Characterisation of the DNA-polymerase-alpha-primase complex from the silk glands of Bombyx mori

Silk gland cells ofBombyx mori undergo chromosomal endoduplication throughout larval development. The DNA content of both posterior and middle silk gland nuclei increased by 300000 times the haploid genomic content, amounting to 18 rounds of replication. The DNA doubling time is approximately 48 h and 24 h during the fourth and fifth instars of larval development. However, DNA content does not change during the interim moult. Concomitant with DNA content, DNA polymerase activity also increases as development progressed. Enzyme activity is predominantly due to DNA polymerase with no detectable level of polymerase . DNA polymerase from silk gland extracts was purified to homogeneity (using a series of columns involving ionexchange, gel-filtration and affintiy chromatography), resulting in a 4000-fold increase in specific activity. The enzyme is a heterogeneous multimer of high molecular mass, and the catalytic (polymerase) activity is resident in the 180-kDa subunit. The enzyme shows a PI of 6.2 and theKm values for the dNTP vary over 5-16 . The polymerase is tightly associated with primase activity and initiates primer synthesis in the presence of ribonucleoside triphosphates on a single-stranded DNA template. The primase activity is resident in the 45-kDa subunit. The enzyme is devoid of any detectable exonuclease activity. The abundance of DNA polymerase α in silk glands and its strong association with the nuclear matrix suggest a role in the DNA endoduplication process.

Stereospecific photodimerization of coumarins in crystalline inclusion complexes. Molecular and crystal structure of 1:2 complex of (S,S)-(-)-1,6-bis(o-chlorophenyl)-1,6-diphenyl-hexa-2,4-diyne-1,6-diol and coumarin

Proximity of molecules is a crucial factor in many solid- state photochemical processes.'S2 The biomolecular photodimerization reactions in the solid state depend on the relative geometry of reactant molecules in the crystal lattice with center-to-center distance of nearest neighbor double bonds of the order of ca. 4 A. This fact emanates from the incisive studies of Schmidt and Cohen.2 One of the two approaches to achieve this distance requirement is the so-called "Crystal-Engineering" of structures, which essentially involves the introduction of certain functional groups that display in-plane interstacking interactions (Cl...Cl, C-He-0, etc.) in the crystal The chloro group is by far the most successful in promoting the /3- packing m ~ d e ,th~o,u~gh recent studies have shown its limitations? Another approach involves the use of constrained media in which the reactants could hopefully be aligned.

Analysis of the amino acid sequences of plant Bowman-Birk inhibitors

Plant seeds contain a large number of protease inhibitors of animal, fungal, and bacterial origin. One of the well-studied families of these inhibitors is the Bowman-Birk family(BBI). The BBIs from dicotyledonous seeds are 8K, double-headed proteins. In contrast, the 8K inhibitors from monocotyledonous seeds are single headed. Monocots also have a 16K, double-headed inhibitor. We have determined the primary structure of a Bowman-Birk inhibitor from a dicot, horsegram, by sequential edman analysis of the intact protein and peptides derived from enzymatic and chemical cleavage. The 76-residue-long inhibitor is very similar to that ofMacrotyloma axillare. An analysis of this inhibitor along with 26 other Bowman-Birk inhibitor domains (MW 8K) available in the SWISSPROT databank revealed that the proteins from monocots and dicots belong to related but distinct families. Inhibitors from monocots show larger variation in sequence. Sequence comparison shows that a crucial disulphide which connects the amino and carboxy termini of the active site loop is lost in monocots. The loss of a reactive site in monocots seems to be correlated to this. However, it appears that this disulphide is not absolutely essential for retention of inhibitory function. Our analysis suggests that gene duplication leading to a 16K inhibitor in monocots has occurred, probably after the divergence of monocots and dicots, and also after the loss of second reactive site in monocots.

On the relationship of thermodynamic parameters with the buried surface area in protein-ligand complex formation

Prediction of thermodynamic parameters of protein-protein and antigen-antibody complex formation from high resolution structural parameters has recently received much attention, since an understanding of the contributions of different fundamental processes like hydrophobic interactions, hydrogen bonding, salt bridge formation, solvent reorganization etc. to the overall thermodynamic parameters and their relations with the structural parameters would lead to rational drug design. Using the results of the dissolution of hydrocarbons and other model compounds the changes in heat capacity (DeltaCp), enthalpy (DeltaH) and entropy (DeltaS) have been empirically correlated with the polar and apolar surface areas buried during the process of protein folding/unfolding and protein-ligand complex formation. In this regard, the polar and apolar surfaces removed from the solvent in a protein-ligand complex have been calculated from the experimentally observed values of changes in heat capacity (DeltaCp) and enthalpy (DeltaH) for protein-ligand complexes for which accurate thermodynamic and high resolution structural data are available, and the results have been compared with the x-ray crystallographic observations. Analyses of the available results show poor correlation between the thermodynamic and structural parameters. Probable reasons for this discrepancy are mostly related with the reorganization of water accompanying the reaction which is indeed proven by the analyses of the energetics of the binding of the wheat germ agglutinin to oligosaccharides.

Gene Expression : From Microarrays to Functional Genomics

The time of the large sequencing projects has enabled unprecedented possibilities of investigating more complex aspects of living organisms. Among the high-throughput technologies based on the genomic sequences, the DNA microarrays are widely used for many purposes, including the measurement of the relative quantity of the messenger RNAs. However, the reliability of microarrays has been strongly doubted as robust analysis of the complex microarray output data has been developed only after the technology had already been spread in the community. An objective of this study consisted of increasing the performance of microarrays, and was measured by the successful validation of the results by independent techniques. To this end, emphasis has been given to the possibility of selecting candidate genes with remarkable biological significance within specific experimental design. Along with literature evidence, the re-annotation of the probes and model-based normalization algorithms were found to be beneficial when analyzing Affymetrix GeneChip data. Typically, the analysis of microarrays aims at selecting genes whose expression is significantly different in different conditions followed by grouping them in functional categories, enabling a biological interpretation of the results. Another approach investigates the global differences in the expression of functionally related groups of genes. Here, this technique has been effective in discovering patterns related to temporal changes during infection of human cells. Another aspect explored in this thesis is related to the possibility of combining independent gene expression data for creating a catalog of genes that are selectively expressed in healthy human tissues. Not all the genes present in human cells are active; some involved in basic activities (named housekeeping genes) are expressed ubiquitously. Other genes (named tissue-selective genes) provide more specific functions and they are expressed preferably in certain cell types or tissues. Defining the tissue-selective genes is also important as these genes can cause disease with phenotype in the tissues where they are expressed. The hypothesis that gene expression could be used as a measure of the relatedness of the tissues has been also proved. Microarray experiments provide long lists of candidate genes that are often difficult to interpret and prioritize. Extending the power of microarray results is possible by inferring the relationships of genes under certain conditions. Gene transcription is constantly regulated by the coordinated binding of proteins, named transcription factors, to specific portions of the its promoter sequence. In this study, the analysis of promoters from groups of candidate genes has been utilized for predicting gene networks and highlighting modules of transcription factors playing a central role in the regulation of their transcription. Specific modules have been found regulating the expression of genes selectively expressed in the hippocampus, an area of the brain having a central role in the Major Depression Disorder. Similarly, gene networks derived from microarray results have elucidated aspects of the development of the mesencephalon, another region of the brain involved in Parkinson Disease.

Aerobic carbon-cycle related microbial communities in boreal peatlands: responses to water-level drawdown

Boreal peatlands represent a considerable portion of the global carbon (C) pool. Water-level drawdown (WLD) causes peatland drying and induces a vegetation change, which affects the decomposition of soil organic matter and the release of greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4). The objective of this thesis was to study the microbial communities related to the C cycle and their response to WLD in two boreal peatlands. Both sampling depth and site type had a strong impact on all microbial communities. In general, bacteria dominated the deeper layers of the nutrient-rich fen and the wettest surfaces of the nutrient-poor bog sites, whereas fungi seemed more abundant in the drier surfaces of the bog. WLD clearly affected the microbial communities but the effect was dependent on site type. The fungal and methane-oxidizing bacteria (MOB) community composition changed at all sites but the actinobacterial community response was apparent only in the fen after WLD. Microbial communities became more similar among sites after long-term WLD. Litter quality had a large impact on community composition, whereas the effects of site type and WLD were relatively minor. The decomposition rate of fresh organic matter was influenced slightly by actinobacteria, but not at all by fungi. Field respiration measurements in the northern fen indicated that WLD accelerates the decomposition of soil organic matter. In addition, a correlation between activity and certain fungal sequences indicated that community composition affects the decomposition of older organic matter in deeper peat layers. WLD had a negative impact on CH4 oxidation, especially in the oligotrophic fen. Fungal sequences were matched to taxa capable of utilizing a broad range of substrates. Most of the actinobacterial sequences could not be matched to characterized taxa in reference databases. This thesis represents the first investigation of microbial communities and their response to WLD among a variety of boreal peatland habitats. The results indicate that microbial community responses to WLD are complex but dependent on peatland type, litter quality, depth, and variable among microbes.

Characterization of genomic diversity in extraintestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli (ExPEC) and development of a diagnostic DNA microarray for the differentiation of ExPEC isolates causing urinary tract infections

Extraintestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli (ExPEC) represent a diverse group of strains of E. coli, which infect extraintestinal sites, such as the urinary tract, the bloodstream, the meninges, the peritoneal cavity, and the lungs. Urinary tract infections (UTIs) caused by uropathogenic E. coli (UPEC), the major subgroup of ExPEC, are among the most prevalent microbial diseases world wide and a substantial burden for public health care systems. UTIs are responsible for serious morbidity and mortality in the elderly, in young children, and in immune-compromised and hospitalized patients. ExPEC strains are different, both from genetic and clinical perspectives, from commensal E. coli strains belonging to the normal intestinal flora and from intestinal pathogenic E. coli strains causing diarrhea. ExPEC strains are characterized by a broad range of alternate virulence factors, such as adhesins, toxins, and iron accumulation systems. Unlike diarrheagenic E. coli, whose distinctive virulence determinants evoke characteristic diarrheagenic symptoms and signs, ExPEC strains are exceedingly heterogeneous and are known to possess no specific virulence factors or a set of factors, which are obligatory for the infection of a certain extraintestinal site (e. g. the urinary tract). The ExPEC genomes are highly diverse mosaic structures in permanent flux. These strains have obtained a significant amount of DNA (predictably up to 25% of the genomes) through acquisition of foreign DNA from diverse related or non-related donor species by lateral transfer of mobile genetic elements, including pathogenicity islands (PAIs), plasmids, phages, transposons, and insertion elements. The ability of ExPEC strains to cause disease is mainly derived from this horizontally acquired gene pool; the extragenous DNA facilitates rapid adaptation of the pathogen to changing conditions and hence the extent of the spectrum of sites that can be infected. However, neither the amount of unique DNA in different ExPEC strains (or UPEC strains) nor the mechanisms lying behind the observed genomic mobility are known. Due to this extreme heterogeneity of the UPEC and ExPEC populations in general, the routine surveillance of ExPEC is exceedingly difficult. In this project, we presented a novel virulence gene algorithm (VGA) for the estimation of the extraintestinal virulence potential (VP, pathogenicity risk) of clinically relevant ExPECs and fecal E. coli isolates. The VGA was based on a DNA microarray specific for the ExPEC phenotype (ExPEC pathoarray). This array contained 77 DNA probes homologous with known (e.g. adhesion factors, iron accumulation systems, and toxins) and putative (e.g. genes predictably involved in adhesion, iron uptake, or in metabolic functions) ExPEC virulence determinants. In total, 25 of DNA probes homologous with known virulence factors and 36 of DNA probes representing putative extraintestinal virulence determinants were found at significantly higher frequency in virulent ExPEC isolates than in commensal E. coli strains. We showed that the ExPEC pathoarray and the VGA could be readily used for the differentiation of highly virulent ExPECs both from less virulent ExPEC clones and from commensal E. coli strains as well. Implementing the VGA in a group of unknown ExPECs (n=53) and fecal E. coli isolates (n=37), 83% of strains were correctly identified as extraintestinal virulent or commensal E. coli. Conversely, 15% of clinical ExPECs and 19% of fecal E. coli strains failed to raster into their respective pathogenic and non-pathogenic groups. Clinical data and virulence gene profiles of these strains warranted the estimated VPs; UPEC strains with atypically low risk-ratios were largely isolated from patients with certain medical history, including diabetes mellitus or catheterization, or from elderly patients. In addition, fecal E. coli strains with VPs characteristic for ExPEC were shown to represent the diagnostically important fraction of resident strains of the gut flora with a high potential of causing extraintestinal infections. Interestingly, a large fraction of DNA probes associated with the ExPEC phenotype corresponded to novel DNA sequences without any known function in UTIs and thus represented new genetic markers for the extraintestinal virulence. These DNA probes included unknown DNA sequences originating from the genomic subtractions of four clinical ExPEC isolates as well as from five novel cosmid sequences identified in the UPEC strains HE300 and JS299. The characterized cosmid sequences (pJS332, pJS448, pJS666, pJS700, and pJS706) revealed complex modular DNA structures with known and unknown DNA fragments arranged in a puzzle-like manner and integrated into the common E. coli genomic backbone. Furthermore, cosmid pJS332 of the UPEC strain HE300, which carried a chromosomal virulence gene cluster (iroBCDEN) encoding the salmochelin siderophore system, was shown to be part of a transmissible plasmid of Salmonella enterica. Taken together, the results of this project pointed towards the assumptions that first, (i) homologous recombination, even within coding genes, contributes to the observed mosaicism of ExPEC genomes and secondly, (ii) besides en block transfer of large DNA regions (e.g. chromosomal PAIs) also rearrangements of small DNA modules provide a means of genomic plasticity. The data presented in this project supplemented previous whole genome sequencing projects of E. coli and indicated that each E. coli genome displays a unique assemblage of individual mosaic structures, which enable these strains to successfully colonize and infect different anatomical sites.

Formation of an unusual copper(II) complex from the degradation of a novel tricopper(II) carbohydrazone complex

An unusual copper(II) complex [Cu(L-1a)(2)Cl-2] CH3OH center dot H2O center dot H3O+Cl- (1a) was isolated from a solution of a novel tricopper(II) complex [Cu-3(HL1)Cl-2]Cl-3 center dot 2H(2)O (1) in methanol. where L-1a is 3-(2-pyridyl)triazolo [1,5-a]-pyridine, and characterized with single crystal X-ray diffraction study. The tricopper(II) complex of potential ligand 1,5-bis(di-2-pyridyl ketone) carbohydrazone (H2L1) was synthesized and physicochemically characterized, while the formation of the complex la was followed by time-dependant monitoring of the UV-visible spectra. which reveals degradation of ligand backbone as intensity loss of bands corresponding to O -> Cu(II) charge transfer.

The ghost in the city industrial complex: Le Corbusier and the fascist theory of Urbanisme

Le Corbusier participated in an urban dialogue with the first group in France to call itself fascist: the journalist Georges Valois’s militant Faisceau des Combattants et Producteurs (1925-1927), the “Blue Shirts,” inspired by the Italian “Fasci” of Mussolini. Le Corbusier’s portrait photograph materialised on the front cover of the January 1927 issue of the Faisceau League’s newspaper Le Nouveau Siècle edited by the former anarcho-syndicalist journalist Georges Valois, its leader, who fashioned himself as the French Mussolini. Le Corbusier was described in the Revue as one of les animateurs (the “organisers”) of the Party1 – meaning a member of the technical elite who would drive the Faisceau’s plans. On 1 May 1927, the Nouveau Siècle printed a full-page feature “Le Plan Voisin” on Le Corbusier’s 1922 redesign of Paris : the architect’s single-point perspective sketch appeared below an extract lifted from the architect’s original polemic Le Centre de Paris on the pages of Le Corbusier’s second book Urbanisme published two years earlier, a treatise on urbanism.2 Three weeks later, Le Corbusier presented a slide show of his urban plans at a fascist rally for the inauguration of the Faisceau’s new headquarters on the rue du faubourg Poissonniere, thereby crystalising the architect’s hallowed status in the league...

Nuclear Import Mechanisms of STAT and NF-kB Transcription Factors

The eukaryotic cell nucleoplasm is separated from the cytoplasm by the nuclear envelope. This compartmentation of eukaryotic cells requires that all nuclear proteins must be transported from the cytoplasm into the nucleus. Transport of macromolecules between the nucleus and the cytoplasm occurs through nuclear pore complexes (NPCs). Proteins to be targeted into the nucleus by the classical nuclear import system contain nuclear localization signals (NLSs), which are recognized by importin alpha, the NLS receptor. Importin alpha binds to importin beta, which docks the importin-cargo complex on the cytoplasmic side of the NPC and mediates the movement of the complex into the nucleus. Presently six human importin alpha isoforms have been identified. Transcription factors are among the most important regulators of gene expression in eukaryotic organisms. Transcription factors bind to specific DNA sequences on target genes and modulate the activity of the target gene. Many transcription factors, including signal transducers and activators of transcription (STAT) and nuclear factor kB (NF-kB), reside in the cytoplasm in an inactive form, and upon activation they are rapidly transported into the nucleus. In the nucleus STATs and NF-kB regulate the activity of genes whose products are critical in controlling numerous cellular and organismal processes, such as inflammatory and immune responses, cell growth, differentiation and survival. The aim of this study was to investigate the nuclear import mechanisms of STAT and NF-kB transcription factors. This work shows that STAT1 homodimers and STAT1/STAT2 heterodimers bind specifically and directly to importin alpha5 molecule via unconventional dimer-specific NLSs. Importin alpha molecules have two regions, which have been shown to directly interact with the amino acids in the NLS of the cargo molecule. The Arm repeats 2-4 comprise the N-terminal NLS binding site and Arm repeats 7-8 the C-terminal NLS binding site. In this work it is shown that the binding site for STAT1 homodimers and STAT1/STAT2 heterodimers is composed of Arm repeats 8 and 9 of importin alpha5 molecule. This work demonstrates that all NF-kB proteins are transported into the nucleus by importin alpha molecules. In addition, NLS was identified in RelB protein. The interactions between NF-kB proteins and importin alpha molecules were found to be directly mediated by the NLSs of NF-kB proteins. Moreover, we found that p50 binds to the N-terminal and p65 to the C-terminal NLS binding site of importin alpha3. The results from this thesis work identify previously uncharacterized mechanisms in nuclear import of STAT and NF-kB. These findings provide new insights into the molecular mechanisms regulating the signalling cascades of these important transcription factors from the cytoplasm into the nucleus to the target genes.

The family Herbertaceae and its novel systematic position within liverworts

Taxonomic relationships of the liverwort genus Herbertus in Asia were examined. In addition, the phylogeny of the family Herbertaceae and its close relatives was investigated and analyses conducted of higher level relationships within the entire liverwort phylum. Species of Herbertus show great plasticity in various morphological characters, resulted in a large number of described species. This study was the first comprehensive revision of Asian Herbertus, with 12 species recognized for the continent. Eleven names were reduced to synonymy under earlier described species, and one species was excluded from the genus. Herbertus buchii Juslén was described as a new species. Phylogenetic analyses based on both molecular and morphological characters resolved the families Vetaformaceae, Lepicoleaceae, and Herbertaceae (including Mastigophoraceae) as a monophyletic entity. This clade is among the most derived groups within the leafy liverworts and comprises mostly isophyllous plants, all of which have bracteolar antheridia. The relationships of Mastigophoraceae have formerly been controversial. My results confirm the view that this family is closely related to Herbertaceae, Lepicoleaceae, and Vetaformaceae. In the proposed new classification Mastigophoraceae is included in Herbertaceae. Phylogenetic relationships within the liverworts were reconstructed using both chloroplast and nuclear sequences as well as morphological characters. These analyses were the most comprehensive to date at the time of publication. Previously it was believed that liverworts had a common ancestor with an erect, radial gametophyte and a tetrahedral apical cell. The leafy liverworts were arranged based on the assumption that similar structures had repeatedly developed in many different suborders, with evolution proceeding from erect and isophyllous to creeping and anisophyllous plants. The complex thalloid liverworts were assumed to be the most derived group. By contrast, our studies resolved a clade comprising Treubia and Haplomitrium as the earliest extant liverwort lineage. According to our results the complex thalloids are also an early diverging lineage, and the simple thalloids, traditionally classified together, are a paraphyletic group. Within leafy liverworts, the hypothesis of repeated evolution from isophyllous to anisophyllous plants based on the assumption of a basal unresolved polytomy was rejected. Fundamentally, the leafy liverworts can be divided into three groups. In conflict with the earlier hypotheses, the isophyllous liverworts, including Herbertaceae, were resolved as derived lineages within the liverworts.

Molecular epidemiology of human rhinoviruses

The first part of this work investigates the molecular epidemiology of a human enterovirus (HEV), echovirus 30 (E-30). This project is part of a series of studies performed in our research team analyzing the molecular epidemiology of HEV-B viruses. A total of 129 virus strains had been isolated in different parts of Europe. The sequence analysis was performed in three different genomic regions: 420 nucleotides (nt) in the VP4/VP2 capsid protein coding region, the entire VP1 capsid protein coding gene of 876 nt, and 150 nt in the VP1/2A junction region. The analysis revealed a succession of dominant sublineages within a major genotype. The temporally earlier genotypes had been replaced by a genetically homogenous lineage that has been circulating in Europe since the late 1970s. The same genotype was found by other research groups in North America and Australia. Globally, other cocirculating genetic lineages also exist. The prevalence of a dominant genotype makes E-30 different from other previously studied HEVs, such as polioviruses and coxsackieviruses B4 and B5, for which several coexisting genetic lineages have been reported. The second part of this work deals with molecular epidemiology of human rhinoviruses (HRVs). A total of 61 field isolates were studied in the 420-nt stretch in the capsid coding region of VP4/VP2. The isolates were collected from children under two years of age in Tampere, Finland. Sequences from the clinical isolates clustered in the two previously known phylogenetic clades. Seasonal clustering was found. Also, several distinct serotype-like clusters were found to co-circulate during the same epidemic season. Reappearance of a cluster after disappearing for a season was observed. The molecular epidemiology of the analyzed strains turned out to be complex, and we decided to continue our studies of HRV. Only five previously published complete genome sequences of HRV prototype strains were available for analysis. Therefore, all designated HRV prototype strains (n=102) were sequenced in the VP4/VP2 region, and the possibility of genetic typing of HRV was evaluated. Seventy-six of the 102 prototype strains clustered in HRV genetic group A (HRV-A) and 25 in group B (HRV-B). Serotype 87 clustered separately from other HRVs with HEV species D. The field strains of HRV represented as many as 19 different genotypes, as judged with an approximate demarcation of a 20% nt difference in the VP4/VP2 region. The interserotypic differences of HRV were generally similar to those reported between different HEV serotypes (i.e. about 20%), but smaller differences, less than 10%, were also observed. Because some HRV serotypes are genetically so closely related, we suggest that the genetic typing be performed using the criterion "the closest prototype strain". This study is the first systematic genetic characterization of all known HRV prototype strains, providing a further taxonomic proposal for classification of HRV. We proposed to divide the genus Human rhinoviruses into HRV-A and HRV-B. The final part of the work comprises a phylogenetic analysis of a subset (48) of HRV prototype strains and field isolates (12) in the nonstructural part of the genome coding for the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (3D). The proposed division of the HRV strains in the species HRV-A and HRV-B was also supported by 3D region. HRV-B clustered closer to HEV species B, C, and also to polioviruses than to HRV-A. Intraspecies variation within both HRV-A and HRV-B was greater in the 3D coding region than in the VP4/VP2 coding region, in contrast to HEV. Moreover, the diversity of HRV in 3D exceeded that of HEV. One group of HRV-A, designated HRV-A', formed a separate cluster outside other HRV-A in the 3D region. It formed a cluster also in the capsid region, but located within HRV-A. This may reflect a different evolutionary history of distinct genomic regions among HRV-A. Furthermore, the tree topology within HRV-A in the 3D region differed from that in the VP4/VP2, suggesting possible recombination events in the evolution of the strains. No conflicting phylogenies were observed in any of the 12 field isolates. Possible recombination was further studied using the Similarity and Bootscanning analyses of the complete genome sequences of HRV available in public databases. Evidence for recombination among HRV-A was found, as HRV2 and HRV39 showed higher similarity in the nonstructural part of the genome. Whether HRV2 and HRV39 strains - and perhaps also some other HRV-A strains not yet completely sequenced - are recombinants remains to be determined.

Managing uncertainty to improve the cost performance of complex infrastructure projects

There has been a recent spate of high profile infrastructure cost overruns in Australia and internationally. This is just the tip of a longer-term and more deeply-seated problem with initial budget estimating practice, well recognised in both academic research and industry reviews: the problem of uncertainty. A case study of the Sydney Opera House is used to identify and illustrate the key causal factors and system dynamics of cost overruns. It is conventionally the role of risk management to deal with such uncertainty, but the type and extent of the uncertainty involved in complex projects is shown to render established risk management techniques ineffective. This paper considers a radical advance on current budget estimating practice which involves a particular approach to statistical modelling complemented by explicit training in estimating practice. The statistical modelling approach combines the probability management techniques of Savage, which operate on actual distributions of values rather than flawed representations of distributions, and the data pooling technique of Skitmore, where the size of the reference set is optimised. Estimating training employs particular calibration development methods pioneered by Hubbard, which reduce the bias of experts caused by over-confidence and improve the consistency of subjective decision-making. A new framework for initial budget estimating practice is developed based on the combined statistical and training methods, with each technique being explained and discussed.