Kazakhstan: the regional success story; Tajikistan: a trial period; Uzbekistan: the major source of instability in Central Asia? OSW Study 15/2004

Kazakhstan: Kazakhstan can boast economic development like no other country in Central Asia. In contrast to other countries of the region, which have rich natural resources, Kazakhstan has managed to use its economic potential in a way that yields concrete benefits now and, at the same time, creates prospects for further sustainable economic growth. Tajikistan: Tajikistan in its present state has been built on the civil war experiences and provisions of the peace accords signed in 1997. These have had a great impact on the present form of the state, its political scene and power mechanisms. President Emomali Rakhmonov is the central figure in the state. The political system, which he has cocreated, is based on - unique in this region - political pluralism (the existence of the Islamic party), decentralisation (far-going independence of the regions and relatively limited potential of the central structures) and compromise as the basic way of resolving conflicts. Such a system has so far guaranteed stabilisation and normalisation of the country. Uzbekistan: With its geographic location, potential, ambitions and political priorities, Uzbekistan could play a leading role in Central Asia. The international community has perceived the country as the pillar of stability in the region. This perception was further reinforced after 11th September 2001 and was certainly among the factors that inspired the United States to start closer political and military cooperation with Tashkent. The administration in Washington had expected that closer contacts might galvanise political, economic and social change in Uzbekistan, thus reinforcing positive trends in other countries of the region as well. But the relations between Washington and Tashkent are in crisis (which the United States will certainly try to overcome), and we have seen rapprochement between Uzbekistan and Russia and China.

Strain-induced structural instability in FeRh

We perform density functional calculations to investigate the structure of the intermetallic alloy FeRh under epitaxial strain. Bulk FeRh exhibits a metamagnetic transition from a low-temperature antiferromagnetic (AFM) phase to a ferromagnetic phase at 350 K, and its strain dependence is of interest for tuning the transition temperature to the room-temperature operating conditions of typical memory devices. We find an unusually strong dependence of the structural energetics on the choice of exchange-correlation functional, with the usual local density approximation yielding the wrong ground-state structure, and generalized gradient (GGA) extensions being in better agreement with the bulk experimental structure. Using the GGA we show the existence of a metastable face-centered-cubic-like AFM structure that is reached from the ground-state body-centered-cubic-like AFM structure by following the epitaxial Bain path. We show that the behavior is well described using nonlinear elasticity theory, which captures the softening and eventual sign change of the orthorhombic shear modulus under compressive strain, consistent with this structural instability. Finally, we predict the existence of an additional unit-cell-doubling lattice instability, which should be observable at low temperature.

Gaussian elimination and numerical instability /

"UILU-ENG 77 1714."

Dimensional instability of Uranium.

Report year runs ends June 30.

Mechanism of dimensional instability /

"Classification cancelled or changed to UNCLASSIFIED by authority of TIS Change Notice No. 1849 by ASB TISOR, date 8/14/55."

Dimensional instability of uranium

"Contract AT(30-1)2101."

Basic studies of rotating stall and an investigation of flow-instability sensing devices

pt. 1. Basic studies of rotating stall flow mechanisms.--pt. 2. Investigation of flow-instability sensing devices.

Instability considerations for various difference equations derived from the diffusion equation,

"Prepared for American Mathematical Society Meeting, Los Angeles, California, Nov. 27, 1954."

Capillary jet instability under the influence of gravity

The focus of this paper is on the effect of gravity stretching on disturbed capillary jet instability. Break-up and droplet formation under low flows are simulated using finite difference solution of a one-dimensional approximation of disturbed capillary jet instability chosen from the work by Eggers and Dupont (J. Fluid Mech. 155 (1994) 289). Experiments were conducted using water and aqueous glycerol solutions to compare with simulations. We use a gravity parameter, G, which quantifies gravity stretching by relating flow velocity, orifice size and acceleration and is the reciprocal of the Fronde number. The optimum disturbance frequency Omega(opt) was found to be inversely proportional to G. However, this relationship appears to be complex for the range of G's investigated. At low G, the relationship between Omega(opt) and G appears to be linear but takes on a weakly decaying like trend as G increases. As flows are lowered, the satellite-free regime decreases, although experimental observation found that merging of main and satellite drops sometimes offset this effect to result in monodispersed droplet trains post break-up. Viscosity did not significantly affect the relationship between the disturbance frequency and G, although satellite drops could be seen more clearly close to the upper limit for instability at high G's. It is possible to define regimes of satellite formation under low flows by considering local wavenumbers at the point of instability. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Complete modulational-instability gain spectrum of nonlinear quasi-phase-matching gratings

We consider plane waves propagating in quadratic nonlinear slab waveguides with nonlinear quasi-phase-matching gratings. We predict analytically and verify numerically the complete gain spectrum for transverse modulational instability, including hitherto undescribed higher-order gain bands. (C) 2004 Optical Society of America.

Finite element analysis of fault bend influence on stick-slip instability along an intra-plate fault

Earthquakes have been recognized as resulting from stick-slip frictional instabilities along the faults between deformable rocks. A three-dimensional finite-element code for modeling the nonlinear frictional contact behaviors between deformable bodies with the node-to-point contact element strategy has been developed and applied here to investigate the fault geometry influence on the nucleation and development process of the stick-slip instability along an intra-plate fault through a typical fault bend model, which has a pre-cut fault that is artificially bent by an angle of 5.6degrees at the fault center. The numerical results demonstrate that the geometry of the fault significantly affects nucleation, termination and restart of the stick-slip instability along the intra-plate fault, and all these instability phenomena can be well simulated using the current finite-element algorithm.

Theoretical investigation of convective instability in inclined and fluid-saturated three-dimensional fault zones.

The convective instability of pore-fluid flow in inclined and fluid-saturated three-dimensional fault zones has been theoretically investigated in this paper. Due to the consideration of the inclined three-dimensional fault zone with any values of the inclined angle, it is impossible to use the conventional linear stability analysis method for deriving the critical condition (i.e., the critical Rayleigh number) which can be used to investigate the convective instability of the pore-fluid flow in an inclined three-dimensional fault zone system. To overcome this mathematical difficulty, a combination of the variable separation method and the integration elimination method has been used to derive the characteristic equation, which depends on the Rayleigh number and the inclined angle of the inclined three-dimensional fault zone. Using this characteristic equation, the critical Rayleigh number of the system can be numerically found as a function of the inclined angle of the three-dimensional fault zone. For a vertically oriented three-dimensional fault zone system, the critical Rayleigh number of the system can be explicitly derived from the characteristic equation. Comparison of the resulting critical Rayleigh number of the system with that previously derived in a vertically oriented three-dimensional fault zone has demonstrated that the characteristic equation of the Rayleigh number is correct and useful for investigating the convective instability of pore-fluid flow in the inclined three-dimensional fault zone system. The related numerical results from this investigation have indicated that: (1) the convective pore-fluid flow may take place in the inclined three-dimensional fault zone; (2) if the height of the fault zone is used as the characteristic length of the system, a decrease in the inclined angle of the inclined fault zone stabilizes the three-dimensional fundamental convective flow in the inclined three-dimensional fault zone system; (3) if the thickness of the stratum is used as the characteristic length of the system, a decrease in the inclined angle of the inclined fault zone destabilizes the three-dimensional fundamental convective flow in the inclined three-dimensional fault zone system; and that (4) the shape of the inclined three-dimensional fault zone may affect the convective instability of pore-fluid flow in the system. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Asset Price Instability and Policy Responses: The Legacy of Liberalization

The problem of asset price bubbles, and more generally of instability in the financial system, has been a matter of concern since the 1980s but has only recently moved to the center of the macroeconomic policy debate. The main concern with bubbles arises when they burst, imposing losses on investors holding the bubble assets and potentially on the financial institutions that have extended credit to them. Asset price volatility is an inevitable consequence of financial market liberalization and, in extreme cases, generates asset price bubbles, the bursting of which can impose substantial economic and social costs. Policy responses within the existing liberalized financial system face daunting levels of uncertainty and risk. Given the pattern of increasing asset market volatility over recent decades and the policy issues highlighted in this paper, the future looks uncertain. Another significant cycle of asset price movements, especially in one of the major economies, could see a fundamental revision of thinking about the costs and benefits of liberalized financial systems.