 2006 to 2008.