Mean-Field critical behavior and ergodicity break in a nonequilibrium one-dimensional RSOS growth model

We investigate the nonequilibrium roughening transition of a one-dimensional restricted solid-on-solid model by directly sampling the stationary probability density of a suitable order parameter as the surface adsorption rate varies. The shapes of the probability density histograms suggest a typical Ginzburg-Landau scenario for the phase transition of the model, and estimates of the "magnetic" exponent seem to confirm its mean-field critical behavior. We also found that the flipping times between the metastable phases of the model scale exponentially with the system size, signaling the breaking of ergodicity in the thermodynamic limit. Incidentally, we discovered that a closely related model not considered before also displays a phase transition with the same critical behavior as the original model. Our results support the usefulness of off-critical histogram techniques in the investigation of nonequilibrium phase transitions. We also briefly discuss in the appendix a good and simple pseudo-random number generator used in our simulations.

A comparison of deterministic, reliability-based and risk-based structural optimization under uncertainty

In this paper, the effects of uncertainty and expected costs of failure on optimum structural design are investigated, by comparing three distinct formulations of structural optimization problems. Deterministic Design Optimization (DDO) allows one the find the shape or configuration of a structure that is optimum in terms of mechanics, but the formulation grossly neglects parameter uncertainty and its effects on structural safety. Reliability-based Design Optimization (RBDO) has emerged as an alternative to properly model the safety-under-uncertainty part of the problem. With RBDO, one can ensure that a minimum (and measurable) level of safety is achieved by the optimum structure. However, results are dependent on the failure probabilities used as constraints in the analysis. Risk optimization (RO) increases the scope of the problem by addressing the compromising goals of economy and safety. This is accomplished by quantifying the monetary consequences of failure, as well as the costs associated with construction, operation and maintenance. RO yields the optimum topology and the optimum point of balance between economy and safety. Results are compared for some example problems. The broader RO solution is found first, and optimum results are used as constraints in DDO and RBDO. Results show that even when optimum safety coefficients are used as constraints in DDO, the formulation leads to configurations which respect these design constraints, reduce manufacturing costs but increase total expected costs (including expected costs of failure). When (optimum) system failure probability is used as a constraint in RBDO, this solution also reduces manufacturing costs but by increasing total expected costs. This happens when the costs associated with different failure modes are distinct. Hence, a general equivalence between the formulations cannot be established. Optimum structural design considering expected costs of failure cannot be controlled solely by safety factors nor by failure probability constraints, but will depend on actual structural configuration. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of sequence of insemination after simultaneous thawing of multiple semen straws on conception rate to timed AI in suckled multiparous Nelore cows

The objective was to determine the effect of sequence of insemination after simultaneous thawing of multiple 0.5 mL semen straws on conception rate in suckled multiparous Nelore cows. The effect of this thawing procedure on in vitro sperm characteristics was also evaluated. All cows (N = 944) received the same timed AI protocol. Ten straws (0.5 mL) of frozen semen from the same batch were simultaneously thawed at 36 degrees C, for a minimum of 30 sec. One straw per cow was used for timed AI. Frozen semen from three Angus bulls was used. Timed AI records included sequence of insemination (first to tenth) and time of semen removal from thawing bath. For laboratory analyses, the same semen batches used in the field experiment were evaluated. Ten frozen straws from the same batch were thawed simultaneously in a thawing unit identical to that used in the field experiment. The following sperm characteristics were analyzed: sperm motility parameters, sperm thermal resistance, plasma and acrosomal membrane integrity, lipid peroxidation, chromatin structure, and sperm morphometry. Based on logistic regression, there were no significant effects of breeding group, body condition score, AI technician, and sire on conception rate, but there was an interaction between sire and straw group (P = 0.002). Semen from only one bull had decreased (P < 0.05) field fertility for the group of straws associated with the longest interval from thawing to AI. However, the results of the laboratory experiment were unable to explain the findings of the field experiment. Sperm width:length ratio of morphometric analysis was the single sperm characteristic with a significant interaction between sire and straw group (P = 0.02). It was concluded that sequence of insemination after simultaneous thawing of 10 semen straws can differently affect conception rates at timed AI, depending on the sire used. Nevertheless, the effects of this thawing environment on in vitro sperm characteristics, remain to be further investigated. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lifetime Prevalence, Age and Gender Distribution and Age-of-Onset of Psychiatric Disorders in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area, Brazil: Results from the Sao Paulo Megacity Mental Health Survey

Objectives: To estimate prevalence, age-of-onset, gender distribution and identify correlates of lifetime psychiatric disorders in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA). Methods: The Sao Paulo Megacity Mental Health Survey assessed psychiatric disorders on a probabilistic sample of 5,037 adult residents in the SPMA, using the World Mental Health Survey Version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Response rate was 81.3%. Results: Lifetime prevalence for any disorder was 44.8%; estimated risk at age 75 was 57.7%; comorbidity was frequent. Major depression, specific phobias and alcohol abuse were the most prevalent across disorders; anxiety disorders were the most frequent class. Early age-of-onset for phobic and impulse-control disorders and later age-of-onset for mood disorders were observed. Women were more likely to have anxiety and mood disorders, whereas men, substance use disorders. Apart from conduct disorders, more frequent in men, there were no gender differences in impulse-control disorders. There was a consistent trend of higher prevalence in the youngest cohorts. Low education level was associated to substance use disorders. Conclusions: Psychiatric disorders are highly prevalent among the general adult population in the SPMA, with frequent comorbidity, early age-of-onset for most disorders, and younger cohorts presenting higher rates of morbidity. Such scenario calls for vigorous public health action.

PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF RESOURCE-AWARE BUSINESS PROCESSES USING STOCHASTIC AUTOMATA NETWORKS

In this work, we study the performance evaluation of resource-aware business process models. We define a new framework that allows the generation of analytical models for performance evaluation from business process models annotated with resource management information. This framework is composed of a new notation that allows the specification of resource management constraints and a method to convert a business process specification and its resource constraints into Stochastic Automata Networks (SANs). We show that the analysis of the generated SAN model provides several performance indices, such as average throughput of the system, average waiting time, average queues size, and utilization rate of resources. Using the BP2SAN tool - our implementation of the proposed framework - and a SAN solver (such as the PEPS tool) we show through a simple use-case how a business specialist with no skills in stochastic modeling can easily obtain performance indices that, in turn, can help to identify bottlenecks on the model, to perform workload characterization, to define the provisioning of resources, and to study other performance related aspects of the business process.

Mini-Mental State Examination sentence writing among community-dwelling elderly adults in Brazil: text fluency and grammar complexity

Background: In normal aging, the decrease in the syntactic complexity of written production is usually associated with cognitive deficits. This study was aimed to analyze the quality of older adults' textual production indicated by verbal fluency (number of words) and grammatical complexity (number of ideas) in relation to gender, age, schooling, and cognitive status. Methods: From a probabilistic sample of community-dwelling people aged 65 years and above (n = 900), 577 were selected on basis of their responses to the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) sentence writing, which were submitted to content analysis; 323 were excluded as they left the item blank or performed illegible or not meaningful responses. Education adjusted cut-off scores for the MMSE were used to classify the participants as cognitively impaired or unimpaired. Total and subdomain MMSE scores were computed. Results: 40.56% of participants whose answers to the MMSE sentence were excluded from the analyses had cognitive impairment compared to 13.86% among those whose answers were included. The excluded participants were older and less educated. Women and those older than 80 years had the lowest scores in the MMSE. There was no statistically significant relationship between gender, age, schooling, and textual performance. There was a modest but significant correlation between number of words written and the scores in the Language subdomain. Conclusions: Results suggest the strong influence of schooling and age over MMSE sentence performance. Failing to write a sentence may suggest cognitive impairment, yet, instructions for the MMSE sentence, i.e. to produce a simple sentence, may limit its clinical interpretation.

Chaotic encryption method based on life-like cellular automata

A chaotic encryption algorithm is proposed based on the "Life-like" cellular automata (CA), which acts as a pseudo-random generator (PRNG). The paper main focus is to use chaos theory to cryptography. Thus, CA was explored to look for this "chaos" property. This way, the manuscript is more concerning on tests like: Lyapunov exponent, Entropy and Hamming distance to measure the chaos in CA, as well as statistic analysis like DIEHARD and ENT suites. Our results achieved higher randomness quality than others ciphers in literature. These results reinforce the supposition of a strong relationship between chaos and the randomness quality. Thus, the "chaos" property of CA is a good reason to be employed in cryptography, furthermore, for its simplicity, low cost of implementation and respectable encryption power. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bagging k-dependence probabilistic networks: An alternative powerful fraud detection tool

Fraud is a global problem that has required more attention due to an accentuated expansion of modern technology and communication. When statistical techniques are used to detect fraud, whether a fraud detection model is accurate enough in order to provide correct classification of the case as a fraudulent or legitimate is a critical factor. In this context, the concept of bootstrap aggregating (bagging) arises. The basic idea is to generate multiple classifiers by obtaining the predicted values from the adjusted models to several replicated datasets and then combining them into a single predictive classification in order to improve the classification accuracy. In this paper, for the first time, we aim to present a pioneer study of the performance of the discrete and continuous k-dependence probabilistic networks within the context of bagging predictors classification. Via a large simulation study and various real datasets, we discovered that the probabilistic networks are a strong modeling option with high predictive capacity and with a high increment using the bagging procedure when compared to traditional techniques. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Low dynamic muscle strength and its associations with fatigue, functional performance, and quality of life in premenopausal patients with systemic lupus erythematosus and low disease activity: a case–control study

Abstract Background The purpose of the present study was to compare dynamic muscle strength, functional performance, fatigue, and quality of life in premenopausal systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients with low disease activity versus matched-healthy controls and to determine the association of dynamic muscle strength with fatigue, functional performance, and quality of life in SLE patients. Methods We evaluated premenopausal (18–45 years) SLE patients with low disease activity (Systemic lupus erythematosus disease activity index [SLEDAI]: mean 1.5 ± 1.2). The control (n = 25) and patient (n = 25) groups were matched by age, physical characteristics, and the level of physical activities in daily life (International Physical Activity Questionnaire IPAQ). Both groups had not participated in regular exercise programs for at least six months prior to the study. Dynamic muscle strength was assessed by one-repetition maximum (1-RM) tests. Functional performance was assessed by the Timed Up and Go (TUG), in 30-s test a chair stand and arm curl using a 2-kg dumbbell and balance test, handgrip strength and a sit-and-reach flexibility test. Quality of life (SF-36) and fatigue were also measured. Results The SLE patients showed significantly lower dynamic muscle strength in all exercises (leg press 25.63%, leg extension 11.19%, leg curl 15.71%, chest press 18.33%, lat pulldown 13.56%, 1-RM total load 18.12%, P < 0.001-0.02) compared to the controls. The SLE patients also had lower functional performance, greater fatigue and poorer quality of life. In addition, fatigue, SF-36 and functional performance accounted for 52% of the variance in dynamic muscle strength in the SLE patients. Conclusions Premenopausal SLE patients with low disease activity showed lower dynamic muscle strength, along with increased fatigue, reduced functional performance, and poorer quality of life when compared to matched controls.

Probabilistic failure modelling of reinforced concrete structures subjected to chloride penetration

Structural durability is an important criterion that must be evaluated for every type of structure. Concerning reinforced concrete members, chloride diffusion process is widely used to evaluate durability, especially when these structures are constructed in aggressive atmospheres. The chloride ingress triggers the corrosion of reinforcements; therefore, by modelling this phenomenon, the corrosion process can be better evaluated as well as the structural durability. The corrosion begins when a threshold level of chloride concentration is reached at the steel bars of reinforcements. Despite the robustness of several models proposed in literature, deterministic approaches fail to predict accurately the corrosion time initiation due the inherent randomness observed in this process. In this regard, structural durability can be more realistically represented using probabilistic approaches. This paper addresses the analyses of probabilistic corrosion time initiation in reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride penetration. The chloride penetration is modelled using the Fick's diffusion law. This law simulates the chloride diffusion process considering time-dependent effects. The probability of failure is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation and the first order reliability method, with a direct coupling approach. Some examples are considered in order to study these phenomena. Moreover, a simplified method is proposed to determine optimal values for concrete cover.

Lifetime Prevalence, age and gender distribution and age-of-onset of psychiatric disorders in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area, Brazil: results from the São Paulo Megacity Mental Health Survey

OBJECTIVES: To estimate prevalence, age-of-onset, gender distribution and identify correlates of lifetime psychiatric disorders in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA). METHODS: The São Paulo Megacity Mental Health Survey assessed psychiatric disorders on a probabilistic sample of 5,037 adult residents in the SPMA, using the World Mental Health Survey Version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Response rate was 81.3%. RESULTS: Lifetime prevalence for any disorder was 44.8%; estimated risk at age 75 was 57.7%; comorbidity was frequent. Major depression, specific phobias and alcohol abuse were the most prevalent across disorders; anxiety disorders were the most frequent class. Early age-of-onset for phobic and impulse-control disorders and later age-of-onset for mood disorders were observed. Women were more likely to have anxiety and mood disorders, whereas men, substance use disorders. Apart from conduct disorders, more frequent in men, there were no gender differences in impulse-control disorders. There was a consistent trend of higher prevalence in the youngest cohorts. Low education level was associated to substance use disorders. CONCLUSIONS: Psychiatric disorders are highly prevalent among the general adult population in the SPMA, with frequent comorbidity, early age-of-onset for most disorders, and younger cohorts presenting higher rates of morbidity. Such scenario calls for vigorous public health action.

Complexity of inferences in polytree-shaped semi-qualitative probabilistic networks

Semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) merge two important graphical model formalisms: Bayesian networks and qualitative probabilistic networks. They provade a very Complexity of inferences in polytree-shaped semi-qualitative probabilistic networks and qualitative probabilistic networks. They provide a very general modeling framework by allowing the combination of numeric and qualitative assessments over a discrete domain, and can be compactly encoded by exploiting the same factorization of joint probability distributions that are behind the bayesian networks. This paper explores the computational complexity of semi-qualitative probabilistic networks, and takes the polytree-shaped networks as its main target. We show that the inference problem is coNP-Complete for binary polytrees with multiple observed nodes. We also show that interferences can be performed in time linear in the number of nodes if there is a single observed node. Because our proof is construtive, we obtain an efficient linear time algorithm for SQPNs under such assumptions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first exact polynominal-time algorithm for SQPn. Together these results provide a clear picture of the inferential complexity in polytree-shaped SQPNs.

Dynamics of follicular growth and progesterone concentrations in cyclic and anestrous suckling Nelore cows (Bos indicus) treated with progesterone, equine chorionic gonadotropin, or temporary calf removal

The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of eCG and temporary calf removal (TCR) associated with progesterone (P4) treatment on the dynamics of follicular growth, CL size, and P4 concentrations in cyclic (n ¼ 36) and anestrous (n ¼ 30) Nelore cows. Cyclic (C) and anestrous (A) cows were divided into three groups. The control group received 2 mg of estradiol benzoate via intramuscular (IM) injection and an intravaginal device containing 1.9 g of P4 on Day 0. On Day 8, the device was removed, and the animals received 12.5 mg of dinoprost tromethamine IM. After 24 hours, the animals received 1 mg of estradiol benzoate IM. In the eCG group, cows received the same treatment described for the control group but also received 400 UI of eCG at the time of device removal. In the TCR group, calves were separated from the cows for 56 hours after device removal. Ultrasound exams were performed every 24 hours after device removal until the time of ovulation and 12 days after ovulation to measure the size of the CL. On the same day as the CL measurement, blood was collected to determine the plasma P4 level. Statistical analyses were performed with a significance level of P ≤ 0.05. In cyclic cows, the presence of the CL at the beginning of protocol resulted in a smaller follicle diameter at the time of device removal (7.4 ± 0.3 mm in cows with CL vs. 8.9 ± 0.4 mm in cows without CL; P ¼ 0.03). All cows ovulated within 72 hours after device removal. Anestrous cows treated with eCG or TCR showed follicle diameter at fixed-timed artificial insemination (A-eCG 10.2 ± 0.3 and A-TCR 10.3 ± 0.5 mm) and follicular growth rate (A-eCG 1.5 ± 0.2 and A-TCR 1.3 ± 0.1 mm/day) similar to cyclic cows (C-eCG 11.0 ± 0.6 and C-TCR 12.0 ± 0.5 mm) and (C-eCG 1.4 ± 0.2 and C-TCR 1.6 ± 0.2 mm/day, respectively; P ≤ 0.05). Despite the similarities in CL size, the average P4 concentration was higher in the A-TCR (9.6 ± 1.4 ng/mL) than in the A-control (4.0 ± 1.0 ng/mL) and C-TCR (4.4 ± 1.0 ng/mL) groups (P < 0.05). From these results, we conclude that eCG treatment and TCR improved the fertility of anestrous cows by providing follicular growth rates and size of dominant follicles similar to cyclic cows. Additionally, TCR increases the plasma concentrations of P4 in anestrous cows

Link prediction using a probabilistic description logic

Due to the growing interest in social networks, link prediction has received significant attention. Link prediction is mostly based on graph-based features, with some recent approaches focusing on domain semantics. We propose algorithms for link prediction that use a probabilistic ontology to enhance the analysis of the domain and the unavoidable uncertainty in the task (the ontology is specified in the probabilistic description logic crALC). The scalability of the approach is investigated, through a combination of semantic assumptions and graph-based features. We evaluate empirically our proposal, and compare it with standard solutions in the literature.

A complete CMOS UWB timed-array transmitter with a 3D Vivaldi antenna array for electronic high-resolution beam spatial scanning

We present a new Ultra Wide Band (UWB) Timed- Array Transmitter System with Beamforming capability for high-resolution remote acquisition of vital signals. The system consists of four identical channels, where each is formed of a serial topology with three modules: programmable delay circuit (PDC or τ), a novel UWB 5th Gaussian Derivative order pulse generator circuit (PG), and a planar Vivaldi antenna. The circuit was designed using 0.18μm CMOS standard process and the planar antenna array was designed with filmconductor on Rogers RO3206 substrate. Spice simulations results showed the pulse generation with 104 mVpp amplitude and 500 ps width. The power consumption is 543 μW, and energy consumption 0.27 pJ per pulse using a 2V power supply at a pulse repetition rate (PRR) of 100 MHz. Electromagnetic simulations results, using CST Microwave (MW) Studio 2011, showed the main lobe radiation with a gain maximum of 13.2 dB, 35.5º x 36.7º angular width, and a beam steering between 17º and -11º for azimuthal (θ) angles and 17º and -18º for elevation (φ) angles at the center frequency of 6 GHz