On uncertainty and robustness in evolutionary optimization-based multicriterio decision-making

Programa de Doctorado: Sistemas Inteligentes y Aplicaciones Numéricas en Ingeniería

The uncertainty in standardised sound power measurements: complying with ISO 17025

In the context of “testing laboratory” one of the most important aspect to deal with is the measurement result. Whenever decisions are based on measurement results, it is important to have some indication of the quality of the results. In every area concerning with noise measurement many standards are available but without an expression of uncertainty, it is impossible to judge whether two results are in compliance or not. ISO/IEC 17025 is an international standard related with the competence of calibration and testing laboratories. It contains the requirements that testing and calibration laboratories have to meet if they wish to demonstrate that they operate to a quality system, are technically competent and are able to generate technically valid results. ISO/IEC 17025 deals specifically with the requirements for the competence of laboratories performing testing and calibration and for the reporting of the results, which may or may not contain opinions and interpretations of the results. The standard requires appropriate methods of analysis to be used for estimating uncertainty of measurement. In this point of view, for a testing laboratory performing sound power measurement according to specific ISO standards and European Directives, the measurement of uncertainties is the most important factor to deal with. Sound power level measurement, according to ISO 3744:1994 , performed with a limited number of microphones distributed over a surface enveloping a source is affected by a certain systematic error and a related standard deviation. Making a comparison of measurement carried out with different microphone arrays is difficult because results are affected by systematic errors and standard deviation that are peculiarities of the number of microphones disposed on the surface, their spatial position and the complexity of the sound field. A statistical approach could give an overview of the difference between sound power level evaluated with different microphone arrays and an evaluation of errors that afflict this kind of measurement. Despite the classical approach that tend to follow the ISO GUM this thesis present a different point of view of the problem related to the comparison of result obtained from different microphone arrays.

Analysis and developments of uncertainty processors for real time flood forecasting

The hydrologic risk (and the hydro-geologic one, closely related to it) is, and has always been, a very relevant issue, due to the severe consequences that may be provoked by a flooding or by waters in general in terms of human and economic losses. Floods are natural phenomena, often catastrophic, and cannot be avoided, but their damages can be reduced if they are predicted sufficiently in advance. For this reason, the flood forecasting plays an essential role in the hydro-geological and hydrological risk prevention. Thanks to the development of sophisticated meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic models, in recent decades the flood forecasting has made a significant progress, nonetheless, models are imperfect, which means that we are still left with a residual uncertainty on what will actually happen. In this thesis, this type of uncertainty is what will be discussed and analyzed. In operational problems, it is possible to affirm that the ultimate aim of forecasting systems is not to reproduce the river behavior, but this is only a means through which reducing the uncertainty associated to what will happen as a consequence of a precipitation event. In other words, the main objective is to assess whether or not preventive interventions should be adopted and which operational strategy may represent the best option. The main problem for a decision maker is to interpret model results and translate them into an effective intervention strategy. To make this possible, it is necessary to clearly define what is meant by uncertainty, since in the literature confusion is often made on this issue. Therefore, the first objective of this thesis is to clarify this concept, starting with a key question: should be the choice of the intervention strategy to adopt based on the evaluation of the model prediction based on its ability to represent the reality or on the evaluation of what actually will happen on the basis of the information given by the model forecast? Once the previous idea is made unambiguous, the other main concern of this work is to develope a tool that can provide an effective decision support, making possible doing objective and realistic risk evaluations. In particular, such tool should be able to provide an uncertainty assessment as accurate as possible. This means primarily three things: it must be able to correctly combine all the available deterministic forecasts, it must assess the probability distribution of the predicted quantity and it must quantify the flooding probability. Furthermore, given that the time to implement prevention strategies is often limited, the flooding probability will have to be linked to the time of occurrence. For this reason, it is necessary to quantify the flooding probability within a horizon time related to that required to implement the intervention strategy and it is also necessary to assess the probability of the flooding time.

Bayesian space-time data fusion for real-time forecasting and map uncertainty

Environmental computer models are deterministic models devoted to predict several environmental phenomena such as air pollution or meteorological events. Numerical model output is given in terms of averages over grid cells, usually at high spatial and temporal resolution. However, these outputs are often biased with unknown calibration and not equipped with any information about the associated uncertainty. Conversely, data collected at monitoring stations is more accurate since they essentially provide the true levels. Due the leading role played by numerical models, it now important to compare model output with observations. Statistical methods developed to combine numerical model output and station data are usually referred to as data fusion. In this work, we first combine ozone monitoring data with ozone predictions from the Eta-CMAQ air quality model in order to forecast real-time current 8-hour average ozone level defined as the average of the previous four hours, current hour, and predictions for the next three hours. We propose a Bayesian downscaler model based on first differences with a flexible coefficient structure and an efficient computational strategy to fit model parameters. Model validation for the eastern United States shows consequential improvement of our fully inferential approach compared with the current real-time forecasting system. Furthermore, we consider the introduction of temperature data from a weather forecast model into the downscaler, showing improved real-time ozone predictions. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. We illustrate our Bayesian model by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.

Networks, Uncertainty, Applications and a Crusade for Optimality

In this thesis we address a collection of Network Design problems which are strongly motivated by applications from Telecommunications, Logistics and Bioinformatics. In most cases we justify the need of taking into account uncertainty in some of the problem parameters, and different Robust optimization models are used to hedge against it. Mixed integer linear programming formulations along with sophisticated algorithmic frameworks are designed, implemented and rigorously assessed for the majority of the studied problems. The obtained results yield the following observations: (i) relevant real problems can be effectively represented as (discrete) optimization problems within the framework of network design; (ii) uncertainty can be appropriately incorporated into the decision process if a suitable robust optimization model is considered; (iii) optimal, or nearly optimal, solutions can be obtained for large instances if a tailored algorithm, that exploits the structure of the problem, is designed; (iv) a systematic and rigorous experimental analysis allows to understand both, the characteristics of the obtained (robust) solutions and the behavior of the proposed algorithm.

Aggregate Programming in Scala: a Core Library and Actor-Based Platform for Distributed Computational Fields

La programmazione aggregata è un paradigma che supporta la programmazione di sistemi di dispositivi, adattativi ed eventualmente a larga scala, nel loro insieme -- come aggregati. L'approccio prevalente in questo contesto è basato sul field calculus, un calcolo formale che consente di definire programmi aggregati attraverso la composizione funzionale di campi computazionali, creando i presupposti per la specifica di pattern di auto-organizzazione robusti. La programmazione aggregata è attualmente supportata, in modo più o meno parziale e principalmente per la simulazione, da DSL dedicati (cf., Protelis), ma non esistono framework per linguaggi mainstream finalizzati allo sviluppo di applicazioni. Eppure, un simile supporto sarebbe auspicabile per ridurre tempi e sforzi d'adozione e per semplificare l'accesso al paradigma nella costruzione di sistemi reali, nonché per favorire la ricerca stessa nel campo. Il presente lavoro consiste nello sviluppo, a partire da un prototipo della semantica operazionale del field calculus, di un framework per la programmazione aggregata in Scala. La scelta di Scala come linguaggio host nasce da motivi tecnici e pratici. Scala è un linguaggio moderno, interoperabile con Java, che ben integra i paradigmi ad oggetti e funzionale, ha un sistema di tipi espressivo, e fornisce funzionalità avanzate per lo sviluppo di librerie e DSL. Inoltre, la possibilità di appoggiarsi, su Scala, ad un framework ad attori solido come Akka, costituisce un altro fattore trainante, data la necessità di colmare l'abstraction gap inerente allo sviluppo di un middleware distribuito. Nell'elaborato di tesi si presenta un framework che raggiunge il triplice obiettivo: la costruzione di una libreria Scala che realizza la semantica del field calculus in modo corretto e completo, la realizzazione di una piattaforma distribuita Akka-based su cui sviluppare applicazioni, e l'esposizione di un'API generale e flessibile in grado di supportare diversi scenari.

Integrazione di piattaforme d'esecuzione e simulazione in una toolchain Scala per aggregate programming

La tesi è calata nell'ambito dell'Aggregate Programming e costituita da una prima parte introduttiva su questo ambito, per poi concentrarsi sulla descrizione degli elaborati prodotti e infine qualche nota conclusiva unitamente a qualche possibile sviluppo futuro. La parte progettuale consiste nell'integrazione del framework Scafi con il simulatore Alchemist e con una piattaforma di creazione e di esecuzione di sistemi in ambito Spatial Computin, con lo scopo di potenziare la toolchain esistente per Aggregate Programming. Inoltre si riporta anche un breve capitolo per l'esecuzione del framework scafi sviluppato in scala sulla piattaforma Android.

Clinical results with two different methods of root-end preparation and filling in apical surgery: mineral trioxide aggregate and adhesive resin composite

INTRODUCTION: The aim of apical surgery is to hermetically seal the root canal system after root-end resection, thereby enabling periradicular healing. The objective of this nonrandomized prospective clinical study was to report results of 2 different root-end preparation and filling methods, ie, mineral trioxide aggregate (MTA) and an adhesive resin composite (Retroplast). METHODS: The study included 353 consecutive cases with endodontic lesions limited to the periapical area. Root-end cavities were prepared with sonic microtips and filled with MTA (n = 178), or alternatively, a shallow concavity was prepared in the cut root face, with subsequent placement of an adhesive resin composite (Retroplast) (n = 175). Patients were recalled after 1 year. Cases were defined as healed when no clinical signs or symptoms were present and radiographs demonstrated complete or incomplete (scar tissue) healing of previous radiolucencies. RESULTS: The overall rate of healed cases was 85.5%. MTA-treated teeth demonstrated a significantly (P = .003) higher rate of healed cases (91.3%) compared with Retroplast-treated teeth (79.5%). Within the MTA group, 89.5%-100% of cases were classified as healed, depending on the type of treated tooth. In contrast, more variable rates ranging from 66.7%-100% were found in the Retroplast group. In particular, mandibular premolars and molars demonstrated considerably lower rates of healed cases when treated with Retroplast. CONCLUSIONS: MTA can be recommended for root-end filling in apical surgery, irrespective of the type of treated tooth. Retroplast should be used with caution for root-end sealing in apical surgery of mandibular premolars and molars.

[Ethics, empiricism and uncertainty]

Accidents can lead to difficult boundary situations. Such situations often take place in the emergency units. The medical team thus often and inevitably faces professional uncertainty in their decision-making. It is essential to communicate these uncertainties within the medical team, instead of downplaying or overriding existential hurdles in decision-making. Acknowledging uncertainties might lead to alert and prudent decisions. Thus uncertainty can have ethical value in treatment or withdrawal of treatment. It does not need to be covered in evidence-based arguments, especially as some singular situations of individual tragedies cannot be grasped in terms of evidence-based medicine.

Assessment of total uncertainty in cocaine and benzoylecgonine wastewater load measurements

To check the effectiveness of campaigns preventing drug abuse or indicating local effects of efforts against drug trafficking, it is beneficial to know consumed amounts of substances in a high spatial and temporal resolution. The analysis of drugs of abuse in wastewater (WW) has the potential to provide this information. In this study, the reliability of WW drug consumption estimates is assessed and a novel method presented to calculate the total uncertainty in observed WW cocaine (COC) and benzoylecgonine (BE) loads. Specifically, uncertainties resulting from discharge measurements, chemical analysis and the applied sampling scheme were addressed and three approaches presented. These consist of (i) a generic model-based procedure to investigate the influence of the sampling scheme on the uncertainty of observed or expected drug loads, (ii) a comparative analysis of two analytical methods (high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry), including an extended cross-validation by influent profiling over several days, and (iii) monitoring COC and BE concentrations in WW of the largest Swiss sewage treatment plants. In addition, the COC and BE loads observed in the sewage treatment plant of the city of Berne were used to back-calculate the COC consumption. The estimated mean daily consumed amount was 107 ± 21 g of pure COC, corresponding to 321 g of street-grade COC.