Essays on the Bioeconomics of the Northern Baltic Fisheries

World marine fisheries suffer from economic and biological overfishing: too many vessels are harvesting too few fish stocks. Fisheries economics has explained the causes of overfishing and provided a theoretical background for management systems capable of solving the problem. Yet only a few examples of fisheries managed by the principles of the bioeconomic theory exist. With the aim of bridging the gap between the actual fish stock assessment models used to provide management advice and economic optimisation models, the thesis explores economically sound harvesting from national and international perspectives. Using data calibrated for the Baltic salmon and herring stocks, optimal harvesting policies are outlined using numerical methods. First, the thesis focuses on the socially optimal harvest of a single salmon stock by commercial and recreational fisheries. The results obtained using dynamic programming show that the optimal fishery configuration would be to close down three out of the five studied fisheries. The result is robust to stock size fluctuations. Compared to a base case situation, the optimal fleet structure would yield a slight decrease in the commercial catch, but a recreational catch that is nearly seven times higher. As a result, the expected economic net benefits from the fishery would increase nearly 60%, and the expected number of juvenile salmon (smolt) would increase by 30%. Second, the thesis explores the management of multiple salmon stocks in an international framework. Non-cooperative and cooperative game theory are used to demonstrate different "what if" scenarios. The results of the four player game suggest that, despite the commonly agreed fishing quota, the behaviour of the countries has been closer to non-cooperation than cooperation. Cooperation would more than double the net benefits from the fishery compared to a past fisheries policy. Side payments, however, are a prerequisite for a cooperative solution. Third, the thesis applies coalitional games in the partition function form to study whether the cooperative solution would be stable despite the potential presence of positive externalities. The results show that the cooperation of two out of four studied countries can be stable. Compared to a past fisheries policy, a stable coalition structure would provide substantial economic benefits. Nevertheless, the status of the salmon stocks would not improve significantly. Fourth, the thesis studies the prerequisites for and potential consequences of the implementation of an individual transferable quota (ITQ) system in the Finnish herring fishery. Simulation results suggest that ITQs would result in a decrease in the number of fishing vessels, but enables positive profits to overlap with a higher stock size. The empirical findings of the thesis affirm that the profitability of the studied fisheries could be improved. The evidence, however, indicates that incentives for free riding exist, and thus the most preferable outcome both in economic and biological terms is elusive.

Biological and economic management strategy evaluations of the eastern king prawn fishery

Stock assessment of the eastern king prawn (EKP) fishery, and the subsequent advice to management and industry, could be improved by addressing a number of issues. The recruitment dynamics of EKP in the northern (i.e., North Reef to the Swain Reefs) parts of the fishery need to be clarified. Fishers report that the size of the prawns from these areas when they recruit to the fishing grounds is resulting in suboptimal sizes/ages at first capture, and therefore localised growth overfishing. There is a need to assess alternative harvest strategies of the EKP fishery, via computer simulations, particularly seasonal and monthly or lunar-based closures to identify scenarios that improve the value of the catch, decrease costs and reduce the risk of overfishing, prior to implementing new management measures.

Environmental and fishing effects on the dynamics of brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay (Australia)

This analysis of the variations of brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) catch in Moreton Bay multispecies trawl fishery estimated catchability using a delay difference model. It integrated several factors responsible for variations in catchability: targeting of fishing effort, increasing fishing power and changing availability. An analysis of covariance was used to define fishing events targeted at brown tiger prawns. A general linear model estimated inter-annual variations of fishing power. Temperature-induced changes in prawn behaviour played an important role on the dynamics of this fishery. Maximum likelihood estimates of targeted catchability (4.09 ± 0.42 × 10−4 boat-day−1) were twice as large as non-targeted catchability (1.86 ± 0.25 × 10−4 boat-day−1). The causes of recent declines in fishing effort in this fishery were discussed.

Short-term survival of discarded pearl perch (Glaucosoma scapulare Ramsay, 1881) caught by hook-and-line in Queensland, Australia

Post-release survival of line-caught pearl perch (Glaucosoma scapulare) was assessed via field experiments where fish were angled using methods similar to those used by commercial, recreational and charter fishers. One hundred and eighty-three individuals were caught during four experiments, of which >91% survived up to three days post-capture. Hook location was found to be the best predictor of survival, with the survival of throat- or stomach-hooked pearl perch significantly (P < 0.05) lower than those hooked in either the mouth or lip. Post-release survival was similar for both legal (≥35 cm) and sub-legal (<35 cm) pearl perch, while those individuals showing no signs of barotrauma were more likely to survive in the short term. Examination of the swim bladders in the laboratory, combined with observations in the field, revealed that swim bladders rupture during ascent from depth allowing swim bladder gases to escape into the gut cavity. As angled fish approach the surface, the alimentary tract ruptures near the anus allowing swim bladder gases to escape the gut cavity. As a result, very few pearl perch exhibit barotrauma symptoms and no barotrauma mitigation strategies were recommended. The results of this study show that pearl perch are relatively resilient to catch-and-release suggesting that post-release mortality would not contribute significantly to total fishing mortality. We recommend the use of circle hooks, fished actively on tight lines, combined with minimal handling in order to maximise the post-release survival of pearl perch.

Evidence of package trading in a mature multi-species ITQ market

In multi-species fisheries managed under ITQs, the existence of joint production may lead to complex catch-quota balancing issues. Previous modelling and experimental research suggest that, in such fisheries, some fishers may benefit from the ability to trade packages of fishing quotas, rather than fulfil their quota needs by simultaneously bidding on separate single-species quota markets. This note presents evidence of naturally occurring package trades in a real fishery. Based on this evidence, we suggest that further empirical and modelling research is required on the potential and limitations of package quota trading in mixed fisheries managed with ITQs. © 2014.

Surviving the effects of barotrauma: assessing treatment options and a ‘natural’ remedy to enhance the release survival of line caught pink snapper (Pagrus auratus)

A new technique to ameliorate the effects of barotrauma was tested based on observations of pink snapper, Pagrus auratus (Forster), inadvertently piercing their everted stomach with their teeth and releasing trapped swim bladder gases. This technique was termed buccal venting and involved piercing the everted stomach protruding into the buccal cavity or out of the mouth with a 16-gauge hypodermic needle (a practice previously not encouraged). Short-term (~3 days) survival of buccal-vented fish was not significantly different from laterally vented fish nor untreated controls. Both buccal and lateral venting techniques were shown to cause no harm and allowed fish to return to depth. The short-term (1–3 days) post-release survival of line caught snapper was 88% with no significant difference in survival across three depth ranges tested (37–50, 51–100 and 101–180 m). Survival of sublegal pink snapper (<35 cm TL) was not significantly different (P > 0.05) from that of legal-sized fish (≥35 cm TL). Healing of the swim bladder was observed in 27% of pink snapper dissected after ≤3 days in captivity, and healing of stomachs was observed in 64% of pink snapper that had been buccal vented. Relatively high post-release survival rates of line caught pink snapper may offer some protection for snapper stocks where high fishing pressure and legal size restrictions result in the majority of the catch having to be released.

An improved real-time PCR assay for the detection of Old World screwworm flies

The Old World screwworm (OWS) fly, Chrysomya bezziana, is a serious pest of livestock, wildlife and humans in tropical Africa, parts of the Middle East, the Indian subcontinent, south-east Asia and Papua New Guinea. Although to date Australia remains free of OWS flies, an incursion would have serious economic and animal welfare implications. For these reasons Australia has an OWS fly preparedness plan including OWS fly surveillance with fly traps. The recent development of an improved OWS fly trap and synthetic attractant and a specific and sensitive real-time PCR molecular assay for the detection of OWS flies in trap catches has improved Australia's OWS fly surveillance capabilities. Because all Australian trap samples gave negative results in the PCR assay, it was deemed necessary to include a positive control mechanism to ensure that fly DNA was being successfully extracted and amplified and to guard against false negative results. A new non-competitive internal amplification control (IAC) has been developed that can be used in conjunction with the OWS fly PCR assay in a multiplexed single-tube reaction. The multiplexed assay provides an indicator of the performance of DNA extraction and amplification without greatly increasing labour or reagent costs. The fly IAC targets a region of the ribosomal 16S mitochondrial DNA which is conserved across at least six genera of commonly trapped flies. Compared to the OWS fly assay alone, the multiplexed OWS fly and fly IAC assay displayed no loss in sensitivity or specificity for OWS fly detection. The multiplexed OWS fly and fly IAC assay provides greater confidence for trap catch samples returning negative OWS fly results. © 2014 International Atomic Energy Agency.

Micro-economic drivers of profitability in an ITQ-managed fishery: An analysis of the Queensland Coral Reef Fin-Fish Fishery

An economic survey of the commercial operators currently active in the Queensland Coral Reef Fin-Fish Fishery has been carried out, as part of a research project aimed at evaluating alternative management options for this fishery. This paper presents the background analysis used as a basis to develop the sampling design for this survey. The background analysis focuses on activity patterns of the fleet based on effort and catch information, as well as patterns of quota ownership. Based on this information, a fishing business profile describing the micro-economic structure of fishing operations is developed. This profile, in conjunction with the qualitative information gained in undertaking the economic surveys, allows preliminary understanding of the key drivers of profitability in the CRFFF, and possible impacts of external factors on fishing operations.

Stock assessment of the Queensland east coast common coral trout (Plectropomus leopardus) fishery

Common coral trout Plectropomus leopardus is an iconic fish of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and is the most important fish for the commercial fishery there. Most of the catch is exported live to Asia. This stock assessment was undertaken in response to falls in catch sizes and catch rates in recent years, in order to gauge the status of the stock. It is the first stock assessment ever conducted of coral trout on the GBR, and brings together a multitude of different data sources for the first time. The GBR is very large and was divided into a regional structure based on the Bioregions defined by expert committees appointed by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) as part of the 2004 rezoning of the GBR. The regional structure consists of six Regions, from the Far Northern Region in the north to the Swains and Capricorn–Bunker Regions in the south. Regions also closely follow the boundaries between Bioregions. Two of the northern Regions are split into Subregions on the basis of potential changes in fishing intensity between the Subregions; there are nine Subregions altogether, which include four Regions that are not split. Bioregions are split into Subbioregions along the Subregion boundaries. Finally, each Subbioregion is split into a “blue” population which is open to fishing and a “green” population which is closed to fishing. The fishery is unusual in that catch rates as an indicator of abundance of coral trout are heavily influenced by tropical cyclones. After a major cyclone, catch rates fall for two to three years, and rebound after that. This effect is well correlated with the times of occurrence of cyclones, and usually occurs in the same month that the cyclone strikes. However, statistical analyses correlating catch rates with cyclone wind energy did not provide significantly different catch rate trends. Alternative indicators of cyclone strength may explain more of the catch rate decline, and future work should investigate this. Another feature of catch rates is the phenomenon of social learning in coral trout populations, whereby when a population of coral trout is fished, individuals quickly learn not to take bait. Then the catch rate falls sharply even when the population size is still high. The social learning may take place by fish directly observing their fellows being hooked, or perhaps heeding a chemo-sensory cue emitted by fish that are hooked. As part of the assessment, analysis of data from replenishment closures of Boult Reef in the Capricorn–Bunker Region (closed 1983–86) and Bramble Reef in the Townsville Subregion (closed 1992–95) estimated a strong social learning effect. A major data source for the stock assessment was the large collection of underwater visual survey (UVS) data collected by divers who counted the coral trout that they sighted. This allowed estimation of the density of coral trout in the different Bioregions (expressed as a number of fish per hectare). Combined with mapping data of all the 3000 or so reefs making up the GBR, the UVS results provided direct estimates of the population size in each Subbioregion. A regional population dynamic model was developed to account for the intricacies of coral trout population dynamics and catch rates. Because the statistical analysis of catch rates did not attribute much of the decline to tropical cyclones, (and thereby implied “real” declines in biomass), and because in contrast the UVS data indicate relatively stable population sizes, model outputs were unduly influenced by the unlikely hypothesis that falling catch rates are real. The alternative hypothesis that UVS data are closer to the mark and declining catch rates are an artefact of spurious (e.g., cyclone impact) effects is much more probable. Judging by the population size estimates provided by the UVS data, there is no biological problem with the status of coral trout stocks. The estimate of the total number of Plectropomus leopardus on blue zones on the GBR in the mid-1980s (the time of the major UVS series) was 5.34 million legal-sized fish, or about 8400 t exploitable biomass, with an 2 additional 3350 t in green zones (using the current zoning which was introduced on 1 July 2004). For the offshore regions favoured by commercial fishers, the figure was about 4.90 million legal-sized fish in blue zones, or about 7700 t exploitable biomass. There is, however, an economic problem, as indicated by relatively low catch rates and anecdotal information provided by commercial fishers. The costs of fishing the GBR by hook and line (the only method compatible with the GBR’s high conservation status) are high, and commercial fishers are unable to operate profitably when catch rates are depressed (e.g., from a tropical cyclone). The economic problem is compounded by the effect of social learning in coral trout, whereby catch rates fall rapidly if fishers keep returning to the same fishing locations. In response, commercial fishers tend to spread out over the GBR, including the Far Northern and Swains Regions which are far from port and incur higher travel costs. The economic problem provides some logic to a reduction in the TACC. Such a reduction during good times, such as when the fishery is rebounding after a major tropical cyclone, could provide a net benefit to the fishery, as it would provide a margin of stock safety and make the fishery more economically robust by providing higher catch rates during subsequent periods of depressed catches. During hard times when catch rates are low (e.g., shortly after a major tropical cyclone), a change to the TACC would have little effect as even a reduced TACC would not come close to being filled. Quota adjustments based on catch rates should take account of long-term trends in order to mitigate variability and cyclone effects in data.

Deriving optimal fishing effort for managing Australia's Moreton Bay multispecies trawl fishery with aggregated effort data

Deriving an estimate of optimal fishing effort or even an approximate estimate is very valuable for managing fisheries with multiple target species. The most challenging task associated with this is allocating effort to individual species when only the total effort is recorded. Spatial information on the distribution of each species within a fishery can be used to justify the allocations, but often such information is not available. To determine the long-term overall effort required to achieve maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and maximum economic yield (MEY), we consider three methods for allocating effort: (i) optimal allocation, which optimally allocates effort among target species; (ii) fixed proportions, which chooses proportions based on past catch data; and (iii) economic allocation, which splits effort based on the expected catch value of each species. Determining the overall fishing effort required to achieve these management objectives is a maximizing problem subject to constraints due to economic and social considerations. We illustrated the approaches using a case study of the Moreton Bay Prawn Trawl Fishery in Queensland (Australia). The results were consistent across the three methods. Importantly, our analysis demonstrated the optimal total effort was very sensitive to daily fishing costs—the effort ranged from 9500–11 500 to 6000–7000, 4000 and 2500 boat-days, using daily cost estimates of $0, $500, $750, and $950, respectively. The zero daily cost corresponds to the MSY, while a daily cost of $750 most closely represents the actual present fishing cost. Given the recent debate on which costs should be factored into the analyses for deriving MEY, our findings highlight the importance of including an appropriate cost function for practical management advice. The approaches developed here could be applied to other multispecies fisheries where only aggregated fishing effort data are recorded, as the literature on this type of modelling is sparse.

Demographic and functional responses of wild dogs to poison baiting

Lethal control of wild dogs - that is Dingo (Canis lupus dingo) and Dingo/Dog (Canis lupus familiaris) hybrids - to reduce livestock predation in Australian rangelands is claimed to cause continental-scale impacts on biodiversity. Although top predator populations may recover numerically after baiting, they are predicted to be functionally different and incapable of fulfilling critical ecological roles. This study reports the impact of baiting programmes on wild dog abundance, age structures and the prey of wild dogs during large-scale manipulative experiments. Wild dog relative abundance almost always decreased after baiting, but reductions were variable and short-lived unless the prior baiting programme was particularly effective or there were follow-up baiting programmes within a few months. However, age structures of wild dogs in baited and nil-treatment areas were demonstrably different, and prey populations did diverge relative to nil-treatment areas. Re-analysed observations of wild dogs preying on kangaroos from a separate study show that successful chases that result in attacks of kangaroos by wild dogs occurred when mean wild dog ages were higher and mean group size was larger. It is likely that the impact of lethal control on wild dog numbers, group sizes and age structures compromise their ability to handle large difficult-to-catch prey. Under certain circumstances, these changes sometimes lead to increased calf loss (Bos indicus/B. taurus genotypes) and kangaroo numbers. Rangeland beef producers could consider controlling wild dogs in high-risk periods when predation is more likely and avoid baiting at other times.

Bayesian fisheries stock assessment: integrating and updating knowledge

In this thesis the use of the Bayesian approach to statistical inference in fisheries stock assessment is studied. The work was conducted in collaboration of the Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute by using the problem of monitoring and prediction of the juvenile salmon population in the River Tornionjoki as an example application. The River Tornionjoki is the largest salmon river flowing into the Baltic Sea. This thesis tackles the issues of model formulation and model checking as well as computational problems related to Bayesian modelling in the context of fisheries stock assessment. Each article of the thesis provides a novel method either for extracting information from data obtained via a particular type of sampling system or for integrating the information about the fish stock from multiple sources in terms of a population dynamics model. Mark-recapture and removal sampling schemes and a random catch sampling method are covered for the estimation of the population size. In addition, a method for estimating the stock composition of a salmon catch based on DNA samples is also presented. For most of the articles, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been used as a tool to approximate the posterior distribution. Problems arising from the sampling method are also briefly discussed and potential solutions for these problems are proposed. Special emphasis in the discussion is given to the philosophical foundation of the Bayesian approach in the context of fisheries stock assessment. It is argued that the role of subjective prior knowledge needed in practically all parts of a Bayesian model should be recognized and consequently fully utilised in the process of model formulation.

Large-scale expansion of no-take closures within the Great Barrier Reef has not enhanced fishery production

A rare opportunity to test hypotheses about potential fishery benefits of large-scale closures was initiated in July 2004 when an additional 28.4% of the 348 000 km2 Great Barrier Reef (GBR) region of Queensland, Australia was closed to all fishing. Advice to the Australian and Queensland governments that supported this initiative predicted these additional closures would generate minimal (10%) initial reductions in both catch and landed value within the GBR area, with recovery of catches becoming apparent after three years. To test these predictions, commercial fisheries data from the GBR area and from the two adjacent (non-GBR) areas of Queensland were compared for the periods immediately before and after the closures were implemented. The observed means for total annual catch and value within the GBR declined from pre-closure (2000–2003) levels of 12 780 Mg and Australian $160 million, to initial post-closure (2005–2008) levels of 8143 Mg and $102 million; decreases of 35% and 36% respectively. Because the reference areas in the non-GBR had minimal changes in catch and value, the beyond-BACI (before, after, control, impact) analyses estimated initial net reductions within the GBR of 35% for both total catch and value. There was no evidence of recovery in total catch levels or any comparative improvement in catch rates within the GBR nine years after implementation. These results are not consistent with the advice to governments that the closures would have minimal initial impacts and rapidly generate benefits to fisheries in the GBR through increased juvenile recruitment and adult spillovers. Instead, the absence of evidence of recovery in catches to date currently supports an alternative hypothesis that where there is already effective fisheries management, the closing of areas to all fishing will generate reductions in overall catches similar to the percentage of the fished area that is closed.

Short-term survival of discarded pearl perch (Glaucosoma scapulare Ramsay, 1881) caught by hook-and-line in Queensland, Australia

Post-release survival of line-caught pearl perch (Glaucosoma scapulare) was assessed via field experiments where fish were angled using methods similar to those used by commercial, recreational and charter fishers. One hundred and eighty-three individuals were caught during four experiments, of which >91 survived up to three days post-capture. Hook location was found to be the best predictor of survival, with the survival of throat- or stomach-hooked pearl perch significantly (P < 0.05) lower than those hooked in either the mouth or lip. Post-release survival was similar for both legal (≥35 cm) and sub-legal (<35 cm) pearl perch, while those individuals showing no signs of barotrauma were more likely to survive in the short term. Examination of the swim bladders in the laboratory, combined with observations in the field, revealed that swim bladders rupture during ascent from depth allowing swim bladder gases to escape into the gut cavity. As angled fish approach the surface, the alimentary tract ruptures near the anus allowing swim bladder gases to escape the gut cavity. As a result, very few pearl perch exhibit barotrauma symptoms and no barotrauma mitigation strategies were recommended. The results of this study show that pearl perch are relatively resilient to catch-and-release suggesting that post-release mortality would not contribute significantly to total fishing mortality. We recommend the use of circle hooks, fished actively on tight lines, combined with minimal handling in order to maximise the post-release survival of pearl perch.

Sugarcane productivity response to different fallow and soybean residue management practices in the Bundaberg district

GRAIN LEGUME ROTATIONS underpin the sustainability of the Australian sugarcane farming system, offering a number of soil health and environmental benefits. Recent studies have highlighted the potential for these breaks to exacerbate nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. An experiment was implemented in 2012 to evaluate the impact of two fallow management options (bare fallow and soybean break crop) and different soybean residue management practices on N2O emissions and sugarcane productivity. The bare fallow plots were conventionally tilled, whereas the soybean treatments were either tilled, not tilled, residue sprayed with nitrification inhibitor (DMPP) prior to tillage or had a triticale ‘catch crop’ sown between the soybean and sugarcane crops. The fallow plots received either no nitrogen (N0) or fully fertilised (N145) whereas the soybean treatments received 25 kg N/ha at planting only. The Fallow N145 treatment yielded 8% more cane than the soybean tilled treatment. However there was no statistical difference in sugar productivity. Cane yield was correlated with stalk number that was correlated to soil mineral nitrogen status in January. There was only 30% more N/ha in the above-ground biomass between the Fallow N145 and the Fallow N0 treatment; highlighting poor fertiliser nitrogen use efficiency. Supplying adequate nitrogen to meet productivity requirements without causing environmental harm remains a challenge for the Australian sugar industry. The soybean direct drill treatment significantly reduced N2O emissions and produced similar yields and profitability to the soybean tilled treatment (outlined in a companion paper by Wang et.al. in these proceedings). Furthermore, this study has highlighted that the soybean direct drill technique provides an opportunity to enable grain legume cropping in the sugarcane farming system to capture all of the soil health/environmental benefits without exacerbating N2O emissions from Australian sugarcane soils.