EL "PASS THROUGH" DEL TIPO DE CAMBIO EN LOS PRECIOS DE BIENES TRANSABLES Y NO TRANSABLES EN COSTA RICA

Este trabajo estima el coeficiente de pass through del tipo de cambio en los precios de bienes transables y no transables en Costa Rica, para el corto y el largo plazo. Se utiliza el análisis de mínimos cuadrados para estimar los coeficientes, y se explora la dinámica de ajuste de los modelos utilizando el análisis de vectores auto regresivo. Dentro de los principales resultados del modelo se encontró un coeficiente de pass through para los bienes transables de 13% en el corto plazo y de 68% en el largo plazo; para los bienes no transables, el pass through es de 10% y 52% en el corto y largo plazo respectivamente. En el largo plazo se incluye un 7% de pass through indirecto producto del efecto de los precios de los transables en los de no transables. El estudio de la dinámica de ajuste de los precios de transables y no transables ante un choque del tipo de cambio mostró una duración de 17 y 27 meses respectivamente. Además se realizaron pruebas de causalidad de Granger y estabilidad del modelo. La primera mostró una relación de precedencia entre las variaciones de tipo de cambio e inflación, y entre inflación de los transables y de los no transables. La segunda evidencia un cambio estructural en el modelo de los no transables entre fines de 1995 e inicio de 1996. AbstractThis paper estimates short run and long run coefficients of exchange rate pass through in to the prices of tradable and non tradable goods in Costa Rica. The coefficients are estimated by OLS. A VAR analysis is conducted in order to estimate the dynamic process between exchange rate and inflation. Granger causality test and a stability test are conducted too. The short run pass through coefficients are 13% and 10%, for tradable and non tradable goods respectively and the long run coefficients are 68% and 52% in the same order. There is a second stage pass through of 7% included in the long run coefficient for non tradable goods. The dynamic analysis shows that the adjustment process of prices as a result of an exchange rate shock takes 17 months for tradable goods and 27 months for non tradable goods. The Granger causality test shows precedence between variation in the exchange rate and inflation, and between the prices of tradable and non tradable goods. There is statistical evidence of a structural change in the non tradable model between the end of 1995 and the beginning of 1996.

Causalidade entre o crescimento económico, a emissão de CO2 e o consumo de energias renováveis em Portugal

Mestrado em Métodos Quantitativos para a Decisão Económica e Empresarial

Hepatite Tóxica Induzida por Produtos Fitoterapêuticos: Natural Não é Sinónimo de Seguro

A case of toxic hepatitis induced by a fat burner natural product is reported. Pathogenic mechanisms of hepatotoxicity arediscussed, and causality nexus is analyzed. The goal of this presentation is to alert for the risk of severe adverse events while consuming falsely harmless products.

Clinical aspects associated with syndromic forms of Orofacial Clefts in a Colombian population

Objectives: To present descriptive epidemiology of Orofacial Clefts and to determine the association of syndromic forms with antenatal high-risk conditions, preterm birth, and comorbidities among nestedseries of cases. Methods: A study of nested-series of cases was conducted. Frequencies of cleft type, associated congenital anomalies, syndromic, non-syndromic and multiple malformation forms, and distribution of Orofacial Clefts according to sex and affected-side were determined. Odds ratios were calculated as measures of association between syndromic forms and antenatal high-risk conditions, preterm birth and comorbidities. A total of three hundred and eleven patients with Orofacial Clefts were assessed in a 12-month period. Results: The most frequent type of Orofacial Clefts was cleft lip and palate, this type of cleft was more frequent in males, whereas cleft palate occurred more often in females. The most common cases occurred as non-syndromic forms. Aarskog-Scott syndrome showed the highest frequency amongst syndromic forms. Hypertensive disorders in pregnancy, developmental dysplasia of the hip, central nervous diseases and respiratory failure showed significant statistical associations (p <0.05) with syndromic forms. Conclusions: These data provide an epidemiological reference of Orofacial Clefts in Colombia. Novel associations between syndromic forms and clinical variables are determined. In order to investigate causality relationships between these variables further studies must be carried out.

Clinical aspects associated with syndromic forms of Orofacial Clefts in a Colombian population

Objectives: To present descriptive epidemiology of Orofacial Clefts and to determine the association of syndromic forms with antenatal high-risk conditions, preterm birth, and comorbidities among nested-series of cases. Methods: A study of nested-series of cases was conducted. Frequencies of cleft type, associated congenital anomalies, syndromic, non-syndromic and multiple malformation forms, and distribution of Orofacial Clefts according to sex and affected-side were determined. Odds ratios were calculated as measures of association between syndromic forms and antenatal high-risk conditions, preterm birth and comorbidities. A total of three hundred and eleven patients with Orofacial Clefts were assessed in a 12-month period. Results: The most frequent type of Orofacial Clefts was cleft lip and palate, this type of cleft was more frequent in males, whereas cleft palate occurred more often in females. The most common cases occurred as non-syndromic forms. Aarskog-Scott syndrome showed the highest frequency amongst syndromic forms. Hypertensive disorders in pregnancy, developmental dysplasia of the hip, central nervous diseases and respiratory failure showed significant statistical associations (p <0.05) with syndromic forms. Conclusions: These data provide an epidemiological reference of Orofacial Clefts in Colombia. Novel associations between syndromic forms and clinical variables are determined. In order to investigate causality relationships between these variables further studies must be carried out.

Les retraductions françaises d'Al Moqqadima d'Ibn Khaldoun : étude paratextuelle des retraductions de Vincent-Mansour Monteil (1967) et d’Abdesselam Cheddadi (2002)

Ce mémoire porte sur les retraductions françaises du XXe siècle d’Al Moqaddima (Les Prolégomènes) (1377) d’Ibn Khaldoun, un traité historique et philosophique du XIVe siècle. La première traduction française, Les Prolégomènes, est réalisée par De Slane entre 1840 et 1863. Elle est suivie de deux retraductions, à savoir Discours sur l’histoire universelle (1967- 1968) réalisée par Vincent-Mansour Monteil, et Le Livre des Exemples I : Autobiographie, La Muqaddima (2002) réalisée par Abdesselam Cheddadi. L’objet de ce mémoire est de mener une analyse contextuelle, paratextuelle et discursive de ces deux retraductions de l’œuvre monumentale d’Ibn Khaldoun, afin de dégager les principaux facteurs déterminant, dans chaque cas, le choix de retraduire. Notre approche théorique s’inscrit dans le contexte récent de remise en cause de ladite « hypothèse de la retraduction » d’Antoine Berman, qui privilégie une analyse textuelle de l’œuvre (re)traduite en négligeant quelque peu l’analyse contextuelle éclairant les conditions de production des retraductions, et en limitant le positionnement du traducteur à sa relation envers la « vérité » du texte source. Ainsi, en retraçant l’histoire des différentes éditions des Prolégomènes au XXe siècle, en exposant le contexte qui entoure les retraductions, et en nous nous attachant aux stratégies discursives déployées par les traducteurs en marge de ces dernières, nous tenons compte des réflexions récentes sur les « causalités multiples » du phénomène de la retraduction, tout en montrant comment la subjectivité du traducteur, ses décisions et ses motivations sont reliées à tous les éléments extratextuels ou contextuels mis en valeur par les théoriciens. Nous montrons par notre analyse que les deux retraductions au corpus sont motivées par des facteurs internes au texte (tels que l’authenticité de leur original, une meilleure connaissance du texte, de la langue et de la culture source, la nécessité de corriger des erreurs dans les traductions antérieures), mais aussi par de nouveaux éléments externes au texte (tels que le changement de normes sociales, littéraires et traductionnelles, l’émergence de nouvelles interprétations du texte, le positionnement idéologique du retraducteur, sa volonté de s’imposer comme une autorité, etc.). La retraduction s’avère donc un phénomène complexe motivé par une combinaison de facteurs, à la fois internes (textuels), externes (contextuels) et personnels, propres au (re)traducteur.

Do increases in oil prices precede U.S. recessions?

This thesis examines the relationship between oil prices and economic activity, and it attempts to address the question: do increases in oil prices (oil shocks) precede U.S. recessions? This paper also applied macroeconomics, either through the direct use of a macroeconomic point of view or using a combination of mathematical and statistical models. Two mathematical and statistical models are used to determine the ability of oil prices to predict recessions in the United States. First, using the binary cyclical (Bry-Boschan method) indicator procedure to test the turning point of oil prices compared with turning points in GDP finds that oil prices almost always turn five month before a recession, suggesting that an oil shock might occur before a recession. Second, the Granger causality test shows that oil prices change do Granger cause U.S. recessions, indicating that oil prices are a useful signal to indicate a U.S. recession. Finally, combining this analysis with the literature, there are several potential explanations that the spike in oil prices result in slower GDP growth and are a contributing factor to U.S. recessions.

Funtional Near Infrared Spectroscopy Study of Language, Joint Attention and Motor Skills

Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) is an emerging non-invasive optical neuro imaging technique that monitors the hemodynamic response to brain activation with ms-scale temporal resolution and sub-cm spatial resolution. The overall goal of my dissertation was to develop and apply NIRS towards investigation of neurological response to language, joint attention and planning and execution of motor skills in healthy adults. Language studies were performed to investigate the hemodynamic response, synchrony and dominance feature of the frontal and fronto-temporal cortex of healthy adults in response to language reception and expression. The mathematical model developed based on granger causality explicated the directional flow of information during the processing of language stimuli by the fronto-temporal cortex. Joint attention and planning/ execution of motor skill studies were performed to investigate the hemodynamic response, synchrony and dominance feature of the frontal cortex of healthy adults and in children (5-8 years old) with autism (for joint attention studies) and individuals with cerebral palsy (for planning/execution of motor skills studies). The joint attention studies on healthy adults showed differences in activation as well as intensity and phase dependent connectivity in the frontal cortex during joint attention in comparison to rest. The joint attention studies on typically developing children showed differences in frontal cortical activation in comparison to that in children with autism. The planning and execution of motor skills studies on healthy adults and individuals with cerebral palsy (CP) showed difference in the frontal cortical dominance, that is, bilateral and ipsilateral dominance, respectively. The planning and execution of motor skills studies also demonstrated the plastic and learning behavior of brain wherein correlation was found between the relative change in total hemoglobin in the frontal cortex and the kinematics of the activity performed by the participants. Thus, during my dissertation the NIRS neuroimaging technique was successfully implemented to investigate the neurological response of language, joint attention and planning and execution of motor skills in healthy adults as well as preliminarily on children with autism and individuals with cerebral palsy. These NIRS studies have long-term potential for the design of early stage interventions in children with autism and customized rehabilitation in individuals with cerebral palsy.

The meaning, antecedents and outcomes of employee engagement:a narrative synthesis

The claim that high levels of engagement can enhance organizational performance and individual well-being has not previously been tested through a systematic review of the evidence. To bring coherence to the diffuse body of literature on engagement, the authors conducted a systematic synthesis of narrative evidence involving 214 studies focused on the meaning, antecedents and outcomes of engagement. The authors identified six distinct conceptualizations of engagement, with the field dominated by the Utrecht Group's ‘work engagement’ construct and measure, and by the theorization of engagement within the ‘job demands–resources’ framework. Five groups of factors served as antecedents to engagement: psychological states; job design; leadership; organizational and team factors; and organizational interventions. Engagement was found to be positively associated with individual morale, task performance, extra-role performance and organizational performance, and the evidence was most robust in relation to task performance. However, there was an over-reliance on quantitative, cross-sectional and self-report studies within the field, which limited claims of causality. To address controversies over the commonly used measures and concepts in the field and gaps in the evidence-base, the authors set out an agenda for future research that integrates emerging critical sociological perspectives on engagement with the psychological perspectives that currently dominate the field.

Detecting expressions of blame or praise in text

The growth of social networking platforms has drawn a lot of attentions to the need for social computing. Social computing utilises human insights for computational tasks as well as design of systems that support social behaviours and interactions. One of the key aspects of social computing is the ability to attribute responsibility such as blame or praise to social events. This ability helps an intelligent entity account and understand other intelligent entities’ social behaviours, and enriches both the social functionalities and cognitive aspects of intelligent agents. In this paper, we present an approach with a model for blame and praise detection in text. We build our model based on various theories of blame and include in our model features used by humans determining judgment such as moral agent causality, foreknowledge, intentionality and coercion. An annotated corpus has been created for the task of blame and praise detection from text. The experimental results show that while our model gives similar results compared to supervised classifiers on classifying text as blame, praise or others, it outperforms supervised classifiers on more finer-grained classification of determining the direction of blame and praise, i.e., self-blame, blame-others, self-praise or praise-others, despite not using labelled training data.

Les retraductions françaises d'Al Moqqadima d'Ibn Khaldoun : étude paratextuelle des retraductions de Vincent-Mansour Monteil (1967) et d’Abdesselam Cheddadi (2002)

Ce mémoire porte sur les retraductions françaises du XXe siècle d’Al Moqaddima (Les Prolégomènes) (1377) d’Ibn Khaldoun, un traité historique et philosophique du XIVe siècle. La première traduction française, Les Prolégomènes, est réalisée par De Slane entre 1840 et 1863. Elle est suivie de deux retraductions, à savoir Discours sur l’histoire universelle (1967- 1968) réalisée par Vincent-Mansour Monteil, et Le Livre des Exemples I : Autobiographie, La Muqaddima (2002) réalisée par Abdesselam Cheddadi. L’objet de ce mémoire est de mener une analyse contextuelle, paratextuelle et discursive de ces deux retraductions de l’œuvre monumentale d’Ibn Khaldoun, afin de dégager les principaux facteurs déterminant, dans chaque cas, le choix de retraduire. Notre approche théorique s’inscrit dans le contexte récent de remise en cause de ladite « hypothèse de la retraduction » d’Antoine Berman, qui privilégie une analyse textuelle de l’œuvre (re)traduite en négligeant quelque peu l’analyse contextuelle éclairant les conditions de production des retraductions, et en limitant le positionnement du traducteur à sa relation envers la « vérité » du texte source. Ainsi, en retraçant l’histoire des différentes éditions des Prolégomènes au XXe siècle, en exposant le contexte qui entoure les retraductions, et en nous nous attachant aux stratégies discursives déployées par les traducteurs en marge de ces dernières, nous tenons compte des réflexions récentes sur les « causalités multiples » du phénomène de la retraduction, tout en montrant comment la subjectivité du traducteur, ses décisions et ses motivations sont reliées à tous les éléments extratextuels ou contextuels mis en valeur par les théoriciens. Nous montrons par notre analyse que les deux retraductions au corpus sont motivées par des facteurs internes au texte (tels que l’authenticité de leur original, une meilleure connaissance du texte, de la langue et de la culture source, la nécessité de corriger des erreurs dans les traductions antérieures), mais aussi par de nouveaux éléments externes au texte (tels que le changement de normes sociales, littéraires et traductionnelles, l’émergence de nouvelles interprétations du texte, le positionnement idéologique du retraducteur, sa volonté de s’imposer comme une autorité, etc.). La retraduction s’avère donc un phénomène complexe motivé par une combinaison de facteurs, à la fois internes (textuels), externes (contextuels) et personnels, propres au (re)traducteur.

El daño y el nexo causal en la perdida de oportunidad

El presente escrito se ocupa de estudiar el nexo de causalidad como elemento estructural de la responsabilidad cuando éste es difuso. Para ello, se pretende abordar la pérdida de la oportunidad como una teoría especial de causalidad que tiene lugar cuando el nexo causal no resulta claro, lo cual contradice la tesis preponderante de la doctrina y la jurisprudencia tradicional según la cual, la pérdida de la oportunidad es un criterio autónomo del daño. En su contenido se realiza una explicación del por qué se entiende la pérdida de la oportunidad como una teoría especial de causalidad y no como un criterio autónomo de daño, haciendo énfasis en el elemento de certeza que caracteriza al daño. Posteriormente, se advierte del tratamiento que la jurisprudencia le ha dado a la pérdida de la oportunidad. A su turno, el presente documento, indica la naturaleza jurídica de la pérdida de la oportunidad, afirmando que es una inferencia lógica que realiza el juez y no un hecho que altere el estado de las cosas como si sucede con el daño. Finalmente, se aborda la prueba de la teoría de la pérdida de la oportunidad mediante un cálculo de probabilidades y se identifican los pasos para realizar una adecuada reparación integral.

Preschoolers’ free play - connections with emotional and social functioning

Play has an important role in various aspects of children’s development. However, time for free play has declined substantially over the last decades. To date, few studies have focused on the relationship between opportunities for free play and children’s social functioning. The aims of this study are to examine whether children ́s free play is related to their social functioning and whether this relationship is mediated by children ́s emotional functioning. Seventy-eight children (age, 55- 77 months) were tested on their theory of mind and emotion understanding. Parents reported on their children’s time for free play, empathic abilities, social competence and externalizing behaviors. The main findings showed that free play and children’s theory of mind are negatively related to externalizing behaviors. Empathy was strongly related to children’s social competence, but free play and social competence were not associated. Less time for free play is related to more disruptive behaviors in preschool children, however certain emotional functioning skills influence these behaviors independently of the time children have for free play. These outcomes suggest that free play might help to prevent the development of disruptive behaviors, but future studies should further examine the causality of this relationship.

A controversial debate between financial speculation and changes in agricultural commodity spot prices

Some research works state that speculation with agricultural commodities on the futures market has risen agricultural commodity spot prices. This research work analyzes the causal relationships between spot prices of corn, wheat, and soybean and agricultural commodity futures trading activities. These causal relationships between agricultural commodity spot prices and financial variables are tested for Granger-causality. Model results show that causal relationships have been found among changes in “volume traded” and “open positions” of futures contracts and changes in spot prices for corn. These results do not show that financial speculation might be a major driver of rising agricultural commodity prices.

Timeliness, efficiency and public procurement in hip surgery in Italy

Considering different perspectives, the scope of this thesis is to investigate how to improve healthcare resources allocation and the provision efficiency for hip surgeries, a resource-intensive operation, among the most frequently performed on the elderly, with a trend in volume that is increasing in years due to population aging. Firstly, the effect of Time-To-Surgery (TTS) on mortality for hip fracture patients is investigated. The analysis attempts to account for TTS endogeneity due to the inability to fully control for variables affecting patient delay – e.g. patient severity. Exploiting an instrumental variable model, where being admitted on Friday or Saturday predicts longer TTS, findings show exogenous TTS does not have a significant effect on mortality. Thus suggesting surgeons prioritize patients effectively, neutralizing the adverse impact of longer TTS. Then, the volume-outcome relation for total hip replacement surgery is analyzed, seeking to account for selective referral, which may be present in elective surgery context, and induce reverse causality issue in the volume-outcome relation. The analysis employs a conditional choice model where patient travel distance from all regions' hospitals is used as a hospital choice predictor. Findings show the exogenous hospital volume significantly decreases adverse outcomes probability, especially in the short run. Finally, the change in public procurement design enforced in the Romagna LHA (Italy) is exploited to assess its impact on hip prostheses cost, surgeons' implant choice, and patient health outcomes. Hip prostheses are the major cost-driver of hip replacement surgeries, hence it is crucial to design the public tender such that implant prices are minimized, but cost-containment policies have to be weighted with patient well-being. Evidence shows that a cost reduction occurred without a significant surgeons’ choices impact. Positive or no effect of surgeons specialization is found on patients outcomes after the new procurement introduction.