The Taylor rule under inquiry: Hidden states

This work empirically evaluates the Taylor rule for the US and Brazil using Markov-Switching Regimes. I find that the inflation parameter of the US Taylor rule is less than one in many periods, contrasting heavily with Clarida, Gal´ı and Gertler (2000), and the same happens with Brazilian data. When the inflation parameter is greater than one, it encompasses periods that these authors considered they should be less than one. Brazil is used for comparative purposes because it experienced a high level inflation until 1994 and then a major stabilization plan reduced the growth in prices to civilized levels. Thus, it is a natural laboratory to test theories designed to work in any environment. The findings point to a theoretical gap that deserves further investigation and show that monetary policy in Brazil has been ineffective, which is coherent with the general attitude of population in relation to this measure.

Taylor rule with hidden states

This work evaluates empirically the Taylor rule for the US and Brazil using Kalman Filter and Markov-Switching Regimes. We show that the parameters of the rule change significantly with variations in both output and output gap proxies, considering hidden variables and states. Such conclusions call naturally for robust optimal monetary rules. We also show that Brazil and US have very contrasting parameters, first because Brazil presents time-varying intercept, second because of the rigidity in the parameters of the Brazilian Taylor rule, regardless the output gap proxy, data frequency or sample data. Finally, we show that the long-run inflation parameter of the US Taylor rule is less than one in many periods, contrasting strongly with Orphanides (forthcoming) and Clarida, Gal´i and Gertler (2000), and the same happens with Brazilian monthly data.

In search of exchange rate predictability : a study about accuracy, consistency, and granger causality of forecasts generated by a Taylor Rule Model

Este estudo investiga o poder preditivo fora da amostra, um mês à frente, de um modelo baseado na regra de Taylor para previsão de taxas de câmbio. Revisamos trabalhos relevantes que concluem que modelos macroeconômicos podem explicar a taxa de câmbio de curto prazo. Também apresentamos estudos que são céticos em relação à capacidade de variáveis macroeconômicas preverem as variações cambiais. Para contribuir com o tema, este trabalho apresenta sua própria evidência através da implementação do modelo que demonstrou o melhor resultado preditivo descrito por Molodtsova e Papell (2009), o “symmetric Taylor rule model with heterogeneous coefficients, smoothing, and a constant”. Para isso, utilizamos uma amostra de 14 moedas em relação ao dólar norte-americano que permitiu a geração de previsões mensais fora da amostra de janeiro de 2000 até março de 2014. Assim como o critério adotado por Galimberti e Moura (2012), focamos em países que adotaram o regime de câmbio flutuante e metas de inflação, porém escolhemos moedas de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Os resultados da nossa pesquisa corroboram o estudo de Rogoff e Stavrakeva (2008), ao constatar que a conclusão da previsibilidade da taxa de câmbio depende do teste estatístico adotado, sendo necessária a adoção de testes robustos e rigorosos para adequada avaliação do modelo. Após constatar não ser possível afirmar que o modelo implementado provém previsões mais precisas do que as de um passeio aleatório, avaliamos se, pelo menos, o modelo é capaz de gerar previsões “racionais”, ou “consistentes”. Para isso, usamos o arcabouço teórico e instrumental definido e implementado por Cheung e Chinn (1998) e concluímos que as previsões oriundas do modelo de regra de Taylor são “inconsistentes”. Finalmente, realizamos testes de causalidade de Granger com o intuito de verificar se os valores defasados dos retornos previstos pelo modelo estrutural explicam os valores contemporâneos observados. Apuramos que o modelo fundamental é incapaz de antecipar os retornos realizados.

Taylor rule in Brazil

In this paper, we use the Taylor Rule to characterize empirically the Brazilian monetary policy before and after its major and succesful stabilization plan, Real Plan, launched in 1994. Specifically, we show how the inflation coefficient has changed after the stabilization plan was carried out. This is a natural experiment to test theories surrounding the Taylor Rule in which monetary instability is characterized by an inflation coefficient less than one, whereas monetary stability will have a greater than one coefficient (seeWoodford’s (2003)). Very suprisingly the paper shows that the inflation coefficient has remained less than one even after the stabilization. Our results are quite robust with respect to different samples, lags of variables, proxies for GDP, proxies for potential GDP and even with respect to econometric methods (see Bueno (2005a, 2005b)). The implications are very important both theoretically and empirically. First, it shows some gap in theory that deserves further investigation. Second, it suggests that the inflation targeting regime has been uneffective in Brazil confirming a feeling largerly spread among Brazilians.

Taylor rule in Brazil

In this paper, we use the Taylor Rule to characterize empirically the Brazilian monetary policy before and after its major and succesful stabilization plan, Real Plan, launched in 1994. Specifically, we show how the inflation coefficient has changed after the stabilization plan was carried out. This is a natural experiment to test theories surrounding the Taylor Rule in which monetary instability is characterized by an inflation coefficient less than one, whereas monetary stability will have a greater than one coefficient (seeWoodford’s (2003)). Very suprisingly the paper shows that the inflation coefficient has remained less than one even after the stabilization. Our results are quite robust with respect to different samples, lags of variables, proxies for GDP, proxies for potential GDP and even with respect to econometric methods (see Bueno (2005a, 2005b)). The implications are very important both theoretically and empirically. First, it shows some gap in theory that deserves further investigation. Second, it suggests that the inflation targeting regime has been uneffective in Brazil confirming a feeling largerly spread among Brazilians.

Analysis of the Priestley-Taylor alpha parameter for a bean crop

This work deals with the Priestley-Taylor model for evapotranspiration in different grown stages of a bean crop. Priestley and Taylor derived a practical Formulation for energy partitioning between the sensible and latent heat fluxes through the a parameter. Bowen ratio energy balance (BREB) was carried out for daily sensible and latent heat flux estimations in three different crop stages. Mean daily values of Priestley-Taylor a parameter were determined for eleven days during the crop cycle. Diurnal variation patterns of a are presented for the growing, flowering and graining periods. The mean values of 1.13 +/- 0.33, 1.26 +/- 0.74, 1.22 +/- 0.55 were obtained for a day in the growing, in the flowering and for graining periods, respectively. Eleven days values of a are shown and gave a mean value of 1.23 +/- 0.10 which agree on the reported literature.

Amostragem seqüencial com base na lei de Taylor para levantamento de Spodoptera frugiperda na cultura do milho

A lagarta do cartucho do milho é uma das principais pragas do milho nas Américas, podendo ocorrer durante todos os estágios de crescimento da cultura, causando perdas de 15 a 37% na produção. Neste trabalho estudou-se a distribuição espacial dessa praga no campo, com a finalidade de desenvolver um sistema de amostragem para estimar sua densidade populacional. Na área cultivada com milho foram selecionados 3 campos experimentais de 40 m x 250 m cada, divididos em 100 parcelas cada. Foram contados o número de lagartas pequenas e grandes de S. frugiperda nas folhas e no cartucho das plantas, em 10 plantas ao acaso por parcela, num total de 1000 plantas por campo, em 5, 5 e 4 datas de amostragem, respectivamente. Lagartas menores que 1 cm eram consideradas pequenas e lagartas maiores que 1 cm, grandes. Foram estimados os parâmetros da lei de Taylor, sendo as estimativas dos parâmetros das regressões altamente significativas para todas as categorias larvais. O parâmetro b da lei de Taylor para lagarta pequena foi igual a 1,57, indicando que a forma de distribuição dessa categoria larval é agregada. Para lagartas grandes o parâmetro b foi igual a 0,79, o que conduz a um tipo de distribuição tendendo para aleatoriedade. Para o número total de lagartas os resultados são equivalentes aos obtidos para lagartas pequenas. Foi desenvolvido um plano de amostragem seqüencial com base nos parâmetros da lei de Taylor.

NEW PHYTOSEIIDAE (ACARI: MESOSTIGMATA) FROM COSTA RICA, WITH ADDITIONAL INFORMATION on OTHER SPECIES

This paper reports on a study of phytoseiids collected from the La Selva Biological Field Station, the ALAS (Arthropods of La Selva) Project, made available to us by the Canadian National Collection via Dr. E. E. Lindquist. This material includes two new species, Proprioseiopsis versus n. sp. and Transeius costarricensis n. sp., three new records for Central America, and additional information for nine species previously reported from La Selva.

The amount of solar energy made available for the production of a sabia (Mimosa caesalpinaefolia Benth.) seed has a determinating effect on its becoming dormant

The amount of solar energy made available for the production of a sabid seed varied as a function of the time of the year, the face of the plant in which, the position in the plant on which and the position in the pod in which it was produced.Variation in solar energy availability as a consequence of the time of the year was a direct consequence of latitude. At 21degrees5'22 S the highest amounts of Global Solar Radiation (GSR) reaching the site where the experiment was conducted took place during the months from November through February. During these months there were no marked differences between any two of the amounts of GSR reaching faces North (N), South (S), West (W) East (E). From February through November (period during which the sabid plants of this study flowered and the resulting seeds matured and were harvested) the total GSR's were the lowest and marked differences were found between faces N and S, with face N receiving much more GSR than face S. During that period, faces W and E received practically the same amount of GSR and it was much less than that received by face N and much more than the one received by face S.The amount of biological energy made available for the development of a seed seemed also to vary according to a dry matter partitioning strategy by the plant -the central third of the plant seemed to be the one receiving the highest amounts of energy, followed either by the upper or the lower third of the plant- it was not very clear which third of the plant immediately followed the central one. The partitioning of biological energy at the pod level also seemed to follow a strategy by which the central seeds would be the ones to receive more, followed by the proximal seeds and these by the distal ones.This availability of energy seemed to have a direct effect on seed size, weight and on the percentage of seeds which showed a degree of dormancy deep enough to prevent their germinating under the conditions of a standard germination test.The implications of these results for the improvement of methods for the overcoming of dormancy of sabia seeds are discussed.

The adrenergic regulation of the cardiovascular system in the South American rattlesnake, Crotalus durissus

The present study investigates adrenergic regulation of the systemic and pulmonary circulations of the anaesthetised South American rattlesnake, Crotalus durissus. Haemodynamic measurements were made following bolus injections of adrenaline and adrenergic antagonists administered through a systemic arterial catheter. Adrenaline caused a marked systemic vasoconstriction that was abolished by phentolamine, indicating this response was mediated through alpha-adrenergic receptors. Injection of phentolamine gave rise to a pronounced vasodilatation (systemic conductance (G(sys)) more than doubled), while injection of propranolol caused a systemic vasoconstriction, pointing to a potent alpha-adrenergic, and a weaker beta-adrenergic tone in the systemic vasculature of Crotalus. Overall, the pulmonary vasculature was far less responsive to adrenergic stimulation than the systemic circulation. Adrenaline caused a small but non-significant pulmonary vasodilatation and there was tendency of reducing this dilatation after either phentolamine or propranolol. Injection of phentolamine increased pulmonary conductance (G(pul)), while injection of propranolol produced a small pulmonary constriction, indicating that alpha-adrenergic and beta-adrenergic receptors contribute to a basal regulation of the pulmonary vasculature. Our results suggest adrenergic regulation of the systemic vasculature, rather than the pultrionary, may be an important factor in the development of intracardiac shunts. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of harvested mushrooms and viability of Agaricus bisporus growth using casing materials made from spent mushroom substrate

P>The present work evaluates of harvested mushroom and viability of Agaricus bisporus growth in several casing materials based on spent mushroom substrate. The experiment consisted of eight casing layer, which six were made with spent mushroom substrate. The results confirm the usefulness of reincorporating the spent substrate in new cultivation cycles as an ingredient of casing mixtures. In general, biological efficiency was high, three of the SMS based-casings surpassing the threshold value of 100 kg 100 kg-1 of compost. The high electrical conductivity of mixtures containing a large proportion of spent substrate limits the extent to which it can be used, although mixing it with other materials (such as peat) reduces these values to acceptable levels. In short, it makes economic and environmental sense to reuse spent mushroom substrate as an ingredient of alternative casing materials.

Desgaste corrosivo-cavitativo-erosivo de um aço-carbono em meio aquoso com frações de sal (NaCl), CO2 e particulados sólidos (SiO2)

A batch of eighty-four coupons of low carbon steel were investigated at laboratory conditions under a corrosive, cavitative-corrosive (CO2) and corrosive-erosive (SiO2 + CO2) in an aqueous salt solution and two levels of temperature. The following measurements were made on Vickers (HV0,05, HV0,10, HV0,20) Microhardness tests at three levels of subsurface layer. A turbulent flow collided on the cylindrical sample, with and without mechanical stirring and gas bubbling, with and without fluid contamination by solid particles of SiO2, at two temperatures. Surface Roughness and Waviness, under two conditions "as received, after machining" and "after worn out", as well as gravimetric and electrochemical parameter were measured on the two opposite generatrices of each cylindrical sample, on the flow upstream (0°) and downstream (180°) by Profilometry, Mass Variation and Linear Polarization Resistance (LPR). The results of the Microhardness and Surface Texture of all coupons were subjected to statistical comparison, using the software Statgraphics® Centurion XVI, 95% statistical certainty, and significant differences were observed in some arrays of measurements. The corrosive wear rate measured by LPR and mass variation shown to be sensitive to the presence of bubbles and hydrodynamic fluctuations inside the cell, considering the temperature and contamination of corrosive fluid by solid particles. The main results of visual inspection relative to some topologies of the surface damages involving different mechanisms that were seen to give explanation for some fluctuations in wear rates of the steel experimentally investigated

Panels Produced from Thermoplastic Composites Reinforced with Peach Palm Fibers for Use in the Civil Construction and Furniture Industry

In order to cooperate in minimizing the problems of the current and growing volume of waste, this work aim at the production of panels made from industrial waste -thermoplastic (polypropylene; polyethylene and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene) reinforced with agro-industrial waste - peach palm waste (shells and sheaths). The properties of the panels like density, thickness swelling, water absorption and moisture content were evaluated using the ASTM D1037; EN 317; and ANSI A208.1 standards regarding particle boards. Good results were obtained with formulations of 100% plastic waste; 70% waste plastics and 30% peach palm waste; and 60% waste plastics and 40% peach palm waste.

A interpretação dos sintagmas nominais com adjetivos atributivos por alunos de inglês instrumental

This present work has as objective to analyze the interpretation of the syntactic and semantic meaning performed by third graders in the nominal groups (NGs) with attributive adjectives in the English language in a text of the final exam in the ESP (English for Specific Purposes) discipline. The corpus is made up of 30 exams of two classes from a third grade institution of the biomedical area, corresponding to the basic and advanced levels of the second term in 2006. The text has 24 NGs of different lexical content, a total of 27 NGs in the whole text summing up to 810 analyzed occurrences. The analysis is carried out at the morphologic, syntactic and semantic levels using as theoretical background the traditional and functional grammars (QUIRK et al, 1985; CELSE-MURCIA et al, 1998; TUCKER, 1998), in their semantic aspects, the Semantics (FRAWLEY, 1992) and the Cognitive Linguistics (TAYLOR, 2002). We concluded that the main difficulties were due to the lack of vocabulary and to the use of mother tongue strategies instead of using the top-down strategies for reading a text in English to compensate this gap. We also observed that even when the vocabulary was known, there were difficulties in establishing the semantic and syntactic relations between modifier and noun head. We suggested improvements for the teaching of reading English texts at the third grade grounded in the obtained results such as a more comprehensive study of the several different morphologic and syntactic structures of the NGs with premodifiers and their semantic consequences, an approach of the morphologic, syntactic and semantic aspects of the NGs and the use of both top-down and bottom-up strategies when reading a NG in the English language