Applicability of Two International Risk Scores in Cardiac Surgery in a Reference Center in Brazil

Background:The applicability of international risk scores in heart surgery (HS) is not well defined in centers outside of North America and Europe.Objective:To evaluate the capacity of the Parsonnet Bernstein 2000 (BP) and EuroSCORE (ES) in predicting in-hospital mortality (IHM) in patients undergoing HS at a reference hospital in Brazil and to identify risk predictors (RP).Methods:Retrospective cohort study of 1,065 patients, with 60.3% patients underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), 32.7%, valve surgery and 7.0%, CABG combined with valve surgery. Additive and logistic scores models, the area under the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve (AUC) and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify the RP.Results:Overall mortality was 7.8%. The baseline characteristics of the patients were significantly different in relation to BP and ES. AUCs of the logistic and additive BP were 0.72 (95% CI, from 0.66 to 0.78 p = 0.74), and of ES they were 0.73 (95% CI; 0.67 to 0.79 p = 0.80). The calculation of the SMR in BP was 1.59 (95% CI; 1.27 to 1.99) and in ES, 1.43 (95% CI; 1.14 to 1.79). Seven RP of IHM were identified: age, serum creatinine > 2.26 mg/dL, active endocarditis, systolic pulmonary arterial pressure > 60 mmHg, one or more previous HS, CABG combined with valve surgery and diabetes mellitus.Conclusion:Local scores, based on the real situation of local populations, must be developed for better assessment of risk in cardiac surgery.

Performance of Surgical Risk Scores to Predict Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

AbstractBackground:Predicting mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) remains a challenge.Objectives:To evaluate the performance of 5 risk scores for cardiac surgery in predicting the 30-day mortality among patients of the Brazilian Registry of TAVI.Methods:The Brazilian Multicenter Registry prospectively enrolled 418 patients undergoing TAVI in 18 centers between 2008 and 2013. The 30-day mortality risk was calculated using the following surgical scores: the logistic EuroSCORE I (ESI), EuroSCORE II (ESII), Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score, Ambler score (AS) and Guaragna score (GS). The performance of the risk scores was evaluated in terms of their calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test) and discrimination [area under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (AUC)].Results:The mean age was 81.5 ± 7.7 years. The CoreValve (Medtronic) was used in 86.1% of the cohort, and the transfemoral approach was used in 96.2%. The observed 30-day mortality was 9.1%. The 30-day mortality predicted by the scores was as follows: ESI, 20.2 ± 13.8%; ESII, 6.5 ± 13.8%; STS score, 14.7 ± 4.4%; AS, 7.0 ± 3.8%; GS, 17.3 ± 10.8%. Using AUC, none of the tested scores could accurately predict the 30-day mortality. AUC for the scores was as follows: 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49 to 0.68, p = 0.09] for ESI; 0.54 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64, p = 0.42) for ESII; 0.57 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.67, p = 0.16) for AS; 0.48 (95% IC: 0.38 to 0.57, p = 0.68) for STS score; and 0.52 (95% CI: 0.42 to 0.62, p = 0.64) for GS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test indicated acceptable calibration for all scores (p > 0.05).Conclusions:In this real world Brazilian registry, the surgical risk scores were inaccurate in predicting mortality after TAVI. Risk models specifically developed for TAVI are required.

Journal of researches into the natural history and geology of the countries visited during the voyage of H.M.S. Beagle round the world, under the command of Capt. Fitz Roy, R.N.

(1873 printing)

Report on the scientific results of the voyage of H.M.S. Challenger during the years 1873-76 under the command of Captain George S. Nares ... and the late Captain Frank Tourle Thomson, R.N.

Zoology v.11=pt.31-33 (1884)

Report on the scientific results of the voyage of H.M.S. Challenger during the years 1873-76 under the command of Captain George S. Nares ... and the late Captain Frank Tourle Thomson, R.N.

Zoology v.18(text):pt.1=pt.40 (1886-1887)

Report on the scientific results of the voyage of H.M.S. Challenger during the years 1873-76 under the command of Captain George S. Nares ... and the late Captain Frank Tourle Thomson, R.N.

Zoology v.29:pt.1=pt.67 (1888) [Text]

Report on the scientific results of the voyage of H.M.S. Challenger during the years 1873-76 under the command of Captain George S. Nares ... and the late Captain Frank Tourle Thomson, R.N.

Botany v.1; pt.1-3 (1884-1885)

Report on the scientific results of the voyage of H.M.S. Challenger during the years 1873-76 under the command of Captain George S. Nares ... and the late Captain Frank Tourle Thomson, R.N.

Zoology v.29:pt.2=pt.67 (1888) [Text]

Report on the scientific results of the voyage of H.M.S. Challenger during the years 1873-76 under the command of Captain George S. Nares ... and the late Captain Frank Tourle Thomson, R.N.

Zoology v.5=pt.14;16 (1881-1882)

Report on the scientific results of the voyage of H.M.S. Challenger during the years 1873-76 under the command of Captain George S. Nares ... and the late Captain Frank Tourle Thomson, R.N.

Zoology v.24=pt.52 (1887-1888) [Plates]

Echocardiographic Predictors of Worse Outcome After Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy

Abstract Background: Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) is the recommended treatment by leading global guidelines. However, 30%-40% of selected patients are non-responders. Objective: To develop an echocardiographic model to predict cardiac death or transplantation (Tx) 1 year after CRT. Method: Observational, prospective study, with the inclusion of 116 patients, aged 64.89 ± 11.18 years, 69.8% male, 68,1% in NYHA FC III and 31,9% in FC IV, 71.55% with left bundle-branch block, and median ejection fraction (EF) of 29%. Evaluations were made in the pre‑implantation period and 6-12 months after that, and correlated with cardiac mortality/Tx at the end of follow-up. Cox and logistic regression analyses were performed with ROC and Kaplan-Meier curves. The model was internally validated by bootstrapping. Results: There were 29 (25%) deaths/Tx during follow-up of 34.09 ± 17.9 months. Cardiac mortality/Tx was 16.3%. In the multivariate Cox model, EF < 30%, grade III/IV diastolic dysfunction and grade III mitral regurgitation at 6‑12 months were independently related to increased cardiac mortality or Tx, with hazard ratios of 3.1, 4.63 and 7.11, respectively. The area under the ROC curve was 0.78. Conclusion: EF lower than 30%, severe diastolic dysfunction and severe mitral regurgitation indicate poor prognosis 1 year after CRT. The combination of two of those variables indicate the need for other treatment options.

Report on the scientific results of the voyage of H.M.S. Challenger during the years 1873-76 under the command of Captain George S. Nares ... and the late Captain Frank Tourle Thomson, R.N.

Zoology v.4=pt.11-13 (1881-1882)

Report on the scientific results of the voyage of H.M.S. Challenger during the years 1873-76 under the command of Captain George S. Nares ... and the late Captain Frank Tourle Thomson, R.N.

Zoology v.15=pt.41-43 (1886)

Report on the scientific results of the voyage of H.M.S. Challenger during the years 1873-76 under the command of Captain George S. Nares ... and the late Captain Frank Tourle Thomson, R.N.

Zoology v.9(plates)=pt.22 (1883-1884)

Report on the scientific results of the voyage of H.M.S. Challenger during the years 1873-76 under the command of Captain George S. Nares ... and the late Captain Frank Tourle Thomson, R.N.

Zoology v.27=pt.69;74-76 (1888)