954 resultados para Temperatures and wind


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Whereas many studies have addressed the mechanisms driving partial migration, few have focused on the consequences of partial migration on trophic dynamics, and integrated studies combining the two approaches are virtually nonexistent. Here we show that temperature affects seasonal partial migration of cyprinid fish from lakes to predation refuges in streams during winter and that this migration in combination with temperature affects the characteristics and phenology of lower trophic levels in the lake ecosystem. Specifically, our six-year study showed that the proportion of fish migrating was positively related to lake temperature during the pre-migration growth period, i.e. during summer. Migration from the lake occurred later when autumn water temperatures were high, and timing of return migration to the lake occurred earlier at higher spring water temperatures. Moreover, the winter mean size of zooplankton in the lake increased with the proportion of fish being away from the lake, likely as a consequence of decreased predation pressure. Peak biomass of phytoplankton in spring occurred earlier at higher spring water temperatures and with less fish being away from the lake. Accordingly, peak zooplankton biomass occurred earlier at higher spring water temperature, but relatively later if less fish were away from the lake. Hence, the time between phyto- and zooplankton peaks depended only on the amount of fish being away from the lake, and not on temperature. The intensity of fish migration thereby had a major effect on plankton spring dynamics. These results significantly contribute to our understanding of the interplay between partial migration and trophic dynamics, and suggest that ongoing climate change may significantly affect such dynamics.

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Northwestern North America has one of the highest rates of recent temperature increase in the world, but the putative “divergence problem” in dendroclimatology potentially limits the ability of tree-ring proxy data at high latitudes to provide long-term context for current anthropogenic change. Here, summer temperatures are reconstructed from a Picea glauca maximum latewood density (MXD) chronology that shows a stable relationship to regional temperatures and spans most of the last millennium at the Firth River in northeastern Alaska. The warmest epoch in the last nine centuries is estimated to have occurred during the late twentieth century, with average temperatures over the last 30 yr of the reconstruction developed for this study [1973–2002 in the Common Era (CE)] approximately 1.3° ± 0.4°C warmer than the long-term preindustrial mean (1100–1850 CE), a change associated with rapid increases in greenhouse gases. Prior to the late twentieth century, multidecadal temperature fluctuations covary broadly with changes in natural radiative forcing. The findings presented here emphasize that tree-ring proxies can provide reliable indicators of temperature variability even in a rapidly warming climate.

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Polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) in air particulate matter contribute considerably to the health risk of air pollution. The objectives of this study were to assess the occurrence and variation in concentrations and sources of PM2.5-bound PACs [Oxygenated PAHs (OPAHs), nitro-PAHs and parent-PAHs] sampled from the atmosphere of a typical Chinese megacity (Xi'an), to study the influence of meteorological conditions on PACs and to estimate the lifetime excess cancer risk to the residents of Xi'an (from inhalation of PM2.5-bound PACs). To achieve these objectives, we sampled 24-h PM2.5 aerosols (once in every 6 days, from 5 July 2008 to 8 August 2009) from the atmosphere of Xi'an and measured the concentrations of PACs in them. The PM2.5-bound concentrations of Σcarbonyl-OPAHs, ∑ hydroxyl + carboxyl-OPAHs, Σnitro-PAHs and Σalkyl + parent-PAHs ranged between 5–22, 0.2–13, 0.3–7, and 7–387 ng m− 3, respectively, being markedly higher than in most western cities. This represented a range of 0.01–0.4% and 0.002–0.06% of the mass of organic C in PM2.5 and the total mass of PM2.5, respectively. The sums of the concentrations of each compound group had winter-to-summer ratios ranging from 3 to 8 and most individual OPAHs and nitro-PAHs had higher concentrations in winter than in summer, suggesting a dominant influence of emissions from household heating and winter meteorological conditions. Ambient temperature, air pressure, and wind speed explained a large part of the temporal variation in PACs concentrations. The lifetime excess cancer risk from inhalation (attributable to selected PAHs and nitro-PAHs) was six fold higher in winter (averaging 1450 persons per million residents of Xi'an) than in summer. Our results call for the development of emission control measures.

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We investigate causes of the stratigraphic variation revealed in a 177 km, 400 MHz short-pulse radar profile of firn from West Antarctica. The profile covers 56 m depth, and its direction was close to those of the ice flow and mean wind. The average, near-surface accumulation rates calculated from the time delays of one radar horizon consistently show minima on leeward slopes and maxima on windward slopes, confirming an earlier study based on stake observations. The stratigraphic variation includes up to 30 m depth variation in individual horizons over tens of km, fold limbs that become progressively steeper with depth, and fold-hinge loci that change direction or propagate down-ice with depth over distances far less than predicted by the ice speeds. We use an accumulation rate model to show how local rate anomalies and the effect of ice speed upon a periodic variation in accumulation rate cause these phenomena, and we reproduce two key features seen in the stratigraphic variations. We conclude that the model provides an explanation of changes in spatial stratigraphy and local measures of accumulation history given the constraints of surface topography, ice and wind velocities, and a general accumulation rate for an area.

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Oxygen-isotope variations were analyzed on bulk samples of shallow-water lake marl from Gerzensee, Switzerland, in order to evaluate major and minor climatic oscillations during the late-glacial. To highlight the overall signature of the Gerzensee δ18O record, δ18O records of four parallel sediment cores were first correlated by synchronizing major isotope shifts and pollen abundances. Then the records were stacked with a weighting depending on the differing sampling resolution. To develop a precise chronology, the δ18O-stack was then correlated with the NGRIP δ18O record applying a Monte Carlo simulation, relying on the assumption that the shifts in δ18O were climate-driven and synchronous in both archives. The established chronology on the GICC05 time scale is the basis for (1) comparing the δ18O changes recorded in Gerzensee with observed climatic and environmental fluctuations over the whole North Atlantic region, and (2) comparing sedimentological and biological changes during the rapid warming with smaller climatic variations during the Bølling/Allerød period. The δ18O record of Gerzensee is characterized by two major isotope shifts at the onset and at the termination of the Bølling/Allerød warm period, as well as four intervening negative shifts labeled GI-1e2, d, c2, and b, which show a shift of one third to one fourth of the major δ18O shifts at the beginning and end of the Bølling/Allerød. Despite some inconsistency in terminology, these oscillations can be observed in various climatic proxies over wide regions in the North Atlantic region, especially in reconstructed colder temperatures, and they seem to be caused by hemispheric climatic variations.

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Using US National Centers for Environmental Prediction/US National Center for Atmospheric Research re-analysis data, we investigate the relationships between crustal ion (nssCa(2+)) concentrations from three West Antarctic ice cores, namely, Siple Dome (SD), ITASE00-1 (IT001) and ITASE01-5 (IT015), and primary components of the climate system, namely, air pressure/geopotential height, zonal (u) and meridional (v) wind strength. Linear correlation analyses between nssCa(2+) concentrations and both air-pressure and wind fields for the period of overlap between records indicate that the SD nssCa(2+) variation is positively correlated with spring circumpolar zonal wind, while IT001 nssCa(2+) has a positive correlation with circumpolar zonal wind throughout the year (r > 0.3, p < 0.01). Intensified Southern Westerlies circulation is conducive to transport of more crustal aerosols to both sites. Further correlation analyses between nssCa(2+) concentrations from SD and IT001 and atmospheric circulation suggest that the high inland plateau (represented by core IT001) is largely influenced by transport from the upper troposphere. IT015 nssCa(2+) is negatively correlated with westerly wind in October and November, suggesting that stronger westerly circulation may weaken the transport of crustal species to IT015. Correlations of nssCa(2+) from the three ice cores with the Antarctic Oscillation index are consistent with results developed from the wind-field investigation. In addition, calibration between nssCa(2+) concentration and the multivariate El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index shows that crustal species transport to IT001 is enhanced during strong ENSO events.

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The evolution of oceanographic conditions in the upwelling region off northern Chile (18 degrees-24 degrees S) between 1996 and 1998 (including the 1997-1998 El Niño) is presented using hydrographic measurements acquired on quarterly cruises of the Chilean Fisheries Institute, with sea surface temperature (SST), sea level, and wind speeds from Arica (18.5 degrees S), Iquique (20.5 degrees S), and Antofagasta (23.5 degrees S) and a time series of vertical temperature profiles off Iquique. Spatial patterns of sea surface temperature and salinity from May 1996 to March 1997 followed a normal seasonal progression, though conditions were anomalously cool and fresh. Starting in March 1997, positive anomalies in sea level and sea surface temperature propagated along the South American coast to 37 degrees S. Maximum sea level anomalies occurred in two peaks in May-July 1997 and October 1997 to February 1998, separated by a relaxation period. Maximum anomalies (2 degrees C and 0.1 practical salinity units (psu)) extended to 400 m in December 1997 within 50 km of the coast. March 1998 presented the largest surface anomalies (> 4 degrees C and 0.6 psu). Strong poleward flow (20-35 cm s(-1) ) occurred to 400 m or deeper during both sea level maxima and weaker (10 cm s(-1) ) equatorward flow followed each peak. By May 1998, SST had returned to the climatological mean, and flow was equatorward next to the coast. However, offshore salinity remained anomalously high owing to a tongue of subtropical water extending southeast along the Peruvian coast. Conditions off northern Chile returned to normal between August and December 1998. The timing of the anomalies suggests a connection to equatorial waves. The progression of the 1997-1998 El Niño was very similar to that of 1982-1983, though with different timing with respect to seasons.

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Kelp forests are phyletically diverse, structurally complex and highly productive components of cold-water rocky marine coastlines. This paper reviews the conditions in which kelp forests develop globally and where, why and at what rate they become deforested. The ecology and long archaeological history of kelp forests are examined through case studies from southern California, the Aleutian Islands and the western North Atlantic, well-studied locations that represent the widest possible range in kelp forest biodiversity. Global distribution of kelp forests is physiologically constrained by light at high latitudes and by nutrients, warm temperatures and other macrophytes at low latitudes. Within mid-latitude belts (roughly 40-60degrees latitude in both hemispheres) well-developed kelp forests are most threatened by herbivory, usually from sea urchins. Overfishing and extirpation of highly valued vertebrate apex predators often triggered herbivore population increases, leading to widespread kelp deforestation. Such deforestations have the most profound and lasting impacts on species-depauperate systems, such as those in Alaska and the western North Atlantic. Globally urchin-induced deforestation has been increasing over the past 2-3 decades. Continued fishing down of coastal food webs has resulted in shifting harvesting targets from apex predators to their invertebrate prey, including kelp-grazing herbivores. The recent global expansion of sea urchin harvesting has led to the widespread extirpation of this herbivore, and kelp forests have returned in some locations but, for the first time, these forests are devoid of vertebrate apex predators. In the western North Atlantic, large predatory crabs have recently filled this void and they have become the new apex predator in this system. Similar shifts from fish- to crab-dominance may have occurred in coastal zones of the United Kingdom and Japan, where large predatory finfish were extirpated long ago. Three North American case studies of kelp forests were examined to determine their long history with humans and project the status of future kelp forests to the year 2025. Fishing impacts on kelp forest systems have been both profound and much longer in duration than previously thought. Archaeological data suggest that coastal peoples exploited kelp forest organisms for thousands of years, occasionally resulting in localized losses of apex predators, outbreaks of sea urchin populations and probably small-scale deforestation. Over the past two centuries, commercial exploitation for export led to the extirpation of sea urchin predators, such as the sea otter in the North Pacific and predatory fishes like the cod in the North Atlantic. The largescale removal of predators for export markets increased sea urchin abundances and promoted the decline of kelp forests over vast areas. Despite southern California having one of the longest known associations with coastal kelp forests, widespread deforestation is rare. It is possible that functional redundancies among predators and herbivores make this most diverse system most stable. Such biodiverse kelp forests may also resist invasion from non-native species. In the species-depauperate western North Atlantic, introduced algal competitors carpet the benthos and threaten future kelp dominance. There, other non-native herbivores and predators have become established and dominant components of this system. Climate changes have had measurable impacts on kelp forest ecosystems and efforts to control the emission of greenhouse gasses should be a global priority. However, overfishing appears to be the greatest manageable threat to kelp forest ecosystems over the 2025 time horizon. Management should focus on minimizing fishing impacts and restoring populations of functionally important species in these systems.

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The causes of a greening trend detected in the Arctic using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are still poorly understood. Changes in NDVI are a result of multiple ecological and social factors that affect tundra net primary productivity. Here we use a 25 year time series of AVHRR-derived NDVI data (AVHRR: advanced very high resolution radiometer), climate analysis, a global geographic information database and ground-based studies to examine the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation greenness on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia. We assess the effects of climate change, gas-field development, reindeer grazing and permafrost degradation. In contrast to the case for Arctic North America, there has not been a significant trend in summer temperature or NDVI, and much of the pattern of NDVI in this region is due to disturbances. There has been a 37% change in early-summer coastal sea-ice concentration, a 4% increase in summer land temperatures and a 7% change in the average time-integrated NDVI over the length of the satellite observations. Gas-field infrastructure is not currently extensive enough to affect regional NDVI patterns. The effect of reindeer is difficult to quantitatively assess because of the lack of control areas where reindeer are excluded. Many of the greenest landscapes on the Yamal are associated with landslides and drainage networks that have resulted from ongoing rapid permafrost degradation. A warming climate and enhanced winter snow are likely to exacerbate positive feedbacks between climate and permafrost thawing. We present a diagram that summarizes the social and ecological factors that influence Arctic NDVI. The NDVI should be viewed as a powerful monitoring tool that integrates the cumulative effect of a multitude of factors affecting Arctic land-cover change.

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We estimate the effects of climatic changes, as predicted by six climate models, on lake surface temperatures on a global scale, using the lake surface equilibrium temperature as a proxy. We evaluate interactions between different forcing variables, the sensitivity of lake surface temperatures to these variables, as well as differences between climate zones. Lake surface equilibrium temperatures are predicted to increase by 70 to 85 % of the increase in air temperatures. On average, air temperature is the main driver for changes in lake surface temperatures, and its effect is reduced by ~10 % by changes in other meteorological variables. However, the contribution of these other variables to the variance is ~40 % of that of air temperature, and their effects can be important at specific locations. The warming increases the importance of longwave radiation and evaporation for the lake surface heat balance compared to shortwave radiation and convective heat fluxes. We discuss the consequences of our findings for the design and evaluation of different types of studies on climate change effects on lakes.

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The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the ranges of Hounsfield unit (HU) found in body fluids, putrefaction fluids, and blood on postmortem CT and how these ranges are affected by postmortem interval, temperatures, and CT beam energy. Body fluids, putrefaction fluids, and blood from a total of 53 corpses were analyzed to determine the ranges of HU values from postmortem CT images that were taken prior to autopsy. The fluids measured in CT images were obtained at autopsy and examined in terms of macroscopic and microscopic appearances. Body fluids and blood were also collected in plastic bottles, which were subjected to CT scans at different beam energies (80-130 kV) and at various fluid temperatures (4 to 40 °C). At a postmortem interval of 1 to 4 days, the ranges of HU values of the serous fluids (13-38 HU) and the nonsedimented blood (40-88 HU) did not overlap. In the sedimented blood, the upper serum layer exhibited HU value ranges that overlapped with those of the serous fluids. The putrefaction fluids exhibited a range of HU values between 80 and -130 HU. Elevated HU values were observed in fluids with accretive cell impurities. HU values decreased slightly with increasing temperature and CT beam energy. We concluded that serous fluids and blood in fresh corpses can be characterized and differentiated from each other based on HU value ranges. In contrast, body fluids in decomposed corpses cannot be differentiated by their HU value ranges. Different beam energies and corpse temperatures had only minor influences on HU value ranges and therefore should not be obstacles to the differentiation and characterization of body fluids and blood.

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South Tyrol is a region that has been often affected by various mountain hazards such as floods, flash floods, debris flows, rock falls, and snow avalanches. Furthermore, areas located in lower altitudes are often influenced by high temperatures and heat waves. Climate change is expected to influence the frequency, magnitude, and spatial extent of these natural phenomena. For this reason, local authorities and other stakeholders are in need of tools that can enable them to reduce the risk posed by these processes. In the present study, a variety of methods are applied at local level in different places in South Tyrol that aim at: (1) the assessment of future losses caused by the occurrence of debris flows by using a vulnerability curve, (2) the assessment of social vulnerability based on the risk awareness of the exposed people to floods, and (3) the assessment of spatial exposure and social vulnerability of the exposed population to heat waves. The results show that, in South Tyrol, the risk to a number of hazards can be reduced by: (1) improving documentation for past events in order to improve existing vulnerability curves and the assessment of future losses, (2) raising citizens' awareness and responsibility to improve coping capacity to floods, and (3) extending heat wave early warning systems to more low-lying areas of South Tyrol.

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Motivated by the reported dearth of debris discs around M stars, we use survival models to study the occurrence of planetesimal discs around them. These survival models describe a planetesimal disc with a small number of parameters, determine if it may survive a series of dynamical processes and compute the associated infrared excess. For the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) satellite, we demonstrate that the dearth of debris discs around M stars may be attributed to the small semimajor axes generally probed if either: (1) the dust grains behave like blackbodies emitting at a peak wavelength coincident with the observed one; (2) or the grains are hotter than predicted by their blackbody temperatures and emit at peak wavelengths that are shorter than the observed one. At these small distances from the M star, planetesimals are unlikely to survive or persist for time-scales of 300 Myr or longer if the disc is too massive. Conversely, our survival models allow for the existence of a large population of low-mass debris discs that are too faint to be detected with current instruments. We gain further confidence in our interpretation by demonstrating the ability to compute infrared excesses for Sun-like stars that are broadly consistent with reported values in the literature. However, our interpretation becomes less clear and large infrared excesses are allowed if only one of these scenarios holds: (3) the dust grains are hotter than blackbody and predominantly emit at the observed wavelength; (4) or are blackbody in nature and emit at peak wavelengths longer than the observed one. Both scenarios imply that the parent planetesimals reside at larger distances from the star than inferred if the dust grains behaved like blackbodies. In all scenarios, we show that the infrared excesses detected at 22 μm (via WISE) and 70 μm (via Spitzer) from AU Mic are easily reconciled with its young age (12 Myr). Conversely, the existence of the old debris disc (2–8 Gyr) from GJ 581 is due to the large semimajor axes probed by the Herschel PACS instrument. We elucidate the conditions under which stellar wind drag may be neglected when considering dust populations around M stars. The WISE satellite should be capable of detecting debris discs around young M stars with ages ∼10 Myr.

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Soft X-ray lasing across a Ni-like plasma gain-medium requires optimum electron temperature and density for attaining to the Ni-like ion stage and for population inversion in the View the MathML source3d94d1(J=0)→3d94p1(J=1) laser transition. Various scaling laws, function of operating parameters, were compared with respect to their predictions for optimum temperatures and densities. It is shown that the widely adopted local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) model underestimates the optimum plasma-lasing conditions. On the other hand, non-LTE models, especially when complemented with dielectronic recombination, provided accurate prediction of the optimum plasma-lasing conditions. It is further shown that, for targets with Z equal or greater than the rare-earth elements (e.g. Sm), the optimum electron density for plasma-lasing is not accessible for pump-pulses at View the MathML sourceλ=1ω=1μm. This observation explains a fundamental difficulty in saturating the wavelength of plasma-based X-ray lasers below 6.8 nm, unless using 2ω2ω pumping.

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Past agricultural responses to climate variability can helps us to better understand the current and future impacts of climate change on agricultural production. We studied rye (Secale cereale) and barley (Hordeum vulgare) yield responses to temperature fluctuations in Finland during the period 1861–1913. Our analyses demonstrate the high sensitivity of non-industrialised northern agriculture to temperature anomalies. We found evidence of a strong relationship between monthly and seasonal mean temperatures and crop yields. In particular, high spring temperatures were associated with higher yields. Additionally, we tested temperature-sensitive tree-ring series for their value in indicating previous agricultural outputs. The results imply that tree-ring proxies (in particular, maximum latewood density) can provide novel material for studies of historical periods and locations where instrumentally measured climate and harvest data are not available.