953 resultados para What-if Analysis
Resumo:
Initial topography and inherited structural discontinuities are known to play a dominant role in rock slope stability. Previous 2-D physical modeling results demonstrated that even if few preexisting fractures are activated/propagated during gravitational failure all of those heterogeneities had a great influence on mobilized volume and its kinematics. The question we address in the present study is to determine if such a result is also observed in 3-D. As in 2-D previous models we examine geologically stable model configuration, based upon the well documented landslide at Randa, Switzerland. The 3-D models consisted of a homogeneous material in which several fracture zones were introduced in order to study simplified but realistic configurations of discontinuities (e.g. based on natural example rather than a parametric study). Results showed that the type of gravitational failure (deep-seated landslide or sequential failure) and resulting slope morphology evolution are the result of the interplay of initial topography and inherited preexisting fractures (orientation and density). The three main results are i) the initial topography exerts a strong control on gravitational slope failure. Indeed in each tested configuration (even in the isotropic one without fractures) the model is affected by a rock slide, ii) the number of simulated fracture sets greatly influences the volume mobilized and its kinematics, and iii) the failure zone involved in the 1991 event is smaller than the results produced by the analog modeling. This failure may indicate that the zone mobilized in 1991 is potentially only a part of a larger deep-seated landslide and/or wider deep seated gravitational slope deformation.
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Many Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) establish tuition below the equilibrium price to generate permanent demand excess. This paper first adapts Becker’s (1991) theory to understand why the HEIs price in this way. The fact that students are both consumers and inputs on the education production process gives rise to a market equilibrium where some firms have excess demand and charge high prices, and others charge low prices and have empty seats.Second, the paper analyzes this equilibrium empirically. We estimated the demand for undergraduate courses in Business Administration in the State of São Paulo. The results show that tuition, quality of incoming students and percentage of lecturers holding doctorates degrees are the determining factors of students’ choice. Since the student quality determines the demand for a HEI, it is calculated what the value is for a HEI to get better students; that is the total revenue that each HEI gives up to guarantee excess demand. Regarding the “investment” in selectivity, 39 HEIs in São Paulo give up a combined R$ 5 million (or US$ 3.14 million) in revenue per year per freshman class, which means 7.6% of the revenue coming from a freshman class.
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Questions: Did the forest area in the Swiss Alps increase between 1985 and 1997? Does the forest expansion near the tree line represent an invasion into abandoned grasslands (ingrowth) or a true upward shift of the local tree line? What land cover / land use classes did primarily regenerate to forest, and what forest structural types did primarily regenerate? And, what are possible drivers of forest regeneration in the tree line ecotone, climate and/or land use change? Location: Swiss Alps. Methods: Forest expansion was quantified using data from the repeated Swiss land use statistics GEOSTAT. A moving window algorithm was developed to distinguish between forest ingrowth and upward shift. To test a possible climate change influence, the resulting upward shifts were compared to a potential regional tree line. Results: A significant increase of forest cover was found between 1650 to and 2450 m. Above 1650 m, 10% of the new forest areas were identified as true upward shifts whereas 90% represented ingrowth, and we identified both land use and climate change as likely drivers. Most upward shift activities were found to occur within a band of 300 m below the potential regional tree line, indicating land use as the most likely driver. Only 4% of the upward shifts were identified to rise above the potential regional tree line, thus indicating climate change. Conclusions: Land abandonment was the most dominant driver for the establishment of new forest areas, even at the tree line ecotone. However, a small fraction of upwards shift can be attributed to the recent climate warming, a fraction that is likely to increase further if climate continues to warm, and with a longer time-span between warming and measurement of forest cover.
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Patients with status epilepticus that proves refractory to anesthetic agents represent a daunting challenge for treating clinicians. Animal data support the neuroprotective action of brain hypothermia, and its efficacy in status epilepticus models. This approach, targeting a core temperature of about 33°C for at least 24 hours together with pharmacological sedation, has been described in adults and children. However, although relatively safe if concomitant barbiturates are avoided, it seems that mild hypothermia rarely allows a sustained control of ongoing status epilepticus, since seizures tend to recur in normothermia. Conversely, mild hypothermia has a high-evidence level and is increasingly used in postanoxic encephalopathy, both in newborns and adults. Due to the paucity of available clinical data, prospective studies are needed to assess the value of hypothermia in status epilepticus.
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Purpose: Although young males encounter sexually-related concerns, they are mostly absent from specialized services. Our objective is to assess whether the internet is used by boys to find answers to these types of problems and questions. Methods: In the context of a qualitative study assessing young males' barriers to access sexual and reproductive health facilities, we conducted two focus groups gathering 12 boys aged 17-20. Discussions were triggered through the presentation of four vignettes corresponding to questions posted by 17-20 year old boys and girls on an information website for adolescents (www.ciao.ch), concerning various sexual dysfunction situations. In order to avoid having to talk about their own experience, participants were asked what they would do in those cases. Results: In general, the internet was mentioned quite thoroughly as a means of searching for information through research engines and a place to address professionals for advice.Within the hierarchy of consultation possibilities, the internet was given the first place as a way to deal with these types of problems presenting many advantages: (1) the internet enables to maintain intimacy; (2) it is anonymous (use of a pseudo); (3) it avoids having to confront someone face-to-face with personal problems which can be embarrassing and challenging for one's pride; (4) it is free; and (5) it is accessible at all times. In other words, participants value the internet as a positive tool to avoid many barriers which prevent offline consultations to take place. Most participants consider the internet at least as a first step in trying to solve a problem; for instance, by better defining the seriousness of a problem and judging if it is worth consulting a doctor. However, despite the positive qualities of the internet, they do put forward the importance of having specialists answering questions, trustworthiness, and being followed-up by the same person. Participants suggested that a strategy to break down barriers for boys to consult in face-to-face settings is to have a consultation on the internet as a first step which could then guide the person to an in-person consultation if necessary. Conclusions: The internet as a means of obtaining information or consulting received high marks overall. Although the internet cannot replace an in-person consultation, the screen and the keyboard have the advantage of not involving a face-to-face encounter and raise the possibility of discussing sexual problems anonymously and in private. The internet tools together with other new technologies should continue to develop in a secure manner as a space providing prevention messages and to become an easy access door to sexual and reproductive health services for young men, which can then guide youths to appropriate resource persons. Sources of support: This study was supported by the Maurice Chalumeau Foundation, Switzerland.
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While one of the main objectives of adolescence is to achieve autonomy, for the specific population of adolescents with a chronic illness (CI), the struggle for autonomy is accentuated by the limits implied by their illness. However, little is known concerning the way their parents manage and cope with their children's autonomy acquisition. Our aim was to identify the needs and preoccupations of parents of adolescents with CI in coping with their children's autonomy acquisition and to determine whether mothers and fathers coped differently. Using a qualitative approach, 30 parents of adolescents with CI participated in five focus groups. Recruitment took place in five specialized pediatric clinics from our university hospital. Thematic analysis was conducted. Transcript analyses suggested four major categories of preoccupations, those regarding autonomy acquisition, giving or taking on autonomy, shared management of treatment and child's future. Some aspects implied differences between mothers' and fathers' viewpoints and ways of experiencing this period of life. Letting go can be hard for the father, mother, adolescent or all three. Helping one or the other can in turn improve family functioning as a whole. Reported findings may help health professionals better assist parents in managing their child's acquisition of autonomy.
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El propòsit d'aquesta investigació és conèixer, descriure i interpretar el sistema educatiu palestí per saber si una situació de conflicte afecta -i en quina mesura- el funcionament, estructura, resultats i comprensió del concepte educatiu en una regió. Per assolir-ho, s'ha cercat informació bibliogràfica en diferents fonts, a més de la observació in situ de la realitat educativa palestina, fent entrevistes a diferents agents de la regió. Cal esmentar que el treball teòric és general però la descripció pràctica és contextualitzada a Nablus, una ciutat de Cisjordània. Els resultats obtinguts en aquesta investigació educativa de la branca de l'Educació Comparada han estat diversos, concretar-se en diferents conclusions: les conseqüències d'una guerra silenciosa que fa més de 60 anys que es perllonga en el temps implica dificultats econòmiques i administratives que afecten directament al sistema educatiu de la regió; objectius del govern palestí encarats a desenvolupar la població amb una aplicació pràctica real que els acompleix; importància de l'imaginari social de la nació per comprendre la importància del concepte d'Educació i les accions i atacs que rep aquest concepte per part de l'Estat d'Israel i on la comunitat internacional no es posiciona; la necessitat de crear un Estat Independent Palestí
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Background: Recent reviews of randomized control trials have shown that pharmacist interventions improve cardiovascular diseases (CVD) risk factors in outpatients. Various interventions were evaluated in different settings, and a substantial heterogeneity was observed in the effect estimates. To better express uncertainties in the effect estimates, prediction intervals (PI) have been proposed but are, however, rarely reported. Objective: Pooling data from two systematic reviews, we estimated the effect of pharmacist interventions on systolic blood pressure (BP), computed PI, and evaluated potential causes of heterogeneity. Methods: Data were pooled from systematic reviews assessing the effect of pharmacist interventions on CVD risk factors in patients with or without diabetes, respectively. Effects were estimated using random effect models. Results: Systolic BP was the outcome in 31 trials including 12 373 patients. Pharmacist interventions included patient educational interventions, patient-reminder systems, measurement of BP, medication management and feedback to physician, or educational intervention to health care professionals. Pharmacist interventions were associated with a large reduction in systolic BP (-7.5 mmHg; 95% CI: -9.0 to -5.9). There was a substantial heterogeneity (I2: 66%). The 95% PI ranged from -13.9 to -1.0 mmHg. The effect tended to be larger if the intervention was conducted in a community pharmacy and if the pharmacist intervened at least monthly. Conclusion: On average, the effect of pharmacist interventions on BP was substantial. However, the wide PI suggests that the effect differed between interventions, with some having modest effects and others very large effects on BP. Part of the heterogeneity could be due to differences in the setting and in the frequency of the interventions.
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Introduction: Patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) are more susceptible to pathogens like P. aeruginosa (PA). PA primo-‐infections require particular attention, as with failure in eradication, there is accelerated lung deterioration. The main aim of this study is to assess the rate of PA eradication according to our particular protocol with inhaled tobramycin and oral ciprofloxacin, as there is no consensus in the literature on what eradication protocol the best is. Methods: Retrospective single centre study with data analysis from June 1st 2007 to June 1st 2011 of patients who had primo-‐infections exclusively treated by 3 x 28 days of inhaled tobramycin and oral ciprofloxacin for the first and last 21 days. Success in eradication is defined by ≥ 3 negative bacteriologies for 6 months after the beginning of the protocol. If ≥ 1 bacteriology is positive, we consider the eradication as a failure. Results: Out of 41 patients, 18 were included in our analysis. 7 girls (38.9%) and 11 boys (61.1%) followed the eradication protocol. Boys had 12 primo-‐infections and girls had 8. Among these 20 primo-‐infections, 16 (80%) had an all-‐overall success in eradication and 4 (20%) a failure. No significant statistical difference for age between these groups (t-‐test = 0.07, p = 0.94), neither for FEV1% (t-‐test = 0.96, p = 0.41) nor BMI (t-‐test = 1.35, p = 0.27). Rate of success was 100% for girls and 66.6% for boys. Conclusion: Our protocol succeeded in an overall eradication rate of 80%, without statistical significant impact on FEV1 % and BMI values. However, there is a sex difference with eradication rates in girls (100%) and boys (66.6%). A sex difference has not yet been reported in the literature. This should be evaluated in further studies.
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OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between fear of falling and gait performance in well-functioning older persons. DESIGN: Survey. SETTING: Community. PARTICIPANTS: Subjects (N=860, aged 65-70y) were a subsample of participants enrolled in a cohort study who underwent gait measurements. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Fear of falling and its severity were assessed by 2 questions about fear and related activity restriction. Gait performance, including gait variability, was measured using body-fixed sensors. RESULTS: Overall, 29.6% (210/860) of the participants reported fear of falling, with 5.2% (45/860) reporting activity restriction. Fear of falling was associated with reduced gait performance, including increased gait variability. A gradient in gait performance was observed from participants without fear to those reporting fear without activity restriction and those reporting both fear and activity restriction. For instance, stride velocity decreased from 1.15+/-.15 to 1.11+/-.17 to 1.00+/-.19 m/s (P<.001) in participants without fear, with fear but no activity restriction and with fear and activity restriction, respectively. In multivariate analysis, fear of falling with activity restriction remained associated with reduced gait performance, independent of sex, comorbidity, functional status, falls history, and depressive symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: In these well-functioning older people, those reporting fear of falling with activity restriction had reduced gait performance and increased gait variability, independent of health and functional status. These relationships suggest that early interventions targeting fear of falling might potentially help to prevent its adverse consequences on mobility and function in similar populations.
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QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY/PRINCIPLES: Little is known concerning patients' expectations regarding sexual history taking by doctors: to ascertain expectations and actual experience of talking about sexuality among male patients attending outpatient clinics, and their sexual behaviour. METHODS: Patients consecutively recruited from two outpatient clinics in Lausanne, Switzerland were provided with an anonymous self-administered questionnaire. Survey topics were: patients' expectations concerning sexual history taking, patients' lifetime experience of sexual history taking, and patients' sexual behaviour. RESULTS: The response rate was 53.0% (N = 1452). Among respondents, 90.9% would like their physician to ask them questions regarding their sexual history in order to receive advice on prevention (60.0% yes, 30.9% rather yes). Fifteen percent would be embarrassed or rather embarrassed if asked such questions. Nevertheless, 76.2% of these individuals would like their physician to do so. Despite these wishes, only 40.5% reported ever having a discussion "on their sexual life in general" with a doctor. Only one patient out of four to five was asked about previous sexually transmitted infections (STIs), the number of sexual partners and their sexual orientation. No feature of their sexual life distinguishes those who had discussed sexual issues with a doctor from those who had not, except a history of previous consultation for health problems related to sexuality. Conversely, being embarrassed about conducting this discussion was significantly associated with lack of discussion regarding sexuality. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the gap existing in the field of STI prevention in terms of doctors' advice and patients' wishes.
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BACKGROUND: Control of blood pressure (BP) remains a major challenge in primary care. Innovative interventions to improve BP control are therefore needed. By updating and combining data from 2 previous systematic reviews, we assess the effect of pharmacist interventions on BP and identify potential determinants of heterogeneity. METHODS AND RESULTS: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assessing the effect of pharmacist interventions on BP among outpatients with or without diabetes were identified from MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and CENTRAL databases. Weighted mean differences in BP were estimated using random effect models. Prediction intervals (PI) were computed to better express uncertainties in the effect estimates. Thirty-nine RCTs were included with 14 224 patients. Pharmacist interventions mainly included patient education, feedback to physician, and medication management. Compared with usual care, pharmacist interventions showed greater reduction in systolic BP (-7.6 mm Hg, 95% CI: -9.0 to -6.3; I(2)=67%) and diastolic BP (-3.9 mm Hg, 95% CI: -5.1 to -2.8; I(2)=83%). The 95% PI ranged from -13.9 to -1.4 mm Hg for systolic BP and from -9.9 to +2.0 mm Hg for diastolic BP. The effect tended to be larger if the intervention was led by the pharmacist and was done at least monthly. CONCLUSIONS: Pharmacist interventions - alone or in collaboration with other healthcare professionals - improved BP management. Nevertheless, pharmacist interventions had differential effects on BP, from very large to modest or no effect; and determinants of heterogeneity could not be identified. Determining the most efficient, cost-effective, and least time-consuming intervention should be addressed with further research.
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The Iowa Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning (CJJP) received funding through the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ (BJS) State Justice Statistics (SJS) Program for the purpose of collection and analysis of data related to implementation of the Iowa Sex Offender Registry. The research had two specific goals: · To enhance understanding of the State’s Sex Offender Registry through collection and analysis of data on sex offenders before and after the Registry’s implementation. · To develop and validate a unique Iowa Sex Offender Risk Assessment tool to assist in identifying those offenders who constitute the highest risk to re-offend. Few studies have addressed the impact of a Sex Offender Registry program on recidivism rates or other variables. It was the purpose of this first study to examine and compare two groups of individuals to determine what effect, if any, the requirement to register as a sex offender had on recidivism rates over a 3-4 year period.
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Background: Prognostic and predictive markers are of great importance for future study designs and essential for the interpretation of clinical trials incorporating an EGFR-inhibitor. The current study prospectively assessed and validated KRAS, BRAF and PIK3CA mutations in rectal cancer patients screened for the trial SAKK41/07 of concomitant preoperative radio-chemotherapy with or without panitumumab.Methods: Macrodissection was performed on pretreatment formalin fixed paraffin embedded biopsy tissue sections to arrive at a minimum of 50% of tumor cells. DNA was extracted with the Maxwell 16 FFPE Tissue LEV DNA purification kit. After PCR amplification, mutations were identified by pyrosequencing. We prospectively analysed pretreatment biopsy material from 149 rectal cancer pts biopsies for KRAS (exon 2 codon 12 [2-12] and 13 [2-13], exon 3 codon 59 [3-59]) and 61 [3-61], exon 4 codon 117 [4-117] and 146 [4-146]). Sixty-eight pts (KRASwt exon 2, 3 only) were further analysed for BRAF (exon 15 codon 600) and PIK3CA (exon 9 codon 542, 545 and 546, exon 20 codon 1043 [20-1043] and 1047 [20-1047]) mutations, and EGFR copy number by qPCR. For the calculation of the EGFR copy number, we used KRAS copy number as internal reference standard. The calculation was done on the basis of the two standard curves relative quantification method.Results: In 149 screened pts with rectal cancer, the prevalence of KRAS mutations was 36%. Among the 68 pts enrolled in SAKK 41/07 based on initially presumed KRASwt status (exon 2/codons 12+13), 18 pts (26%) had a total of 23 mutations in the RAS/PIK3CA-pathways upon validation analysis. Twelve pts had a KRAS mutation, 7 pts had a PIK3CA mutation, 3 pts had a NRAS mutation, 1 patient a BRAF mutation. Surprisingly, five of these pts had double- mutations, including 4 pts with KRAS plus PIK3CA mutations, and 1 pt with NRAS plus PIK3CA mutations. The median normalized EGFR copy number was 1. Neither mutations of KRAS, BRAF, and PIK3CA, nor EGFR copy number were statistically associated with the primary study endpoint pCR (pathological complete regression).Conclusions: The prevalence of KRAS mutations in rectal and in colon cancer appears to be similar. BRAF mutations are rare; PIK3CA mutations are more common (10%). EGFR copy number is not increased in rectal cancer. A considerable number or KRAS exon 2 wt tumors harbored KRAS exon 3+4 mutations. Further study is needed to determine if KRAS testing should include exons 2-4.
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Left unilateral spatial neglect resulting from right brain damage is characterized by loss of awareness for stimuli in the contralesional side of space, despite intact visual pathways. We examined using fMRI whether patients with neglect are more likely to consciously detect in the neglected hemifield, emotionally negative complex scenes rather than visually similar neutral pictures and if so, what neural mechanisms mediate this effect. Photographs of emotional and neutral scenes taken from the IAPS were presented in a divided visual field paradigm. As expected, the detection rate for emotional stimuli presented in the neglected field was higher than for neutral ones. Successful detection of emotional scenes as opposed to neutral stimuli in the left visual field (LVF) produced activations in the parahippocampal and anterior cingulate areas in the right hemisphere. Detection of emotional stimuli presented in the intact right visual field (RVF) activated a distributed network of structures in the left hemisphere, including anterior and posterior cingulate cortex, insula, as well as visual striate and extrastriate areas. LVF-RVF contrasts for emotional stimuli revealed activations in right and left attention related prefrontal areas whereas RVF-LVF comparison showed activations in the posterior cingulate and extrastriate visual cortex in the left hemisphere. An additional analysis contrasting detected vs. undetected emotional LVF stimuli showed involvement of left anterior cingulate, right frontal and extrastriate areas. We hypothesize that beneficial role of emotion in overcoming neglect is achieved by activation of frontal and limbic lobe networks, which provide a privileged access of emotional stimuli to attention by top-down modulation of processing in the higher-order extrastriate visual areas. Our results point to the importance of top-down regulatory role of the frontal attentional systems, which might enhance visual activations and lead to greater salience of emotional stimuli for perceptual awareness.