Bidding at sequential first-price auctions with(out) supply uncertainty: a laboratory analysis

We report on a series of experiments that test the effects of an uncertain supply on the formation of bids and prices in sequential first-price auctions with private-independent values and unit-demands. Supply is assumed uncertain when buyers do not know the exact number of units to be sold (i.e., the length of the sequence). Although we observe a non-monotone behavior when supply is certain and an important overbidding, the data qualitatively support our price trend predictions and the risk neutral Nash equilibrium model of bidding for the last stage of a sequence, whether supply is certain or not. Our study shows that behavior in these markets changes significantly with the presence of an uncertain supply, and that it can be explained by assuming that bidders formulate pessimistic beliefs about the occurrence of another stage.

Competitive interactions between species of fresh-water snails: I. Laboratory. IC. Comparative survival of Biomphalaria glabrata and B. Straminea kept out of water

Biomphalaria glabrata and B. straminea were submitted to an out-door laboratory experiment for testing their comparative ability to resist desiccation. Results have shown that B. straminea is significantly higher resistant than B. glabrata. After five months under such distressing condition the survival ratios were: B. glabrata 8.1 per cent and B. straminea 18.4 per cent.

Evaluation de la douleur chez les personnes cérébrolésées non-communicantes aux soins intensifs

La douleur est fréquente en milieu de soins intensifs et sa gestion est l'une des missions des infirmières. Son évaluation est une prémisse indispensable à son soulagement. Cependant lorsque le patient est incapable de signaler sa douleur, les infirmières doivent se baser sur des signes externes pour l'évaluer. Les guides de bonne pratique recommandent chez les personnes non communicantes l'usage d'un instrument validé pour la population donnée et basé sur l'observation des comportements. A l'heure actuelle, les instruments d'évaluation de la douleur disponibles ne sont que partiellement adaptés aux personnes cérébrolésées dans la mesure où ces personnes présentent des comportements qui leur sont spécifiques. C'est pourquoi, cette étude vise à identifier, décrire et valider des indicateurs, et des descripteurs, de la douleur chez les personnes cérébrolésées. Un devis d'étude mixte multiphase avec une dominante quantitative a été choisi pour cette étude. Une première phase consistait à identifier des indicateurs et des descripteurs de la douleur chez les personnes cérébrolésées non communicantes aux soins intensifs en combinant trois sources de données : une revue intégrative des écrits, une démarche consultative utilisant la technique du groupe nominal auprès de 18 cliniciens expérimentés (6 médecins et 12 infirmières) et les résultats d'une étude pilote observationnelle réalisée auprès de 10 traumatisés crâniens. Les résultats ont permis d'identifier 6 indicateurs et 47 descripteurs comportementaux, vocaux et physiologiques susceptibles d'être inclus dans un instrument d'évaluation de la douleur destiné aux personnes cérébrolésées non- communicantes aux soins intensifs. Une deuxième phase séquentielle vérifiait les propriétés psychométriques des indicateurs et des descripteurs préalablement identifiés. La validation de contenu a été testée auprès de 10 experts cliniques et 4 experts scientifiques à l'aide d'un questionnaire structuré qui cherchait à évaluer la pertinence et la clarté/compréhensibilité de chaque descripteur. Cette démarche a permis de sélectionner 33 des 47 descripteurs et valider 6 indicateurs. Dans un deuxième temps, les propriétés psychométriques de ces indicateurs et descripteurs ont été étudiés au repos, lors de stimulation non nociceptive et lors d'une stimulation nociceptive (la latéralisation du patient) auprès de 116 personnes cérébrolésées aux soins intensifs hospitalisées dans deux centres hospitaliers universitaires. Les résultats montrent d'importantes variations dans les descripteurs observés lors de stimulation nociceptive probablement dues à l'hétérogénéité des patients au niveau de leur état de conscience. Dix descripteurs ont été éliminés, car leur fréquence lors de la stimulation nociceptive était inférieure à 5% ou leur fiabilité insuffisante. Les descripteurs physiologiques ont tous été supprimés en raison de leur faible variabilité et d'une fiabilité inter juge problématique. Les résultats montrent que la validité concomitante, c'est-à-dire la corrélation entre l'auto- évaluation du patient et les mesures réalisées avec les descripteurs, est satisfaisante lors de stimulation nociceptive {rs=0,527, p=0,003, n=30). Par contre la validité convergente, qui vérifiait l'association entre l'évaluation de la douleur par l'infirmière en charge du patient et les mesures réalisés avec les descripteurs, ainsi que la validité divergente, qui vérifiait si les indicateurs discriminent entre la stimulation nociceptive et le repos, mettent en évidence des résultats variables en fonction de l'état de conscience des patients. Ces résultats soulignent la nécessité d'étudier les descripteurs de la douleur chez des patients cérébrolésés en fonction du niveau de conscience et de considérer l'hétérogénéité de cette population dans la conception d'un instrument d'évaluation de la douleur pour les personnes cérébrolésées non communicantes aux soins intensifs. - Pain is frequent in the intensive care unit (ICU) and its management is a major issue for nurses. The assessment of pain is a prerequisite for appropriate pain management. However, pain assessment is difficult when patients are unable to communicate about their experience and nurses have to base their evaluation on external signs. Clinical practice guidelines highlight the need to use behavioral scales that have been validated for nonverbal patients. Current behavioral pain tools for ICU patients unable to communicate may not be appropriate for nonverbal brain-injured ICU patients, as they demonstrate specific responses to pain. This study aimed to identify, describe and validate pain indicators and descriptors in brain-injured ICU patients. A mixed multiphase method design with a quantitative dominant was chosen for this study. The first phase aimed to identify indicators and descriptors of pain for nonverbal brain- injured ICU patients using data from three sources: an integrative literature review, a consultation using the nominal group technique with 18 experienced clinicians (12 nurses and 6 physicians) and the results of an observational pilot study with 10 traumatic brain injured patients. The results of this first phase identified 6 indicators and 47 behavioral, vocal and physiological descriptors of pain that could be included in a pain assessment tool for this population. The sequential phase two tested the psychometric properties of the list of previously identified indicators and descriptors. Content validity was tested with 10 clinical and 4 scientific experts for pertinence and comprehensibility using a structured questionnaire. This process resulted in 33 descriptors to be selected out of 47 previously identified, and six validated indicators. Then, the psychometric properties of the descriptors and indicators were tested at rest, during non nociceptive stimulation and nociceptive stimulation (turning) in a sample of 116 brain-injured ICLI patients who were hospitalized in two university centers. Results showed important variations in the descriptors observed during the nociceptive stimulation, probably due to the heterogeneity of patients' level of consciousness. Ten descriptors were excluded, as they were observed less than 5% of the time or their reliability was insufficient. All physiologic descriptors were deleted as they showed little variability and inter observer reliability was lacking. Concomitant validity, testing the association between patients' self report of pain and measures performed using the descriptors, was acceptable during nociceptive stimulation (rs=0,527, p=0,003, n=30). However, convergent validity ( testing for an association between the nurses' pain assessment and measures done with descriptors) and divergent validity (testing for the ability of the indicators to discriminate between rest and a nociceptive stimulation) varied according to the level of consciousness These results highlight the need to study pain descriptors in brain-injured patients with different level of consciousness and to take into account the heterogeneity of this population forthe conception of a pain assessment tool for nonverbal brain-injured ICU patients.

Quantitative and qualitative research on brief systemic therapies carried out within the framework of an ambulatory consultation for couples and families

Abstract: This article presents both a brief systemic intervention method (IBS) consisting in 6 sessions developed in an ambulatory service for couples and families, and two research projects done in collaboration with the Institute for Psychotherapy of the University of Lausanne. The first project is quantitative and it aims at evaluating the effectiveness of ISB. One of its main feature is that outcomes are assessed at different levels of individual and family functioning: 1) symptoms and individual functioning; 2) quality of marital relationship; 3) parental and co-parental relationships; 4) familial relationships. The second project is a qualitative case study about a marital therapy which identifies and analyses significant moments of the therapeutic process from the patients' perspective. Methodology was largely inspired by Daniel Stem's work about "moments of meeting" in psychotherapy. Results show that patients' theories about relationship and change are important elements that deepen our understanding of the change process in couple and family therapy. The interest of associating clinicians and researchers for the development and validation of a new clinical model is discussed.

Time is Running Out: The 2°C Target and Optimal Climate Policies

The quintessence of recent natural science studies is that the 2 degrees C target can only be achieved with massive emission reductions in the next few years. The central twist of this paper is the addition of this limited time to act into a non-perpetual real options framework analysing optimal climate policy under uncertainty. The window-of-opportunity modelling setup shows that the limited time to act may spark a trend reversal in the direction of low-carbon alternatives. However, the implementation of a climate policy is evaded by high uncertainty about possible climate pathways.

Evolution of insulin sensitivity and its variability in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients treated with hypothermia.

INTRODUCTION: Therapeutic hypothermia (TH) is often used to treat out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients who also often simultaneously receive insulin for stress-induced hyperglycaemia. However, the impact of TH on systemic metabolism and insulin resistance in critical illness is unknown. This study analyses the impact of TH on metabolism, including the evolution of insulin sensitivity (SI) and its variability, in patients with coma after OHCA. METHODS: This study uses a clinically validated, model-based measure of SI. Insulin sensitivity was identified hourly using retrospective data from 200 post-cardiac arrest patients (8,522 hours) treated with TH, shortly after admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). Blood glucose and body temperature readings were taken every one to two hours. Data were divided into three periods: 1) cool (T <35°C); 2) an idle period of two hours as normothermia was re-established; and 3) warm (T >37°C). A maximum of 24 hours each for the cool and warm periods was considered. The impact of each condition on SI is analysed per cohort and per patient for both level and hour-to-hour variability, between periods and in six-hour blocks. RESULTS: Cohort and per-patient median SI levels increase consistently by 35% to 70% and 26% to 59% (P <0.001) respectively from cool to warm. Conversely, cohort and per-patient SI variability decreased by 11.1% to 33.6% (P <0.001) for the first 12 hours of treatment. However, SI variability increases between the 18th and 30th hours over the cool to warm transition, before continuing to decrease afterward. CONCLUSIONS: OCHA patients treated with TH have significantly lower and more variable SI during the cool period, compared to the later warm period. As treatment continues, SI level rises, and variability decreases consistently except for a large, significant increase during the cool to warm transition. These results demonstrate increased resistance to insulin during mild induced hypothermia. Our study might have important implications for glycaemic control during targeted temperature management.

Keeping Up with the Joneses: Who Loses Out?

This paper investigates how well-being varies with individual wage rates when individuals care about relative consumption and so there are Veblen effects – Keeping up with the Joneses – leading individuals to over-work. In the case where individuals compare themselves with their peers – those with the same wage-rate - it is shown that Keeping up with the Joneses leads some individuals to work who otherwise would have chosen not to. Moreover for these individuals well-being is a decreasing function of the wage rate - contrary to standard theory. So those who are worst-off in society are no longer those on the lowest wage.

Out of sight, out of mind? Educational outcomes of children with parents working abroad.

Impact of parental emigration on educational outcomes of children is theoretically ambiguous. Using novel data I collected on migration experience and its timing, family background and school performance of lower secondary pupils in Poland, I analyse the question empirically. Migration is mostly temporary in nature, with one parent engaging in employment abroad. As many as 63% of migrant parents have vocational qualifications, 29% graduated from high school, 4% have no qualifications and the remaining 4% graduated from university. Almost 18% of children are affected by parental migration. Perhaps surprisingly, estimates suggest that parental employment abroad has a positive immediate impact on a pupil’s grade. Parental education appears pivotal; children of high school graduates benefit most. Longer term effects appear more negative, however, suggesting that a prolonged migration significantly lowers a child’s grade. Interestingly, siblings’ foreign experiences exert a large, positive impact on pupils’ grades.

Sorting out measures and definitions of screening participation to improve comparability: The example of colorectal cancer.

Participation is a key indicator of the potential effectiveness of any population-based intervention. Defining, measuring and reporting participation in cancer screening programmes has become more heterogeneous as the number and diversity of interventions have increased, and the purposes of this benchmarking parameter have broadened. This study, centred on colorectal cancer, addresses current issues that affect the increasingly complex task of comparing screening participation across settings. Reports from programmes with a defined target population and active invitation scheme, published between 2005 and 2012, were reviewed. Differences in defining and measuring participation were identified and quantified, and participation indicators were grouped by aims of measure and temporal dimensions. We found that consistent terminology, clear and complete reporting of participation definition and systematic documentation of coverage by invitation were lacking. Further, adherence to definitions proposed in the 2010 European Guidelines for Quality Assurance in Colorectal Cancer Screening was suboptimal. Ineligible individuals represented 1% to 15% of invitations, and variable criteria for ineligibility yielded differences in participation estimates that could obscure the interpretation of colorectal cancer screening participation internationally. Excluding ineligible individuals from the reference population enhances comparability of participation measures. Standardised measures of cumulative participation to compare screening protocols with different intervals and inclusion of time since invitation in definitions are urgently needed to improve international comparability of colorectal cancer screening participation. Recommendations to improve comparability of participation indicators in cancer screening interventions are made.

A stepwise protocol to coat aAPC beads prevents out-competition of anti-CD3 mAb and consequent experimental artefacts.

Artificial antigen-presenting cells (aAPC) are widely used for both clinical and basic research applications, as cell-based or bead-based scaffolds, combining immune synapse components of interest. Adequate and controlled preparation of aAPCs is crucial for subsequent immunoassays. We reveal that certain proteins such as activatory anti-CD3 antibody can be out-competed by other proteins (e.g. inhibitory receptor ligands such as PDL1:Fc) during the coating of aAPC beads, under the usually performed coating procedures. This may be misleading, as we found that decreased CD8 T cell activity was not due to inhibitory receptor triggering but rather because of unexpectedly low anti-CD3 antibody density on the beads upon co-incubation with inhibitory receptor ligands. We propose an optimized protocol, and emphasize the need to quality-control the coating of proteins on aAPC beads prior to their use in immunoassays.

Collective victimisation and collective guilt in the former Yugoslavia : the interplay between individual, local and societal levels

The thesis examines the impact of collective war victimization on individuals' readiness to accept or assign collective guilt for past war atrocities. As a complement to previous studies, its aim is to articulate an integrated approach to collective victimization, which distinguishes between individual-, communal-, and societal-level consequences of warfare. Building on a social representation approach, it is guided by the assumption that individuals form beliefs about a conflict through their personal experiences of victimization, communal experiences of warfare that occur in their proximal surrounding, and the mass- mediatised narratives that circulate in a society's public sphere. Four empirical studies test the hypothesis that individuals' beliefs about the conflict depend on the level and type of war experiences to which they have been exposed, that is, on informative and normative micro and macro contexts in which they are embedded. The studies have been conducted in the context of the Yugoslav wars that attended the breakup of Yugoslavia, a series of wars fought between 1991 and 2001 during which numerous war atrocities were perpetrated causing a massive victimisation of population. To examine the content and impact of war experiences at each level of analysis, the empirical studies employed various methodological strategies, from quantitative analyses of a representative public opinion survey, to qualitative analyses of media content and political speeches. Study 1 examines the impact of individual- and communal- level war experiences on individuals' acceptance and assignment of collective guilt. It further examines the impact of the type of communal level victimization: exposure to symmetric (i.e., violence that similarly affects members of different ethnic groups, including adversaries) and asymmetric violence. The main goal of Study 2 is to examine the structural and political circumstances that enhance collective guilt assignment. While the previous studies emphasize the role of past victimisation, Study 2 tests the assumption that the political demobilisation strategy employed by elites facing public discontent in the collective system-threatening circumstances can fuel out-group blame. Studies 3 and 4 have been conducted predominantly in the context of Croatia and examine rhetoric construction of the dominant politicized narrative of war in a public sphere (Study 3) and its maintenance through public delegitimization of alternative (critical) representations (Study 4). Study 4 further examines the likelihood that highly identified group members adhere to publicly delegitimized critical stances on war. - Cette thèse étudie l'impact de la victimisation collective de guerre sur la capacité des individus à accepter ou à attribuer une culpabilité collective liée à des atrocités commises en temps de guerre. En compléments aux recherches existantes, le but de ce travail est de définir une approche intégrative de la victimisation collective, qui distingue les conséquences de la guerre aux niveaux individuel, régional et sociétal. En partant de l'approche des représentations sociales, cette thèse repose sur le postulat que les individus forment des croyances sur un conflit au travers de leurs expériences personnelles de victimisation, de leurs expériences de guerre lorsque celle-ci se déroule près d'eux, ainsi qu'au travers des récits relayés par les mass media. Quatre études testent l'hypothèse que les croyances des individus dépendent des niveaux et des types d'expériences de guerre auxquels ils ont été exposés, c'est-à-dire, des contextes informatifs et normatifs, micro et macro dans lesquels ils sont insérés. Ces études ont été réalisées dans le contexte des guerres qui, entre 1991 et 2001, ont suivi la dissolution de la Yougoslavie et durant lesquelles de nombreuses atrocités de guerre ont été commises, causant une victimisation massive de la population. Afin d'étudier le contenu et l'impact des expériences de guerre sur chaque niveau d'analyse, différentes stratégies méthodologiques ont été utilisées, des analyses quantitatives sur une enquête représentative d'opinion publique aux analyses qualitatives de contenu de médias et de discours politiques. L'étude 1 étudie l'impact des expériences de guerre individuelles et régionales sur l'acceptation et l'attribution de la culpabilité collective par les individus. Elle examine aussi l'impact du type de victimisation régionale : exposition à la violence symétrique (i.e., violence qui touche les membres de différents groupes ethniques, y compris les adversaires) et asymétrique. L'étude 2 se penche sur les circonstances structurelles et politiques qui augmentent l'attribution de culpabilité collective. Alors que les recherches précédentes ont mis l'accent sur le rôle de la victimisation passée, l'étude 2 teste l'hypothèse que la stratégie de démobilisation politique utilisée par les élites pour faire face à l'insatisfaction publique peut encourager l'attribution de la culpabilité à l'exogroupe. Les études 3 et 4 étudient, principalement dans le contexte croate, la construction rhétorique du récit de guerre politisé dominant (étude 3) et son entretien à travers la délégitimation publique des représentations alternatives (critiques] (étude 4). L'étude 4 examine aussi la probabilité qu'ont les membres de groupe fortement identifiés d'adhérer à des points de vue sur la guerre critiques et publiquement délégitimés.

Mujer y trabajo: el opting-out (abandono de la carrera profesional)

L’objectiu d’aquest treball és definir el nou fenomen de l’opting out i la situació de la dona davant el mateix; així com, descriure la relació que hi ha entre la societat, la dona, la família i el mercat laboral. En primer lloc, es desenvolupa el context de la dona dins la nostra societat i el mercat laboral. Seguidament, es defineix l’opting out o abandonament professional i es revela el que està succeint entorn d’aquest tema, mitjançant l’ús d’alguns estudis que s’han dut a terme. En tercer lloc, s’assenyalen les causes més rellevants d’aquest abandonament professional de les dones i, per últim, es descriuen les repercussions més significatives que pateixen degut a aquest fenomen.