Strategy and Circumstance: the Response of American Firms to Japanese Competition in Semiconductors, 1980-1995

The transistor was an American invention, and American firms led the world in semiconductor production and innovation for the first three decades of that industry's existence. In the 1980s, however, Japanese producers began to challenge American dominance. Shrill cries arose from the literature of public policy, warning that the American semiconductor industry would soon share the fate of the lamented American consumer electronics business. Few dissented from the implications: the only hope for salvation would be to adopt Japanese-style public policies and imitate the kinds of capabilities Japanese firms possessed. But the predicted extinction never occurred. Instead, American firms surged back during the 1990s, and it now seems the Japanese who are embattled. This striking American turnaround has gone largely unremarked upon in the public policy literature. And even scholarship in strategic management, which thrives on stories of success instead of stories of failure, has been comparatively silent. Drawing on a more thorough economic history of the worldwide semiconductor industry (Langlois and Steinmueller 1999), this essay attempts to collect some of the lessons for strategy research of the American resurgence. We argue that, although some of the American response did consist in changing or augmenting capabilities, most of the renewed American success is in fact the result not of imitating superior Japanese capabilities but rather of taking good advantage of a set of capabilities developed in the heyday of American dominance. Serendipity played at least as important a role as did strategy.

Outcome-based adaptive randomization for binary data in clinical trials---Compare and contrast

Monte Carlo simulation has been conducted to investigate parameter estimation and hypothesis testing in some well known adaptive randomization procedures. The four urn models studied are Randomized Play-the-Winner (RPW), Randomized Pôlya Urn (RPU), Birth and Death Urn with Immigration (BDUI), and Drop-the-Loses Urn (DL). Two sequential estimation methods, the sequential maximum likelihood estimation (SMLE) and the doubly adaptive biased coin design (DABC), are simulated at three optimal allocation targets that minimize the expected number of failures under the assumption of constant variance of simple difference (RSIHR), relative risk (ORR), and odds ratio (OOR) respectively. Log likelihood ratio test and three Wald-type tests (simple difference, log of relative risk, log of odds ratio) are compared in different adaptive procedures. ^ Simulation results indicates that although RPW is slightly better in assigning more patients to the superior treatment, the DL method is considerably less variable and the test statistics have better normality. When compared with SMLE, DABC has slightly higher overall response rate with lower variance, but has larger bias and variance in parameter estimation. Additionally, the test statistics in SMLE have better normality and lower type I error rate, and the power of hypothesis testing is more comparable with the equal randomization. Usually, RSIHR has the highest power among the 3 optimal allocation ratios. However, the ORR allocation has better power and lower type I error rate when the log of relative risk is the test statistics. The number of expected failures in ORR is smaller than RSIHR. It is also shown that the simple difference of response rates has the worst normality among all 4 test statistics. The power of hypothesis test is always inflated when simple difference is used. On the other hand, the normality of the log likelihood ratio test statistics is robust against the change of adaptive randomization procedures. ^

Modeling the survival of T-cell lymphocytes using compound branching processes

Radiotherapy has been a method of choice in cancer treatment for a number of years. Mathematical modeling is an important tool in studying the survival behavior of any cell as well as its radiosensitivity. One particular cell under investigation is the normal T-cell, the radiosensitivity of which may be indicative to the patient's tolerance to radiation doses.^ The model derived is a compound branching process with a random initial population of T-cells that is assumed to have compound distribution. T-cells in any generation are assumed to double or die at random lengths of time. This population is assumed to undergo a random number of generations within a period of time. The model is then used to obtain an estimate for the survival probability of T-cells for the data under investigation. This estimate is derived iteratively by applying the likelihood principle. Further assessment of the validity of the model is performed by simulating a number of subjects under this model.^ This study shows that there is a great deal of variation in T-cells survival from one individual to another. These variations can be observed under normal conditions as well as under radiotherapy. The findings are in agreement with a recent study and show that genetic diversity plays a role in determining the survival of T-cells. ^

Logistic regression with incompletely observed binary

Logistic regression is one of the most important tools in the analysis of epidemiological and clinical data. Such data often contain missing values for one or more variables. Common practice is to eliminate all individuals for whom any information is missing. This deletion approach does not make efficient use of available information and often introduces bias.^ Two methods were developed to estimate logistic regression coefficients for mixed dichotomous and continuous covariates including partially observed binary covariates. The data were assumed missing at random (MAR). One method (PD) used predictive distribution as weight to calculate the average of the logistic regressions performing on all possible values of missing observations, and the second method (RS) used a variant of resampling technique. Additional seven methods were compared with these two approaches in a simulation study. They are: (1) Analysis based on only the complete cases, (2) Substituting the mean of the observed values for the missing value, (3) An imputation technique based on the proportions of observed data, (4) Regressing the partially observed covariates on the remaining continuous covariates, (5) Regressing the partially observed covariates on the remaining continuous covariates conditional on response variable, (6) Regressing the partially observed covariates on the remaining continuous covariates and response variable, and (7) EM algorithm. Both proposed methods showed smaller standard errors (s.e.) for the coefficient involving the partially observed covariate and for the other coefficients as well. However, both methods, especially PD, are computationally demanding; thus for analysis of large data sets with partially observed covariates, further refinement of these approaches is needed. ^

A relationship between aerosol transport and compound-specific d13C land plant biomarker and pollen records

We examined near-surface, late Holocene deep-sea sediments at nine sites on a north-south transect from the Congo Fan (4°S) to the Cape Basin (30°S) along the Southwest African continental margin. Contents, distribution patterns and molecular stable carbon isotope signatures of long-chain n-alkanes (C27-C33) and n-alkanols (C22-C32) are indicators of land plant vegetation of different biosynthetic types, which can be correlated with concentrations and distributions of pollen taxa in the same sediments. Calculated clusters of wind trajectories and satellite Aerosol Index imagery afford information on the source areas for the lipids and pollen on land and their transport pathways to the ocean sites. This multidisciplinary approach on an almost continental scale provides clear evidence of latitudinal differences in lipid and pollen composition paralleling the major phytogeographic zonations on the adjacent continent. Dust and smoke aerosols are mainly derived from the western and central South African hinterland dominated by deserts, semi-deserts and savannah regions rich in C4 and CAM plants. The northern sites (Congo Fan area and northern Angola Basin), which get most of their terrestrial material from the Congo Basin and the Angolan highlands, may also receive some material from the Chad region. Very little aerosol from the African continent is transported to the most southerly sites in the Cape Basin. As can be expected from the present position of the phytogeographic zones, the carbon isotopic signatures of the n-alkanes and n-alkanols both become isotopically more enriched in 13C from north to south. The results of the study suggest that this combination of pollen data and compound-specific isotope geochemical proxies can be effectively applied in the reconstruction of past continental phytogeographic developments.

Compound specific stable isotopes, BIT, pollen and spores of Miocene to Pliocene sediments of ODP Hole 175-1085A

Pollen and stable carbon (d13C) and hydrogen (dD) isotope ratios of terrestrial plant wax from the South Atlantic sediment core, ODP Site 1085, is used to reconstruct Miocene to Pliocene changes of vegetation and rainfall regime of western southern Africa. Our results reveal changes in the relative amount of precipitation and indicate a shift of the main moisture source from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean during the onset of a major aridification 8 Ma ago. We emphasise the importance of declining precipitation during the expansion of C4 and CAM (mainly succulent) vegetation in South Africa. We suggest that the C4 plant expansion resulted from an increased equator-pole temperature gradient caused by the initiation of strong Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation following the shoaling of the Central American Seaway during the Late Miocene.

Chemical characterization and quantification of the brown algal storage compound laminarin

In search of a meaningful stress indicator for Fucus vesiculosus we found that the often used quantitative determination procedures for the polysaccharide laminarin (beta-1,3-glucan) result in different kind of problems, uncertainties and limitations. This chemical long-term storage form of carbon enables perennial brown algae in seasonally fluctuating ecosystems to uncouple growth from photosynthesis. Because of this high ecological relevance a reliable and precise method for determination and quantification of laminarin is needed. Therefore, a simple, cold water extraction method coupled to a new quantitative liquid chromatography-mass spectrometrical method (LC-MS) was developed. Laminarin was determined in nine out of twelve brown algal species, and its expected typical molar mass distribution of 2000-7000 Da was confirmed. Furthermore, laminarin consisted of a complex mixture of different chemical forms, since fifteen chemical laminarin species with distinct molecular weights were measured in nine species of brown algae. Laminarin concentrations in the algal tissues ranged from 0.03 to 0.86% dry weight (DW). The direct chemical characterization and quantification of laminarin by LC-MS represents a powerful method to verify the biochemical and ecological importance of laminarin for brown algae. Single individuals of Laminaria hyperborea, L. digitata, Saccharina latissima, F. serratus, F. vesiculosus, F. spiralis, Himanthalia elongata, Cystoseira tamariscifolia, Pelvetia canaliculata, Ascophyllum nodosum, Halidrys siliquosa and Dictyota dichotoma were collected in fall (18.11.2013) during spring low tide from the shore of Finavarra, Co. Clare, west coast of Ireland (53° 09' 25'' N, 09° 06' 58'' W). After sampling, the different algae were immediately transported to the lab, lyophilized and sent to the University of Rostock. Laminarin was extracted with cold ultrapure water from the algal samples. Before extraction they were ground to < 1 mm grain size with an analytical mill (Ika MF 10 Basic). The algal material (approx. 1.5 g DW) was extracted in ultrapure water (8 mL) on a shaker (250 rpm) for 5 h. After the addition of surplus ultrapure water (4 mL) and shaking manually, 1 mL of the sample was filter centrifuged (45 µm) at 14,000 rpm (Hettich Mikro 22 R). The slightly viscous supernatant was free of suspended material and converted into a microvial (300 µL) for further analysis. The extracts were analyzed using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) analysis (LTQ Velos Pro ion trap spectrometer with Accela HPLC, Thermo Scientific). Laminarin species were separated on a KinetexTM column (2.6 µm C18, 150 x 3 mm). The mobile phase was 90 % ultrapure water and 10 % acetonitrile, run isocratically at a flow rate of 0.2 mL min-1. MS was working in ESI negative ion mode in a mass range of 100 - 4000 amu. Glucose contents were determined after extraction using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Extracted samples were analyzed in an HPLC (SmartLine, Knauer GmbH) equipped with a SUPELCOGELTM Ca column (30 x 7,8 mm without preColumn) and RI-detector (S2300 PDA S2800). Water was used as eluent at a flow rate of 0.8 mL min-1 at 75 °C. Glucose was quantified by comparison of the retention time and peak area with standard solutions using ChromGate software. Mannitol was extracted from three subsamples of 10-20 mg powdered alga material (L. hyperborea, L. digitata, S. latissima, F. serratus, F. vesiculosus, F. spiralis, H. elongata, P. canaliculata, A. nodosum, H. siliquosa) and quantified, following the HPLC method described by Karsten et al. (1991). For analyzing carbon and nitrogen contents, dried algal material was ground to powder and three subsamples of 2 mg from each alga thalli were loaded and packed into tin cartridges (6×6×12 mm). The packages were combusted at 950 °C and the absolute contents of C and N were automatically quantified in an elemental analyzer (Elementar Vario EL III, Germany) using acetanilide as standard according to Verardo et al. (1990).

Analysis and compound of carbon sequestration and serpentinization from the Iberian Margin and the Northern Apennine

Fluid circulation in peridotite-hosted hydrothermal systems influences the incorporation of carbon into the oceanic crust and its long-term storage. At low to moderate temperatures, serpentinization of peridotite produces alkaline fluids that are rich in CH4 and H2. Upon mixing with seawater, these fluids precipitate carbonate, forming an extensive network of calcite veins in the basement rocks, while H2 and CH4 serve as an energy source for microorganisms. Here, we analyzed the carbon geochemistry of two ancient peridotite-hosted hydrothermal systems: 1) ophiolites cropping out in the Northern Apennines, and 2) calcite-veined serpentinites from the Iberian Margin (Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Legs 149 and 173), and compare them to active peridotite-hosted hydrothermal systems such as the Lost City hydrothermal field (LCHF) on the Atlantis Massif near the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR). Our results show that large amounts of carbonate are formed during serpentinization of mantle rocks exposed on the seafloor (up to 9.6 wt.% C in ophicalcites) and that carbon incorporation decreases with depth. In the Northern Apennine serpentinites, serpentinization temperatures decrease from 240 °C to < 150 °C, while carbonates are formed at temperatures decreasing from ~ 150 °C to < 50 °C. At the Iberian Margin both carbonate formation and serpentinization temperatures are lower than in the Northern Apennines with serpentinization starting at ~ 150 °C, followed by clay alteration at < 100 °C and carbonate formation at < 19-44 °C. Comparison with various active peridotite-hosted hydrothermal systems on the MAR shows that the serpentinites from the Northern Apennines record a thermal evolution similar to that of the basement of the LCHF and that tectonic activity on the Jurassic seafloor, comparable to the present-day processes leading to oceanic core complexes, probably led to formation of fractures and faults, which promoted fluid circulation to greater depth and cooling of the mantle rocks. Thus, our study provides further evidence that the Northern Apennine serpentinites host a paleo-stockwork of a hydrothermal system similar to the basement of the LCHF. Furthermore, we argue that the extent of carbonate uptake is mainly controlled by the presence of fluid pathways. Low serpentinization temperatures promote microbial activity, which leads to enhanced biomass formation and the storage of organic carbon. Organic carbon becomes dominant with increasing depth and is the principal carbon phase at more than 50-100 m depth of the serpentinite basement at the Iberian Margin. We estimate that annually 1.1 to 2.7 × 1012 g C is stored within peridotites exposed to seawater, of which 30-40% is fixed within the uppermost 20-50 m mainly as carbonate. Additionally, we conclude that alteration of oceanic lithosphere is an important factor in the long-term global carbon cycle, having the potential to store carbon for millions of years.