944 resultados para Variable pricing model


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Using the Bayesian approach as the model selection criteria, the main purpose in this study is to establish a practical road accident model that can provide a better interpretation and prediction performance. For this purpose we are using a structural explanatory model with autoregressive error term. The model estimation is carried out through Bayesian inference and the best model is selected based on the goodness of fit measures. To cross validate the model estimation further prediction analysis were done. As the road safety measures the number of fatal accidents in Spain, during 2000-2011 were employed. The results of the variable selection process show that the factors explaining fatal road accidents are mainly exposure, economic factors, and surveillance and legislative measures. The model selection shows that the impact of economic factors on fatal accidents during the period under study has been higher compared to surveillance and legislative measures.

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Division of labor is a widely studied aspect of colony behavior of social insects. Division of labor models indicate how individuals distribute themselves in order to perform different tasks simultaneously. However, models that study division of labor from a dynamical system point of view cannot be found in the literature. In this paper, we define a division of labor model as a discrete-time dynamical system, in order to study the equilibrium points and their properties related to convergence and stability. By making use of this analytical model, an adaptive algorithm based on division of labor can be designed to satisfy dynamic criteria. In this way, we have designed and tested an algorithm that varies the response thresholds in order to modify the dynamic behavior of the system. This behavior modification allows the system to adapt to specific environmental and collective situations, making the algorithm a good candidate for distributed control applications. The variable threshold algorithm is based on specialization mechanisms. It is able to achieve an asymptotically stable behavior of the system in different environments and independently of the number of individuals. The algorithm has been successfully tested under several initial conditions and number of individuals.

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The paper identifies the potential spatial and social impacts of a proposed road-pricing scheme for different social groups in the Madrid Metropolitan Area (MMA). We appraise the accessibility of different districts within the MMA in terms of the actual and perceived cost of using the road infrastructure ‘before’ and ‘after’ implementation of the scheme. The appraisal framework was developed using quantitative survey data and qualitative focus group discussions with residents. We then simulated user behaviours (mode and route choice) based on the empirical evidence from a travel demand model for the MMA. The results from our simulation model demonstrated that implementation of the toll on the orbital metropolitan motorways (M40, M30, for example) decreases accessibility mostly in the districts where there are no viable public transport alternatives. Our specific study finding is that the economic burden of the road-pricing scheme particularly affects unskilled and lower income individuals living in the south of the MMA. The focus groups confirmed that low income drivers in the south part of the MMA would reduce their use of tolled roads and have to find new arrangements for these trips: i.e. switch to public transport, spend double the time travelling or stay at home. More generally, our research finds that European transport planners are still a long way from recognising the social equity implications of their policy decisions and that more thorough social appraisals are needed to avoid the social exclusion of low income populations when road tolling is proposed.

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A non-local gradient-based damage formulation within a geometrically non-linear setting is presented. The hyperelastic constitutive response at local material point level is governed by a strain energy which is additively composed of an isotropic matrix and of an anisotropic fibre-reinforced material, respectively. The inelastic constitutive response is governed by a scalar [1–d]-type damage formulation, where only the anisotropic elastic part is assumed to be affected by the damage. Following the concept in Dimitrijević and Hackl [28], the local free energy function is enhanced by a gradient-term. This term essentially contains the gradient of the non-local damage variable which, itself, is introduced as an additional independent variable. In order to guarantee the equivalence between the local and non-local damage variable, a penalisation term is incorporated within the free energy function. Based on the principle of minimum total potential energy, a coupled system of Euler–Lagrange equations, i.e., the balance of linear momentum and the balance of the non-local damage field, is obtained and solved in weak form. The resulting coupled, highly non-linear system of equations is symmetric and can conveniently be solved by a standard incremental-iterative Newton–Raphson-type solution scheme. Several three-dimensional displacement- and force-driven boundary value problems—partially motivated by biomechanical application—highlight the mesh-objective characteristics and constitutive properties of the model and illustratively underline the capabilities of the formulation proposed

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This paper focuses on the design of railway timetables considering a variable elastic demand profile along a whole design day. Timetabling is the third stage in the classical hierarchical railway planning process. Most of previous works on this topic consider a uniform demand behavior for short planning intervals. In this paper, we propose a MINLP model for designing non-periodic timetables on a railway corridor where demand is dependent on waiting times. In the elastic demand case, long waiting times lead to a loss of passengers, who may select an alternative transportation mode. The mode choice is modeled using two alternative methods. The first one is based on a sigmoid function and can be used in case of absence of information for competitor modes. In the second one, the mode choice probability is obtained using a Logit model that explicitly considers the existence of a main alternative mode. With the purpose of obtaining optimal departure times, in both cases, a minimization of the loss of passengers is used as objective function. Finally, as illustration, the timetabling MINLP model with both mode choice methods is applied to a real case and computational results are shown.

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The paper explores the spatial and social impacts arising from implementation of a road-pricing scheme in the Madrid Metropolitan Area (MMA). Our analytical focus is on understanding the effects of the scheme on the transport accessibility of different social groups within the MMA. We define an evaluation framework to appraise the accessibility of different districts within the MMA in terms of the actual and perceived cost of using the road infrastructure "before" and "after" the implementation of the scheme. The framework was developed using quantitative survey data and qualitative data from focus group discussions with residents. We then simulated user behaviors (mode and route choice) based on the empirical evidence from a travel demand model for the MMA. The results from our simulation model demonstrated that implementation of the toll on the orbital metropolitan motorways (M40, M30, for example) decreases accessibility, mostly in the districts where there are no viable public transport alternatives. Our key finding is that the economic burden of the road-pricing scheme particularly affects unskilled and lower income individuals living in the south of the MMA. Consequently lower income people reduce their use of tolled roads and have to find new arrangements for these trips: i.e. switch to the public transport, spend double the time for their commuter trips or stay at home. The results of our research could be applicable more widely for anyone wishing to better understand the important relationship between increased transport cost and social equity, especially where there is an intention to introduce similar road-pricing schemes within the urban context.

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In some countries, such as Spain, it is very common that in the same corridor there are two roads with the same origin and destination but with some differences. The most important contrast is that one is a toll highway which offers a better quality than the parallel road in exchange of a price. The users decide if the price of the toll is worth paying for the advantages offered. This problem is known as the untolled alternative and it has been largely studied in the academic literature, particularly related to economic efficiency and the optimal welfare toll. However, there is a gap in the academic literature regarding how income distribution affects the optimal toll. The main objective of the paper is to fill this gap. In this paper a theoretical model is developed in order to obtain the optimal welfare price in a toll highway that competes with a conventional road for capturing the traffic. This model is done for non-usual users who decide over the expectation of free flow conditions. This model is finally applied to the variables we want to focus on: average value of travel time (VTT) which is strongly related with income, dispersion of this VTT and traffic levels, from free flow to congestion. Derived from the results, we conclude that the higher the average VTT the higher the optimal price, the higher the dispersion of this VTT the lower the optimal price and finally, the more the traffic the higher the optimal toll

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El sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido tiene un gran potencial en la prestación de suministro de energía a comunidades remotas. En comparación con los sistemas tradicionales de diesel, las plantas de energía híbridas ofrecen grandes ventajas tales como el suministro de capacidad de energía extra para "microgrids", reducción de los contaminantes y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, y la cobertura del riesgo de aumento inesperado del precio del combustible. El principal objetivo de la presente tesis es proporcionar nuevos conocimientos para la evaluación y optimización de los sistemas de energía híbrido eólico-diesel considerando las incertidumbres. Dado que la energía eólica es una variable estocástica, ésta no puede ser controlada ni predecirse con exactitud. La naturaleza incierta del viento como fuente de energía produce serios problemas tanto para la operación como para la evaluación del valor del sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido. Por un lado, la regulación de la potencia inyectada desde las turbinas de viento es una difícil tarea cuando opera el sistema híbrido. Por otro lado, el bene.cio económico de un sistema eólico-diesel híbrido se logra directamente a través de la energía entregada a la red de alimentación de la energía eólica. Consecuentemente, la incertidumbre de los recursos eólicos incrementa la dificultad de estimar los beneficios globales en la etapa de planificación. La principal preocupación del modelo tradicional determinista es no tener en cuenta la incertidumbre futura a la hora de tomar la decisión de operación. Con lo cual, no se prevé las acciones operativas flexibles en respuesta a los escenarios futuros. El análisis del rendimiento y simulación por ordenador en el Proyecto Eólico San Cristóbal demuestra que la incertidumbre sobre la energía eólica, las estrategias de control, almacenamiento de energía, y la curva de potencia de aerogeneradores tienen un impacto significativo sobre el rendimiento del sistema. En la presente tesis, se analiza la relación entre la teoría de valoración de opciones y el proceso de toma de decisiones. La opción real se desarrolla con un modelo y se presenta a través de ejemplos prácticos para evaluar el valor de los sistemas de energía eólica-diesel híbridos. Los resultados muestran que las opciones operacionales pueden aportar un valor adicional para el sistema de energía híbrida, cuando esta flexibilidad operativa se utiliza correctamente. Este marco se puede aplicar en la optimización de la operación a corto plazo teniendo en cuenta la naturaleza dependiente de la trayectoria de la política óptima de despacho, dadas las plausibles futuras realizaciones de la producción de energía eólica. En comparación con los métodos de valoración y optimización existentes, el resultado del caso de estudio numérico muestra que la política de operación resultante del modelo de optimización propuesto presenta una notable actuación en la reducción del con- sumo total de combustible del sistema eólico-diesel. Con el .n de tomar decisiones óptimas, los operadores de plantas de energía y los gestores de éstas no deben centrarse sólo en el resultado directo de cada acción operativa, tampoco deberían tomar decisiones deterministas. La forma correcta es gestionar dinámicamente el sistema de energía teniendo en cuenta el valor futuro condicionado en cada opción frente a la incertidumbre. ABSTRACT Hybrid wind-diesel power systems have a great potential in providing energy supply to remote communities. Compared with the traditional diesel systems, hybrid power plants are providing many advantages such as providing extra energy capacity to the micro-grid, reducing pollution and greenhouse-gas emissions, and hedging the risk of unexpected fuel price increases. This dissertation aims at providing novel insights for assessing and optimizing hybrid wind-diesel power systems considering the related uncertainties. Since wind power can neither be controlled nor accurately predicted, the energy harvested from a wind turbine may be considered a stochastic variable. This uncertain nature of wind energy source results in serious problems for both the operation and value assessment of the hybrid wind-diesel power system. On the one hand, regulating the uncertain power injected from wind turbines is a difficult task when operating the hybrid system. On the other hand, the economic profit of a hybrid wind-diesel system is achieved directly through the energy delivered to the power grid from the wind energy. Therefore, the uncertainty of wind resources has increased the difficulty in estimating the total benefits in the planning stage. The main concern of the traditional deterministic model is that it does not consider the future uncertainty when making the dispatch decision. Thus, it does not provide flexible operational actions in response to the uncertain future scenarios. Performance analysis and computer simulation on the San Cristobal Wind Project demonstrate that the wind power uncertainty, control strategies, energy storage, and the wind turbine power curve have a significant impact on the performance of the system. In this dissertation, the relationship between option pricing theory and decision making process is discussed. A real option model is developed and presented through practical examples for assessing the value of hybrid wind-diesel power systems. Results show that operational options can provide additional value to the hybrid power system when this operational flexibility is correctly utilized. This framework can be applied in optimizing short term dispatch decisions considering the path-dependent nature of the optimal dispatch policy, given the plausible future realizations of the wind power production. Comparing with the existing valuation and optimization methods, result from numerical example shows that the dispatch policy resulting from the proposed optimization model exhibits a remarkable performance in minimizing the total fuel consumption of the wind-diesel system. In order to make optimal decisions, power plant operators and managers should not just focus on the direct outcome of each operational action; neither should they make deterministic decisions. The correct way is to dynamically manage the power system by taking into consideration the conditional future value in each option in response to the uncertainty.

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Conclusions have differed in studies that have compared vaccine efficacy in groups receiving influenza vaccine for the first time to efficacy in groups vaccinated more than once. For example, the Hoskins study [Hoskins, T. W., Davis, J. R., Smith, A. J., Miller, C. L. & Allchin, A. (1979) Lancet i, 33–35] concluded that repeat vaccination was not protective in the long term, whereas the Keitel study [Keitel, W. A., Cate, T. R., Couch, R. B., Huggins, L. L. & Hess, K. R. (1997) Vaccine 15, 1114–1122] concluded that repeat vaccination provided continual protection. We propose an explanation, the antigenic distance hypothesis, and test it by analyzing seven influenza outbreaks that occurred during the Hoskins and Keitel studies. The hypothesis is that variation in repeat vaccine efficacy is due to differences in antigenic distances among vaccine strains and between the vaccine strains and the epidemic strain in each outbreak. To test the hypothesis, antigenic distances were calculated from historical hemagglutination inhibition assay tables, and a computer model of the immune response was used to predict the vaccine efficacy of individuals given different vaccinations. The model accurately predicted the observed vaccine efficacies in repeat vaccinees relative to the efficacy in first-time vaccinees (correlation 0.87). Thus, the antigenic distance hypothesis offers a parsimonious explanation of the differences between and within the Hoskins and Keitel studies. These results have implications for the selection of influenza vaccine strains, and also for vaccination strategies for other antigenically variable pathogens that might require repeated vaccination.

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A minimal hypothesis is proposed concerning the brain processes underlying effortful tasks. It distinguishes two main computational spaces: a unique global workspace composed of distributed and heavily interconnected neurons with long-range axons, and a set of specialized and modular perceptual, motor, memory, evaluative, and attentional processors. Workspace neurons are mobilized in effortful tasks for which the specialized processors do not suffice. They selectively mobilize or suppress, through descending connections, the contribution of specific processor neurons. In the course of task performance, workspace neurons become spontaneously coactivated, forming discrete though variable spatio-temporal patterns subject to modulation by vigilance signals and to selection by reward signals. A computer simulation of the Stroop task shows workspace activation to increase during acquisition of a novel task, effortful execution, and after errors. We outline predictions for spatio-temporal activation patterns during brain imaging, particularly about the contribution of dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and anterior cingulate to the workspace.

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Hereditary hemochromatosis (HH) is a common disorder of iron metabolism caused by mutation in HFE, a gene encoding an MHC class I-like protein. Clinical studies demonstrate that the severity of iron loading is highly variable among individuals with identical HFE genotypes. To determine whether genetic factors other than Hfe genotype influence the severity of iron loading in the murine model of HH, we bred the disrupted murine Hfe allele onto three different genetically defined mouse strains (AKR, C57BL/6, and C3H), which differ in basal iron status and sensitivity to dietary iron loading. Serum transferrin saturations (percent saturation of serum transferrin with iron), hepatic and splenic iron concentrations, and hepatocellular iron distribution patterns were compared for wild-type (Hfe +/+), heterozygote (Hfe +/−), and knockout (Hfe −/−) mice from each strain. Although the Hfe −/− mice from all three strains demonstrated increased transferrin saturations and liver iron concentrations compared with Hfe +/+ mice, strain differences in severity of iron accumulation were striking. Targeted disruption of the Hfe gene led to hepatic iron levels in Hfe −/− AKR mice that were 2.5 or 3.6 times higher than those of Hfe −/− C3H or Hfe −/− C57BL/6 mice, respectively. The Hfe −/− mice also demonstrated strain-dependent differences in transferrin saturation, with the highest values in AKR mice and the lowest values in C3H mice. These observations demonstrate that heritable factors markedly influence iron homeostasis in response to Hfe disruption. Analysis of mice from crosses between C57BL/6 and AKR mice should allow the mapping and subsequent identification of genes modifying the severity of iron loading in this murine model of HH.

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Self-incompatibility RNases (S-RNases) are an allelic series of style glycoproteins associated with rejection of self-pollen in solanaceous plants. The nucleotide sequences of S-RNase alleles from several genera have been determined, but the structure of the gene products has only been described for those from Nicotiana alata. We report on the N-glycan structures and the disulfide bonding of the S3-RNase from wild tomato (Lycopersicon peruvianum) and use this and other information to construct a model of this molecule. The S3-RNase has a single N-glycosylation site (Asn-28) to which one of three N-glycans is attached. S3-RNase has seven Cys residues; six are involved in disulfide linkages (Cys-16-Cys-21, Cys-46-Cys-91, and Cys-166-Cys-177), and one has a free thiol group (Cys-150). The disulfide-bonding pattern is consistent with that observed in RNase Rh, a related RNase for which radiographic-crystallographic information is available. A molecular model of the S3-RNase shows that four of the most variable regions of the S-RNases are clustered on one surface of the molecule. This is discussed in the context of recent experiments that set out to determine the regions of the S-RNase important for recognition during the self-incompatibility response.

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The pivotal role of G proteins in sensory, hormonal, inflammatory, and proliferative responses has provoked intense interest in understanding how they interact with their receptors and effectors. Nonetheless, the locations of the receptors and effector binding sites remain poorly characterized, although nearly complete structures of the alphabetagamma heterotrimeric complex are available. Here we apply evolutionary trace (ET) analysis [Lichtarge, O., Bourne, H. R. & Cohen, F. E. (1996) J. Mol. Biol. 257, 342-358] to propose plausible locations for these sites. On each subunit, ET identifies evolutionarily selected surfaces composed of residues that do not vary within functional subgroups and that form spatial clusters. Four clusters correctly identify subunit interfaces, and additional clusters on Galpha point to likely receptor or effector binding sites. Our results implicate the conformationally variable region of Galpha in an effector binding role. Furthermore the range of predicted interactions between the receptor and Galphabetagamma, is sufficiently limited that we can build a low resolution and testable model of the receptor-G protein complex.

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The variable immunoglobulin (Ig) domains contain hypervariable regions that are involved in the formation of the antigen binding site. Besides the canonical antigen binding site, so-called unconventional sites also reside in the variable region that bind bacterial and viral proteins. Docking to these unconventional sites does not typically interfere with antigen binding, which suggests that these sites may be a part of the biological functions of Igs. Herein, a novel unconventional binding site is described. The site is detected with 8-azidopurine nucleotide photoaffinity probes that label antibodies efficiently and under mild conditions. Tryptic peptides were isolated from photolabeled monoclonal antibodies and aligned with the variable antibody domains of heavy and light chains. The structure of a variable Ig fragment was used to model the binding of the purine nucleotide to invariant residues in a hydrophobic pocket of the Ig molecule at a location distant from the antigen binding site. Monoclonal and polyclonal antibodies were biotinylated with the photoaffinity linker and used in fluorescence-activated cell sorter and ELISA analyses. The data support the utility of this site for tethering diagnostic and therapeutic agents to the variable Ig fragment region without impairing the structural and functional integrity of antibodies.

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An immunoglobulin light chain protein was isolated from the urine of an individual (BRE) with systemic amyloidosis. Complete amino acid sequence of the variable region of the light chain (VL) protein established it as a kappa I, which when compared with other kappa I amyloid associated proteins had unique residues, including Ile-34, Leu-40, and Tyr-71. To study the tertiary structure, BRE VL was expressed in Escherichia coli by using a PCR product amplified from the patient BRE's bone marrow DNA. The PCR product was ligated into pCZ11, a thermal-inducible replication vector. Recombinant BRE VL was isolated, purified to homogeneity, and crystallized by using ammonium sulfate as the precipitant. Two crystal forms were obtained. In crystal form I the BRE VL kappa domain crystallizes as a dimer with unit cell constants isomorphous to previously published kappa protein structures. Comparison with a nonamyloid VL kappa domain from patient REI, identified significant differences in position of residues in the hypervariable segments plus variations in framework region (FR) segments 40-46 (FR2) and 66-67 (FR3). In addition, positional differences can be seen along the two types of local diads, corresponding to the monomer-monomer and dimer-dimer interfaces. From the packing diagram, a model for the amyloid light chain (AL) fibril is proposed based on a pseudohexagonal spiral structure with a rise of approximately the width of two dimers per 360 degree turn. This spiral structure could be consistent with the dimensions of amyloid fibrils as determined by electron microscopy.