Temperature and the development rates of thrips: evidence for a constraint on local adaptation?

Typically, the relationship between insect development and temperature is described by two characteristics: the minimum temperature needed for development to occur (T-min) and the number of day degrees required (DDR) for the completion of development. We investigated these characteristics in three English populations of Thrips major and T tabaci [Cawood, Yorkshire (N53degrees49', W1degrees7'); Boxworth, Cambridgeshire (N52degrees15', W0degrees1'); Silwood Park, Berkshire (N51degrees24', W0degrees38')], and two populations of Frankliniella occidentalis (Cawood; Silwood Park). While there were no significant differences among populations in either T-min (mean for T major = 7.0degreesC; T tabaci = 5.9degreesC; F. occidentalis = 6.7degreesC) or DDR (mean for T major = 229.9; T tabaci = 260.8; F occidentalis = 233.4), there were significant differences in the relationship between temperature and body size, suggesting the presence of geographic variation in this trait. Using published data, in addition to those newly collected, we found a negative relationship between T-min. and DDR for F occidentalis and T tabaci, supporting the hypothesis that a trade-off between T-min and DDR may constrain adaptation to local climatic conditions.

Scenarios as the basis for assessment of mitigation and adaptation

The possibilities and need for adaptation and mitigation depends on uncertain future developments with respect to socio-economic factors and the climate system. Scenarios are used to explore the impacts of different strategies under uncertainty. In this chapter, some scenarios are presented that are used in the ADAM project for this purpose. One scenario explores developments with no mitigation, and thus with high temperature increase and high reliance on adaptation (leading to 4oC increase by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels). A second scenario explores an ambitious mitigation strategy (leading to 2oC increase by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels). In the latter scenario, stringent mitigation strategies effectively reduces the risks of climate change, but based on uncertainties in the climate system a temperature increase of 3oC or more cannot be excluded. The analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but even then adaptation will be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which adaptation is more cost-effective than mitigation, but mitigation can help reduce damages and the cost of adaptation. For agriculture, finally, only the scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts.

Observed adaptation to climate change: UK evidence of transition to a well-adapting society

This paper investigates whether and to what extent a wide range of actors in the UK are adapting to climate change, and whether this is evidence of a social transition. We document evidence of over 300 examples of early adopters of adaptation practice to climate change in the UK. These examples span a range of activities from small adjustments (or coping) to building adaptive capacity, implementing actions and creating deeper systemic change in public and private organisations in a range of sectors. We find that adaptation in the UK has been dominated by government initiatives and has principally occurred in the form of research into climate change impacts. These actions within government stimulate a further set of actions at other scales in public agencies, regulatory agencies and regional government (or in the devolved administrations), though with little real evidence of climate change adaptation initiatives trickling down to local government level. The water supply and flood defence sectors, requiring significant investment in large scale infrastructure such as reservoirs and coastal defences, have invested more heavily in identifying potential impacts and adaptations. Economic sectors that are not dependent on large scale infrastructure appear to be investing far less effort and resources in preparing for climate change. We conclude that while the government-driven top-down targeted adaptation approach has generated anticipatory action at low cost, it may also have created enough niche activities to allow for diffusion of new adaptation practices in response to real or perceived climate change. These results have significant implications for how climate policy can be developed to support autonomous adaptors in the UK and other countries.

A review of climate risk information for adaptation and development planning

Although the use of climate scenarios for impact assessment has grown steadily since the 1990s, uptake of such information for adaptation is lagging by nearly a decade in terms of scientific output. Nonetheless, integration of climate risk information in development planning is now a priority for donor agencies because of the need to prepare for climate change impacts across different sectors and countries. This urgency stems from concerns that progress made against Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) could be threatened by anthropogenic climate change beyond 2015. Up to this time the human signal, though detectable and growing, will be a relatively small component of climate variability and change. This implies the need for a twin-track approach: on the one hand, vulnerability assessments of social and economic strategies for coping with present climate extremes and variability, and, on the other hand, development of climate forecast tools and scenarios to evaluate sector-specific, incremental changes in risk over the next few decades. This review starts by describing the climate outlook for the next couple of decades and the implications for adaptation assessments. We then review ways in which climate risk information is already being used in adaptation assessments and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of three groups of techniques. Next we identify knowledge gaps and opportunities for improving the production and uptake of climate risk information for the 2020s. We assert that climate change scenarios can meet some, but not all, of the needs of adaptation planning. Even then, the choice of scenario technique must be matched to the intended application, taking into account local constraints of time, resources, human capacity and supporting infrastructure. We also show that much greater attention should be given to improving and critiquing models used for climate impact assessment, as standard practice. Finally, we highlight the over-arching need for the scientific community to provide more information and guidance on adapting to the risks of climate variability and change over nearer time horizons (i.e. the 2020s). Although the focus of the review is on information provision and uptake in developing regions, it is clear that many developed countries are facing the same challenges. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

An LMS style variable tap-length algorithm for structure adaptation

Searching for the optimum tap-length that best balances the complexity and steady-state performance of an adaptive filter has attracted attention recently. Among existing algorithms that can be found in the literature, two of which, namely the segmented filter (SF) and gradient descent (GD) algorithms, are of particular interest as they can search for the optimum tap-length quickly. In this paper, at first, we carefully compare the SF and GD algorithms and show that the two algorithms are equivalent in performance under some constraints, but each has advantages/disadvantages relative to the other. Then, we propose an improved variable tap-length algorithm using the concept of the pseudo fractional tap-length (FT). Updating the tap-length with instantaneous errors in a style similar to that used in the stochastic gradient [or least mean squares (LMS)] algorithm, the proposed FT algorithm not only retains the advantages from both the SF and the GD algorithms but also has significantly less complexity than existing algorithms. Both performance analysis and numerical simulations are given to verify the new proposed algorithm.

Structure adaptation of linear MMSE adaptive filters

The tap-length, or the number of the taps, is an important structural parameter of the linear MMSE adaptive filter. Although the optimum tap-length that balances performance and complexity varies with scenarios, most current adaptive filters fix the tap-length at some compromise value, making them inefficient to implement especially in time-varying scenarios. A novel gradient search based variable tap-length algorithm is proposed, using the concept of the pseudo-fractional tap-length, and it is shown that the new algorithm can converge to the optimum tap-length in the mean. Results of computer simulations are also provided to verify the analysis.

Flexible MMSE DFE using length and LAG adaptation

This paper investigates how to choose the optimum tap-length and decision delay for the decision feedback equalizer (DFE). Although the feedback filter length can be set as the channel memory, there is no closed-form expression for the feedforward filter length and decision delay. In this paper, first we analytically show that the two dimensional search for the optimum feedforward filter length and decision delay can be simplified to a one dimensional search, and then describe a new adaptive DFE where the optimum structural parameters can be self-adapted.

The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation

Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 °C increase by 2100. For the second scenario, uncertainties in the climate system imply that a global mean temperature increase of 3 °C or more cannot be ruled out. Our analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but adaptation will still be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which, from a global and purely monetary perspective, adaptation (up to 2100) seems more effective than mitigation. From the perspective of poorer and small island countries, however, stringent mitigation is necessary to keep risks at manageable levels. For agriculture, only a scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts.

Adaptation of tree growth to elevated CO2: quantitative trait loci for biomass in Populus

Information on the genetic variation of plant response to elevated CO2 (e[CO2]) is needed to understand plant adaptation and to pinpoint likely evolutionary response to future high atmospheric CO2 concentrations.• Here, quantitative trait loci (QTL) for above- and below-ground tree growth were determined in a pedigree – an F2 hybrid of poplar (Populus trichocarpa and Populus deltoides), following season-long exposure to either current day ambient CO2 (a[CO2]) or e[CO2] at 600 µl l−1, and genotype by environment interactions investigated.• In the F2 generation, both above- and below-ground growth showed a significant increase in e[CO2]. Three areas of the genome on linkage groups I, IX and XII were identified as important in determining above-ground growth response to e[CO2], while an additional three areas of the genome on linkage groups IV, XVI and XIX appeared important in determining root growth response to e[CO2].• These results quantify and identify genetic variation in response to e[CO2] and provide an insight into genomic response to the changing environment