Large-scale analysis of orthologs and paralogs under covarion-like and constant-but-different models of amino acid evolution.

Functional divergence between homologous proteins is expected to affect amino acid sequences in two main ways, which can be considered as proxies of biochemical divergence: a "covarion-like" pattern of correlated changes in evolutionary rates, and switches in conserved residues ("conserved but different"). Although these patterns have been used in case studies, a large-scale analysis is needed to estimate their frequency and distribution. We use a phylogenomic framework of animal genes to answer three questions: 1) What is the prevalence of such patterns? 2) Can we link such patterns at the amino acid level with selection inferred at the codon level? 3) Are patterns different between paralogs and orthologs? We find that covarion-like patterns are more frequently detected than "constant but different," but that only the latter are correlated with signal for positive selection. Finally, there is no obvious difference in patterns between orthologs and paralogs.

Reaching for the Holy Grail: insights from infection/cure models on the prospects for vaccines for Trypanosoma cruziinfection

Prevention of Trypanosoma cruzi infection in mammals likely depends on either prevention of the invading trypomastigotes from infecting host cells or the rapid recognition and killing of the newly infected cells byT. cruzi-specific T cells. We show here that multiple rounds of infection and cure (by drug therapy) fails to protect mice from reinfection, despite the generation of potent T cell responses. This disappointing result is similar to that obtained with many other vaccine protocols used in attempts to protect animals from T. cruziinfection. We have previously shown that immune recognition ofT. cruziinfection is significantly delayed both at the systemic level and at the level of the infected host cell. The systemic delay appears to be the result of a stealth infection process that fails to trigger substantial innate recognition mechanisms while the delay at the cellular level is related to the immunodominance of highly variable gene family proteins, in particular those of the trans-sialidase family. Here we discuss how these previous studies and the new findings herein impact our thoughts on the potential of prophylactic vaccination to serve a productive role in the prevention of T. cruziinfection and Chagas disease.

The MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II study of common practices for the development and validation of microarray-based predictive models.

Gene expression data from microarrays are being applied to predict preclinical and clinical endpoints, but the reliability of these predictions has not been established. In the MAQC-II project, 36 independent teams analyzed six microarray data sets to generate predictive models for classifying a sample with respect to one of 13 endpoints indicative of lung or liver toxicity in rodents, or of breast cancer, multiple myeloma or neuroblastoma in humans. In total, >30,000 models were built using many combinations of analytical methods. The teams generated predictive models without knowing the biological meaning of some of the endpoints and, to mimic clinical reality, tested the models on data that had not been used for training. We found that model performance depended largely on the endpoint and team proficiency and that different approaches generated models of similar performance. The conclusions and recommendations from MAQC-II should be useful for regulatory agencies, study committees and independent investigators that evaluate methods for global gene expression analysis.

Neuronal in vitro models for the estimation of acute systemic toxicity.

The objective of the EU funded integrated project "ACuteTox" is to develop a strategy in which general cytotoxicity, together with organ-specific endpoints and biokinetic features, are taken into consideration in the in vitro prediction of oral acute systemic toxicity. With regard to the nervous system, the effects of 23 reference chemicals were tested with approximately 50 endpoints, using a neuronal cell line, primary neuronal cell cultures, brain slices and aggregated brain cell cultures. Comparison of the in vitro neurotoxicity data with general cytotoxicity data generated in a non-neuronal cell line and with in vivo data such as acute human lethal blood concentration, revealed that GABA(A) receptor function, acetylcholine esterase activity, cell membrane potential, glucose uptake, total RNA expression and altered gene expression of NF-H, GFAP, MBP, HSP32 and caspase-3 were the best endpoints to use for further testing with 36 additional chemicals. The results of the second analysis showed that no single neuronal endpoint could give a perfect improvement in the in vitro-in vivo correlation, indicating that several specific endpoints need to be analysed and combined with biokinetic data to obtain the best correlation with in vivo acute toxicity.

Two-sided learning in new keynesian models: dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank (two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economy have asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. We assume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct for different sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model of the economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs through a statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study the short-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularly with respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learning can generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behavior of the variables in the model in a signifficant way. Our simulations do not converge to a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source that invalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identify a novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communication can be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified

Probabilistic models to assist maintenance of multiple instruments

The paper discusses maintenance challenges of organisations with a huge number of devices and proposes the use of probabilistic models to assist monitoring and maintenance planning. The proposal assumes connectivity of instruments to report relevant features for monitoring. Also, the existence of enough historical registers with diagnosed breakdowns is required to make probabilistic models reliable and useful for predictive maintenance strategies based on them. Regular Markov models based on estimated failure and repair rates are proposed to calculate the availability of the instruments and Dynamic Bayesian Networks are proposed to model cause-effect relationships to trigger predictive maintenance services based on the influence between observed features and previously documented diagnostics

Towards smart user models in open environments

Our work is concerned with user modelling in open environments. Our proposal then is the line of contributions to the advances on user modelling in open environments thanks so the Agent Technology, in what has been called Smart User Model. Our research contains a holistic study of User Modelling in several research areas related to users. We have developed a conceptualization of User Modelling by means of examples from a broad range of research areas with the aim of improving our understanding of user modelling and its role in the next generation of open and distributed service environments. This report is organized as follow: In chapter 1 we introduce our motivation and objectives. Then in chapters 2, 3, 4 and 5 we provide the state-of-the-art on user modelling. In chapter 2, we give the main definitions of elements described in the report. In chapter 3, we present an historical perspective on user models. In chapter 4 we provide a review of user models from the perspective of different research areas, with special emphasis on the give-and-take relationship between Agent Technology and user modelling. In chapter 5, we describe the main challenges that, from our point of view, need to be tackled by researchers wanting to contribute to advances in user modelling. From the study of the state-of-the-art follows an exploratory work in chapter 6. We define a SUM and a methodology to deal with it. We also present some cases study in order to illustrate the methodology. Finally, we present the thesis proposal to continue the work, together with its corresponding work scheduling and temporalisation

Neuroprotection in cerebral ischemia with XG-102, a new peptide inhibitor of JNK

Abstract Stroke or cerebrovascular accident, whose great majority is of ischemic nature, is the third leading cause of mortality and long lasting disability in industrialised countries. Resulting from the loss of blood supply to the brain depriving cerebral tissues of oxygen and glucose, it induces irreversible neuronal damages. Despite the large amount of research carried out into the causes and pathogenic features of cerebral ischemia the progress toward effective treatments has been poor. Apart the clot-busting drug tissue-type plasminogen activator (tPA) as effective therapy for acute stroke (reperfusion by thrombolysis) but limited to a low percentage of patients, there are currently no other approved medical treatments. The need for new therapy strategies is therefore imperative. Neuronal death in cerebral ischemia is among others due to excitotoxic mechanisms very early after stroke onset. One of the main involved molecular pathways leading to excitotoxic cell death is the c-Jun NH2-terminal kinase (JNK) pathway. Several studies have already shown the efficacy of a neuroprotective agent of a new type, a dextrogyre peptide synthesized in the retro inverso form (XG102, formerly D-JNKI1), which is protease-resistant and cell-penetrating and that selectively and strongly blocks the access of JNK to many of its targets. A powerful protection was observed with this compound in several models of ischemia (Borsello et al. 2003;Hirt et al. 2004). This chimeric compound, made up of a 10 amino acid TAT transporter sequence followed by a 20 amino acids JNK binding domain (JBD) sequence from JNK inhibitor protein (JIP) molecule, induced both a major reduction in lesion size and improved functional outcome. Moreover it presents a wide therapeutic window. XG-102 has proved its powerful efficacy in an occlusion model of middle cerebral artery in mice with intracérebroventricular (i.c.v.) injection but in order to be able to consider the development of this drug for human ischemic stroke it was therefore necessary to determine the feasibility of its systemic administration. The studies being the subject of this thesis made it possible to show a successful neuroprotection with XG-102 administered systemically after transient mouse middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAo). Moreover our data. provided information about the feasibility to combine XG-102 with tPA without detrimental action on cell survival. By combining the benefits from a reperfusion treatment with the effects of a neuroprotective compound, it would represent the advantage of bringing better chances to protect the cerebral tissue. Résumé L'attaque cérébrale ou accident vasculaire cérébral, dont la grande majorité est de nature ischémique, constitue la troisième cause de mortalité et d'infirmité dans les pays industrialisés. Résultant de la perte d'approvisionnement de sang au cerveau privant les tissus cérébraux d'oxygène et de glucose, elle induit des dommages neuronaux irréversibles. En dépit du nombre élevé de recherches effectuées pour caractériser les mécanismes pathogènes de l'ischémie. cérébrale, les progrès vers des traitements efficaces restent pauvres. Excepté l'activateur tissulaire du plasminogène (tPA) dont le rôle est de désagréger les caillots sanguins et employé comme thérapie efficace contre l'attaque cérébrale aiguë (reperfusion par thrombolyse) mais limité à un faible pourcentage de patients, il n'y a actuellement aucun autre traitement médical approuvé. Le besoin de nouvelles stratégies thérapeutiques est par conséquent impératif. La mort neuronale dans l'ischémie cérébrale est entre autres due à des mécanismes excitotoxiques survenant rapidement après le début de l'attaque cérébrale. Une des principales voies moléculaires impliquée conduisant à la mort excitotoxique des cellules est la voie de la c-Jun NH2terminal kinase (JNK). Plusieurs études ont déjà montré l'efficacité d'un agent neuroprotecteur d'un nouveau type, un peptide dextrogyre synthétisé sous la forme retro inverso (XG-102, précédemment D-JNKI1) résistant aux protéases, capable de pénétrer dans les cellules et de bloquer sélectivement et fortement l'accès de JNK à plusieurs de ses cibles. Une puissante protection a été observée avec ce composé dans plusieurs modèles d'ischémie (Borsello et al. 2003;Hirt et al. 2004). Ce composé chimérique, construit à partir d'une séquence TAT de 10 acides aminés suivie par une séquence de 20 acides aminés d'un domaine liant JNK (JBD) issu de la molécule JNK protéine inhibitrice. (JIP), induit à la fois une réduction importante de la taille de lésion et un comportement fonctionnel amélioré. De plus il présente une fenêtre thérapeutique étendue. XG-102 a prouvé sa puissante efficacité dans un modèle d'occlusion de l'artère cérébrale moyenne chez la souris avec injection intracerebroventriculaire (i.c.v.) mais afin de pouvoir envisager le développement de ce composé pour l'attaque cérébrale chez l'homme, il était donc nécessaire de déterminer la faisabilité de son administration systémique. Les études faisant l'objet de cette thèse ont permis de montrer une neuroprotection importante avec XG-102 administré de façon systémique après l'occlusion transitoire de l'artère cérébrale moyenne chez la souris (MCAo). De plus nos données ont fourni des informations quant à la faisabilité de combiner XG-102 et tPA, démontrant une protection efficace par XG-102 malgré l'action nuisible du tPA sur la survie des cellules. En combinant les bénéfices de la reperfusion avec les effets d'un composé neurooprotecteur, cela représenterait l'avantage d'apporter des meilleures chances de protéger le tissu cérébral.

Application of the european customer satisfaction index to postal services. Structural equation models versus partial least squars

Customer satisfaction and retention are key issues for organizations in today’s competitive market place. As such, much research and revenue has been invested in developing accurate ways of assessing consumer satisfaction at both the macro (national) and micro (organizational) level, facilitating comparisons in performance both within and between industries. Since the instigation of the national customer satisfaction indices (CSI), partial least squares (PLS) has been used to estimate the CSI models in preference to structural equation models (SEM) because they do not rely on strict assumptions about the data. However, this choice was based upon some misconceptions about the use of SEM’s and does not take into consideration more recent advances in SEM, including estimation methods that are robust to non-normality and missing data. In this paper, both SEM and PLS approaches were compared by evaluating perceptions of the Isle of Man Post Office Products and Customer service using a CSI format. The new robust SEM procedures were found to be advantageous over PLS. Product quality was found to be the only driver of customer satisfaction, while image and satisfaction were the only predictors of loyalty, thus arguing for the specificity of postal services

From deep seated slope deformation to rock avalanche: Destabilization and transportation models of the Sierre landslide (Switzerland)

Sackung is a widespread post-glacial morphological feature affecting Alpine mountains and creating characteristic geomorphological expression that can be detected from topography. Over long time evolution, internal deformation can lead to the formation of rapidly moving phenomena such as a rock-slide or rock avalanche. In this study, a detailed description of the Sierre rock-avalanche (SW Switzerland) is presented. This convex-shaped postglacial instability is one of the larger rock-avalanche in the Alps, involving more than 1.5 billion m3 with a run-out distance of about 14 km and extremely low Fahrböschung angle. This study presents comprehensive analyses of the structural and geological characteristics leading to the development of the Sierre rock-avalanche. In particular, by combining field observations, digital elevation model analyses and numerical modelling, the strong influence of both ductile and brittle tectonic structures on the failure mechanism and on the failure surface geometry is highlighted. The detection of pre-failure deformation indicates that the development of the rock avalanche corresponds to the last evolutionary stage of a pre-existing deep seated gravitational slope instability. These analyses accompanied by the dating and the characterization of rock avalanche deposits, allow the proposal of a destabilization model that clarifies the different phases leading to the development of the Sierre rock avalanche.

Bayesian nash equilibrium in ''linear'' cournot models with private information about costs

Calculating explicit closed form solutions of Cournot models where firms have private information about their costs is, in general, very cumbersome. Most authors consider therefore linear demands and constant marginal costs. However, within this framework, the nonnegativity constraint on prices (and quantities) has been ignored or not properly dealt with and the correct calculation of all Bayesian Nash equilibria is more complicated than expected. Moreover, multiple symmetric and interior Bayesianf equilibria may exist for an open set of parameters. The reason for this is that linear demand is not really linear, since there is a kink at zero price: the general ''linear'' inverse demand function is P (Q) = max{a - bQ, 0} rather than P (Q) = a - bQ.

Redox dysregulation and oxidative stress in schizophrenia: genetic and functional anomalies of glutathione synthesis in patients and experimental models involving GABA interneurons and NMDA receptors

Objective: Converging evidence speak in favor of an abnormal susceptibility to oxidative stress in schizophrenia. A decreased level of glutathione (GSH), the principal non-protein antioxidant and redox regulator, was observed both in cerebrospinal-fluid and prefrontal cortex of schizophrenia patients (Do et al., 2000). Results: Schizophrenia patients have an abnormal GSH synthesis most likely of genetic origin: Two independent case-control studies showed a significant association between schizophrenia and a GAG trinucleotide repeat (TNR) polymorphism in the GSH key synthesizing enzyme glutamate-cysteine-ligase (GCL) catalytic subunit (GCLC) gene. The most common TNR genotype 7/7 was more frequent in controls, whereas the rarest TNR genotype 8/8 was three times more frequent in patients. The disease-associated genotypes correlated with a decrease in GCLC protein expression, GCL activity and GSH content. Such a redox dysregulation during development could underlie the structural and functional anomalies in connectivity: In experimental models, GSH deficit induced anomalies similar to those observed in patients. (a) morphology: In animal models with GSH deficit during the development we observed in prefrontal cortex a decreased dendritic spines density in pyramidal cells and an abnormal development of parvalbumine (but not of calretinine) immunoreactive GABA interneurones in anterior cingulate cortex. (b) physiology: GSH depletion in hippocampal slices induces NMDA receptors hypofunction and an impairment of long term potentiation. In addition, GSH deficit affected the modulation of dopamine on NMDA-induced Ca 2+ response in cultured cortical neurons. While dopamine enhanced NMDA responses in control neurons, it depressed NMDA responses in GSH-depleted neurons. Antagonist of D2-, but not D1-receptors, prevented this depression, a mechanism contributing to the efficacy of antipsychotics. The redox sensitive ryanodine receptors and L-type calcium channels underlie these observations. (c) cognition: Developing rats with low [GSH] and high dopamine lead deficit in olfactory integration and in object recognition which appears earlier in males that females, in analogy to the delay of the psychosis onset between man and woman. Conclusion: These clinical and experimental evidence, combined with the favorable outcome of a clinical trial with N-Acetyl Cysteine, a GSH precursor, on both the negative symptoms (Berk et al., submitted) and the mismatch negativity in an auditory oddball paradigm supported the proposal that a GSH synthesis impairment of genetic origin represent, among other factors, one major risk factor in schizophrenia.

Avalanche dynamics of fiber bundle models

We present a detailed analytical and numerical study of the avalanche distributions of the continuous damage fiber bundle model CDFBM . Linearly elastic fibers undergo a series of partial failure events which give rise to a gradual degradation of their stiffness. We show that the model reproduces a wide range of mechanical behaviors. We find that macroscopic hardening and plastic responses are characterized by avalanche distributions, which exhibit an algebraic decay with exponents between 5/2 and 2 different from those observed in mean-field fiber bundle models. We also derive analytically the phase diagram of a family of CDFBM which covers a large variety of potential avalanche size distributions. Our results provide a unified view of the statistics of breaking avalanches in fiber bundle models

Epidemic models with an infected-infectious period

The introduction of an infective-infectious period on the geographic spread of epidemics is considered in two different models. The classical evolution equations arising in the literature are generalized and the existence of epidemic wave fronts is revised. The asymptotic speed is obtained and improves previous results for the Black Death plague