Quasi-biennial oscillation and tracer distributions in a coupled chemistry-climate model

[ 1] We have used a fully coupled chemistry-climate model (CCM), which generates its own wind and temperature quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), to study the effect of coupling on the QBO and to examine the QBO signals in stratospheric trace gases, particularly ozone. Radiative coupling of the interactive chemistry to the underlying general circulation model tends to prolong the QBO period and to increase the QBO amplitude in the equatorial zonal wind in the lower and middle stratosphere. The model ozone QBO agrees well with Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer satellite observations in terms of vertical and latitudinal structure. The model captures the ozone QBO phase change near 28 km over the equator and the column phase change near +/- 15 degrees latitude. Diagnosis of the model chemical terms shows that variations in NOx are the main chemical driver of the O-3 QBO around 35 km, i.e., above the O-3 phase change.

Modeling distributions of immediate memory effects: No strategies needed?

Many models of immediate memory predict the presence or absence of various effects, but none have been tested to see whether they predict an appropriate distribution of effect sizes. The authors show that the feature model (J. S. Nairne, 1990) produces appropriate distributions of effect sizes for both the phonological confusion effect and the word-length effect. The model produces the appropriate number of reversals, when participants are more accurate with similar items or long items, and also correctly predicts that participants performing less well overall demonstrate smaller and less reliable phonological similarity and word-length effects and are more likely to show reversals. These patterns appear within the model without the need to assume a change in encoding or rehearsal strategy or the deployment of a different storage buffer. The implications of these results and the wider applicability of the distributionmodeling approach are discussed.

Asymptotic normality in mixtures of power series distributions

The problem of estimating the individual probabilities of a discrete distribution is considered. The true distribution of the independent observations is a mixture of a family of power series distributions. First, we ensure identifiability of the mixing distribution assuming mild conditions. Next, the mixing distribution is estimated by non-parametric maximum likelihood and an estimator for individual probabilities is obtained from the corresponding marginal mixture density. We establish asymptotic normality for the estimator of individual probabilities by showing that, under certain conditions, the difference between this estimator and the empirical proportions is asymptotically negligible. Our framework includes Poisson, negative binomial and logarithmic series as well as binomial mixture models. Simulations highlight the benefit in achieving normality when using the proposed marginal mixture density approach instead of the empirical one, especially for small sample sizes and/or when interest is in the tail areas. A real data example is given to illustrate the use of the methodology.

Equivalence of truncated count mixture distributions and mixtures of truncated count distributions

This article is about modeling count data with zero truncation. A parametric count density family is considered. The truncated mixture of densities from this family is different from the mixture of truncated densities from the same family. Whereas the former model is more natural to formulate and to interpret, the latter model is theoretically easier to treat. It is shown that for any mixing distribution leading to a truncated mixture, a (usually different) mixing distribution can be found so. that the associated mixture of truncated densities equals the truncated mixture, and vice versa. This implies that the likelihood surfaces for both situations agree, and in this sense both models are equivalent. Zero-truncated count data models are used frequently in the capture-recapture setting to estimate population size, and it can be shown that the two Horvitz-Thompson estimators, associated with the two models, agree. In particular, it is possible to achieve strong results for mixtures of truncated Poisson densities, including reliable, global construction of the unique NPMLE (nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator) of the mixing distribution, implying a unique estimator for the population size. The benefit of these results lies in the fact that it is valid to work with the mixture of truncated count densities, which is less appealing for the practitioner but theoretically easier. Mixtures of truncated count densities form a convex linear model, for which a developed theory exists, including global maximum likelihood theory as well as algorithmic approaches. Once the problem has been solved in this class, it might readily be transformed back to the original problem by means of an explicitly given mapping. Applications of these ideas are given, particularly in the case of the truncated Poisson family.

Sensitivity distributions and cross-resistance patterns of Mycosphaerella graminicola to fluquinconazole, prochloraz and azoxystrobin over a period of nine years

The sensitivity of 73 isolates of Mycosphaerella graminicola collected over the period 1993–2002 from wheat fields in South England was tested in vitro against the triazole fluquinconazole, the strobilurin azoxystrobin and to the imidazole prochloraz. Over the sampling period, sensitivity of the population to fluquinconazole and prochloraz decreased by factors of approximately 10 and 2, respectively, but there was no evidence of changes in sensitivity to azoxystrobin. There was no correlation between sensitivity to fluquinconazole and prochloraz, but there was a weak negative cross-resistance between fluquinconazole and azoxystrobin.

Influence of environmental stress on distributions of times to first division in Escherichia coli populations, as determined by digital-image analysis of individual cells

The distributions of times to first cell division were determined for populations of Escherichia coli stationary-phase cells inoculated onto agar media. This was accomplished by using automated analysis of digital images of individual cells growing on agar and calculation of the "box area ratio." Using approximately 300 cells per experiment, the mean time to first division and standard deviation for cells grown in liquid medium at 37 degrees C and inoculated on agar and incubated at 20 degrees C were determined as 3.0 h and 0.7 h, respectively. Distributions were observed to tail toward the higher values, but no definitive model distribution was identified. Both preinoculation stress by heating cultures at 50 degrees C and postinoculation stress by growth in the presence of higher concentrations of NaCl increased mean times to first division. Both stresses also resulted in an increase in the spread of the distributions that was proportional to the mean division time, the coefficient of variation being constant at approximately 0.2 in all cases. The "relative division time," which is the time to first division for individual cells expressed in terms of the cell size doubling time, was used as measure of the "work to be done" to prepare for cell division. Relative division times were greater for heat-stressed cells than for those growing under osmotic stress.

Computational complexity of weighted splitting schemes on parallel computers

In models of complicated physical-chemical processes operator splitting is very often applied in order to achieve sufficient accuracy as well as efficiency of the numerical solution. The recently rediscovered weighted splitting schemes have the great advantage of being parallelizable on operator level, which allows us to reduce the computational time if parallel computers are used. In this paper, the computational times needed for the weighted splitting methods are studied in comparison with the sequential (S) splitting and the Marchuk-Strang (MSt) splitting and are illustrated by numerical experiments performed by use of simplified versions of the Danish Eulerian model (DEM).

Precipitation and latent heating distributions from satellite passive microwave radiometry. Part I: improved method and uncertainties

A revised Bayesian algorithm for estimating surface rain rate, convective rain proportion, and latent heating profiles from satellite-borne passive microwave radiometer observations over ocean backgrounds is described. The algorithm searches a large database of cloud-radiative model simulations to find cloud profiles that are radiatively consistent with a given set of microwave radiance measurements. The properties of these radiatively consistent profiles are then composited to obtain best estimates of the observed properties. The revised algorithm is supported by an expanded and more physically consistent database of cloud-radiative model simulations. The algorithm also features a better quantification of the convective and nonconvective contributions to total rainfall, a new geographic database, and an improved representation of background radiances in rain-free regions. Bias and random error estimates are derived from applications of the algorithm to synthetic radiance data, based upon a subset of cloud-resolving model simulations, and from the Bayesian formulation itself. Synthetic rain-rate and latent heating estimates exhibit a trend of high (low) bias for low (high) retrieved values. The Bayesian estimates of random error are propagated to represent errors at coarser time and space resolutions, based upon applications of the algorithm to TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. Errors in TMI instantaneous rain-rate estimates at 0.5°-resolution range from approximately 50% at 1 mm h−1 to 20% at 14 mm h−1. Errors in collocated spaceborne radar rain-rate estimates are roughly 50%–80% of the TMI errors at this resolution. The estimated algorithm random error in TMI rain rates at monthly, 2.5° resolution is relatively small (less than 6% at 5 mm day−1) in comparison with the random error resulting from infrequent satellite temporal sampling (8%–35% at the same rain rate). Percentage errors resulting from sampling decrease with increasing rain rate, and sampling errors in latent heating rates follow the same trend. Averaging over 3 months reduces sampling errors in rain rates to 6%–15% at 5 mm day−1, with proportionate reductions in latent heating sampling errors.

Auto-weighted minimum-variance self-tuning controller

A self-tuning controller which automatically assigns weightings to control and set-point following is introduced. This discrete-time single-input single-output controller is based on a generalized minimum-variance control strategy. The automatic on-line selection of weightings is very convenient, especially when the system parameters are unknown or slowly varying with respect to time, which is generally considered to be the type of systems for which self-tuning control is useful. This feature also enables the controller to overcome difficulties with non-minimum phase systems.

Weighted input predictive controller

A discrete-time algorithm is presented which is based on a predictive control scheme in the form of dynamic matrix control. A set of control inputs are calculated and made available at each time instant, the actual input applied being a weighted summation of the inputs within the set. The algorithm is directly applicable in a self-tuning format and is therefore suitable for slowly time-varying systems in a noisy environment.

Variational approach in weighted Sobolev spaces to scattering by unbounded rough surfaces

We consider the problem of scattering of time harmonic acoustic waves by an unbounded sound soft surface which is assumed to lie within a finite distance of some plane. The paper is concerned with the study of an equivalent variational formulation of this problem set in a scale of weighted Sobolev spaces. We prove well-posedness of this variational formulation in an energy space with weights which extends previous results in the unweighted setting [S. Chandler-Wilde and P. Monk, SIAM J. Math. Anal., 37 (2005), pp. 598–618] to more general inhomogeneous terms in the Helmholtz equation. In particular, in the two-dimensional case, our approach covers the problem of plane wave incidence, whereas in the three-dimensional case, incident spherical and cylindrical waves can be treated. As a further application of our results, we analyze a finite section type approximation, whereby the variational problem posed on an infinite layer is approximated by a variational problem on a bounded region.

Universality of rain event size distributions

We compare rain event size distributions derived from measurements in climatically different regions, which we find to be well approximated by power laws of similar exponents over broad ranges. Differences can be seen in the large-scale cutoffs of the distributions. Event duration distributions suggest that the scale-free aspects are related to the absence of characteristic scales in the meteorological mesoscale.