Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a major threat, not only to countries whose economies rely on agricultural exports, but also to industrialised countries that maintain a healthy domestic livestock industry by eliminating major infectious diseases from their livestock populations. Traditional methods of controlling diseases such as FMD require the rapid detection and slaughter of infected animals, and any susceptible animals with which they may have been in contact, either directly or indirectly. During the 2001 epidemic of FMD in the United Kingdom (UK), this approach was supplemented by a culling policy driven by unvalidated predictive models. The epidemic and its control resulted in the death of approximately ten million animals, public disgust with the magnitude of the slaughter, and political resolve to adopt alternative options, notably including vaccination, to control any future epidemics. The UK experience provides a salutary warning of how models can be abused in the interests of scientific opportunism.

e-learning in project management using simulation models: a case study based on the replication of an experiment

Current e-learning systems are increasing their importance in higher education. However, the state of the art of e-learning applications, besides the state of the practice, does not achieve the level of interactivity that current learning theories advocate. In this paper, the possibility of enhancing e-learning systems to achieve deep learning has been studied by replicating an experiment in which students had to learn basic software engineering principles. One group learned these principles using a static approach, while the other group learned the same principles using a system-dynamics-based approach, which provided interactivity and feedback. The results show that, quantitatively, the latter group achieved a better understanding of the principles; furthermore, qualitatively, they enjoyed the learning experience

The interplay between geometry, electronic structure, and reactivity of Cu-Ni bimetallic (111) surfaces

The mutual influence of surface geometry (e.g. lattice parameters, morphology) and electronic structure is discussed for Cu-Ni bimetallic (111) surfaces. It is found that on flat surfaces the electronic d-states of the adlayer experience very little influence from the substrate electronic structure which is due to their large separation in binding energies and the close match of Cu and Ni lattice constants. Using carbon monoxide and benzene as probe molecules, it is found that in most cases the reactivity of Cu or Ni adlayers is very similar to the corresponding (111) single crystal surfaces. Exceptions are the adsorption of CO on submonolayers of Cu on Ni(111) and the dissociation of benzene on Ni/Cu(111) which is very different from Ni(111). These differences are related to geometric factors influencing the adsorption on these surfaces.

In vitro examination of the effect of Orlistat on the ability of the faecal microbiota to utilize dietary lipids

Orlistat is an anti-obesity treatment with which several gastrointestinal (GI) side-effects are commonly associated in the initial stages of therapy. There is no physiological explanation as to why two-thirds of those who take the drug experience one or more side-effects. It has been hypothesized that the GI microbiota may protect from or contribute to these GI disturbances. Using in vitro batch culture and human gut model systems, studies were conducted to determine whether increased availability of dietary lipids and/or orlistat affect the composition and/or activity of the faecal microbiota. Results from 24-h batch culture fermentation experiments demonstrated no effect of orlistat in the presence or absence of a dietary lipid (olive oil) on the composition of bacterial communities [as determined by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) analyses], but did show there was great variability in the lipolytic activities of the microbiotas of individuals, as determined by gas chromatography analysis of long-chain fatty acids in samples. Subsequent studies focused on the effect of orlistat in the presence and absence of lipid in in vitro human gut model systems. Systems were run for 14 days with gut model medium (GMM) only (to steady state, SS), then fed at 12-h intervals with 50 mg orlistat, 2 g olive oil or a mixture of both for 14 days. FISH and DGGE were used to monitor changes in bacterial populations. Bacteria were cultivated from the GMM only (control) systems at SS. All strains isolated were screened for lipolytic activity using tributyrin agar. FISH and DGGE demonstrated that none of the compounds (singly or in combination) added to the systems had any notable effect on microbial population dynamics for any of the donors, although Subdoligranulum populations appeared to be inhibited by orlistat in the presence or absence of lipid. Orlistat had little or no effect on the metabolism of indigenous and added lipids in the fermentation systems, but there was great variability in the way the faecal microbiotas of the donors were able to degrade added lipids. Variability in lipid degradation could be correlated with the number and activity of isolated lipolytic bacteria. The mechanism by which orlistat and the GI microbiota cause side-effects in individuals is unknown, but several hypotheses have been proposed to account for their manifestation. The demonstration of great variability in the lipolytic activity of microbiotas to degrade lipids led to a large-scale cultivation-based study of lipolytic/lipase-positive bacteria present in the human faecal microbiota. Of 4,000 colonies isolated from 15 donors using five different agars, 378 strains were identified that had lipase activity. Molecular identification of strains isolated from five donors demonstrated that lipase activity is more prevalent in the human GI microbiota than previously thought, with members of the phyla Firmicutes, Bacteroidetes and Actinobacteria identified. Molecular identification and characterization of the substrate specificities of the strains will be carried out as part of ongoing work.

Shaping children’s mobilities: expectations of gendered parenting in the English rural idyll

This paper explores the impact of local parenting practices and children's everyday use of public space within two villages in the rural South West of England, an issue that has been underexplored in recent research. Drawing upon the concept of hybridity, it explores the interplay between the social, natural and material in shaping local cultures of rural parenting. The paper begins by drawing upon recent research on parenting in the global North, the gendering of rural space and hybridity to show how these bodies of work can be interlinked to better understand rural parenting practices and norms. Through empirical research that focused on the relationships between gendered parenting strategies, idealised notions of rural motherhood and materiality, the paper explores the diverse ways in which a group of working and middle-class mothers construct and define ideas about their children's lives and mobilities. Whilst dominant discourses of rurality focus upon the idyll, and gendered identities of rural women still remain within the domestic sphere, so we examine how these deeply embedded notions of ‘normality’ can be powerful social tools in rural villages, mobilised through discourses of materiality and anxiety. In our conclusions, we argue that the hybrid integration of the material and social provides a useful framework for understanding the everyday geographies of rural parenting.

Online customer experience in e-retailing: an empirical model of antecedents and outcomes

The theoretical understanding of online shopping behavior has received much attention. Less focus has been given to the formation of the customer experience (CE) that results from online shopper interactions with e-retailers. This study develops and empirically tests a model of the relationship between antecedents and outcomes of online customer experience (OCE) within Internet shopping websites using an international sample. The study identifies and provides operational measures of these variables plus the cognitive and affective components of OCE. The paper makes contributions towards new knowledge and understanding of how e-

Portals to the world: technological extensions to the boundaries of the home

This article examines the ways that technological objects inside the home are viewed and productively used by a group of older people to extend their access to environments beyond the home. Beginning with a discussion of types of domestic object, we highlight appliances and gadgets, and focus our attentions on the latter. The changes in life brought on by ageing, in particular a reduction in mobility, provide the context for our study, in which access to the outside world becomes increasingly difficult. Recognising their changing circumstances led our participants to actively and selectively engage with these objects, mitigating the shrinking of their accessible environment by using them as a gateway to the many virtual worlds now available. We coin the term ‘portal objects’ to describe the potential that this type of technological object provides, and suggest that the investigation of interiors can be enriched by recognising and including the worlds outside that become integral to occupation inside.

Teen TV meets T4: assimilating 'The O.C.' into British youth television

This article explores the presence of imported US Teen TV in the schedules of British youth television and the relationship between the two national forms. Focusing on the broadcast of The O.C on Channel 4 youth strand T4, it considers the role of the spaces in-between programmes in framing the audience’s experience of the imported US text. It demonstrates how the T4 supertext employed presenter performance, critique and parody to assimilate the glamorously aspirational US Teen TV text into the cynically engaged flow of British youth television.

The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management

Although ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are increasingly promoted as the scientific state-of-the-art for operational flood forecasting, the communication, perception, and use of the resulting alerts have received much less attention. Using a variety of qualitative research methods, including direct user feedback at training workshops, participant observation during site visits to 25 forecasting centres across Europe, and in-depth interviews with 69 forecasters, civil protection officials, and policy makers involved in operational flood risk management in 17 European countries, this article discusses the perception, communication, and use of European Flood Alert System (EFAS) alerts in operational flood management. In particular, this article describes how the design of EFAS alerts has evolved in response to user feedback and desires for a hydrographic-like way of visualizing EFAS outputs. It also documents a variety of forecaster perceptions about the value and skill of EFAS forecasts and the best way of using them to inform operational decision making. EFAS flood alerts were generally welcomed by flood forecasters as a sort of ‘pre-alert’ to spur greater internal vigilance. In most cases, however, they did not lead, by themselves, to further preparatory action or to earlier warnings to the public or emergency services. Their hesitancy to act in response to medium-term, probabilistic alerts highlights some wider institutional obstacles to the hopes in the research community that EPS will be readily embraced by operational forecasters and lead to immediate improvements in flood incident management. The EFAS experience offers lessons for other hydrological services seeking to implement EPS operationally for flood forecasting and warning. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Analysis of the variability of auditory brainstem response components through linear regression

(ABR) is of fundamental importance to the investiga- tion of the auditory system behavior, though its in- terpretation has a subjective nature because of the manual process employed in its study and the clinical experience required for its analysis. When analyzing the ABR, clinicians are often interested in the identi- fication of ABR signal components referred to as Jewett waves. In particular, the detection and study of the time when these waves occur (i.e., the wave la- tency) is a practical tool for the diagnosis of disorders affecting the auditory system. In this context, the aim of this research is to compare ABR manual/visual analysis provided by different examiners. Methods: The ABR data were collected from 10 normal-hearing subjects (5 men and 5 women, from 20 to 52 years). A total of 160 data samples were analyzed and a pair- wise comparison between four distinct examiners was executed. We carried out a statistical study aiming to identify significant differences between assessments provided by the examiners. For this, we used Linear Regression in conjunction with Bootstrap, as a me- thod for evaluating the relation between the responses given by the examiners. Results: The analysis sug- gests agreement among examiners however reveals differences between assessments of the variability of the waves. We quantified the magnitude of the ob- tained wave latency differences and 18% of the inves- tigated waves presented substantial differences (large and moderate) and of these 3.79% were considered not acceptable for the clinical practice. Conclusions: Our results characterize the variability of the manual analysis of ABR data and the necessity of establishing unified standards and protocols for the analysis of these data. These results may also contribute to the validation and development of automatic systems that are employed in the early diagnosis of hearing loss.

Assessment of inter-examiner agreement and variability in the manual classification of auditory brainstem response

Abstract Background: The analysis of the Auditory Brainstem Response (ABR) is of fundamental importance to the investigation of the auditory system behaviour, though its interpretation has a subjective nature because of the manual process employed in its study and the clinical experience required for its analysis. When analysing the ABR, clinicians are often interested in the identification of ABR signal components referred to as Jewett waves. In particular, the detection and study of the time when these waves occur (i.e., the wave latency) is a practical tool for the diagnosis of disorders affecting the auditory system. Significant differences in inter-examiner results may lead to completely distinct clinical interpretations of the state of the auditory system. In this context, the aim of this research was to evaluate the inter-examiner agreement and variability in the manual classification of ABR. Methods: A total of 160 ABR data samples were collected, for four different stimulus intensity (80dBHL, 60dBHL, 40dBHL and 20dBHL), from 10 normal-hearing subjects (5 men and 5 women, from 20 to 52 years). Four examiners with expertise in the manual classification of ABR components participated in the study. The Bland-Altman statistical method was employed for the assessment of inter-examiner agreement and variability. The mean, standard deviation and error for the bias, which is the difference between examiners’ annotations, were estimated for each pair of examiners. Scatter plots and histograms were employed for data visualization and analysis. Results: In most comparisons the differences between examiner’s annotations were below 0.1 ms, which is clinically acceptable. In four cases, it was found a large error and standard deviation (>0.1 ms) that indicate the presence of outliers and thus, discrepancies between examiners. Conclusions: Our results quantify the inter-examiner agreement and variability of the manual analysis of ABR data, and they also allows for the determination of different patterns of manual ABR analysis.

The spectacle of modernity: blood, microscopes and mirrors in Colonial Tanganyika

The chapter focuses on attempts to change and improve the subjects of the colonial regime in what was the British Protectorate of Tanganyika, contemporary Tanzania. The colonial project in Africa was surrounded by technology, ideology, and representations of modernity based on the application of instrumental rationality. Through the example of colonial practices to control sleeping sickness, it examines how local forms of knowledge and livelihoods were negated and counter-tendencies people generated, offering explanations for the predicament of the human condition consequent upon the colonial experience.

Children of the golden minster: St. Oswald's Priory and the impact of industrialisation on child health.

This study explores the disease experience of children buried within the cemetery of St. Oswald’s Priory, Gloucester from AD1153 to 1857. Evidence for ages-at-death, infant mortality, and the prevalence of stress indicators, trauma, and pathology were compared between the early and postmedieval periods. The skeletal remains of these children provide evidence for child health spanning the economic expansion of Gloucester at St. Oswald’s, from a mostly rural parish to a graveyard catering for families from the poorer northern part of the town and the workhouse. Results showed that the children from the postmedieval period in Gloucester suffered higher rates of dental caries (38%) and congenital conditions (17.3%) than their counterparts from the early and later medieval period. This paper serves to highlight the value of nonadult skeletal material in the interpretation of past human health in transitional societies and illustrates the wide variety of pathological conditions that can be observed in nonadult skeletons.