A Near-Real-Time Automatic Orbit Determination System for COSMIC and Its Follow-On Satellite Mission: Analysis of Orbit and Clock Errors on Radio Occultation

The COSMIC-2 mission is a follow-on mission of the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) with an upgraded payload for improved radio occultation (RO) applications. The objective of this paper is to develop a near-real-time (NRT) orbit determination system, called NRT National Chiao Tung University (NCTU) system, to support COSMIC-2 in atmospheric applications and verify the orbit product of COSMIC. The system is capable of automatic determinations of the NRT GPS clocks and LEO orbit and clock. To assess the NRT (NCTU) system, we use eight days of COSMIC data (March 24-31, 2011), which contain a total of 331 GPS observation sessions and 12 393 RO observable files. The parallel scheduling for independent GPS and LEO estimations and automatic time matching improves the computational efficiency by 64% compared to the sequential scheduling. Orbit difference analyses suggest a 10-cm accuracy for the COSMIC orbits from the NRT (NCTU) system, and it is consistent as the NRT University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (URCA) system. The mean velocity accuracy from the NRT orbits of COSMIC is 0.168 mm/s, corresponding to an error of about 0.051 μrad in the bending angle. The rms differences in the NRT COSMIC clock and in GPS clocks between the NRT (NCTU) and the postprocessing products are 3.742 and 1.427 ns. The GPS clocks determined from a partial ground GPS network [from NRT (NCTU)] and a full one [from NRT (UCAR)] result in mean rms frequency stabilities of 6.1E-12 and 2.7E-12, respectively, corresponding to range fluctuations of 5.5 and 2.4 cm and bending angle errors of 3.75 and 1.66 μrad .

Observation errors in early historical upper-air observations

Upper-air observations are a fundamental data source for global atmospheric data products, but uncertainties, particularly in the early years, are not well known. Most of the early observations, which have now been digitized, are prone to a large variety of undocumented uncertainties (errors) that need to be quantified, e.g., for their assimilation in reanalysis projects. We apply a novel approach to estimate errors in upper-air temperature, geopotential height, and wind observations from the Comprehensive Historical Upper-Air Network for the time period from 1923 to 1966. We distinguish between random errors, biases, and a term that quantifies the representativity of the observations. The method is based on a comparison of neighboring observations and is hence independent of metadata, making it applicable to a wide scope of observational data sets. The estimated mean random errors for all observations within the study period are 1.5 K for air temperature, 1.3 hPa for pressure, 3.0 ms−1for wind speed, and 21.4° for wind direction. The estimates are compared to results of previous studies and analyzed with respect to their spatial and temporal variability.

Toward a cognitive taxonomy of medical errors.

One critical step in addressing and resolving the problems associated with human errors is the development of a cognitive taxonomy of such errors. In the case of errors, such a taxonomy may be developed (1) to categorize all types of errors along cognitive dimensions, (2) to associate each type of error with a specific underlying cognitive mechanism, (3) to explain why, and even predict when and where, a specific error will occur, and (4) to generate intervention strategies for each type of error. Based on Reason's (1992) definition of human errors and Norman's (1986) cognitive theory of human action, we have developed a preliminary action-based cognitive taxonomy of errors that largely satisfies these four criteria in the domain of medicine. We discuss initial steps for applying this taxonomy to develop an online medical error reporting system that not only categorizes errors but also identifies problems and generates solutions.

Mixing-cell boundary conditions and apparent mass balance errors for advective-dispersive solute transport

In many field or laboratory situations, well-mixed reservoirs like, for instance, injection or detection wells and gas distribution or sampling chambers define boundaries of transport domains. Exchange of solutes or gases across such boundaries can occur through advective or diffusive processes. First we analyzed situations, where the inlet region consists of a well-mixed reservoir, in a systematic way by interpreting them in terms of injection type. Second, we discussed the mass balance errors that seem to appear in case of resident injections. Mixing cells (MC) can be coupled mathematically in different ways to a domain where advective-dispersive transport occurs: by assuming a continuous solute flux at the interface (flux injection, MC-FI), or by assuming a continuous resident concentration (resident injection). In the latter case, the flux leaving the mixing cell can be defined in two ways: either as the value when the interface is approached from the mixing-cell side (MC-RT -), or as the value when it is approached from the column side (MC-RT +). Solutions of these injection types with constant or-in one case-distance-dependent transport parameters were compared to each other as well as to a solution of a two-layer system, where the first layer was characterized by a large dispersion coefficient. These solutions differ mainly at small Peclet numbers. For most real situations, the model for resident injection MC-RI + is considered to be relevant. This type of injection was modeled with a constant or with an exponentially varying dispersion coefficient within the porous medium. A constant dispersion coefficient will be appropriate for gases because of the Eulerian nature of the usually dominating gaseous diffusion coefficient, whereas the asymptotically growing dispersion coefficient will be more appropriate for solutes due to the Lagrangian nature of mechanical dispersion, which evolves only with the fluid flow. Assuming a continuous resident concentration at the interface between a mixing cell and a column, as in case of the MC-RI + model, entails a flux discontinuity. This flux discontinuity arises inherently from the definition of a mixing cell: the mixing process is included in the balance equation, but does not appear in the description of the flux through the mixing cell. There, only convection appears because of the homogeneous concentration within the mixing cell. Thus, the solute flux through a mixing cell in close contact with a transport domain is generally underestimated. This leads to (apparent) mass balance errors, which are often reported for similar situations and erroneously used to judge the validity of such models. Finally, the mixing cell model MC-RI + defines a universal basis regarding the type of solute injection at a boundary. Depending on the mixing cell parameters, it represents, in its limits, flux as well as resident injections. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Cerebellar cortex contributions to the expression and timing of conditioned eyelid responses.

We used micro-infusions during eyelid conditioning in rabbits to investigate the relative contributions of cerebellar cortex and the underlying deep nuclei (DCN) to the expression of cerebellar learning. These tests were conducted using two forms of cerebellum-dependent eyelid conditioning for which the relative roles of cerebellar cortex and DCN are controversial: delay conditioning, which is largely unaffected by forebrain lesions, and trace conditioning, which involves interactions between forebrain and cerebellum. For rabbits trained with delay conditioning, silencing cerebellar cortex by micro-infusions of the local anesthetic lidocaine unmasked stereotyped short-latency responses. This was also the case after extinction as observed previously with reversible blockade of cerebellar cortex output. Conversely, increasing cerebellar cortex activity by micro-infusions of the GABA(A) antagonist picrotoxin reversibly abolished conditioned responses. Effective cannula placements were clustered around the primary fissure and deeper in lobules hemispheric lobule IV (HIV) and hemispheric lobule V (HV) of anterior lobe. In well-trained trace conditioned rabbits, silencing this same area of cerebellar cortex or reversibly blocking cerebellar cortex output also unmasked short-latency responses. Because Purkinje cells are the sole output of cerebellar cortex, these results provide evidence that the expression of well-timed conditioned responses requires a well-timed decrease in the activity of Purkinje cells in anterior lobe. The parallels between results from delay and trace conditioning suggest similar contributions of plasticity in cerebellar cortex and DCN in both instances.

Learning reward timing in cortex through reward dependent expression of synaptic plasticity.

The ability to represent time is an essential component of cognition but its neural basis is unknown. Although extensively studied both behaviorally and electrophysiologically, a general theoretical framework describing the elementary neural mechanisms used by the brain to learn temporal representations is lacking. It is commonly believed that the underlying cellular mechanisms reside in high order cortical regions but recent studies show sustained neural activity in primary sensory cortices that can represent the timing of expected reward. Here, we show that local cortical networks can learn temporal representations through a simple framework predicated on reward dependent expression of synaptic plasticity. We assert that temporal representations are stored in the lateral synaptic connections between neurons and demonstrate that reward-modulated plasticity is sufficient to learn these representations. We implement our model numerically to explain reward-time learning in the primary visual cortex (V1), demonstrate experimental support, and suggest additional experimentally verifiable predictions.

Can prospective usability evaluation predict data errors?

Increasing amounts of clinical research data are collected by manual data entry into electronic source systems and directly from research subjects. For this manual entered source data, common methods of data cleaning such as post-entry identification and resolution of discrepancies and double data entry are not feasible. However data accuracy rates achieved without these mechanisms may be higher than desired for a particular research use. We evaluated a heuristic usability method for utility as a tool to independently and prospectively identify data collection form questions associated with data errors. The method evaluated had a promising sensitivity of 64% and a specificity of 67%. The method was used as described in the literature for usability with no further adaptations or specialization for predicting data errors. We conclude that usability evaluation methodology should be further investigated for use in data quality assurance.

Spike timing dependent plasticity: a consequence of more fundamental learning rules.

Spike timing dependent plasticity (STDP) is a phenomenon in which the precise timing of spikes affects the sign and magnitude of changes in synaptic strength. STDP is often interpreted as the comprehensive learning rule for a synapse - the "first law" of synaptic plasticity. This interpretation is made explicit in theoretical models in which the total plasticity produced by complex spike patterns results from a superposition of the effects of all spike pairs. Although such models are appealing for their simplicity, they can fail dramatically. For example, the measured single-spike learning rule between hippocampal CA3 and CA1 pyramidal neurons does not predict the existence of long-term potentiation one of the best-known forms of synaptic plasticity. Layers of complexity have been added to the basic STDP model to repair predictive failures, but they have been outstripped by experimental data. We propose an alternate first law: neural activity triggers changes in key biochemical intermediates, which act as a more direct trigger of plasticity mechanisms. One particularly successful model uses intracellular calcium as the intermediate and can account for many observed properties of bidirectional plasticity. In this formulation, STDP is not itself the basis for explaining other forms of plasticity, but is instead a consequence of changes in the biochemical intermediate, calcium. Eventually a mechanism-based framework for learning rules should include other messengers, discrete change at individual synapses, spread of plasticity among neighboring synapses, and priming of hidden processes that change a synapse's susceptibility to future change. Mechanism-based models provide a rich framework for the computational representation of synaptic plasticity.

TDOA for Narrow-band Signal with Low Sampling Rate and Imperfect Synchronization

Time-based localization techniques such as multilateration are favoured for positioning to wide-band signals. Applying the same techniques with narrow-band signals such as GSM is not so trivial. The process is challenged by the needs of synchronization accuracy and timestamp resolution both in the nanoseconds range. We propose approaches to deal with both challenges. On the one hand, we introduce a method to eliminate the negative effect of synchronization offset on time measurements. On the other hand, we propose timestamps with nanoseconds accuracy by using timing information from the signal processing chain. For a set of experiments, ranging from sub-urban to indoor environments, we show that our proposed approaches are able to improve the localization accuracy of TDOA approaches by several factors. We are even able to demonstrate errors as small as 10 meters for outdoor settings with narrow-band signals.

Thermal and Barometric Constraints on the Intrusive and Unroofing History of the Black Mountains: Implications for Timing, Initial Dip, and Kinematics of Detachment Faulting in the Death-Valley Region, California

Unroofing of the Black Mountains, Death Valley, California, has resulted in the exposure of 1.7 Ga crystalline basement, late Precambrian amphibolite facies metasedimentary rocks, and a Tertiary magmatic complex. The Ar-40/Ar-39 cooling ages, obtained from samples collected across the entire length of the range (>55 km), combined with geobarometric results from synextensional intrusions, provide time-depth constraints on the Miocene intrusive history and extensional unroofing of the Black Mountains. Data from the southeastern Black Mountains and adjacent Greenwater Range suggest unroofing from shallow depths between 9 and 10 Ma. To the northwest in the crystalline core of the range, biotite plateau ages from approximately 13 to 6.8 Ma from rocks making up the Death Valley turtlebacks indicate a midcrustal residence (with temperatures >300-degrees-C) prior to extensional unroofing. Biotite Ar-40/Ar-39 ages from both Precambrian basement and Tertiary plutons reveal a diachronous cooling pattern of decreasing ages toward the northwest, subparallel to the regional extension direction. Diachronous cooling was accompanied by dike intrusion which also decreases in age toward the northwest. The cooling age pattern and geobarometric constraints in crystalline rocks of the Black Mountains suggest denudation of 10-15 km along a northwest directed detachment system, consistent with regional reconstructions of Tertiary extension and with unroofing of a northwest deepening crustal section. Mica cooling ages that deviate from the northwest younging trend are consistent with northwestward transport of rocks initially at shallower crustal levels onto deeper levels along splays of the detachment. The well-known Amargosa chaos and perhaps the Badwater turtleback are examples of this "splaying" process. Considering the current distance of the structurally deepest samples away from moderately to steeply east tilted Tertiary strata in the southeastern Black Mountains, these data indicate an average initial dip of the detachment system of the order of 20-degrees, similar to that determined for detachment faults in west central Arizona and southeastern California. Beginning with an initially listric geometry, a pattern of footwall unroofing accompanied by dike intrusion progress northwestward. This pattern may be explained by a model where migration of footwall flexures occur below a scoop-shaped banging wall block. One consequence of this model is that gently dipping ductile fabrics developed in the middle crust steepen in the upper crust during unloading. This process resolves the low initial dips obtained here with mapping which suggests transport of the upper plate on moderately to steeply dipping surfaces in the middle and upper crust.

Timing of Tertiary Extension in the Railroad Valley Pioche Transect, Nevada: Constraints from Ar-40/Ar-39 Ages of Volcanic Rocks

Time-space relations of extension and volcanism place critical constraints on models of Basin and Range extensional processes. This paper addresses such relations in a 130-km-wide transect in the eastern Great Basin, bounded on the east by the Ely Springs Range and on the west by the Grant and Quinn Canyon ranges. Stratigraphic and structural data, combined with 40Ar/39Ar isotopic ages of volcanic rocks, document a protracted but distinctly episodic extensional history. Field relations indicate four periods of faulting. Only one of these periods was synchronous with nearby volcanic activity, which implies that volcanism and faulting need not be associated closely in space and time. Based on published dates and the analyses reported here, the periods of extension were (1) prevolcanic (pre-32 Ma), (2) early synvolcanic (30 to 27 Ma), (3) immediately postvolcanic (about 16 to 14 Ma), and (4) Pliocene to Quaternary. The break between the second and third periods is distinct. The minimum gap between the first two periods is 2 Ma, but the separation may be much larger. Temporal separation of the last two periods is only suggested by the stratigraphic record and cannot be rigorously demonstrated with present data. The three younger periods of faulting apparently occurred across the entire transect. The oldest period is recognized only at the eastern end of the transect, but appears to correlate about 150 km northward along strike with extension in the Northern Snake Range-Kern Mountains area. Therefore the oldest period also is regional in extent, but affected a different area than that affected by younger periods. This relation suggests that distinct extensional structures and master detachment faults were active at different times. The correlation of deformation periods of a few million years duration across the Railroad Valley-Pioche transect suggests that the scale of active extensional domains in the Great Basin may be greater than 100 km across strike.

Evaluating the optimal timing of surgical antimicrobial prophylaxis: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND Surgical site infections are the most common hospital-acquired infections among surgical patients. The administration of surgical antimicrobial prophylaxis reduces the risk of surgical site infections . The optimal timing of this procedure is still a matter of debate. While most studies suggest that it should be given as close to the incision time as possible, others conclude that this may be too late for optimal prevention of surgical site infections. A large observational study suggests that surgical antimicrobial prophylaxis should be administered 74 to 30 minutes before surgery. The aim of this article is to report the design and protocol of a randomized controlled trial investigating the optimal timing of surgical antimicrobial prophylaxis.Methods/design: In this bi-center randomized controlled trial conducted at two tertiary referral centers in Switzerland, we plan to include 5,000 patients undergoing general, oncologic, vascular and orthopedic trauma procedures. Patients are randomized in a 1:1 ratio into two groups: one receiving surgical antimicrobial prophylaxis in the anesthesia room (75 to 30 minutes before incision) and the other receiving surgical antimicrobial prophylaxis in the operating room (less than 30 minutes before incision). We expect a significantly lower rate of surgical site infections with surgical antimicrobial prophylaxis administered more than 30 minutes before the scheduled incision. The primary outcome is the occurrence of surgical site infections during a 30-day follow-up period (one year with an implant in place). When assuming a 5 surgical site infection risk with administration of surgical antimicrobial prophylaxis in the operating room, the planned sample size has an 80% power to detect a relative risk reduction for surgical site infections of 33% when administering surgical antimicrobial prophylaxis in the anesthesia room (with a two-sided type I error of 5%). We expect the study to be completed within three years. DISCUSSION The results of this randomized controlled trial will have an important impact on current international guidelines for infection control strategies in the hospital. Moreover, the results of this randomized controlled trial are of significant interest for patient safety and healthcare economics.Trial registration: This trial is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov under the identifier NCT01790529.