Az erősödő állami szerepvállalás értékelése a magyarországi elektronikus hírközlő hálózati fejlesztésekben (Evaluation of the increasingstate’s rolein the electronic communications network development in Hungary)

Az elektronikus hírközlő hálózat rohamszerű fejlesztésének igénye az elektronikus szolgáltatások széles körű elterjedésével az állami döntéshozókat is fejlesztéspolitikai koncepciók kidolgozására és azok végrehajtására ösztönzi. Az (információs) társadalom fejlődése és az ennek alapjául szolgáló infokommunikációs szolgáltatások használata alapvetően függ a szélessávú infrastruktúra fejlesztésétől, az elektronikus hírközlő hálózat elérésének lehetőségétől. Az állami szerepvállalási hajlandóság 2011-től kezdődően jelentősen megnőtt az elektronikus hírközlési területen. Az MVM NET Zrt. megalapítása, a NISZ Zrt. átszervezése, a GOP 3.1.2-es pályázat és a 4. mobilszolgáltató létrehozásának terve mind mutatják a kormányzat erőteljes szándékát a terület fejlesztésére. A tanulmányban bemutatásra kerül, hogy az állam milyen beavatkozási eszközökkel rendelkezik az elektronikus hírközlő hálózat fejlesztésének ösztönzésére. A szerző ezt követően a négy, jelentős állami beavatkozás elemzését végzi el annak vizsgálatára, hogy megfelelő alapozottsággal született-e döntés az állami szerepvállalásról. _____ With the widespread use of the Internet, the need for the rapid development of the digital communication networks has prompted government policy makers also to conceptualize and implement development policy. The advancement of the (information) society and the use of information communication technology as a prerequisite of it are fundamentally determined by the development of broadband infrastructure and whether broadband access to the digital telecommunication network is available. The propensity of the government to play a bigger role in the field of electronical communication has increased significantly from 2011. The setup of MVM NET Zrt. / Hungarian Electricity NET Ltd./, the realignment of NISZ Zrt. / National Info communication Services Company Limited by Shares - NISZ Ltd./, the GOP 3.1.2. tender and the plan to enable a new, i.e. the fourth mobile network operator to enter the market all indicate the robust intention of the government to develop this field. The study shows the tools of government intervention for the incentive of the development of the electronical communication network. Then the author analyses the four main government interventions to examine whether the decision on the role of the state was adequately well-founded.

E-learning Skill and Use in EU Countries – A Statistical Analysis

The article investigates the division between member states of the European Union considering the aspect of their level of information and communication technology (ICT) development focusing on e-learning. With the help of discriminant analysis the countries are categorized into groups based on their ICT maturity and e-learning literacy level of development. Making a comparison with a benchmarking tool, the ITU (International Telecommunication Union)’s ICT Development Index (IDI) the results are confirmed partly correct. The article tries to find economical explanations for the re-grouping of the countries ranking. Finally the author examines the reliability of Hungary’s ranking results and the factors which may affect this divergence from the real picture.

The importance of social embeddedness

This article argues the importance of social embeddedness at mobile providers by examining the effects of customers’ network topological properties on churn probability—the probability of a customer switching from one telecommunication provider to another. This article uses data from regional snowball sampling—the only practically feasible network sampling method—to identify groups with significantly different churn ratios for customers with different network topological properties. Clear evidence indicates that individual network characteristics (node-level metrics) have considerable impact on churn probabilities. The inclusion of network-related measures in the churn model allows a longer-term projection of churners and improves the predictive power of the model.With no possibility to carry out repeated sampling, sample stability was checked through simulation results. On the one hand, this article highlights the importance and effectiveness of the provider’s tailored marketing campaigns by showing that customers targeted by direct marketing campaigns are less threatened by churn than nontargeted customers. On the other, this article shows that social embeddedness blocks the impact of the very samemarketing efforts. This article forwards the idea that social embeddedness, also prevalent in vendor switching, can be extended to understanding the development of professional societies threatened by membership churn.

Traffic congestion control in communication networks

Next generation networks are characterized by ever increasing complexity, intelligence, heterogeneous technologies and increasing user expectations. Telecommunication networks in particular have become truly global, consisting of a variety of national and regional networks, both wired and wireless. Consequently, the management of telecommunication networks is becoming increasingly complex. In addition, network security and reliability requirements require additional overheads which increase the size of the data records. This in turn causes acute network traffic congestions. There is no single network management methodology to control the various requirements of today's networks, and provides a good level of Quality of Service (QoS), and network security. Therefore, an integrated approach is needed in which a combination of methodologies can provide solutions and answers to network events (which cause severe congestions and compromise the quality of service and security). The proposed solution focused on a systematic approach to design a network management system based upon the recent advances in the mobile agent technologies. This solution has provided a new traffic management system for telecommunication networks that is capable of (1) reducing the network traffic load (thus reducing traffic congestion), (2) overcoming existing network latency, (3) adapting dynamically to the traffic load of the system, (4) operating in heterogeneous environments with improved security, and (5) having robust and fault tolerance behavior. This solution has solved several key challenges in the development of network management for telecommunication networks using mobile agents. We have designed several types of agents, whose interactions will allow performing some complex management actions, and integrating them. Our solution is decentralized to eliminate excessive bandwidth usage and at the same time has extended the capabilities of the Simple Network Management Protocol (SNMP). Our solution is fully compatible with the existing standards.

A study of stock market fluctuations and their relation to business conditions

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubblelike deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the nonfundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

A thermally wavelength-tunable photonic switch based on silicon microring resonator

Silicon photonics is a very promising technology for future low-cost high-bandwidth optical telecommunication applications down to the chip level. This is due to the high degree of integration, high optical bandwidth and large speed coupled with the development of a wide range of integrated optical functions. Silicon-based microring resonators are a key building block that can be used to realize many optical functions such as switching, multiplexing, demultiplaxing and detection of optical wave. The ability to tune the resonances of the microring resonators is highly desirable in many of their applications. In this work, the study and application of a thermally wavelength-tunable photonic switch based on silicon microring resonator is presented. Devices with 10μm diameter were systematically studied and used in the design. Its resonance wavelength was tuned by thermally induced refractive index change using a designed local micro-heater. While thermo-optic tuning has moderate speed compared with electro-optic and all-optic tuning, with silicon’s high thermo-optic coefficient, a much wider wavelength tunable range can be realized. The device design was verified and optimized by optical and thermal simulations. The fabrication and characterization of the device was also implemented. The microring resonator has a measured FSR of ∼18 nm, FWHM in the range 0.1-0.2 nm and Q around 10,000. A wide tunable range (>6.4 nm) was achieved with the switch, which enables dense wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) with a channel space of 0.2nm. The time response of the switch was tested on the order of 10 μs with a low power consumption of ∼11.9mW/nm. The measured results are in agreement with the simulations. Important applications using the tunable photonic switch were demonstrated in this work. 1×4 and 4×4 reconfigurable photonic switch were implemented by using multiple switches with a common bus waveguide. The results suggest the feasibility of on-chip DWDM for the development of large-scale integrated photonics. Using the tunable switch for output wavelength control, a fiber laser was demonstrated with Erbium-doped fiber amplifier as the gain media. For the first time, this approach integrated on-chip silicon photonic wavelength control.

Realization of Differentiated Quality of Service for Wideband Code Division Multiple Access Core Network

The development of 3G (the 3rd generation telecommunication) value-added services brings higher requirements of Quality of Service (QoS). Wideband Code Division Multiple Access (WCDMA) is one of three 3G standards, and enhancement of QoS for WCDMA Core Network (CN) becomes more and more important for users and carriers. The dissertation focuses on enhancement of QoS for WCDMA CN. The purpose is to realize the DiffServ (Differentiated Services) model of QoS for WCDMA CN. Based on the parallelism characteristic of Network Processors (NPs), the NP programming model is classified as Pool of Threads (POTs) and Hyper Task Chaining (HTC). In this study, an integrated programming model that combines both of the two models was designed. This model has highly efficient and flexible features, and also solves the problems of sharing conflicts and packet ordering. We used this model as the programming model to realize DiffServ QoS for WCDMA CN. ^ The realization mechanism of the DiffServ model mainly consists of buffer management, packet scheduling and packet classification algorithms based on NPs. First, we proposed an adaptive buffer management algorithm called Packet Adaptive Fair Dropping (PAFD), which takes into consideration of both fairness and throughput, and has smooth service curves. Then, an improved packet scheduling algorithm called Priority-based Weighted Fair Queuing (PWFQ) was introduced to ensure the fairness of packet scheduling and reduce queue time of data packets. At the same time, the delay and jitter are also maintained in a small range. Thirdly, a multi-dimensional packet classification algorithm called Classification Based on Network Processors (CBNPs) was designed. It effectively reduces the memory access and storage space, and provides less time and space complexity. ^ Lastly, an integrated hardware and software system of the DiffServ model of QoS for WCDMA CN was proposed. It was implemented on the NP IXP2400. According to the corresponding experiment results, the proposed system significantly enhanced QoS for WCDMA CN. It extensively improves consistent response time, display distortion and sound image synchronization, and thus increases network efficiency and saves network resource.^

Factors Affecting the Adoption of New Technology: the case of 311 Government Call Centers

Government call centers (311) were first created to reduce the volume of non-emergency calls that were being placed to emergency 911 call centers. The number of 311 call centers increased from 57 in 2008 to about 300 in 2013. Considering that there are over 2,700 municipal government units across the United States, the adoption rate of the 311 centers is arguably low in the country. This dissertation is an examination of the adoption of 311 call centers by municipal governments. My focus is specifically on why municipal governments adopt 311 and identifying which barriers result in the non-adoption of 311 call centers. This dissertation is possibly the first study to examine the adoption of 311 call centers in the United States. The dissertation study has identified several significant factors in the adoption and non-adoption of 311 government call centers. The following factors were significant in the adoption of 311 government call centers: managerial support, financial constraints, organizational responsiveness, strategic plan placement, and technology champion. The following factors were significant barriers that resulted in the non-adoption of a 311 government call center; no demand from citizens, start up costs, annual operating costs, unavailability of funding, and no obvious need for one.If local government entities that do not have a 311 government call center decide to adopt one, this study will help them identify the conditions that need to be in place for successful adoption to occur. Local government officials would first need to address the barriers in setting up the 311 call centers.

A Study of Stock Market Fluctuations and their Relations to Business Conditions

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubble-like deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the non-fundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

A Thermally Wavelength-tunable Photonic Switch Based on Silicon Microring Resonator

Silicon photonics is a very promising technology for future low-cost high-bandwidth optical telecommunication applications down to the chip level. This is due to the high degree of integration, high optical bandwidth and large speed coupled with the development of a wide range of integrated optical functions. Silicon-based microring resonators are a key building block that can be used to realize many optical functions such as switching, multiplexing, demultiplaxing and detection of optical wave. The ability to tune the resonances of the microring resonators is highly desirable in many of their applications. In this work, the study and application of a thermally wavelength-tunable photonic switch based on silicon microring resonator is presented. Devices with 10µm diameter were systematically studied and used in the design. Its resonance wavelength was tuned by thermally induced refractive index change using a designed local micro-heater. While thermo-optic tuning has moderate speed compared with electro-optic and all-optic tuning, with silicon’s high thermo-optic coefficient, a much wider wavelength tunable range can be realized. The device design was verified and optimized by optical and thermal simulations. The fabrication and characterization of the device was also implemented. The microring resonator has a measured FSR of ~18 nm, FWHM in the range 0.1-0.2 nm and Q around 10,000. A wide tunable range (>6.4 nm) was achieved with the switch, which enables dense wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) with a channel space of 0.2nm. The time response of the switch was tested on the order of 10 us with a low power consumption of ~11.9mW/nm. The measured results are in agreement with the simulations. Important applications using the tunable photonic switch were demonstrated in this work. 1×4 and 4×4 reconfigurable photonic switch were implemented by using multiple switches with a common bus waveguide. The results suggest the feasibility of on-chip DWDM for the development of large-scale integrated photonics. Using the tunable switch for output wavelength control, a fiber laser was demonstrated with Erbium-doped fiber amplifier as the gain media. For the first time, this approach integrated on-chip silicon photonic wavelength control.

Análise de superfícies seletivas em frequência com geometria multifractal

Frequency Selective surfaces are increasingly common structures in telecommunication systems due to their geometric and electromagnetic advantages. As a matter of fact, the frequency selective surfaces with fractal geometry type would allow an even bigger reduction of the electrical length which provided greater flexibility in the design of these structures. In this work, we investigated the use of multifractal geometry in frequency selective surfaces. Three structures with different multifractal geometries have been proposed and analyzed. The first structure allowed the design of multiband structures with greater flexibility in controlling the resonant frequencies and bandwidth. The second structure provided a bandwidth increase even with the rising of the fractal level. The third structure showed response with angle stability, dual polarization and provided room for a bandwidth increase with the rising of the structural multifractality. Furthermore, the proposed structures increased the degree of freedom in the multiband designs because they have multiple resonant frequencies ratios between adjacent bands and are easy to deploy. The validation of the proposed structures was initially verified through simulations in Ansoft Designer software and then the structures were constructed and the experimental results obtained

Caracterização de superfícies seletivas de frequência de periódicas e não-periódicas

The past years have seen a great interest in the use of frequency selective surfaces (FSS), as spatial filters, in many microwave applications. Among these, we highlight applications in telecommunication systems (such as satellite communications and radar), high gain antennas (combined with planar antennas) and (home and industrial) microwave ovens. The FSS is usually composed of two-dimensional periodic arrays, with equally spaced elements, which may be metallic patches (printed on dielectric substrates) or aperture (holes in thin metal surfaces). Using periodic arrays, the FSS have been able to meet the demands of the telecommunications industry. However, new demands are finding technological limitations. In this context, adverse filtering requirements have forced designers to use FSS optimization methods to find specific formats of FSS elements. Another alternative that has been used to increase the selectivity of the FSS is the cascaded FSS, a simple technique that has as main drawback the increased dimensions of the structure, as well as its weight. This work proposes the development of a new class of selective surfaces frequency (FSS) composed of quasi-periodic (or non-periodic) arrangements. The proposed FSS have no array periodicity, in relation with the spatial position of their elements. The frequency responses of these structures were simulated using commercial softwares that implement full-wave methods. For the purpose of validation of this study, FSS prototypes were built and measured, being possible to observe a good agreement between simulated and measured results. The main conclusions of this work are presented, as well as suggestions for future works.

Determinação da condutividade do solo para agricultura: uma metodologia utilizando propagação de ondas AM

Agriculture is an essential activity to the human development, the tendency is that their need to increase according to the increase in world population. It is very important to take the maximum performance that is possible of each land without degrading it, a frequently monitoring is essential for the best performance. The purpose of this work is, nondestructively, to monitor the surface electrical conductivity of the soil in a demarcated area, as on a plantation, using low frequency radio waves. The conductivity is directly linked to the amount of water in the area and nutrients, therefore a periodic or even permanent monitoring increases significantly the efficient of the use of the soil. They will be used long-wave radio transmission or medium whose main characteristic to spread over the surface of the earth. It is possible to choose an AM radio with location, frequency and power of the transmission known or generate the signal. The studied method computes the conductivity of the ground in a straight line between two measured points, so it can be used in smaller or larger size fields. Measurements were carried out using an electromagnetic field strength analyzer. The data obtained in the measurements are processed by a numerical calculation program, in our case Matlab. It is concluded that the recommendations of the ITU (International Telecommunication Union) on the conductivity of soil in Brazil is far from reality, on some routes the recommendations indicate the use of the electrical conductivity of the soil 1 mS/m, while the measurements was found 19 mS/m. With the method described a precision farmer, once initial research for about a year, can monitor the humidity and salinity of the land, with the ability to predict the area and the most suitable time for irrigation and fertilization, making management more efficient and less expensive, while optimizing water use, natural resource increasingly precious.

Teleconsultoria Off-line: uma arquitetura distribuída e compartilhada para sistemas heterogêneos

The Telehealth Brazil Networks Program, created in 2007 with the aim of strengthening primary care and the unified health system (SUS - Sistema Único de Saúde), uses information and communication technologies for distance learning activities related to health. The use of technology enables the interaction between health professionals and / or their patients, furthering the ability of Family Health Teams (FHT). The program is grounded in law, which determines a number of technologies, protocols and processes which guide the work of Telehealth nucleus in the provision of services to the population. Among these services is teleconsulting, which is registered consultation and held between workers, professionals and managers of healthcare through bidirectional telecommunication instruments, in order to answer questions about clinical procedures, health actions and questions on the dossier of work. With the expansion of the program in 2011, was possible to detect problems and challenges that cover virtually all nucleus at different scales for each region. Among these problems can list the heterogeneity of platforms, especially teleconsulting, and low internet coverage in the municipalities, mainly in the interior cities of Brazil. From this perspective, the aim of this paper is to propose a distributed architecture, using mobile computing to enable the sending of teleconsultation. This architecture works offline, so that when internet connection data will be synchronized with the server. This data will travel on compressed to reduce the need for high transmission rates. Any Telehealth Nucleus can use this architecture, through an external service, which will be coupled through a communication interface.

Greenow: um algoritmo de roteamento orientado a workspace para uma arquitetura de Internet do futuro

Current and future applications pose new requirements that Internet architecture is not able to satisfy, like Mobility, Multicast, Multihoming, Bandwidth Guarantee and so on. The Internet architecture has some limitations which do not allow all future requirements to be covered. New architectures were proposed considering these requirements when a communication is established. ETArch (Entity Title Architecture) is a new Internet architecture, clean slate, able to use application’s requirements on each communication, and flexible to work with several layers. The Routing has an important role on Internet, because it decides the best way to forward primitives through the network. In Future Internet, all requirements depend on the routing. Routing is responsible for deciding the best path and, in the future, a better route can consider Mobility aspects or Energy Consumption, for instance. In the dawn of ETArch, the Routing has not been defined. This work provides intra and inter-domain routing algorithms to be used in the ETArch. It is considered that the route should be defined completely before the data start to traffic, to ensure that the requirements are met. In the Internet, the Routing has two distinct functions: (i) run specific algorithms to define the best route; and (ii) to forward data primitives to the correct link. In traditional Internet architecture, the two Routing functions are performed in all routers everytime that a packet arrives. This work allows that the complete route is defined before the communication starts, like in the telecommunication systems. This work determined the Routing for ETArch and experiments were performed to demonstrate the control plane routing viability. The initial setup before a communication takes longer, then only forwarding of primitives is performed, saving processing time.