Agreements and disputes over non-tariff measures

In trade agreements, governments can design remedies to ensure compliance (property rule) or to compensate victims (liability rule). This paper describes an economic framework to explain the pattern of remedies over non-tariff restrictions—particularly domestic subsidies and nonviolation complaints subject to liability rules. The key determinants of the contract form for any individual measure are the expected joint surplus from an agreement and the expected loss to the constrained government. The loss is higher for domestic subsidies and nonviolations because these are the policies most likely to correct domestic distortions. Governments choose property rules when expected gains from compliance are sufficiently high and expected losses to the constrained country are sufficiently low. Liability rules are preferable when dispute costs are relatively high, because inefficiencies in the compensation process reduce the number of socially inefficient disputes filed.

A comparison of test of non-linear cointegration with an application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure

We evaluate the forecasting performance of a number of systems models of US shortand long-term interest rates. Non-linearities, induding asymmetries in the adjustment to equilibrium, are shown to result in more accurate short horizon forecasts. We find that both long and short rates respond to disequilibria in the spread in certain circumstances, which would not be evident from linear representations or from single-equation analyses of the short-term interest rate.

Share bidding auctions, sliding scale royalty rates and the new brazilian regulatory framework for the pre-salt areas

O governo brasileiro recentemente aprovou uma legislação instituindo um novo marco regulatório para as reservas petrolíferas do pré-sal. Segundo as novas regras, estas áreas deverão ser licitadas mediante um leilão de partilha de lucro. Motivado por esta mudança, apresentamos um modelo de leilão de partilha sob afiliação, demonstrando a existência de um equilíbrio monótono em estratégias puras e caracterizando a solução. Alem disso, provamos que este mecanismo gera receita esperada maior ou igual a um leilão de primeiro preço usual. Em seguida, introduzimos no modelo uma função representando taxas de royalties que dependem do valor do objeto. Este instrumento permite uma elevação na receita esperada de ambos os modelos, fazendo com que a diferença entre eles encolha. Finalmente, analisando o novo marco regulatório sob o ponto de vista dos resultados obtidos, concluímos que o antigo modelo de concessão utilizado pelo governo brasileiro é mais adequado e lucrativo.

On the effects of non-tariff measures on Brazilian exports

This article proposes an alternative methodology for estimating the effects of non-tariff measures on trade flows, based on the recent literature on gravity models. A two-stage Heckman selection model is applied to the case of Brazilian exports, where the second stage gravity equation is theoretically grounded on the seminal Melitz model of heterogeneous firms. This extended gravity equation highlights the role played by zero trade flows as well as firm heterogeneity in explaining bilateral trade among countries, two factors usually omitted in traditional gravity specifications found in previous literature. Last, it also proposes a economic rationale for the effects of NTM on trade flows, helping to shed some light on its main operating channels under a rather simple Cournot’s duopolistic competition framework.

Implied Hazard Rates Analysis Through Brazilian Corporate Debt

No Brasil, o mercado de crédito corporativo ainda é sub-aproveitado. A maioria dos participantes não exploram e não operam no mercado secundário, especialmente no caso de debêntures. Apesar disso, há inúmeras ferramentas que poderiam ajudar os participantes do mercado a analisar o risco de crédito e encorajá-los a operar esses riscos no mercado secundário. Essa dissertação introduz um modelo livre de arbitragem que extrai a Perda Esperada Neutra ao Risco Implícita nos preços de mercado. É uma forma reduzida do modelo proposto por Duffie and Singleton (1999) e modela a estrutura a termo das taxas de juros através de uma Função Constante por Partes. Através do modelo, foi possível analisar a Curva de Perda Esperada Neutra ao Risco Implícita através dos diferentes instrumentos de emissores corporativos brasileiros, utilizando Títulos de Dívida, Swaps de Crédito e Debêntures. Foi possível comparar as diferentes curvas e decidir, em cada caso analisado, qual a melhor alternativa para se tomar o risco de crédito da empresa, via Títulos de Dívida, Debêntures ou Swaps de Crédito.

On the effects of non tariff measures on Brazilian exports

This article proposes an alternative methodology for estimating the effects of non-tariff measures on trade flows, based on the recent literature on gravity models. A two-stage Heckman selection model is applied to the case of Brazilian exports, where the second stage gravity equation is theoretically grounded on the seminal Melitz model of heterogeneous firms. This extended gravity equation highlights the role played by zero trade flows as well as firm heterogeneity in explaining bilateral trade among countries, two factors usually omitted in traditional gravity specifications found in previous literature. Last, it also proposes a economic rationale for the effects of NTM on trade flows, helping to shed some light on its main operating channels under a rather simple Cournot’s duopolistic competition framework

The distortion of currencies misalignments on trade Instruments: or why currencies wars are not over

The negotiations of mega agreements between the US and the Pacific countries (TPP) and between the US and the EU (TTIP) are raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. TPP and TTIP are proclaimed to be the designers of the rules for the XXI Century. Old trade instruments such as tariffs are said to be no more important for TTIP because tariffs are negligible among those partners but significant to for TPP. Another relevant agreement in negotiation is between the EU and Mercosul, where tariffs are the most important issue in discussion. The main purpose of this paper is to shows that tariff are important for all these agreements, not because of its nominal value, but because the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs are so significant that all concessions can be distorted by overvalued and by devaluated currencies. The article is divided into several sections: the first gives an introduction to the issue; the second explains the methodologies used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents some results for Brazil, US and China; the third summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of “misalignment tariffication” and examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a basket of currencies (a virtual currency of the World) and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The fifth presents some estimates for the main PTAs. The conclusions are present in the last section

EU-Mercosur trade relations: impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs

The issue of “trade and exchange rate misalignments” is being discussed at the G20, IMF and WTO, following an initiative by Brazil. The main purpose of this paper is to apply the methodology developed by the authors to exam the impacts of misalignment on tariffs in order to analyse the impacts of misalignments on the trade relations between two customs unions – the EU and Mercosur, as well as to explain how tariff barriers are affected. It is divided into several sections: the first summarises the debate on exchange rates at the WTO; the second explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments; the third and fourth summarises the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of ‘misalignment tariffication’; the fifth reviews the effects of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs and its consequences for the trade negotiations between the two areas; and the last concludes and suggests a way to move the debate forward in the context of regional arrangements

Trade regulation of exchange rates

O presente estudo busca analisar o quadro regulatório internacional referente a medidas cambiais que trazem impactos no comércio. O artigo pretende explorar como a questão do câmbio se relaciona à OMC e afeta seus instrumentos e princípios para, em seguida, buscar dispositivos nos Acordos da OMC que poderiam ser aplicados à questão cambial a fim de reequilibrar os impactos causados pelos desalinhamentos cambiais no comércio internacional

Trade rules and exchange rate misalignments : in search for a WTO solution e medidas compensatórias

The debate on the link between trade rules and rules on exchange rates is raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs as applied by the WTO – World Trade Organization. It is divided into five sections: the first one explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents its results for Brazil, US and China; the second summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of “misalignment tariffication”; the third examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth one creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a currency of the World and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The conclusions are present in the last section

Characterization of heat waves affecting mortality rates of broilers between 29 days and market age

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Infestation rates of the pedunculated barnacle Octolasmis lowei (Cirripedia: Poecilasmatidae) on the spider crab Libinia spinosa (Decapoda: Majoidea)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Ingestion rates of Artemia nauplii for different larval stages of Macrobrachium rosenbergii

The functional response between ingestion rate and food concentration was determined for each larval stage of Macrobrachium rosenbergii. Artemia franciscana nauplii were supplied at 2,4, 6, 8, 10 and 12 per milliliter. The nauplii were counted by sight using a Pasteur pipette and transferred to Petri dishes containing 40 ml of brackish water (12 parts per thousand) lying on the top of black plastic. One larva at each stage was individually placed into each Petri dish containing different food density. After 24 h, each larva was removed from the Petri dish and the leftover nauplii were counted. The amount consumed was determined by the difference between the initial and final number of nauplii. Ingestion rate (I) increased as food density (P) increased and was defined by the model I=I-m(1-e(-kP)). The results suggest four levels of ingestion during larval development. The first level includes stages II, III and IV, with average maximum consumption of about 40 nauplii/day; the second level includes stages V and VI, with consumption of approximately 55 nauplii/day; the third level includes stages VII and VIII, with consumption of 80-100 nauplii/day. The fourth level includes stages IX, X and XI, in which the high values for maximum ingestion (Im) exceed the load capacity of the medium. The low values for constant k (that may correspond to the adaptability of the food to prey characteristics, such as, size, mobility, etc.) obtained for stages IX, X and XI indicated that Artemia is not an adequate prey and there is necessity of a supplementary diet. The best relationship between predator and prey seemed to occur during stage IV Results obtained in the present work may subsidize future researches and serve as a guideline for practical considerations of feeding rates. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.