Variability of daily winter wind speed distribution over Northern Europe during the past millennium in regional and global climate simulations

We analyse the variability of the probability distribution of daily wind speed in wintertime over Northern and Central Europe in a series of global and regional climate simulations covering the last centuries, and in reanalysis products covering approximately the last 60 years. The focus of the study lies on identifying the link of the variations in the wind speed distribution to the regional near-surface temperature, to the meridional temperature gradient and to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our main result is that the link between the daily wind distribution and the regional climate drivers is strongly model dependent. The global models tend to behave similarly, although they show some discrepancies. The two regional models also tend to behave similarly to each other, but surprisingly the results derived from each regional model strongly deviates from the results derived from its driving global model. In addition, considering multi-centennial timescales, we find in two global simulations a long-term tendency for the probability distribution of daily wind speed to widen through the last centuries. The cause for this widening is likely the effect of the deforestation prescribed in these simulations. We conclude that no clear systematic relationship between the mean temperature, the temperature gradient and/or the North Atlantic Oscillation, with the daily wind speed statistics can be inferred from these simulations. The understand- ing of past and future changes in the distribution of wind speeds, and thus of wind speed extremes, will require a detailed analysis of the representation of the interaction between large-scale and small-scale dynamics.

Low but contrasting neutral genetic differentiation shaped by winter temperature in European great tits

Gene flow is usually thought to reduce genetic divergence and impede local adaptation by homogenising gene pools between populations. However, evidence for local adaptation and phenotypic differentiation in highly mobile species, experiencing high levels of gene flow, is emerging. Assessing population genetic structure at different spatial scales is thus a crucial step towards understanding mechanisms underlying intraspecific differentiation and diversification. Here, we studied the population genetic structure of a highly mobile species – the great tit Parus major – at different spatial scales. We analysed 884 individuals from 30 sites across Europe including 10 close-by sites (< 50 km), using 22 microsatellite markers. Overall we found a low but significant genetic differentiation among sites (FST = 0.008). Genetic differentiation was higher, and genetic diversity lower, in south-western Europe. These regional differences were statistically best explained by winter temperature. Overall, our results suggest that great tits form a single patchy metapopulation across Europe, in which genetic differentiation is independent of geographical distance and gene flow may be regulated by environmental factors via movements related to winter severity. This might have important implications for the evolutionary trajectories of sub-populations, especially in the context of climate change, and calls for future investigations of local differences in costs and benefits of philopatry at large scales.

Meteorologische Beobachtungen in Palästina : Regenfall an der Küste Palästinas im vergangenen Winter 1903/04

Max Blanckenhorn

Wetterbericht : Regenfall in Palästina im Winter 1905/06

Max Blanckenhorn

Wetterbericht : Regenfall in Palästina im Winter 1905/06

Max Blanckenhorn

Vor dem Winter

Ludwig Holländer

Ex Libris A. S. Winter [Illustration]

J. Stark

Der Winter [Illustration] : Dekorationsgemälde (1898 - 1899)

Max Liebermann

Winter im Gebirge [Illustration] : nach einer Radierung

James Bieberkraut

Winter in der Tatra [Illustration] : Ölgemälde

Abraham Neumann

Fluss im Winter [Illustration] : Ölgemälde

Abraham Neumann

Winter in der Tatra [Illustration] : nach einem farbigen Holzschnitt

Jakob Glasner

"Der Winter" [Illustration]

James Bieberkraut